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7/21/17

Sun Prairie Area

School District

Community Growth &

Projections Report

2017 Addendum

7/21/2017

7/21/17

Acknowledgements

School Board

Tom Weber, President

Dr. Steve Schroeder, Vice President

David Hoekstra, Treasurer

Carol Sue Albright, Clerk

Marilyn Ruffin, Deputy Clerk

Caren Diedrich

Marta Hansen

SPASD Administrative Support

Brad Saron, Superintendent

Rhonda Page, Business Services Manager

Phil Frei, Director of Business & Finance

Clark Luessman, Interim Executive Director of Operations

Victoria Claas, Executive Assistant for Operations

Consultants

MDRoffers Consulting

Project Management and Planning

www.mdroffers.com

Applied Population Laboratory

Mapping Consultants

www.apl.wisc.edu

Special thanks to local residential builders and

developers, and various officials and staff from the

municipalities within the School District community,

particularly planners from the Cities of Sun Prairie and

Madison.

http://www.mdroffers.com/

http://www.apl.wisc.edu/

7/21/17

Table of Contents

A. Scope of this Addendum ...................................................................................................................................................... 3

Map 1: Current District, Attendance Area, and Neighborhood Boundaries .............................................................................. 4

B. Current SPASD Enrollment Versus Capacity ........................................................................................................................ 5

C. Recent and Pending Housing Market Trends ...................................................................................................................... 5

FIGURE 1: NEW HOUSING UNITS AUTHORIZED BY BUILDING PERMITS, 2004-2016 ................................................ 6

D. Housing Unit Growth Projections Update ....................................................................................................................... 6

FIGURE 2: HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY CURRENT SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA .............................................. 8

Map 2: Projected Housing Unit Growth by Neighborhood ........................................................................................................ 9

E. Student Enrollment Projections Update ............................................................................................................................ 10

FIGURE 3: SPASD K-12 STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ................................................................................... 12

Map 3: Projected SPASD Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2017-2030 For Grades K-12 (All Schools) ............. 13

Map 4: Projected SPASD Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2017-2030 For Grades K-5 (Elementary Schools) . 14

Map 5: Projected SPASD Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2017-2030 For Grades 6-7 (Middle Schools) ........ 15

Map 6: Projected SPASD Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2017-2030 For Grades 8-9 (Upper Middle School)16

Map 7: Projected SPASD Student Enrollment Change by Neighborhood, 2017-2030 For Grades 10-12 (High School).......... 17

APPENDIX A: HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY NEIGHBORHOOD, 2017-2030 ..................................................................... 18

APPENDIX B: SPASD ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY GRADE GROUP AND NEIGHBORHOOD, 2017-2030 .......................... 31

7/21/17

A. SCOPE OF THIS ADDENDUM

This 2017 Addendum to the 2016 Community Growth & Projections Report was prepared to assist the Sun Prairie Area School

District (SPASD) gain an updated understanding of the impact of future residential development and demographic change on

future student enrollment. Through this Addendum, the consultant also compares enrollment projections to the capacities of

existing schools plus the added elementary school capacity that will be gained with the opening of the two new elementary

schools.

Since the completion of the 2016 Community Growth & Projections Report, SPASD voters approved a referendum authorizing

the District to construct two new elementary schools. These are represented on the maps in this Addendum, and referred to as

the “Thompson Road Site” and the “Grand Avenue Site.” Over this same period, the residential development landscape has

changed somewhat, and the SPASD was interested in extending the end year of the projections from 2025 to 2030 to facilitate its

long-range planning efforts.

This 2017 Addendum features updated and extended housing unit and SPASD student enrollment projections in three periods:

from January 2017 through 2020, 2021 to 2025, and 2026 to 2030. The Addendum also includes general housing unit growth

expectations for the following ten years (2030 to 2040). Refer to the 2016 Report for a description of projection methodology.

Housing and enrollment projections are broken down by 68 different small areas or “neighborhoods” and by school attendance

areas that are in place today. Elementary and “lower” middle school attendance areas will change from those represented in

this Addendum starting in the 2018-19 school year. The 2016 Report used 64 neighborhoods instead of the 68 seen here. In

2017, SPASD staff and the consultant agreed to subdivide four 2016 neighborhoods and slightly realign some other 2016

neighborhood boundaries to correct minor errors and to aid in the process of adjusting school attendance areas.

This 2017 Addendum does not attempt to amend or update any other aspect of the 2016 Community Growth & Projections

Report. Also, neither the 2016 Report nor this 2017 Addendum includes proposed solutions to the school capacity issues that

the consultant predicts. Instead, these are being and will be addressed through pending and future SPASD processes, including

the work of the District’s Boundary Task Force in the first half of 2017.

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C.H. Bird Elementary

Creekside Elementary

Eastside Elementary

Horizon Elementary

Northside Elementary

Royal Oaks Elementary

Westside Elementary

Middle School (6-7)(Patrick Marsh to east,Prairie View to west)

SPASD Boundary

SPASD Neighborhood Boundaries

2016 Municipal Boundaries

Rivers and Streams

Sources: Dane County, Sun PrairieArea School District, MDRoffers Consulting

Prepared: July 2017

¯0 0.5 1 Mile

Map 1: Current District,Attendance Area, and

Neighborhood Boundaries

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Current Elementary (grades K-5)

Middle (grades 6-7)

High (grades 10-12) Upper Middle (grades 8-9)

Local RoadsHighways

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SPASD Schools

Railroads

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Vacant SPASD Owned Land

Note: This map represents school attendanceareas as of the year 2016-17. School attendanceareas will change as a result of the two newelementary schools expected to open in fall 2018.

7/21/17

B. CURRENT SPASD ENROLLMENT VERSUS CAPACITY

Through its November 2016 report, the UW-Madison Applied Population Laboratory (APL) indicated that total SPASD K-12

enrollment increased by 1,736 students, or 29 percent, between the 2006-2007 and 2016-2017 school years. Enrollment

increases occurred within all grade groupings (K-5, 6-7, 8-9, 10-12) over this period.

January 2017 enrollment at nearly every elementary school was over its targeted (or ideal) building capacity, per capacity studies

prepared by SPASD-hired architectural firms. Only Westside Elementary School remained under its targeted capacity, but only

by 8 students. January 2017 enrollment at Eastside, Horizon, Northside, and Royal Oaks Elementary Schools exceeded those

buildings’ maximum capacities by between 11 and 87 students. Overcrowding at Eastside and Horizon Elementary Schools has

become so severe that fifth graders were temporarily relocated to Patrick Marsh and Prairie View Middle Schools, respectively,

in the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 school years.

The new Grand Avenue and Thompson Road elementary schools will relieve this severe overcrowding at SPASD elementary

schools when these two schools open in fall 2018.

The SPASD middle, upper middle, or high schools are not currently operating above their maximum capacities. However,

January 2017 enrollment at Sun Prairie High School is 37 students over that building’s targeted capacity.

C. RECENT AND PENDING HOUSING MARKET TRENDS

While the SPASD includes all or parts of ten municipalities, the City of Sun Prairie contains nearly ¾ of the SPASD’s population

and around 80% of its new housing units over the past ten years. These percentages will likely decrease in the next decade or so

when new housing growth in the City of Madison portion of the SPASD is expected to accelerate.

Housing construction in the SPASD began to rebound in 2011. Figure 1 lists housing permits issued within the City of Madison

portion of the SPASD from 2006 to 2016, and permits issued by all other SPASD municipalities from 2004 to 2016.

7/21/17

FIGURE 1: NEW HOUSING UNITS AUTHORIZED BY BUILDING PERMITS, 2004-2016

Municipality 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

City of Sun Prairie 590 354 358 87 228 45 47 105 226 271 266 166 191

Town of Bristol 60 44 25 15 12 11 13 19 30 35 28 31 18

Town of Sun Prairie 19 20 7 4 3 4 4 2 6 9 4 4 6

Town of Burke 34 43 8 10 5 4 7 6 3 6 5 9 5

City of Madison

(portion in SPASD) n/a n/a 34 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 265 196

Total 703 461 432 122 254 64 71 132 265 321 303 475 416

Area planners and developers are optimistic on future housing unit growth in the SPASD, suggesting new subdivisions, new

phases of existing subdivisions, and new multiple family building projects in several locations. The single family housing market

remains strong, with single family projects in the Madison portion of the SPASD becoming prominent for the first time and at

least one new single family subdivision opening in the City of Sun Prairie in 2017. The SPASD is also experiencing increased

multiple family housing construction, often in 200+ unit projects and sometimes as a result of redevelopment projects. The

consultant believes that the multiple family market in the SPASD may become overbuilt after 2020.

