summer 2015 analyst presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Summer 2015 Analyst Presentation
2
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains statements that we believe are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “guidance”, “outlook”, or words of similar meaning. All statements regarding 2015 outlook are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated as of the date of this presentation. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these expectations include, among other things, the following: uncertain costs, savings and timeframes associated with the planned implementation of the ERP system; potential weakening in the high efficiency boiler industry in the U.S.; the ability to execute our acquisition strategy; significant volatility in raw material prices; competitive pressures on the company’s businesses; inability to implement or maintain pricing actions; instability in the company’s replacement markets; strength or duration of any recoveries in U.S. residential and commercial construction; a slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy; foreign currency fluctuations and adverse general economic conditions and capital market deterioration.
Forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation, and the company is under no obligation to update these statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributed to the company, or persons acting on its behalf, are qualified entirely by these cautionary statements. This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures as that term is defined by the SEC. Non-GAAP financial measures are generally identified by “Adjusted” (Adj.), “Non-GAAP” or “Before Restructuring”.
3
Investment Case
► Market share leader in major businesses
► Stable/Growing North American replacement market; operating leverage as new construction recovers
► Strong balance sheet and cash flow to support future growth & share repurchase
► Strength of our brand, distribution, manufacturing and innovation provide clear market advantage in China
► Organic growth of 8 + percent for next several years
4
Sales & Adjusted Operating Margin*
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales Adj EBIT Margin
Sale
s in
milli
ons
* excludes corporate expenses
5
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
$137$158
$197
$270
$333
$374
$464
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast2015
* Analyst consensus
Adjusted EBITDA2009 10.0% of Sales2015* 17.7% of Sales
6
Adjusted Earnings Per Share
$0.68 $0.85
$1.07
$1.56
$2.06
$2.43
$3.07
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015GuidanceMidpoint
7
ROW►China/India = 91%►Europe/Middle East = 9%
NA►Water heaters
growing Lochinvar 10% expected growth in 2015
Segment Revenue
North America
68%Rest of World32%
2014 full year
8
U.S. Water Heater Market Segment
Residential Market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Other2014 market share data
AHRI data + tankless:AOS actual shipments
and AOS estimatesof competitors’
shipments
9
Wholesale Retail
U.S. Residential Water Heater Market Segment
2014 – 9.2 mm Units
Wholesale channel is
~“50%” of the market
Retail channel
is ~“50%” of the market
A. O. Smith’s Customers
Large Regional Distributors
10
Water HeatersStrong Replacement Sales
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New ConstructionReplacement
thou
sand
s of
uni
ts
Peak housing starts: 2.1 million
North American Residential Water Heaters
Note: Includes tankless
11
U.S. Water Heater Market SegmentCommercial Market*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Other
2014 market share data
AHRI data:AOS actual shipments
and AOS estimatesof competitors’
shipments
* Commercial water heater segment as defined by AHRI, total 2014 commercial units as reported by AHRI = 167,700
12
Energy Efficient Cyclone
►Game changing energy efficient commercial product launched in 1997 and recently upgraded
►Up to 96% thermal efficiency dramatically lowers operating costs offering short payback
► Represents 24% of AOS commercial units
13
U.S. Commercial Gas Market: Energy Efficient Units Double in Five Years
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Com
mer
cial
Gas
Indu
stry
Uni
ts
<90% Efficiency >90% Efficiency
Source: AHRI Industry Data
2009:19,000 units
2014:38,000 units
14
Lochinvar End Markets
Hydronic Space Heating
48%
Water Heating 40%
Parts/Other 12%
2/3 commercial end markets; 1/3 residential end markets
15
Trend to Higher Efficiency, Condensing Boilers
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Condensing Commercial Boilers Condensing Commercial Boilers
Source: BRG Building Solutions
North American Commercial Boiler Volume (Units)
Actual Forecast
16
Lochinvar Branded Sales DollarsCondensing vs. Non-Condensing*
2004
8%
92%
2014
19%
81%Condensing
