summary of predicted climate effects on species source: foden, mace et al. 2009 iucn
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Summary of predicted climate effects on species
Source: Foden, Mace et al. 2009 IUCN
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CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BASED ON IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS
Increases in surface air temperature, IPCC (2007) WGI: The Physical Basis of Climate Change
A2 Medium/high emissions scenario
“Business as usual”
B1 Low emissions scenario
A1B Medium emissions scenario
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Vulnerability framework Levels of vulnerability used to grade
species
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28 SPECIES STUDIED IDENTIFIED AS HAVING A HIGH VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE:
• Hawksbill Turtle, • Green Turtle, • Balearic Shearwater, • Kemp's Ridley Turtle, • Narwhal, • North Pacific Right
Whale, • Northern Atlantic
Right Whale, • Relict Gull, • Gharial,
• Loggerhead Turtle, • Short-tailed Albatross, • West African Manatee, • Bowhead Whale, • Dama Gazelle, • Leatherback Turtle,• Sociable Plover, • Southern Right Whale, • Olive Ridley, • Addax,
• Red-breasted Goose, • White-naped Crane, • Steller's Eider, • Siberian Crane, • Blue Whale, • Giant Catfish, • Basra Reed-warbler, • Common Sturgeon, • Bermuda Petrel and • Snow Leopard.
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RIS light-trap network
Trap operating currentlyTrap no longer operated
> 400 have run at least 1 full year
80 – 100 run annually
56 sites sampled ≥15 years30 sites sampled ≥25 years
Continuous, national record of >400 macro-moth species
One of the world’s longest records of contemporary insect biodiversity
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Decline in total trap catchesTotal Catch / Site
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Ab
un
da
nc
e I
nd
ex
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
32 % decrease in 35 years
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Two fundamental concerns…
• Are we sufficiently aware of the global warming threat?
• Are we sufficiently responding to that threat?
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What is a safe temperature/CO2 level?
Current focus is all on 2oC (~450ppm CO2)