Most demographic trends suggest a continued decrease in household sizes, fewer schoolchildren per new housing unit, and a

greater percentage of multiple family housing than in the past. Therefore, over the next 13+ years, both existing and new

housing units will likely generate fewer SPASD students than they did in the past.

D. HOUSING UNIT GROWTH PROJECTIONS UPDATE

The consultant projects construction of 8,553 new housing units in the SPASD between January 2017 and 2030—or about 630

new units per year. This projection generally tracks with recent building permit activity and State population projections for

7/21/17

overlapping areas and timeframes. Map 2 and Appendix A include details on the consultant’s updated projections of new

housing units by neighborhood.

The City of Sun Prairie will continue to be an attractive location for housing development. This will be focused particularly on the

west side neighborhoods of Smith’s Crossing, West Prairie Village, a multiple family area near West Main Street, Ironwood

Estates, and The Reserve around the Thompson Road school site. The consultant projects that multiple family units will

comprise a sizeable percentage, perhaps a majority, of the City’s total new housing units through 2030, due to current and

expected market demand from Millennials and Baby Boomers looking to downsize. In the City of Sun Prairie as a whole, the

consultant projects an average of 438 housing units per year between 2017 and 2020, 278 housing units per year between 2021

and 2025, and 229 housing units per year between 2026 and 2030. The City has recently approved, or is expected to approve in

the near future, a number of larger multiple family projects, which significantly affect the projection through 2020. After 2020,

housing demand in the City of Sun Prairie could be affected by the growing number of City of Madison-based developments in

the SPASD.

Madison-based development will have an increasing influence on the SPASD. In the City of Madison portion of the SPASD, recent

and pending residential developments includes the City of Madison’s Village at Autumn Lake, emerging subdivisions in that City’s

“northeast neighborhood” to Autumn Lake’s east (including Woods Farm), and multiple family projects near Highway 151.

Overall, within the portions of the City of Madison within the SPASD, the consultant projects an average of 195 housing units per

year through 2020, increasing to about 300 units per year between 2021 and 2025 and about 370 units per year between 2026

and 2030. After 2020, City of Madison/SPASD growth is expected to accelerate within multiple developments. New Madison-

based residential development in the SPASD will be driven by growing market interest, utility expansions, experienced

developers and builders, larger multiple family and single family projects, and diminishing expansion opportunities in Madison’s

other peripheral areas.

Between 2017 and 2030, the consultant projects that the number of new housing units in the Madison portion of the SPASD will

be about the same as the number in the City of Sun Prairie. The consultant projects that over 95% of the new housing units in

the SPASD will be within these two cities combined.

7/21/17

Figure 2 includes housing unit projections by current elementary school attendance area, as depicted in Map 1. This assumes no

change in current attendance area boundaries; these boundaries will obviously change as a result of the addition of the two new

elementary schools. The consultant projects that new housing unit growth will be focused particularly in the current Creekside

Elementary School attendance area, and secondarily in the current Westside Elementary School attendance area.

FIGURE 2: HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY CURRENT SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA

2016-2017

Elementary School

Attendance Area

Estimated/Projected Housing Units within

2016-2017 Attendance Area

Projected

Housing Unit

Increase

2017-2030 Jan.

2017 2020 2025 2030

C.H. Bird 2,028 2,255 2,437 2,631 +603

Creekside 3,150 4,253 6,030 7,927 +4,777

Eastside 2,960 3,078 3,281 3,478 +518

Horizon 2,021 2,385 2,550 2,558 +537

Northside 2,522 2,569 2,728 3,006 +484

Royal Oaks 1,865 1,878 1,903 1,918 + 53

Westside 2,512 2,986 3,513 4,093 +1,581

TOTAL 17,058 19,404 22,442 25,611 +8,553

NOTE: This figure does not account for the fact that elementary school attendance areas will

change as the result of the pending construction of two new elementary schools, which are

scheduled to open in fall 2018.

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SPASD Boundary



Rivers and Streams


Prepared: July 2017

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Map 2: Projected Housing UnitGrowth by Neighborood

Projected Housing Unit Growth,2017-2030

0 to 40 New Housing Units

41 to 125 New Housing Units126 to 250 New Housing Units

251 to 400 New Housing Units401+ New Housing Units

× Projected Moderate HousingGrowth

× Projected High Housing Growth

Future Housing Expectations,2030-2040

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7/21/17

E. STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UPDATE

Between January 2017 and 2030, the consultant projects an increase of 2,405 K-12 students in SPASD schools. Map 3,

Figure 3, and Appendix B provide details on this projection. Maps 4 through 7 break down projections by grade group.

The consultant projects elementary school (grades K-5) enrollment growth of 922 students between 2017 and 2030. As

suggested in Figure 3 and Map 4, nearly all of the projected 922 student elementary school enrollment increase would be

within the current attendance area of Creekside Elementary School (i.e., in the southern part of the SPASD). This is driven

predominately by the projected increase of 4,777 new housing units in the current Creekside attendance area over this

same period. The total elementary school enrollment capacity in Figure 3 includes the two new elementary schools,

which will open for the 2018-19 school year. The addition of these two schools means that there should be sufficient

elementary school capacity to accommodate total grade K-5 enrollment until around 2030.

The consultant projects middle school (grades 6-7) enrollment growth of 410 students between 2017 and 2030.

Combined, middle school enrollment is projected to be 100 students above both buildings’ combined targeted capacity

by 2030. Assuming continuation of the current attendance areas, Patrick Marsh Middle School is projected to be at its

targeted capacity by around 2025 and over its maximum capacity by around 2030. About three of every four projected

new students would be within the current Patrick Marsh Middle School attendance area (see Map 1). In contrast, after a

projected increase to 666 students by 2020, enrollment at Prairie View Middle School is projected to be flat between

2020 and 2030, resulting in that school operating below its targeted capacity through 2030. This all assumes no middle

school grade grouping changes or attendance area changes over this period. As of summer 2017, it appeared that there

would be some changes in middle school attendance areas in conjunction with elementary school attendance area

changes.

The consultant projects upper middle school (grades 8-9) enrollment growth of about 480 students between 2017 and

2020. This may result in the upper middle school building approaching its targeted capacity in the early 2020s and

exceeding its maximum capacity by 2030.

7/21/17

Finally, the consultant projects enrollment at Sun Prairie High School (grades 10-12, less Prairie Phoenix Academy) to

grow by nearly 600 students between 2017 and 2030. This may result in the high school building exceeding its targeted

capacity before 2020 and its maximum capacity by 2025.

The consultant generally projects enrollment growth to be greatest in the City of Sun Prairie and City of Madison

neighborhoods that will have the greatest projected housing unit growth. Other factors also matter, and can perhaps

best be observed by comparing Maps 2 and 3. These include the projected ratio of single family to multiple family

housing and neighborhood turnover to new families through 2030—both of which can vary substantially from

neighborhood-to-neighborhood. See also Appendix A for these types of details.

The SPASD will have increasing enrollment from new families in its City of Madison portion. In January 2017, about 330

City of Madison/SPASD resident K-12 students attended SPASD schools. By 2030, the consultant projects that Madison

neighborhoods will generate over 1,800 K-12 SPASD students. About one-half of these are projected to be K-5 students.

In November 2016, APL updated its SPASD enrollment projections using a different methodology than MDRoffers

Consulting. Still, the two consultants’ projections are similar. 2025 is the last year that both consultants had overlapping

projections. For 2025, APL projects between 8,314 and 9,046 SPASD K-12 students, while MDRoffers projects 9,007 total

K-12 students.