*Residential Boilers, Commercial Boilers & Commercial Water Heaters
Non-Condensing
Condensing Non-Condensing
17
China now 30% of Sales & GrowingChina sales have grown 28% (CAGR) over the last 10 years
US$
milli
ons
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
18
Nanjing
AOS China Built on:► Premium Brand
► Extensive Distribution and Service Network
► Innovative New Products & World Class Manufacturing
► Local Management Team and Organizational Development
19
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Mar
ket S
hare
Year
Haier
Midea
Macro
Wanhe
Rinnai
Noritz
Ariston
Sakura
Siemens
A.O.Smith
Ten-Year + Market Share Trend
Leading residential brands measured in currency; Tier One Market: GFK - CMM data sampling several thousand largest retail stores, May 2015
20
Electric Market Share Gas Market Share
Market Share by Price Category
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
>=400 300-400 200-300 <200
Valu
e M
arke
t Sha
re
Retail Price(USD)
Others
Siemens
Ariston
Midea
Haier
A.O.Smith
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
>=400 300-400 200-300 <200
Valu
e M
arke
t Sha
re
Retail Price(USD)
OthersHaierAristonWanheMacroSakuraNoritzRinnaiA.O.Smith
Data Source :CMM Retail Survey 2014-150 Best Selling Models
21
Broad Distribution Channel
► Over 7,000 outlets in China
► 35% of outlets in Tier 1 cities; 65% in Tier 2/3 citiesPercentage of Sales
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2010 2012 2013 2014
1% 3%8%
10%22%
26% 25% 25%
36% 33% 35% 35% 36%
Regional StoresAOS Specialty StoresSuning/GuomeiE-Commerce
22
Product Line developed in China
Wall-hungElectric
GasTankless
WaterPurifier
Gas & Electric
Commercial
Residential &
CommercialHeat Pump
PressurizedSolar
CombiBoiler
AirPurifier
23
Professional Team of Local Management
24
Mega Trends - China
Significant growth in AOS target demographic
Source: McKinsey Insights China – April 2012
A. O. Smith customer
demographic continues to grow rapidly
Growth of 10 times
during this decade
2010: 18 mmhouseholds
2020: 180 mmhouseholds
25
China Consumers Prefer Foreign Brands
Higher: Annual income >= $20,000 / yearLower: Annual income <$20,000 / year
26
► Leverage the A. O. Smith brand in our existing water heater channels Over 4,500 retail stores at Dec 2014
► Reverse osmosis main focus
A. O. Smith Branded Water Treatment Systems:
China Water Treatment Market
Data: CMM
► Product development focused at customer needs and technical improvements
► Fast growing, highly fragmented market Industry studies we have seen indicate almost
40% CAGR during next five years
27
Sediment & Colloids
Bacterium & Organics
Rust Removal
Active Carbon - improves taste (for good incoming water areas as in the US and Europe)
Heavy Metals, Virus & Salts
Micro-Filtration - removes sediment and colloids (can correct basic water pollution problem)
Ultra-Filtration - removes bacterium, large organics and other pollutants resulting from water transport)Reverse Osmosis - the ultimate filtration technology; removes nearly all substances, particularly most heavy metals prevalent in China and India water supply
Pore Size 5000 nm
Pore Size 1000 nm
Pore Size 50 nm
Pore Size 0.2 nm
Carbon
MF
UF
RO
Different Water Treatment Technologies
28
Reverse Osmosis Is Gaining Market Share
Data: CMM
CMM Water Treatment Market by Technology
29
Side stream Membrane Technology
►Unique patented design
► Increases RO membrane life
► Reduces waste water up to 50 percent
► Provides market place differentiation
30
Tankless water treatment – enabled by side-stream membrane technology► Provides immediate
freshwater
► Minimizes risk of post RO membrane contamination No storage tank needed
► Leverages membrane rolling capabilities to produce hi-flow RO products Constant flow rates up to
0.9 gallons per minute
31Data Source: CMM-GFK April-2015
Major Brands CMM Market Share By Value Water Purifier
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Midea
A.O.Smith
Qinyuan
Angel
Litree
3M
Haier
Echwater
32
Air purifiers - the market need is clearly visible
45PM 2.5 PM 2.5
Bird’s Nest – Beijing: a healthy day (left) and a very unhealthy day (right)
453
33
China Air Purifier Market Growth OpportunityUnit sales per 1000 Urban Households for China and its neighbors
China’s air pollution may drive urban penetration closer to Japanese levels
Source: Euromonitor, January 2015Note: For calculating penetration rate for China: assumed no replacement in the period
Projection by Euromonitor
3.4% household penetration overall; 14% penetration in top 23 (‘first tier’) cities
Urban household penetration rates in Japan and Korea are 60% and 19%, respectively ;China will tackle coal consumption, coal type and combustion technology
34
Middle and affluent classes are growing
theUrbanization in China projected to drive 29%
of all global growth!
