summary natural gas in the world – 2016 edition · 2018-09-09 · natural gas in the world –...

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas

Natural Gas In The World – 2016 Edition

CEDIGAZ, November 2016

SUMMARY

CEDIGAZ - More than 50 years of gas market intelligence

Founded in 1961, 90 members in 40 countries Databases (gas statistics, supply contracts, UGS, LNG) Annual surveys and thematic studies LNG Service, News (CEDIGAZ News Report)

WORLD UGS and LNG Storage June 2016

RECENT STUDIES

NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION

NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 2016 – SUMMARY

• Worldwide proven natural gas reserves declined by 1.8% to 196,229 bcm as of December 31,2015. • Reserves are highly concentrated, with the Middle East holding 40% of worldwide proven reserves,

followed by the CIS at 34%. OPEC countries control 47% of worldwide reserves and three countries (Russia, Iran and Qatar) account for 55% of global reserves.

• Worldwide marketed natural gas production grew by 1.6% to 3493 bcm (+ 53 bcm) in 2015. This growth rate is slightly higher than that of the previous year (+ 1.3%) but remained slower than the past ten-year average (+ 2.2%/year). Like in 2014, the moderation of gas supply growth in 2015 was mostly explained by demand-side factors.

• In 2015, world gross natural gas production increased at a lower rate than marketed production, up 1.3% to 4359 bcm.

• Quantities of reinjected gas decreased significantly by 3.6% in 2015, reaching 441 bcm. Global flaring and venting amounted to 134 bcm, up 2.1% from 2014. The shrinkage surged 5.7% to 292 bcm.

• In 2015, global unconventional gas production reached 781 bcm, of which 90% was sourced from North America.

• International natural gas trade (including LNG-re-exports) increased strongly by 3.1% to 1043 bcm in 2015, fuelled by both pipeline trade (+ 3.4%) and LNG flows (+ 2.4%).

• In 2015, the inability of natural gas demand to absorb the incremental available supply led to an imbalance on the international market and to a price weakness. International gas prices declined sharply in direct or indirect relation to falling prices of other fossil fuels.


NATURAL GAS RESERVES IN THE WORLD



Proved reserves by region

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

NORTH AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA

EUROPE

CIS

ASIA-OCEANIA

AFRICA

Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database

Unit: Bcm


Proved reserves by economic zone

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Other

OPEC

OECD

CIS

Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database Bcm


Regional share of proved natural gas reserves

40%

34%

8%

6% 6% 4% 2%

MIDDLE EAST

CIS

ASIA-OCEANIA

AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

EUROPE



Share of proved natural gas reserves by economic zone (31/12/2015)

47%

34%

10% 9%

OPEC

CIS

OECD

Other



Cumulated proved reserves growth since 2005

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NORTH AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST

LATIN AMERICA

EUROPE

CIS

ASIA-OCEANIA

AFRICA


Bcm


NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD



Evolution of marketed production of oil and natural gas in the world

Gtoe

Source : CEDIGAZ

The global Gas/Oil Production Ratio has slightly fallen in recent years as oil production growth, boosted by US tight oil plays, has surpassed that of natural gas.

In 2015, it declined one point to 72% as the production of oil increased faster than gas.


Evolution of the world balance of gas production

Source: CEDIGAZ

Evolution 1980 - 2015

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Other losses*

Flared & vented

Reinjection

Marketed production

Gas reinjected 10%

Gas flared and vented

3% Other losses (shrinkage)

7%

Marketed production

80%

* essentially resulting from the processing of natural gas before it enters the networks, purification and/or extraction of its liquefiable fractions (ethane, LPG, natural gasoline and condensates). This volume includes natural gas used in field and processing plant operations.

Bcm


793

23%

595

17%

952

27%

248

7%

206 6%

168 5%

532 15%

World Total = 3493 109 m3 Source: CEDIGAZ

Marketed natural gas production by region in 2015


Recent trends in marketed gas production by region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

North America C.I.S Middle East Asia Oceania Europe Africa Latin America

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bcm

Source: CEDIGAZ


Evolution of marketed production by geographic zone (1)

Source: CEDIGAZ

Evolution 2005 – 2015: + 2.2%/year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Latin America

Africa

Europe

Asia-Oceania

Middle East

CIS

North America

Bcm


Evolution of marketed production by economic zone

Source: CEDIGAZ

Evolution 2005 - 2015: + 2.2%/year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Other

OPEC

CIS

OECD

Bcm


Marketed production by country

Source: CEDIGAZ

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Uzbekistan

Abu-Dhabi

Australia

Malaysia

Indonesia

Algeria

Turkmenistan

Saudi Arabia

Norway

China

Canada

Qatar

Iran

Russia

United States

2015

2014

Top-15 natural gas producers

Bcm


UNCONVENTIONAL GAS IN THE WORLD



Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end-2015 Total resources (Tm3) : 784 Tm3

Conv. : 434 CBM : 50 Tight : 81 Shale gas : 218

Source: International Energy Agency (WEO 2016) based on BGR (2015), BP (2016), Cedigaz (2016), O&GJ (2015), US EIA/ARI (2013), EIA (2015), USGS, IEA databases

Americas

Latin America

E.Europe/Eurasia Europe

Middle East & Africa

Asia-Oceania


Role of unconventional gas in US marketed gas production

Source: CEDIGAZ Estimate, EIA

5%

1%

14% 18%

57%

5%

80%

Offshore Alaska Other Tight gas Shale gas Coalbed Methane

Total 2015 = 765 Bcm


INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS TRADE



Recent trends in international gas trade

Source: CEDIGAZ

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015

LNG - Inter LNG - Intra Inter - Pipeline Intra - Pipeline

2015 2014 2013

Bcm


The international gas scene in 2015


Regional importing markets Regional exporting markets

Net imports Net exports

Recent trends in interregional trade

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Europe Asia-Oceania North America

2013

2014

2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

CIS Middle East Africa Latin America

2013

2014

2015

Source: CEDIGAZ Unit: Bcm


International imports by region

44%

28%

13%

6%

4% 4% 1%

Europe

Asia Oceania

North America

CIS

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

43%

29%

13%

7%

4% 3% 1%

Europe

Asia Oceania

North America

CIS

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Total 2014 = 1012 Bcm Total 2015 = 1043 Bcm

Source: CEDIGAZ


International exports by region

26%

21%

16%

13%

12%

8% 4%

C.I.S.