7/21/17

FIGURE 3: SPASD K-12 STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS (WITH CURRENT ATTENDANCE AREAS)

SPASD Student Enrollment within 2016-17 Attendance Area Projected

Change,

2017-30

Enrollment

Capacity of

School 4 Jan. 2017 2

Projected

2020 3

Projected

2025 3

Projected

2030 3

Elementary Schools (K-5) 1

C.H. Bird 448 436 448 488 +40 440-451

Creekside 482 585 882 1,309 +827 463-506

Eastside 565 552 598 643 +78 457-500

Horizon 588 607 571 560 -28 458-501

Northside 549 494 493 515 -34 476-521

Royal Oaks 513 492 473 448 -65 459-502

Westside 420 444 485 524 +104 428-440

New Thompson Road School n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 532-591

New Grand Avenue School n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 532-591

Total Grades K-5 3,565 3,608 3,952 4,487 +922 4,245-4,603

Middle and High Schools 1

Patrick Marsh Middle School (6-7) 606 637 727 916 +310 725-853

Prairie View Middle School (6-7) 558 666 687 658 +100 725-853

Cardinal Heights Upper Middle School (8-9) 1,119 1,364 1,394 1,599 +480 1,399-1,646

Sun Prairie High School (10-12) 1,695 1,880 2,147 2,284 +589 1,658-2,073

Prairie Phoenix Academy 96 100 100 100 +4 96-119

Total Grades 6-12 4,074 4,647 5,056 5,557 +1,483 4,603-5,544

Total Grades K-12 7,639 8,255 9,007 10,044 2,405 8,848-10,147

NOTES:

1 Projections by school attendance area assume continuation of 2016-17 elementary school or middle school attendance areas, which will not hold

given changes in attendance areas that will result from the two new schools.

2 5th grade students at Eastside and Horizon Elementary Schools were physically housed at Patrick Marsh and Prairie View Middle Schools,

respectively, during the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 school years due to elementary building overcrowding. Still, for purposes of this figure, all 5th

grade enrollment is reported with the appropriate elementary school building.

3 Projected 2020, 2025, and 2030 enrollment assumes open-enrollment-out of SPASD residents, private schooling, and home schooling at similar

rates as in 2017; and do not consider any open enrollment of non-SPASD residents into SPASD schools. To the extent that the SPASD accommodates

open-enrollment-in, actual future enrollment may be higher.

4 School capacities for existing schools are per a 2013 report by Plunkett Raysich Architects. The ranges that are presented in this figure reflect the

“targeted” and “maximum” capacity of each school, as presented in that 2013 report. School capacities for the two new elementary schools are per

Eppstein Uhen Architects.

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Town of Bristol

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Village of

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City ofMadison

Town of

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")205")157

")0

")-15

")85

")241

")106

")277

")1

")-16

")-50

")79

")-2

")338

")4

")21

")-9

")-11

")143

")22

")18

")-23

")-76

")124

")2

")37

")-25")-22

SPASD Boundary



Rivers and Streams


Prepared: July 2017

¯0 0.5 1 Mile

n

n

n

n


Middle (grades 6-7)


Local RoadsHighways

SPASD Schools

Railroads


#

Projected Change in Number of SPASDGrade K-12 Students, 2017-2030

Decline (-76 to -30)

Minor Change (-29 to +35)

Modest Increase (+36 to +100)

Significant Increase (+101 to +338)

# Projected Enrollment Changeby Neighborhood

Note: The SPASD student enrollment projectionson this map do not include any open enrollmentinto schools in the district, and assume constantrates of open enrollment out, private schoolenrollment and home schooling. See theassociated report from MDRoffers Consulting for further explanation on the methodology used tomake the enrollment projections.

Map 3: Projected SPASD Student EnrollmentChange by Neighborhood, 2017-2030

For Grades K-12 (All Schools)

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

n

2

4

5

20

18

6

3

17E

19

1

23

35

7

22

44

32

8

9

37

36

13

24

16

1446

48

53

30

15

56

39

26

25

55W

27

31

29

49

33

41

63

50

43

54

45

12S

38

51

40

34

28

62

59

58E

64

11

47

10

57

4252

60

21

61

12N

55E58W

17W

Creekside ES

C.H. Bird ES

Westside ES

Northside ES

RoyalOaks ES

EastsideES

HorizonES



Town of Bristol

Town of Sun Prairie

Village of

Windsor

City of

Madison

City of Sun Prairie

Town of Hampden

Town of

York

Town of

Medina

Town of

Burke

Town of

Cottage Grove

Town of

Burke

Village of

Cottage Grove

Town of

Columbus

Town of

Blooming

Grove

City ofMadison

Town of

Cottage Grove


151

90

19

N151

19

94

T

Tt

Tt

N

C

V

Vv

Bb

N

A

Vv

T

Lien Rd

Nelson Rd

Baile

y R

d

S Bird St

Town H

all Dr

Bailey Rd

Meadow Ln

Berlin Rd

E Linnerud Dr

W Main St

Hoepker Rd

W Main St

St Albert Dr

N Bird St

Egre Rd

Happy Valley Rd

Branch Rd

Greenway Rd

Vinburn Rd

Mueller Rd

Willburn R

d

Russert R

d

Wilb

urn

Rd

Twin Lane R

d

N G

reenway R

d

Janisc

h Rd

Elder

Ln

Bristol Rd

Nor

way

Rd

Mueller Rd

Twin Lane R

d

Town Hall Dr

Pier

cevil

le Rd

Burke Rd

Thorson N

Felland Rd R

einer Rd

Yelk Rd

Am

eric

an P

kwy

BrazeeLake

N T

hom

pson

Rd

Broa

dway

Dr

S G

rand

A

ve

Cla

rmar

Dr

High

Cro

ssing

Blvd

39

94

Thomas Dr

T

")-4

")9

")-9

")-5

")3

")2

")-12

")2

")16

")66

")1

")22 ")0

")5

")18

")74

")87

")13

")-1

")-22

")75")31

")-6

")3

")33

")0

")39

")9

")43

")52

")21

")46

")-1

")9

")51

")-5

")-2

")31

")-35

")57

")111

")-5

")-17

")0

")-20

")22

")138

")6

")-12

")-16

")39

")-1")34

")-4

")163

")4

")62

")5

")-12

")-17

")1

")-16

")-50

")-14

")-3

")3

"-13

")-11

SPASD Boundary



Rivers and Streams


Prepared: July 2017

¯0 0.5 1 Mile

n Current Elementary (grades K-5)

Local RoadsHighways

SPASD Schools

Railroads


#

Projected Change in Number of SPASDGrade K-5 Students, 2017-2030







Map 4: Projected SPASD Student EnrollmentChange by Neighborhood, 2017-2030For Grades K-5 (Elementary Schools)

n

n

n

n

2

4

5

20

18

6

3

17E

19

1

23

35

7

22

44

32

8

9

37

36

13

24

16

1446

4853

30

15

56

39

26

25

55W

27

31

29

49

33

41

63

50

43

54

45

12S

38

51

40

34

28

62

59

58E

64

11

47

10

57

42 52

60

21

61

12N

55E

58W

17W

PatrickMarsh MS

Prairie View MS

Town of Bristol

Town of Sun Prairie

Village of

Windsor

City of

Madison

City of Sun Prairie

Town of Hampden

Town of

York

Town of

Medina

Town of

Burke

Town of

Cottage Grove

Town of

Burke

Village of

Cottage Grove

Town of

Columbus

Town of

Blooming

Grove

City ofMadison

Town of

Cottage Grove


151

90

19

N151

19

94

T

Tt

Tt

N

C

V

Vv

Bb

N

A

Vv

T

Lien Rd

Nelson Rd

Baile

y R

d

S Bird St

Town H

all Dr

Bailey Rd

Meadow Ln

Berlin Rd

E Linnerud Dr

W Main St

Hoepker Rd

W Main St

St Albert Dr

N Bird St

Egre Rd

Happy Valley Rd

Branch Rd

Greenway Rd

Vinburn Rd

Mueller Rd

Willburn R

d

Russert R

d

Wilb

urn

Rd

Twin Lane R

d

N G

reenway R

d

Janisc

h Rd

Elder

Ln

Bristol Rd

Nor

way

Rd

Mueller Rd

Twin Lane R

d

Town Hall Dr

Pier

cevil

le Rd

Burke Rd

Thorson N

Felland Rd R

einer Rd

Yelk Rd

Am

eric

an P

kwy

BrazeeLake

N T

hom

pson

Rd

Broa

dway

Dr

S G

rand

A

ve

Cla

rmar

Dr

High

Cro

ssing

Blvd

39

94

Thomas Dr

T

")0

")6

")-1

")-3

")-1

")-4

")-1

")0

")16

")9

")1

")12 ")-2

")-3

")-3

")7

")22

")50

")5

")0")31

")-3

")-3 ")4

")-7

")10

")-1

")44

")20

")41

")0

")0

")5

")17

")57

")17

")7

")10

")2

")-6

")15

")4

")-1

")28 ")7

")22

")2

")4

")0

")-2

")12

")3

")-10

")-16

")14

")-1

")-3

")5

")23

")4

")-4

")3

")4

")-18

")-16

")-1

")-4

")2

SPASD Boundary



Rivers and Streams


Prepared: July 2017

¯0 0.5 1 Mile

Middle (grades 6-7)