• A. O. Smith has manufacturing capacity and channel footprint to capitalize
• Our Premium Consumer brand is positioned for the middle and affluent classes
• A. O. Smith is a strong foreign brand
• We are positioned to reach consumers using the internet
China Mega Trends Driving GrowthInternet
Middle and affluent class trade up and value foreign brands
35
Mega Trends - India
Significant growth in AOS target demographic
SOURCE: India Urbanization Econometric Model Updated 2010
Millions of households, percent, 2000 prices
A. O. Smith targetdemographic:
upper middle class
36
A cities (pop >1.5 mm)Distribution in all 23 Class
Class B cities (pop .5 to 1.5 mm)Distribution in 61 of 67
Class C cities (pop .1 to .5 mm)Distribution 314 of 400
Building Distribution
National Retailers
Regional Retailers
Headquarters and Manufacturing (Bengaluru)
Major Distribution Locations
37
Business Model In India Similar to China
► Attractive Growth Demographics
► Leveraging Global Capabilities with Products Designed for the Indian Market
► Building Brand & Expanding our Distribution
► Introducing New Product Categories with Water Treatment
► Local Management
38
Energy Efficiency
39
Energy Efficient Products
VoltexTM EffexTM CirrexTM
Tankless
CycloneTM
Acquisition Strategy
41
Adjacencies Water-themed platforms for growth New technologies beyond water for China
Growth Strategy: Acquisitions
Adjacencies
Geography
Expand/ Grow the Core New Products & New
Technologies Water Heating Water Treatment
Geographic Growth China India High Growth GDP markets
Core
42
Investment Criteria
► Value creation opportunities
► ROIC in excess of cost of capital by second or third year
► Meet risk adjusted IRR hurdle rates
► Margin accretion with growth rates higher than U.S. GDP
► Accretive to earnings in the first year
2015 Outlook
44
A. O. Smith’s Capital Allocation Options
► Organic growth (capital expenditures)► Acquisitions
$270 million net cash 16 percent leverage ratio (debt/total
capital)► Return cash to shareholders: approximately
$170 million projected in 2015Dividends
• Increased 27 percent in first quarter 2015
Share repurchase• Expect to repurchase approximately $125 million* in
2015 to maintain net cash position level similar to year-end 2014: approximately $320 million
*subject to price, alternative investments and working capital requirements
45
2015 Outlook
► China revenue grows at two times China GDP► North America
Price increase effective in April NAECA III transition complete Residential and commercial water heater volumes
improve year over year ► Lochinvar branded annual sales growth of 10 percent
Transition in North America to higher efficiency boilers continues
► Leverage brand and distribution in China Introduce A. O. Smith air purifiers
► Continued commitment to India Focused water treatment launch July 23, 2015
46
Growth Strategy: Organic Growth
• 4.5%• 4.5%
China: 30% of sales growing 15%
• 1.2%• 1.2%
Lochinvar: 12% of sales growing 10%
• 2.3%• 2.3%
NA water heaters: 58% of sales growing 4%
• 8.0%• 8.0%
Total annual sales growth
