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23 July 2015

The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues During the week ending 22 July 2015, rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in parts

of south west Western Australia, south east South Australia, south east New South Wales, eastern Victoria and small areas of coastal Queensland and north west Tasmania.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were predominantly below average over much of Australia during the week ending 21 July 2015.

The 2015 El Niño event has strengthened and all international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate it is likely to strengthen further in the coming month. This event is expected to extend into early 2016.

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely across parts of southern Queensland, north east New South Wales, alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales, southern Victoria, and western and northern Tasmania.

During July 2015, general security water allocations have been increased in the Murrumbidgee Valley in New South Wales. In Victoria, high reliability allocations have been increased in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems.

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 263 gigalitres (GL) and are at 43 per cent of total capacity. This is 20 percentage points or 4 418 GL less than this time last year.

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$236 a tonne in the week ending 21 July 2015, compared with US$249 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $338 a tonne in the week ending 22 July 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 517 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 17 July 2015, 8 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 583 cents a kilogram and by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 576 cents a kilogram.

The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4, Victoria) averaged 576 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 17 July 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period: the saleyard price of lamb increased by 4 per cent in New South Wales to average 600 cents a kilogram; fell by 8 per cent in Western Australia to average 455 cents a kilogram; and remained largely unchanged in South Australia, averaging 534 cents a kilogram.

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1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

During the week ending 22 July 2015, rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded in parts of south west Western Australia, south east South Australia, south east New South Wales, eastern Victoria and small areas of coastal Queensland and north west Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total was 129 millimetres at Jervis Bay on the south coast of New South Wales.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 22 July 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/07/2015

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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

Maximum temperatures were predominantly below average over much of Australia during the week ending 21 July 2015. However, parts of Western Australia, Cape York, southern New South Wales and northern Victoria recorded slightly above average temperatures.

Minimum temperatures were predominantly below average over much of Australia during the week ending 21 July 2015. However, large parts of Western Australia and parts of New South Wales and Victoria recorded slightly above average minimum temperatures.

Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 21 July 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/07/2015

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 21 July 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/07/2015

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1.3. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely across parts of southern Queensland, north east New South Wales, alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales, southern Victoria, and western and northern Tasmania.

The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 23 to 30 July 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 22/07/2015

1.4. ENSO Wrap-up

The 2015 El Niño event has strengthened. A weakening, and at times a reversal, of the trade winds resulted in further warming over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past two weeks. All key ocean monitoring areas have recorded sea surface temperature anomalies of more than 1 °C above average for 10 successive weeks, which is a new record. This is two weeks longer than the previous record established during the 1997 El Niño event. In the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation Index drop to around −20 during the past week, the lowest value recorded during the current El Niño event.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the current El Niño event is likely to strengthen further in the coming month, and is expected to persist into early 2016. El Niño events typically peak during late spring or early summer, and then weaken early in the following year.

El Niño often brings below average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country during the second half of the year. However, other factors, such as temperatures to the north of Australia and in the Indian Ocean, also affect Australia's climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. However, three of the five international models that provide IOD outlooks suggest a positive IOD is likely during late winter to spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

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2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 23 July 2015 by 263 gigalitres (GL) and are at 43 per cent of total capacity. This is 20 percentage points or 4 418 GL less than this time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 23 July 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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2.2. Water availability The current water allocations for the 2015–16 water trading season in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia are summarised in the following table.

In New South Wales, general security allocations have increased in the Murrumbidgee Valley during

July 2015.

In Victoria, high reliability allocations have increased in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon

systems during July 2015.

Allocations at 23 July 2015 (%) 1 July 2015 (%)

New South Wales General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray Valley 0* 80 0* 80

NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 12* 95 8* 95

NSW Lower Darling 0* 20 0* 20

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 0* 100 0* 100

NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100

NSW Lachlan Valley 0* 100 0* 100

NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100

NSW Upper Namoi 50* 100 50* 100

NSW Gwydir Valley 0* 100 0* 100

NSW Border Rivers 100 a

/0 b

100 100 a

/0 b

100

NSW Peel Valley 0* 50 0* 50

Victoria Low

reliability High

reliability Low

reliability High

reliability

Victoria Murray Valley 0 37 0 35

Victoria Goulburn 0 45 0 42

Victoria Campaspe 0 50 0 50

Victoria Loddon 0 39 0 37

Victoria Bullarook 0 0 0 0

Victoria Broken 0 0 0 0

South Australia High

security High

security

South Australia Murray Valley 100 100

*Carryover water may also be available a General security A class. b General security B class

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3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$236 a tonne in the week ending 21 July 2015, compared with US$249 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$181 a tonne in the week ending 22 July 2015, compared with US$189 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$420 a tonne in the week ending 21 July 2015, compared with US$433 in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US71.7 cents a pound in the week ending 22 July 2015, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US11.7 cents a pound in the week ending 22 July 2015, around 6 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $338 a tonne in the week ending 22 July 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $316 a tonne in the week ending 22 July 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $296 a tonne in the week ending 22 July 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $540 a tonne in the week ending 22 July 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 517 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 17 July 2015, 8 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 583 cents a kilogram and by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 576 cents a kilogram.

The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4, Victoria) averaged 576 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in the week ending 17 July 2015, 3 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period: the saleyard price of lamb increased by 4 per cent in New South Wales to average 600 cents a kilogram; fell by 8 per cent in Western Australia to average 455 cents a kilogram; and remained largely unchanged in South Australia, averaging 534 cents a kilogram.

Changes to selected wholesale fruit prices were mixed in the week ending 18 July 2015 compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices for watermelon (seedless) and avocado (hass) fell, while the wholesale prices of pineapple (smoothleaf) and strawberry rose. The wholesale prices of blueberry, apple (royal gala) and kiwifruit (hayward) remained largely unchanged.

The wholesale prices of selected vegetable were higher in the week ending 18 July 2015. Prices for cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet), broccoli, lettuce (iceberg) and bean (round, stringless) increased while the prices of onion (brown), potato (white, brushed) and pumpkin (grey bulk) were largely unchanged.

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3.2. Selected world indicator prices

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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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3.4. Crop indicator prices

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3.5. Livestock indicator prices

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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices

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4. Data attribution Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Water

New South Wales

New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register:

http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Queensland

Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au

South Australia

SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow-report

South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au

Victoria

Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au

Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au

Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx

Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Pigs

Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au

Canola

Weekly Times: hardcopy

Dairy Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/