Local RoadsHighways

SPASD Schools

Railroads

#

Projected Change in Number of SPASDGrade 6-7 Students, 2017-2030








For Grades 6-7 (Middle Schools)

n

2016-17 Middle School AttendanceArea Boundary (Patrick Marsh toeast, Prairie View to west)

n

n

n

2

4

5

20

18

6

3

17E

19

1

23

35

7

22

44

32

8

9

37

36

13

24

16

1446

4853

30

15

56

39

26

25

55W

27

31

29

49

33

41

63

50

43

54

45

12S

38

51

40

34

28

62

59

58E

64

11

47

10

57

42

52

60

21

61

12N

55E

58W

17W


Town of Bristol

Town of Sun Prairie

Village of

Windsor

City of

Madison

City of Sun Prairie

Town of Hampden

Town of

York

Town of

Medina

Town of

Burke

Town of

Cottage Grove

Town of

Burke

Village of

Cottage Grove

Town of

Columbus

Town of

Blooming

Grove

City ofMadison

Town of

Cottage Grove


151

90

19

N151

19

94

T

Tt

Tt

N

C

V

Vv

Bb

N

A

Vv

T

Lien Rd

Nelson Rd

Baile

y R

d

S Bird St

Town H

all Dr

Bailey Rd

Meadow Ln

Berlin Rd

E Linnerud Dr

W Main St

Hoepker Rd

W Main St

St Albert Dr

N Bird St

Egre Rd

Happy Valley Rd

Branch Rd

Greenway Rd

Vinburn Rd

Mueller Rd

Willburn R

d

Russert R

d

Wilb

urn

Rd

Twin Lane R

d

N G

reenway R

d

Janisc

h Rd

Elder

Ln

Bristol Rd

Nor

way

Rd

Mueller Rd

Twin Lane R

d

Town Hall Dr

Pier

cevil

le Rd

Burke Rd

Thorson N

Felland Rd R

einer Rd

Yelk Rd

Am

eric

an P

kwy

BrazeeLake

N T

hom

pson

Rd

Broa

dway

Dr

S G

rand

A

ve

Cla

rmar

Dr

High

Cro

ssing

Blvd

39

94

Thomas Dr

T

")2

")2

")-5

")-2

")-11

")-7

")-12

")1

")15

")2

")1

")17 ")0

")7

")3

")22

")68

")4

")-1

")-14

")40")-1

")5 ")-7

")-8

")11

")-1

")44

")22

")40

")5

")-4

")17

")57

")12

")9

")16

")18

")17

")16

")0

")12

")-1

")28 ")12

")22

")1

")-7

")0

")0

")4

")16

")0

")-19

")16

")3

")-5

")5

")23

")4

")0

")-7

")7

")1

")0

")-2

")-7")4

SPASD Boundary



Rivers and Streams


Prepared: July 2017

¯0 0.5 1 Mile

n Upper Middle (grades 8-9)

Local RoadsHighways

SPASD Schools

Railroads

#









For Grades 8-9 (Upper Middle School)

n

n

n

n

2

4

5

20

18

6

3

17E

19

1

23

35

7

22

44

32

8

9

37

36

13

24

16

1446

4853

30

15

56

39

26

25

55W

27

31

29

49

33

41

63

50

43

54

45

12S

38

51

40

34

28

62

59

58W

64

11

47

10

57

42

52

60

21

61

12N

17W

55E

58E

Sun Prairie HS


Town of Bristol

Town of Sun Prairie

Village of

Windsor

City of

Madison

City of Sun Prairie

Town of Hampden

Town of

York

Town of

Medina

Town of

Burke

Town of

Cottage Grove

Town of

Burke

Village of

Cottage Grove

Town of

Columbus

Town of

Blooming

Grove

City ofMadison

Town of

Cottage Grove


151

90

19

N151

19

94

T

Tt

Tt

N

C

V

Vv

Bb

N

A

Vv

T

Lien Rd

Nelson Rd

Baile

y R

d

S Bird St

Town H

all Dr

Bailey Rd

Meadow Ln

Berlin Rd

E Linnerud Dr

W Main St

Hoepker Rd

W Main St

St Albert Dr

N Bird St

Egre Rd

Happy Valley Rd

Branch Rd

Greenway Rd

Vinburn Rd

Mueller Rd

Willburn R

d

Russert R

d

Wilb

urn

Rd

Twin Lane R

d

N G

reenway R

d

Janisc

h Rd

Elder

Ln

Bristol Rd

Nor

way

Rd

Mueller Rd

Twin Lane R

d

Town Hall Dr

Pier

cevil

le Rd

Burke Rd

Thorson N

Felland Rd R

einer Rd

Yelk Rd

Am

eric

an P

kwy

BrazeeLake

N T

hom

pson

Rd

Broa

dway

Dr

S G

rand

A

ve

Cla

rmar

Dr

High

Cro

ssing

Blvd

39

94

Thomas Dr

T

")2

")6

")-2

")-4

")-1

")-13

")-11

")-1

")17

")-1

")-1

")6 ")0

")9

")2

")19

")4

")0

")-16

")58")15

")26 ")14

")15

")0

")41

")25

")58

")-1

")6

")14

")61

")106

")18

")20

")9

")19

")7

")10

")6

")0 ")5

")4

")67 ")3

")-18

")43

")-3

")-12

")3

")0

")4

")35

")-8

")12

")-2

")16

")8

")12

")-11")0

")26

")12

")-10

")0

")-2

")-9

")-9

SPASD Boundary



Rivers and Streams


Prepared: July 2017

¯0 0.5 1 Mile

n High (grades 10-12)

Local RoadsHighways

SPASD Schools

Railroads

#









For Grades 10-12 (High Schools)

7/21/17

APPENDIX A: HOUSING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY NEIGHBORHOOD, 2017-2030

Neighborhood (As depicted on Map 2)

Residential Growth Factors, General Expectations, and Student Ratios Total Housing Unit Estimates/Projections

2017 2020 2025 2030

1 Rural area at SPASD's extreme north edge. Farmland preservation zoning limits new homes to maximum of one house per 35 acres. No new houses between 2010-2016; none expected between 2017-2030.

11 11 11 11

2 Rural area planned for Agricultural Preservation. Largely A-1 Ag zoning. Cluster of existing housing at intersection

of CTHs N and V. Consultant projects 2 new homes in each 5 year period. 132 134 136 138

3

Area acknowledged as Town growth area by Town Plan and Sun Prairie-Bristol intergovernmental agreement.

Town Plan identifies 350+ unplatted acres as "prime growth area" for single family residential at 1 unit per acre,

plus 450+ undeveloped acres northwest of Happy Valley/N intersection planned for "long-term" growth. There

are no recently approved or pending subdivisions in neighborhood 3, but Burnson's Ridge will begin in 2017 and

other remaining vacant lots are projected to be built by 2020. Consultant projects 50 new single family

residences between 2020 and 2025, and 100 new homes between 2025 and 2030, as other planned development

areas in Bristol to the south become filled and Town continues current residential pacing guideline.

335 376 426 526

4

Rural area, largely planned for Agricultural Preservation and in A-1 zoning. Low Density Business area planned

near USH 151/VV interchange, with perhaps 25 undeveloped acres planned for single family to its west. Project 3

new homes each 5 year period.

96 99 102 105

5

Rural area, largely planned for Agricultural Preservation and in A-1 zoning. Environmental constraints associated

with Maunesha River. Low Density Business area planned near USH 151/VV interchange. Few new homes

projected.

11 11 12 13

6 Aside from Business Park, area is rural with limited housing. Area is earmarked for future Business Park expansion

in Sun Prairie and Bristol plans and intergovernmental agreements. No additional housing anticipated. 16 16 16 16

7

Largely developed residential area planned by Bristol (and agreed by Sun Prairie) for single family residential use

at 1 unit per acre. Bristol identifies undeveloped 50 acre (Schulenburg) lands at NW corner of Egre and N for

short-term development, but property owner has yet to express interest in development. Consultant projects

development of Schulenberg lands in mid to late 2020s.