Note: NA water heater growth expected to exceed 4 percent in 2015, is a result of higher priced NAECA III products, and result in total company sales growth of approximately 11 percent in 2015
47
China Growth Model : 2X GDP
2X China GDP
Water Heater Market Growth
Market Share Gains & Average Selling Price
Increases
Fast Growing Ancillary Products
48
Growth and Stability
Offense► Organic growth of 8 + % China growing
approximately 2X GDP in 2015 Lochinvar branded
products grow at 10% in 2015
► Call option on NA new construction
► Significant cash and borrowing capacity for “value creating” acquisitions and share buyback
Defense► NA water heaters 90%+
replacement► Market share leader in NA,
China and path to become leader in India
► Strong balance sheet; net cash position approximately $320 million (target)
► Small exposure to Europe ($50 million in revenues)
Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer
Direct: 414-359-4130Email: [email protected]
Investor Contact
49
Appendix
Second Quarter 2015 Resultsand
2015 Full Year Guidance
52
Second Quarter Results
2015 2014 change % chg.
($ in millions)
Sales 653.5$ 595.4$ 58.1$ 10%
Net Earnings 71.1 57.3
Non-operating Pension (after-tax) 3.0
Adjusted Earnings 71.1$ 60.3$ 10.8$ 18%
53
Second Quarter EPS
EPS $ 0.79 $ 0.63Non-operating Pension 0.03
Adjusted EPS $ 0.79 $ 0.66 $ 0.13 20%
2015 2014 change % chg.
54
North America 442.7$ 410.1$ 32.6$ 8%
Rest of World 221.3 193.6 27.7$ 14%
Intersegment (10.5) (8.3) (2.2)$
Total 653.5$ 595.4$ 58.1$ 10%
($ in millions)
Second Quarter Sales
2015 2014 change % chg.
55
North America 86.0$ 67.1$ * 18.9$ 28%Rest of World 30.9 29.3 1.6 5%Total Operating 116.9 96.4 20.5 21%
Corporate (11.2) (11.4) ** 0.2 2%Interest Expense (2.5) (1.4) (1.1) -79%Pre-tax Earnings 103.2 83.6 19.6 23%Income Tax Expense (32.1) (23.3) (8.8) -38%Earnings 71.1$ 60.3$ 10.8$ 18%Operating MarginNorth America 19.4% 16.4% *Rest of World 14.0% 15.1%
Second Quarter Operating Earnings
2015 2014 change % chg.
* Excludes $3.9 million non-operating pension costs in 2014** Excludes $1.1 million non-operating pension costs in 2014
($ in millions, except margins)
56
59
91
0102030405060708090
100
Operating Cash Flow from Continuing Operations
►Cash flow of $59 million
►Debt to capital ratio of 16%
►Cash balance: $552 million
►Net cash position: $273 million
►Stock repurchase: 730,000 shares totaling $47 million
6/30/2015 6/30/2014
First Half 2015 UpdateFirst Half 2015 Update($ in millions)
57
Relevant Data Points
2015 Projections
As of July 23, 2015
($ in millions)
Operating Cash Flow $300
Capital Expenditures $100 to $110
Depreciation and Amortization $65
ERP Implementation Expense $19 to $20
Tax Rate 30.5%
Corporate/Other Expense $45
58
2015 EPS Guidance and Adjusted 2014 EPS
Diluted EPS (GAAP) $3.04- $3.09 $ 2.29
Non-operating pension costs per diluted share 0.14
Adjusted EPS $ 2.43
2015Guidance 2014
The following is a reconciliation of diluted EPS to adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) (all items are net of tax):
As of July 23, 2015