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Oceania

North America

Africa

Latin America

25%

22%

15%

14%

12%

8% 4%

C.I.S.

Europe

Middle East

Asia-Oceania

North America

Africa

Latin America

Source: CEDIGAZ



Evolution of international gas trade: Pipeline versus LNG

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Pipeline LNG

From 1996, intra-CIS trade was included

Source: CEDIGAZ

Bcm


International natural gas flows by main country (1)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan Germany United States Italy

China Turkey France South Korea

United Kingdom Mexico

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Russia Qatar Norway Canada

United States Netherlands Algeria Turkmenistan

Australia Malaysia

International imports in the top-ten importing countries

International exports in the top-ten exporting countries

Source: CEDIGAZ Unit: Bcm


World LNG demand by zone

North America

4%

Europe 14%

Asian established markets*

58%

Asian emerging markets

17%

Middle East & Latin America

6%

North America

4%

Europe 15%

Asian established markets*

60%

Asian emerging markets

17%

Middle East & Latin America

9%

* Japan, South Korea & Taiwan


Source: CEDIGAZ


UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE IN THE WORLD



Evolution of global UGS Working Gas Capacity

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

WGC (bcm)

Ratio WGC/Gas consumption

Sources: Cedigaz UGS Database, Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database


Regional share of working gas capacity (Total 413 bcm)

38%

29%

27%

4% 2%

North America

C.I.S

Europe

Asia/Oceania

Middle East

Source: Cedigaz UGS Database


Working Gas Capacity by storage type

12%

80%

0% 8%

Aquifer

Depleted field

Rock Cavern

Salt Cavern

Source: Cedigaz UGS Database


NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD



Evolution of the world energy mix

Natural gas 21.3

Coal 27.8

Oil 32

Nuclear 4.8

Renewables 14.1

2015 (%share of primary fuels)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Nuclear

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

Renewables

Source: CEDIGAZ Estimate (2015), IEA

Slowing primary energy demand growth and the decline in energy intensity means that the share of gas in the energy mix has increased marginally despite slower gas demand expansion.


590

17%

481

14%

964

27.5%

482

14%

132 4%

163 4.5%

681

19.5%

World Total = 3493 109 m3 Source: CEDIGAZ

World natural gas consumption in 2015


Evolution of apparent consumption by geographic zone (1)

Source: CEDIGAZ

2005 – 2015 : + 2.2%/year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

Europe

CIS

Asia-Oceania

North America

Bcm


Evolution of apparent consumption by economic zone (1)

Source: CEDIGAZ

2005 – 2015 : + 2.2%/year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Others

OPEC

CIS

OECD

Bcm


Evolution of apparent consumption in the top-ten consuming countries

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US Russia China Iran Japan

Saudi Arabia Canada Germany UAE Mexico

United States

Russia

China

Iran

Japan

Saudi Arabia

Canada

Germany

UAE

Mexico

Others

Total 2015 = 3493 Bcm

Source: CEDIGAZ

Top-10 consuming countries

Unit: Bcm


Recent trends in actual gas consumption by region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

North America Asia-Oceania CIS Middle East EU28 Latin America Africa Other Europe

2014

2015

Actual gas consumption*

* Figures differ from apparent consumption as actual gas consumption takes stock changes into account.

Source: CEDIGAZ

Unit: Bcm


INTERNATIONAL GAS PRICES NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2016 EDITION


Evolution of international oil and gas prices

Source: CEDIGAZ, US EIA, Reuters

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2012 2013 2014 2015

Henry Hub

Europe - Average

Japan LNG

Brent

$/MBtu 2012 2013 2014 2015 Henry Hub 2.8 3.8 4.4 2.6

Europe - Average 11.5 11.8 10.1 6.8 Japan LNG 16.6 16 16 10.2

Brent 19.3 18.7 17.1 9


Evolution of international gas prices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20Ja

n-13

Feb-

13M

ar-1

3Ap

r-13

May

-13

Jun-

13Ju

l-13

Aug-

13Se

p-13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec-

13Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4Ap

r-14

May

-14

Jun-

14Ju

l-14

Aug-

14Se

p-14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec-

14Ja

n-15

Feb-

15M

ar-1

5Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug-

15Se

p-15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

NBP Japan spot LNG Japan LNG Oil parity* Henry Hub Europe - Average

* JCC

Source: CEDIGAZ, US EIA, Reuters

$/MBtu


NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 2016 Full version (100 slides) + Excel Data Files (Reserves, Production, Trade, Consumption, Underground Gas Storage) available to Cedigaz members Price for non-members: • Full slideshow (PDF): 350 Euros (VAT excluded) • Full slideshow (PDF) + Data (Excel): 1,500 Euros (VAT excluded)

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summary natural gas in the world – 2016 edition · 2018-09-09 · natural gas in the world –...

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