283 283 293 318

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

8

By intergovernmental agreement and City plans, north part of neighborhood, currently in Bristol, is intended for

predominately single family residential development in Sun Prairie. Within Stage 3 of City's Residential

Development Staging Plan; some lands listed for sale in 2017. Approximately 124 undeveloped acres owned by

Chase Farm Partnership. Combination of Chase Farm and Quamme lands to the northwest (in neighborhood 63)

could yield ~200 single family units and ~200 multiple family units at build out, projected to commence in

neighborhood 8 with 15 homes per year starting after 2025.

358 359 389 499

9

Built out area, not expected to have significant redevelopment through 2030. Potential church relocation could

result in 10-15 single family lots. Given age of housing and location of elementary school in neighborhood, some

3rd generation housing turnover is occurring. Expect area to remain home for a number of students/housing

unit.

532 532 535 542

10

Built out area, but includes north side of West Main Street in City's Tax Increment District (TID) #11. Will be part

of study area for 2017 Central Main Street Corridor Plan. At present, consultant expects one small to mid-size

redevelopment project including multiple family housing there in each 5 year period starting in 2020.

475 475 535 565

11 Built out area, not expected to have redevelopment in next 10-15 years. Given age of housing, some 3rd

generation turnover is occurring. 273 273 273 273

12N City's downtown plan advises additional multiple family housing and mixed use development, although

neighborhood 12N is largely built out with few opportunities for redevelopment. 155 155 155 155

12S

City's downtown plan advises additional multiple family housing and mixed use development. However, this is

largely dependent on porcelain factory relocating; currently not interested in moving and instead is perhaps re-

investing in WI operations. Small scale and senior housing possible before any relocation of porcelain factory

were to occur. Consultant projects 20 to 30 new senior or general multiple family development in each 5 year

period starting in 2020, but does not project relocation of porcelain factory before 2030.

514 514 534 564

13

Interceptor sewer to Meadow Crossing crosses 38 acre vacant site south of High School, which was recently

acquired by the SPASD. Combination of City and Town plans have ~120 vacant acres between that acquired site

and Bailey Road planned for single family housing, but land is outside of the Urban Service Area and in Stage 3 of

City's Residential Development Staging Plan. Consultant expects development after 2030. Lands west of High

School are low and wet.

2 2 2 2

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

14

Meadow Crossing has been adding ~30 new single family homes per year, a pace that is projected until build out

in 2025. Between developed phases I and II, there are 5 unoccupied but move-in ready homes but no vacant lots.

Phases III+, with ~125 single family lots, may have its first homes available in 2017. Possible future residential

development areas, south of Meadow Crossing, are not presently in the City or the Urban Service Area. This

southern area (Buss) is roughly 100 acres and not projected to begin development until around 2025, once

Meadow Crossing is built out. The consultant projects development on the Buss property at a pace similar to

Meadow Crossing up to that point. Turnover in older parts of neighborhood 14 is also expected by the 2025-2030

timeframe.

417 512 572 672

15

Existing subdivisions are built out; given age of housing, there may be modest turnover. Undeveloped lands (45

acres) southeast of Gardens at Willow Brook planned for additional single family housing, though up to 1/2 of

that land may not be developable due to wetlands. Development there anticipated to begin around 2020 and

may include smaller lots. Consultant projects 60 new homes constructed between 2020 and 2030. Also,

consultant projects two additional multiple family housing projects, one each built in 2020-2025 and 2025-2030,

between Highway 19 and railroad tracks. The age of housing in this neighborhood suggests turnover towards the

end of the projection period, particularly among housing developments built in the 1980s and 1990s.

683 686 766 816

16

Area either largely built out or, at the north end, largely undevelopable given Patrick Marsh. Modest single family

housing potential south of projected conservancy area, around 2030. ~25 multiple family units east of City Hall

projected in 2020-2025 period. Neighborhood is experiencing turnover, and presence of elementary school will

retain attraction for new students.

621 624 649 649

17E Planned Town of Sun Prairie farmland preservation area. No significant housing development is anticipated for

neighborhood 17E over the projection period. 24 24 24 24

17W

Town of Sun Prairie Plan advises farmland preservation for this neighborhood area. City plan suggests additional

future single family residential use on 46 acres south of Blooming Meadows, but this land is not in the City or

Urban Service Area and sanitary sewer availability depends on other developments happening before.

Development not expected there after 2030. Lands west of Twin Lane Road identified as "Neighborhood Planning

Area (beyond 2030)" in City Comprehensive Plan. The age of Blooming Meadows suggests housing turnover in

the 2025-2030 period, which will have a positive impact on enrollment.

197 198 200 201

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

18

Town of Sun Prairie Plan advises farmland preservation for most of this neighborhood area. Approximately 22

acre future phases of Savannah Valley anticipated (~15-20 lots), but that development is in transition. Lands west

of Twin Lane Road identified as "Neighborhood Planning Area (beyond 2030)" in City Comprehensive Plan.

Consultant projects 12 additional homes in each 5 year period within this neighborhood. Neighborhood 18 has

sustained relatively high student-per-housing ratios over the past several years.

193 205 217 229

19

Town of Sun Prairie Plan advises farmland preservation for most of this neighborhood area. 12 acres planned for

future residential use west of CTH VV and T intersection. Consultant projects 4 additional homes in each 5 year

period.

154 158 162 166

20

Different communities have different planned futures for this area. North of Bailey Road, Town Plan advises

additional rural single family housing and City of Sun Prairie Plan advises low-density suburban single family

housing (land not presently in Urban Service Area). South of Bailey Road, Town plan mostly advises farmland

preservation, while City of Sun Prairie Plan identifies as "Neighborhood Planning Area (beyond 2030)" and City of

Madison Plan identifies as a peripheral (long-range) planning area. Consultant projects limited development

through 2030, but neighborhood could have significant longer-term residential growth. Age of existing

subdivisions suggests turnover there in the projection period.

298 301 309 314

21

Neighborhood built out, but within TID #11. Consultant projects three multiple family redevelopment projects

through 2030. Will be part of study area for 2017 Central Main Street Corridor Plan. Modest turnover occurring,

but additional multiple family projects likely to result in declining student-per-housing unit ratios neighborhood-

wide.

275 345 465 495

22

City of Sun Prairie neighborhood plans suggest future industrial development around Treatment Plant. City of

Sun Prairie and City of Madison plans suggest "Future Neighborhood Planning Area" to south of Plant, but Town

of Sun Prairie plans suggests mostly agricultural preservation there. Consultant projects very limited housing

development in neighborhood through 2030.

25 26 27 27

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

23

Includes central 83 acres of ~160 acre undeveloped McCoy farm, which is identified in City of Sun Prairie

Comprehensive Plan for "Low Density Residential" development in near-term (3-4 units per acre). Consultant

assumes a residential development density of about 2.5 units per acre, given wet soils and possibility of some

non-residential uses. With this density, these 83 acres could yield ~200 units, including some multiple family in

NW area. Consultant projects development of McCoy farm to begin close to 2025 to roughly coincide with build

out of Smith's Crossing to south. Southern sections of neighborhood 23 are identified in "Phase 2" planning area

within Madison's Northeast Neighborhood, with this area not expected to be planned in detail soon or developed

before 2030. When land develops, that land will develop in Madison by intergovernmental agreement.

Combination of new housing and existing 1990s housing turnover are expected to contribute to high student-per-

housing unit ratios.

194 197 262 447

24

Madison's Northeast Neighborhood Development Plan identifies area for future low/medium density residential

development, with small portion of neighborhood 24 added to Urban Service Area in 2010. While sewer

interceptor is in neighborhood area, water main would have to be extended east from Reiner Road. Consultant

projects beginning of City housing development late in 2020-2025 period. Consultant anticipates future student-

per-housing unit ratios will be similar to Smith's Crossing and other City of Madison neighborhoods in other

school districts.

36 36 76 276

25

Madison's Northeast Neighborhood Development Plan identifies area for future medium/high density residential

development around a commercial center at Reiner/Lien. As neighborhoods 26 and 27 to south develop, utilities

will expand north to this neighborhood. Consultant does not project beginning of housing development around

or after 2030.

