supplement iv dendrogram the undetected early european ... · charts on the gisaid phylogenomic...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Investigating the Undetected Early European Covid-19 Outbreak between December 2019 and February 2020 and the Failures of Public Policy to Manage the Epidemic
May 2020
By Prof Dr Peer EdererGlobal Food and Agribusiness Network
The author can be contacted on LinkedinAll documentation can also be accessed on the author’s homepage www.foodandagribusiness.org
Supplement IVCharts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2
All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the sourceNextstrain.org
![Page 2: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1) The SARS-CoV-2 global phylogenetic dendrogram on 14 May 2020
![Page 3: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
2) The main Chinese clade
The city of Wuhan – where the firstcases were confirmed
![Page 4: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
3) A super-spreader event in Wuhan on 24 December: the Wuhan Lights Festival ?
Happy Valley ParkLight Show24 December30 known branches
Spanish descendant>
<Thai descendant
<Saudi Arabiandescendant
![Page 5: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
4) A super-spreader event in USA Washington State: Kirkland Life Care Center
WA-Snohomish County,35 year old who returnedfrom Wuhan on 15 January,tested positive on 20 January
Two British Columbia infections chains in Canada
Kirkland Life Care Center, super-spreadingend of Januaryto 29 known branches
![Page 6: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
5) Most European infections occur on the A2 clade which separated from the China outbreakalready in November 2019 and which is characterized by the D614G Mutation
403 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak
1817 direct descendantsfrom the parallel outbreak in Europe which remainedundetected until end ofFebruary
A2 cladeforkedalready in November 2019
![Page 7: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
6) The European infections on the Europe subsample only
673 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak
2982 direct descendantsfrom the paralleloutbreak in Europe whichremained undetected
![Page 8: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
7) The European A2 clade is characterized by the D614G mutation
Yellow: D614G mutationGreen: D614D mutation
![Page 9: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
8) The North American infections
1180 direct descendantsfrom the China outbreak
2693 direct descendantsfrom the undetectedEuropean outbreak
![Page 10: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
8) The North American infections in California versus New York
California sequenced mutations New York sequenced mutations
![Page 11: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
10) The outbreak in Spain
The Spanish outbreak isstrongly clustered on oneEuropean clade
Wuhan descendant cluster
![Page 12: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
11) The outbreak in France
The French outbreak isclustered inParis (lower arrow) and in the Alps (upper arrow)
![Page 13: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
12) The outbreaks in Belgium and Netherlands
Spanish outbreak stronglyclustered on oneEuropean branch
Wuhan Light Festival cluster
Belgium sequenced mutations Netherlands sequenced mutations
![Page 14: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
13) The outbreaks in Austria and Germany
Spanish outbreak stronglyclustered on oneEuropean branch
Wuhan Light Festival cluster
Austria sequenced mutations Germany sequenced mutations
![Page 15: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
14) The Bavarian Webasto cases on 28 January 2020
The Webasto cousin cladeinfected also cases in Finland,Belgium and Brazil
The Webasto 33- year old man, first case
The Chinese business woman at Webasto
![Page 16: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
15) The mutations of the Webasto case and sequences found in Graz in late March
![Page 17: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
16) The first confirmed Italian case in Codogno
The German Webasto case
The Italian Codogno case
The common ancestorto both cases at the
beginning of January
![Page 18: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
17) A large-scale super-spreading event: The ISPO Sports Business Trade Fair in Munich?
![Page 19: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
18) A large-scale super-spreading event: The Munich Fabric Start 2020 Trade Fair ?
![Page 20: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
19) The joint infection activity of Paris and New York: the New York Fashion Week ?
Two super-spreadingevents which infectedNew York and ParissimultaneouslyGreen dots = ParisRed dots = New York
![Page 21: Supplement IV Dendrogram The Undetected Early European ... · Charts on the GISAID Phylogenomic Dendrogram of SARS-CoV-2 All charts copied as of 14 May 2020 from the source Nextstrain.org](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070920/5fb952bfbd831b3e392a790e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
20) Summary of proposed assignment of super-spreading events to the dendrogram
Men‘s and Women‘s Fashion Show New York 03-12 Feb
Munich Fabric Start 2020 Trade Fair 04-06 Feb
Munich ISPO Sports Business Trade Fair 26-29 Jan
Four Hills Tournament Innsbruck 03/04 Jan
Webasto case
Codogno case
Gangelt outbreak
Santa Claus in Innsbruck01-06 December 2019