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17 September 2015 The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues During the week ending 16 September 2015, rainfall was recorded across much of south-west

Western Australia, southern Victoria, Tasmania and isolated areas of coastal Queensland, New South Wales, Northern Territory and South Australia.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were generally average or above average across much of Australia during the week ending 15 September 2015.

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres is likely in the far south-west of Western Australia, coastal south-east Queensland, coastal New South Wales, eastern Victoria and western Tasmania.

The 2015 El Niño event continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, ocean temperatures to the north of Australia and more broadly across the Indian Ocean also affect Australia's climate. These waters continue to remain warmer than normal and are likely to continue to moderate the influence of El Niño in many locations.

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 17 September 2015 by 50 gigalitres (GL) and are at 50 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4 050 GL less than at the same time last year.

In New South Wales, general security water allocations have increased in the Murray Valley system. While in Victoria, high security allocations have increased in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems.

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder increased by 20 per cent to US$2 495 a tonne on 15 September 2015, compared with US$2 078 a tonne on 1 September 2015. Over the same period, the price of skim milk powder increased by 17 per cent; the price of anhydrous milk fat increased by 14 per cent; and the price of cheddar cheese increased by 10 per cent.

The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 538 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 11 September 2015, 5 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 609 cents a kilogram and fell by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 614 cents a kilogram.

The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 578 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 11 September 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price fell by: 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 577 cents a kilogram; 1 per cent in South Australia to average of 518 cents a kilogram; and 6 per cent in Western Australia to average 514 cents a kilogram.

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$219 a tonne in the week ending 15 September 2015, compared with US$216 a tonne in the previous week.

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1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

During the week ending 16 September 2015, rainfall was recorded across much of south-west Western Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and isolated areas of coastal Queensland, New South Wales, Northern Territory and South Australia. Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was recorded in south-west Western Australia, southern Victoria, western Tasmania and coastal north Queensland. The highest recorded rainfall total was 89 millimetres at Topaz, 40km south of Cairns in north Queensland.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 16 September 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 16/09/2015

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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

Maximum temperatures were above average across much of Australia during the week ending 15 September 2015, while parts of northern Australia and south-west Western Australia recorded slightly below average temperatures.

Minimum temperatures were average or above average over areas of southern and north-eastern Australia during the week ending 15 September 2015. Areas of slightly below average temperatures were recorded most states and territories, while north Western Australia and the Northern Territory recorded temperatures between 2 and 6 degrees below average for this time of year.

Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 September 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 16/09/2015

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 September 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 16/09/2015

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1.3. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres is likely in the far south-west of Western Australia, coastal south-east Queensland, coastal New South Wales, eastern Victoria and western Tasmania.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 17 to 24 September 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 16/09/2015

1.4. ENSO Wrap-up

The 2015 El Niño event continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators are at levels not seen since the 1997–98 El Niño. Persistently weak or reversed trade winds and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), in conjunction with the ongoing warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicate the current El Niño event is unlikely to end before early 2016.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to rise further over the next few months. All models suggest the event will peak around the end of the year, followed by rapid weakening heading into autumn 2016. It is too early to accurately determine the likely pattern beyond autumn, but a continued El Niño is considered the least likely outcome at this stage.

Temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean are continuing to have a strong influence on the Australian climate. The whole Indian Ocean remains warmer than average with sea surface temperatures in the southern Indian Ocean the highest on record for winter. Some localised cooling near Indonesia means the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been above the +0.4 °C threshold for six weeks. If this continues for at least another fortnight, this will be considered a positive IOD event. Most models indicate this is likely.

El Niño is usually associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and a positive IOD typically reinforces this pattern over central and south-east Australia. However, this pattern has been offset in many areas by the record warm Indian Ocean and rainfall over winter was generally favourable in many regions in eastern Australia. Warmth in the Indian Ocean is likely to continue.

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2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 17 September 2015 by 50 gigalitres (GL) and are at 50 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4 050 GL less than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 17 September 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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2.2. Water allocations The current water allocations for the 2015–16 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.

In New South Wales, general security allocations have increased in the Murray Valley system.

In Victoria, high security allocations have increased in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems.

Allocations at 17 September 2015 (%) 10 September 2015 (%)

New South Wales General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray Valley 4* 97 0* 97

NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 27* 95 27* 95

NSW Lower Darling 0* 20 0* 20

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley

7* 100 7* 100

NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100

NSW Lachlan Valley 20 100 20 100

NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100

NSW Upper Namoi 60* 100 60* 100

NSW Gwydir Valley 4.89* 100 4.89* 100

NSW Border Rivers 100 a

/6.95 b

100 100

a /6.95

b 100

NSW Peel Valley 17* 100 17* 100

Victoria Low

reliability High

reliability Low

reliability High

reliability

Victoria Murray Valley 0 68 0 61

Victoria Goulburn 0 66 0 60

Victoria Campaspe 0 50 0 50

Victoria Loddon 0 50 0 45

Victoria Bullarook 0 0 0 0

Victoria Broken 0 0 0 0

South Australia High

security High

security

South Australia Murray Valley 100 100

*Carryover water may also be available a General security A class. b General security B class

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3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$219 a tonne in the week ending 15 September 2015, compared with US$216 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$170 a tonne in the week ending 16 September 2015, compared with US$161 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$421 a tonne in the week ending 15 September 2015, compared with US$413 a tonne in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US69.7 cents a pound in the week ending 16 September 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

Data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce indicates that India exported around 865 000 tonnes of raw cotton in the first eleven months of the 2014–15 season (August to July), compared with 1.98 million tonnes shipped by the same period in 2013–14.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US11.5 cents a pound in the week ending 16 September 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $290 a tonne in the week ending 16 September 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $277 a tonne in the week ending 16 September 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $254 a tonne in the week ending 16 September 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $525 a tonne in the week ending 14 September 2015, 3 per cent higher than the previous week.

The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 538 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 11 September 2015, 5 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 609 cents a kilogram and fell by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 614 cents a kilogram.

The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 578 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 11 September 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price fell by: 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 577 cents a kilogram; 1 per cent in South Australia to average of 518 cents a kilogram; and 6 per cent in Western Australia to average 514 cents a kilogram.

The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 260 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 10 September 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 11 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder increased by 20 per cent to US$2 495 a tonne on 15 September 2015, compared with US$2 078 a tonne on 1 September 2015. Over the same period, the price of skim milk powder increased by 17 per cent; the price of anhydrous milk fat increased by 14 per cent; and the price of cheddar cheese increased by 10 per cent.

Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 12 September 2015, compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf), avocado (hass) and blueberry fell while the prices of strawberry and watermelon (seedless) rose. The wholesale prices of kiwifruit (hayward) and apple (royal gala) were largely unchanged.

Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetable were also mixed in the week ending 12 September 2015, compared with the previous week.

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3.2. Selected world indicator prices

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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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3.4. Crop indicator prices

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3.5. Livestock indicator prices

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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices

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4. Data attribution Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Water

New South Wales

New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register:

http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Queensland

Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au

South Australia

SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow-report

South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au

Victoria

Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au

Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au

Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx

Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Pigs

Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au

Canola

Weekly Times: hardcopy

Dairy Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/