3 3 3 3

26

Madison's Northeast Neighborhood Development Plan identifies area for mainly future medium/high density

residential development around a mixed use centers at Reiner/T and Reiner/Lien. Much of neighborhood 26 was

added to Urban Service Area in 2010. Road, sewer, and water already in Reiner Road to serve this area. There

are no imminent development projects, but there have been some recent development inquiries including for the

80 acre site across Reiner Road from Woods Farm. Consultant projects development of these 80 acres between

2020 and 2025, yielding ~150 single family lots and ~125 multiple family units. Later projects may include an

additional single family housing to the south of these 80 acres, transitioning to dense multiple family

development closer to CTH T. Consultant expects this market to develop after 2025 and to continue briskly once

it begins.

8 8 283 553

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

27

Madison's Northeast Neighborhood Development Plan identifies area for future low/medium/high density

residential development around mixed use centers at Reiner/T and Reiner/Lien. All but the north edge of

neighborhood 27 was added to the Urban Service Area in 2010. Road, sewer, and water already in Reiner Rd to

serve this area. Woods Farm, a 60 acre development platted in 2017, expected to include 109 single family

homes, likely 22 duplex/condominium units, and 192 rental apartment units. Phase I to include ~40 single family

lots plus all sites for the condominium and apartment units. Consultant projects 30 single family homes per year

through 2020 plus completion of all 22 condominium units and 96 multiple family units. Consultant projects build

out of entire Woods Farm shortly after 2020. Consultant projects ~80 acres south of Woods Farm as next

development project in neighborhood 27, and development commencing between 2020 and 2025 as Woods

Farm builds out, with development mix and density similar to Woods Farm. Within these 80 acres, consultant

projects ~ 160 single family units and ~150 duplex and multiple family units. Consultant believes that planned

multiple family development south near Highway T will commence after 2025 with pace dependent on continued

viability of multiple family market. Student-per-housing unit ratios from initial phases of housing in neighborhood

27 are expected to resemble current ratios in neighborhood 45, which are high.

11 145 450 690

28

Madison's Northeast Neighborhood Development Plan identifies area for future low/ medium density residential

development. Southeast corner of neighborhood 28 added to Urban Service Area in 2010. Land has been for sale

for some time but price and/or proximity to Badger Interchange and existing development may be impeding

interest. Consultant projects development to begin after 2025, consisting predominately of smaller lot single

family housing and duplex/townhouse style development.

19 19 19 194

29

Madison's Northeast Neighborhood Development Plan identifies area for future residential development of

different densities, with highest densities along Lien Road. For west side of neighborhood 29, water service is

available on Lien Road and land can be sewered from north. However, this land is not yet in the Urban Service

Area or City and land owner may not be interested in annexing (not likely eventual developer). The southeast

corner of neighborhood 29 was added to Urban Service Area in 2010. As neighborhood 27 (including Woods

Farm) develops, utilities will extend to neighborhood 29 to its east. Given projected activity in adjacent

neighborhoods between 2017 and 2025, consultant does not project beginning of housing development in

neighborhood 29 until after 2025. After 2025, consultant projects pace and mix similar to Autumn Lake or Woods

Farm.

17 17 17 217

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

30

Neighborhood 30 is split between the City of Madison's Felland Neighborhood, Northeast Neighborhood "phase

1", and Northeast Neighborhood "phase 2" planning areas. The southeast ¼ is in Village at Autumn Lake

development, platted for 153 single family homes, 16 townhouse units, and 36 units in mixed use buildings. The

consultant projects development on 1/4 of these units in the 2021 to 2025 timeframe, 1/3 in the 2026 to 2030

timeframe, and the remainder after 2030. Beyond Autumn Lake, the majority of neighborhood 30 is owned by a

quarrying interest. Consultant expects further residential development after 2030.

2 2 53 121

31

West of Felland Road, the Village at Autumn Lake is entitled for 763 housing units, divided as follows: 389 single

family, 22 two family units, 56 4-unit and townhouse units, and 296 multiple family units. Phase 1, developed in

2016, included 19 single family lots, lots for 8 duplex units, lots for 9 townhouse units, and two larger multiple

family and mixed use lots. As of March 2017, 6 vacant single family lots and 3 unoccupied but move-in ready

homes remained in Phase 1. Phases 2 through 4, under construction, expected to result in ~43 additional single

family lots and a ~240 rental unit project. Within neighborhood 31, the consultant projects occupancy of 30 new

single family units per year through 2020 and 35 new single family units per year until build out. The consultant

also projects completion of ~240 multiple family units and 17 duplex and townhouse units between 2017 and

2020, and 10 duplex units and 160 multiple family units between 2020 and 2025 (representing the projected build

out of attached building types). The consultant projects that students-per-housing unit will be similar to Smith's

Crossing at its same stage of evolution.

9 306 671 815

32

Undeveloped lands west of Interstate are not planned or zoned for housing. Lands east of the Interstate are in

the City's Nelson Neighborhood Development Plan area. The High Crossing commercial area is densely

developed, but lands to east are beyond a ridge and therefore must be served by sewer and road from southeast

and have water pressure issues. These lands are planned for mixture of residential development types. City staff

expects significant development in Autumn Lake (neighborhood 31) first, and possible amendments to Nelson

Neighborhood Plan before remainder of neighborhood 32 develops. Consultant projects additional multiple

family residential development in neighborhood 32 to begin around 2025. Preliminary concept plan suggests an

opportunity for between 350 and 450 additional multiple family units.

276 276 376 476

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

33

Also in the City's Nelson Neighborhood Development Plan area. The High Crossing commercial area is densely

developed, but lands to east are beyond a ridge and therefore must be served by sewer from southeast. These

lands are planned for mixture of residential development types, but mostly multiple family. City staff expects

significant development in Autumn Lake (neighborhood 31) first, and possible amendments to Nelson

Neighborhood Plan before the remainder of neighborhood 33 develops. Still, The Lancaster Apartments (195

units) will be built by 2020, and consultant projects one additional multiple family project of similar size in each 5-

year period thereafter. Commencement of single family development further east/north of the Village at Autumn

Lake is projected after 2025. Recent enrollment numbers for neighborhoods 32 and 33 suggest about 0.20 K-12

students per multiple family housing unit.

287 482 602 762

34

Within City's Rattman Neighborhood Development Plan area. Mostly developed with office/commercial uses.

American Center to complete an updated Master Plan in 2017. That plan may suggest some multiple

family/mixed use development potential on some remaining site in neighborhood 34. Still, at this time, the

consultant does not project additional housing in neighborhood 34.

- - - -

35

Two largely undeveloped multiple family sites remain east of American Parkway; consultant expects their build

out by 2020. American Center to complete an updated Master Plan in 2017. Developers may be considering more

housing in American Center than previously planned; first indications of this include the Buttonwood Apartments,

which will include 154 rental units by 2020. Consultant projects 60-80 more multiple family units in each 5-year

period.

872 1,026 1,106 1,166

36

Site of the former "The Crossing" development, unlikely to occur in its prior configuration but same land likely to

be commercial in use once developed. ~60-100 units of multiple family housing projected in each 5-year period

after 2020. Only southern part of neighborhood in Urban Service Area, along Nelson Road. Lands to east along

Nelson Road are planned for industrial use. Very low student counts expected to continue.

66 66 166 226

37

With the recent replat of eastern areas near railroad tracks, there remain ~393 housing units left to build in

Smith’s Crossing. These include ~285 single family homes, ~43 townhouse and duplex units, and ~65 multiple

family units. Approximately 40 single family units have been built per year recently (50 in 2015 and 30 in 2016).

The consultant projects that pace to continue until build out of the entire neighborhood around 2025.

752 998 1,145 1,145

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

38

Includes the northwest 44 acres and southeast 33 acres of ~160 acre undeveloped McCoy farm, which is

identified in City of Sun Prairie Comprehensive Plan for "Low Density Residential" development in near-term (3-4

units per acre). This land is in the next stage of the City's Residential Staging Plan. At 2.5 units per acre (given

wetlands and possible non-residential uses), these 77 acres could yield ~200 units, including some multiple family

in NW area. Consultant projects development of McCoy farm to begin after 2020 to roughly coincide with build

out of Smith's Crossing. New construction and turnover of 1990s subdivisions indicates increasing student-per-

housing unit ratios towards the end of the projection period.

550 550 645 845

39

Neighborhood mostly built out, with redevelopment not anticipated through 2030. Given 1980s vintage of Prairie

Enterprise and good location and amenities, neighborhood has begun to see turnover, expected to taper over

projection period.

316 318 318 318

40 Neighborhood built out, but parts are within TID #11. Multiple family redevelopment anticipated between 2017-

2030. Consultant projects 30-50 new units per projection period. 556 621 671 701

41

Neighborhood built out, but parts are within TID #11. Multiple family redevelopment anticipated between 2017-

2030. City in 2017 permitted the 74-unit McHenry Apartments (1 and 2-bedroom workforce housing units).

Consultant projects 50-75 new units per 5-year period between 2020 and 2030.

829 903 963 1,003

42

~25-30 single family homes constructed per year in neighborhood 52's part of West Prairie Village over last

several years. Consultant expects this demand to transfer to neighborhood 42. Among all West Prairie Village

phases in neighborhood 42, remaining unbuilt units include about 100 single family homes (final numbers of

single family housing may change due to wetland delineation) and 34 duplex units. There are 666 entitled

multiple family units along Main Street that will be split between neighborhoods 42 and 43; ~260 units are

projected within neighborhood 42 but no immediate construction plans. Consultant projects most single family

and duplex units built out shortly after 2020, with further multiple family units shortly before 2025.

38 111 231 391

43

The City's Westside/Comprehensive Plan calls for a mix of retail, office, multiple family residential and mixed use

development, with capacity for ~920 total multiple-family, senior, townhouse, and other attached housing units.

The 228-unit Springs of Sun Prairie was recently approved and should be occupied by 2018. Another multiple

family project along West Main Street could yield up to 666 multiple family units, with ~400 of these units within

neighborhood 43. Consultant projects commencement of this project shortly before 2025, with build out after

2030.

8 236 386 536

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2017 2020 2025 2030

44

Area acknowledged as Town growth area under Sun Prairie-Bristol intergovernmental agreement. Bristol plans

area as "prime growth area" for single family residential at 1 unit per acre, with ~80 unplatted acres remaining.

Consultant projects build out of existing phases of Bristol Gardens before 2020, and new phase west of Golf

Course with first of 40 homes by 2019. Consultant also projects development of 40 acres at northwest corner of

Bird and Egre for 32 single family homes by 2025, based on a recent concept plan. The completion of these

projects will represent the build out of neighborhood 44, assuming the Golf Course does not redevelop for

housing.

215 247 299 299

45

~20-25 single family permits issued per year over last few years, with an increase to 38 single family permits

issued in 2016. 284 multiple family units (Prairie Lakes) will be started in 2017 and completed before

2020. Consultant projects build out of remaining single family units by 2020, and continued high student/housing

unit totals. Consultant also projects development of Outlot 5 of Western Sunset Estates for ~50 multiple family

units between 2020 and 2025. Area to south of Golden Meadows/Fox Point is mainly planned for commercial

development.

169 473 523 523

46

Undeveloped parts of this neighborhood will develop in City of Sun Prairie by intergovernmental agreement. The

City's Westside/Comprehensive Plan calls for mainly low-density residential development. Providence is

experiencing ~5 new single family homes/year. City projects ~500 single family homes and ~50 townhouse units

on remaining undeveloped lands in neighborhood 46. Most of this land (Bostad) is not presently in City or Urban

Service Area and land owner has not expressed development interest. Still, these lands are indicated as the next

development stage in the City comprehensive plan. Consultant projects development to begin on Bostad lands

close to 2030; new housing units from Bostad lands not included in projections.

436 468 516 516

47

Older rural, built out subdivisions. 1st wave of turnover likely nearing completion. 9 acre vacant farmstead site

at Rattman/Hoepker intersection all that is left for development; may be subdivided in Burke by

intergovernmental agreement. Consultant projects this last development in neighborhood 47 between 2025 and

2030.

127 127 133 141

48 Neighborhood almost entirely built out. Approved 32 unit condo project along West Main Street projected to be

constructed after 2020. Given ages of subdivisions, consultant expects turnover to begin after about 2025. 1,003 1,003 1,035 1,035

49

City plans call for immediate or next-stage development with a mix of low- and higher density residential use, but

area actually developing at a lower density to date. Consultant projects build out of Ironwood Estates by 2020.

The new elementary school may drive development interest in Western Sunset Estates, which the consultant

projects between 2020 and 2025.

59 83 112 112

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2017 2020 2025 2030

50 This is where the bulk of residential building in the Town of Burke has occurred since 2010. Limited capacity for

additional development. 227 231 231 231

51 No additional residential development anticipated, but age of neighborhood suggests turnover early in period. 156 156 156 156

52 Neighborhood is built out. West Prairie Village expansion areas are instead in neighborhood 42. 159 166 166 166

53 Neighborhood is built out, with redevelopment not expected over period. Age of housing plus neighborhood

school may result in neighborhood turnover and steady student-per-housing unit rates. 489 489 489 489

54 Neighborhood built out, with redevelopment not expected over period. Age of housing may result in

neighborhood turnover and steady student-per-housing unit rates. 642 642 642 642

55E Neighborhood built out. Age of housing plus the presence of a new elementary school in the next door

neighborhood 57 will likely drive near-term turnover to new families. 140 140 140 140

55W Neighborhood largely built out, but small areas north of Shonas Highlands and west of The Reserve may develop

with single family residences between 2020 and 2030. 272 287 292 292

56

Windsor's plan advises "conservation residential" use over ~30 acres east of Migration Path--perhaps 20

additional homes. Consultant projects build out of Migration Path by 2020. High student-per-housing unit counts

in neighborhood expected to moderate over time.

26 32 42 52

57

The Reserve is a new 313 lot single family residential subdivision. The Reserve spans neighborhoods 57 and 62,

with Broadway Drive as the dividing line. Its first homes are expected to be occupied by 2018, around the

Thompson Road elementary school site in neighborhood 57. Consultant projects 18 new units per year until

2020, after which the pace is expected to increase to 22 units per year. Build out of the portion of The Reserve in

neighborhood 57 is expected before 2025. The Reserve is projected to accommodate "move-up" housing, similar

to Shonas Highlands to the south, but the presence of new school will likely enhance student totals to approach

some of the highest in the SPASD--at least for that portion of The Reserve in neighborhood 57. North of The

Reserve but still in neighborhood 57 are ~67 undeveloped acres along Egre Road, including 40 acres in Windsor

and 27 acres in Bristol. The consultant does not project this area to develop before 2030.

- 66 166 166

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

58E

8 single family permits issued in Liberty Square as a whole in 2016, which is an increase from the ~5 in prior years.

The consultant projects an even higher pace with the implementation of the more conventionally platted Liberty

Square West Addition. In addition to the 5 remaining vacant lots in prior phases, the West Addition includes 85

vacant lots in neighborhood 58 (west of N Pine St). Consultant projects 5 permits per year within neighborhood

58 from roughly 2022 to 2025 and 12 permits per year thereafter, once portions east of N Pine St in

neighborhood 61 are filled with new homes. Student-per-housing unit ratios ought to remain high given new

single family housing and proximity to schools.

124 129 144 204

58W Neighborhood built out with no redevelopment expected over projection period. 177 177 177 177

59 Neighborhood built out, with redevelopment not expected over period. Age of housing has resulted in recent

neighborhood turnover at grades K-5. 350 350 350 350

60

Neighborhood built out, with redevelopment not expected over period. Private park in Vandenburg Heights

could be divided up to 10 single family lots. Age of housing and location of neighborhood school has resulted in

high elementary school enrollment and neighborhood turnover, which consultant projects to subside as 2nd

generation now seems firmly established here.

295 295 305 305

61

In addition to the two remaining multiple family lots, Liberty Square West Addition includes 38 vacant single

family lots in neighborhood 61 (east of N Pine St). Consultant projects 5 single family permits per year in this

neighborhood until 2025 build out, plus one multiple family project by 2020. Large existing senior housing

component will keep student-per-housing unit ratios low.

517 561 579 603

62

Neighborhood 62 includes later phases of The Reserve, where the first homes are expected to be occupied

around 2025. The projected construction pace is 22 units per year until build out occurs around 2030. The ~160

undeveloped acres to the north and east of The Reserve in neighborhood 62 are currently within the Town of

Bristol. The City's Future Land Use Plan calls for low density residential development there, similar to The

Reserve. These lands are not yet in the Urban Service Area. Student ratios for neighborhood 62 are expected to

be slightly lower than in neighborhood 57 due to expected higher-end homes on the east end of The Reserve.

- - 28 138

7/21/17



2017 2020 2025 2030

63

22 single family lots in Creek View Crossing projected to be built upon by 2020. Stoneridge Commons projected

to include ~100 multiple family units along Bird St, with building starting later in 2017 and completed by 2020.

North part of neighborhood by intergovernmental agreement and City plans is intended for predominately single

family residential development in Sun Prairie. These include ~40 undeveloped acres owned by Quamme

Brothers, SE of the Egre/Bird intersection. Combination of Quamme and Chase Farm lands to east (in

neighborhood 8) could yield ~200 single family units and ~200 multiple family units at build out, but this

development is not projected to begin in neighborhood 63 until about 2030.

402 513 524 524

64 Neighborhood is built out. May begin to see significant turnover starting around 2025 given subdivision ages. 163 164 164 164

TOTAL 17,058 19,404 22,442 25,611

7/21/17

APPENDIX B: SPASD ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY GRADE GROUP AND NEIGHBORHOOD, 2018-2030 N

eig

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3-7

) Grades K-12 Grades K-5 Grades 6-7 Grades 8-9 Grades 10-12

Sept. 2018 2020 2025 2030 Sept. 2018 2020 2025 2030 Sept. 2018 2020 2025 2030 Sept. 2018 2020 2025 2030 Sept. 2018 2020 2025 2030

1 3 4 4 4 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1

2 34 38 31 30 17 16 15 14 6 7 5 6 5 7 5 6 6 8 5 6

3 202 211 222 260 85 86 89 100 26 30 34 39 33 34 34 47 58 60 64 74

4 38 37 26 22 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 4 8 6 4 4 12 14 8 6

5 22 20 16 9 11 8 3 2 3 5 3 1 3 4 3 1 5 4 7 4

6 3 3 4 4 1 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1

7 135 127 92 110 41 40 38 45 19 14 15 16 24 20 15 19 50 54 25 30

8 174 165 167 197 65 65 66 75 28 25 27 35 35 29 27 35 46 47 47 52

9 262 285 284 285 135 133 134 136 42 43 43 43 34 45 43 43 52 64 64 62

10 146 150 158 147 70 71 75 73 20 24 27 23 20 24 21 23 35 31 35 28

11 145 142 131 124 62 60 60 60 22 22 19 19 23 22 19 19 38 38 33 26

12N 56 59 53 53 27 26 26 25 8 7 8 8 7 5 7 7 14 20 12 13

12S 39 38 37 37 13 14 15 15 7 6 6 6 9 8 7 7 11 10 9 9

13 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0

14 265 310 349 437 115 128 149 181 43 51 51 67 42 54 57 74 65 77 92 114

15 288 292 349 392 139 137 161 180 42 48 54 57 41 48 54 57 67 58 80 98

16 337 334 337 331 158 150 149 143 55 56 52 52 50 56 52 52 74 72 84 84

17E 5 6 7 7 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

17W 105 95 66 68 33 27 31 35 19 11 7 9 21 20 10 10 31 37 18 14

18 141 144 128 117 57 57 52 48 20 21 20 18 26 23 22 18 38 43 35 32

19 45 40 30 29 11 11 11 13 7 5 3 4 10 6 5 5 18 18 11 7

20 120 120 130 143 56 54 59 66 17 18 20 22 19 18 19 22 28 30 32 33

21 183 191 207 198 93 86 93 84 28 28 37 32 29 36 28 30 33 41 49 52

22 10 10 9 8 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 2

23 63 53 62 146 18 16 29 86 8 7 8 18 14 9 8 20 22 21 17 23

24 3 2 21 139 1 1 13 75 0 0 3 22 0 0 2 22 1 1 3 21

25 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

26 0 0 98 241 0 0 48 111 0 0 17 44 0 0 14 44 0 0 18 41

27 23 50 182 279 11 25 90 138 3 7 27 41 4 7 27 41 5 11 38 59

28 4 5 7 82 1 3 3 39 1 0 3 16 0 1 1 16 1 1 1 13

29 0 1 2 92 0 1 1 43 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 14

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30 5 5 27 75 2 2 13 35 1 1 4 11 1 1 4 12 2 2 6 17

31 26 60 211 338 13 31 107 163 4 9 37 57 4 9 30 57 5 11 37 61

32 51 51 60 81 25 25 34 43 8 8 11 14 10 8 8 14 9 10 8 10

33 48 62 81 118 25 34 42 65 9 10 15 19 6 10 12 19 8 10 12 15

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

35 164 180 188 210 98 103 111 117 26 31 33 35 21 26 22 35 19 21 22 23

36 4 5 16 28 1 2 7 14 0 1 2 5 1 1 3 6 1 1 3 5

37 321 414 555 561 167 200 229 229 54 70 86 92 39 60 92 92 61 85 149 149

38 68 66 81 123 28 28 39 59 10 11 10 17 10 11 13 21 20 17 19 25

39 153 151 149 140 74 70 64 57 23 25 24 22 21 25 24 22 35 30 38 38

40 250 255 238 242 121 118 114 112 34 37 34 35 37 40 34 35 58 59 57 60

41 289 298 303 311 133 135 135 140 48 45 48 45 40 50 48 50 68 68 72 75

42 23 52 96 125 13 30 51 63 4 9 16 23 3 7 16 23 3 6 13 16

43 22 44 66 96 13 26 39 54 4 7 12 16 3 6 8 16 3 5 8 11

44 128 128 124 100 35 37 45 39 19 17 16 18 27 20 18 18 47 54 45 25

45 210 303 346 297 101 122 124 120 33 57 51 43 31 51 65 44 44 73 106 90

46 229 238 234 203 117 117 107 85 34 33 36 31 34 38 36 30 45 49 54 56

47 36 34 33 35 16 15 15 16 6 5 5 6 4 6 5 6 9 7 8 8

48 592 612 580 569 280 261 238 259 92 100 93 83 92 110 83 83 128 140 166 145

49 32 55 78 73 17 29 32 29 5 7 14 11 4 7 13 11 5 11 18 21

50 170 171 132 120 65 62 55 51 29 23 21 18 34 30 21 18 42 55 35 32

51 90 90 92 86 42 42 39 37 12 16 14 12 12 12 14 12 24 20 25 23

52 80 86 80 66 41 38 30 27 14 15 13 10 12 15 13 10 12 18 23 20

53 287 293 289 289 133 132 127 127 42 44 44 44 48 44 44 44 65 73 73 73

54 336 338 357 350 165 166 166 160 53 57 54 54 45 52 52 52 73 63 86 85

55E 108 106 101 85 45 43 41 35 15 17 17 15 21 18 18 16 28 28 25 19

55W 140 133 130 110 60 57 55 46 17 17 18 17 23 19 20 19 40 40 37 28

56 15 19 30 33 10 10 13 14 2 4 5 5 2 3 5 5 2 2 8 9

57 24 55 153 144 13 30 63 58 4 10 27 22 3 7 23 22 4 9 40 43

58E 94 113 133 164 35 40 44 53 23 27 29 32 18 27 22 27 18 19 38 52

58W 91 92 77 69 40 33 33 33 12 12 9 8 13 20 15 12 26 27 20 16

59 154 165 158 135 72 70 63 56 25 28 25 21 23 32 25 21 34 35 46 37

60 327 316 296 259 147 133 119 107 55 50 46 40 50 53 49 40 76 80 82 73

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61 68 70 75 84 29 28 29 30 11 11 14 15 13 11 14 15 15 20 17 24

62 0 0 0 99 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 18

63 167 182 152 139 71 72 63 58 31 31 24 21 27 36 26 21 38 44 39 39

64 86 80 81 92 35 33 38 43 12 13 11 15 13 13 11 13 26 21 21 21

Total 7,743 8,255 9,007 10,044 3,522 3,608 3,952 4,487 1,211 1,303 1,415 1,575 1,205 1,364 1,394 1,599 1,805 1,980 2,247 2,384

Note: Projected 2018 enrollment is based on a straight-line computation between actual 2017 counts of SPASD resident enrollment and MDRoffers Consulting’s 2020 enrollment projection for each neighborhood. Open enrollment of

non-SPASD residents into SPASD schools not included.

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