supplementary online material the iberian peninsula as a …€¦ · bergmann et al. the iberian...

Supplementary online material

The Iberian Peninsula as a potential source for the plant species pool in Germany under projected

climate change

Jessica Bergmann, Sven Pompe, Ralf Ohlemüller, Martin Freiberg, Stefan Klotz, Ingolf Kühn

Jessica Bergmann( ), Sven Pompe, Stefan Klotz, Ingolf Kühn

UFZ, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Community Ecology,

Theodor-Lieser-Str. 4, 06120 Halle/Saale, Germany

e-mail: [email protected]

Jessica Bergmann, Martin Freiberg

Department of Systematic Botany, University of Leipzig, Johannisallee 21, 04103 Leipzig, Germany

Jessica Bergmann

Present address: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research

Division (IMK-IFU), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467 Garmisch-

Partenkirchen, Germany

Ralf Ohlemüller

Institute of Hazard and Risk Research (IHRR) and School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences,

Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom

Bergmann et al. The Iberian Peninsula as a potential source for the plant species pool in Germany

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Table S1 Current ranges of climate elements for 1865 grid cells in Germany (1961-90) for six climate types (cluster), minimum, mean, maximum value of climate variables: ggd: growing degree days >5 °C [°C], pa: mean annual precipitation [mm], pd: annual water deficit [mm], tc: mean temperature coldest month [°C], tm: mean annual temperature [°C].

climate type gdd pa pd tc tm 1 Min: 1595.00 479.17 -189.95 -4.59 7.84 Mean: 1819.82 599.28 -130.93 -2.01 8.65 Max: 2038.00 761.80 -81.56 -0.70 9.49

2 Min: 453.00 796.53 -44.97 -7.00 2.04 Mean: 1192.15 1039.29 -17.54 -4.37 5.80 Max: 1540.00 1444.15 -1.98 -2.58 7.48

3 Min: 1500.00 644.41 -138.26 -2.42 7.61 Mean: 1746.71 778.62 -81.58 -0.87 8.72 Max: 2040.00 1046.11 -32.73 0.98 9.61

4 Min: 1208.00 551.51 -119.81 -4.95 5.67 Mean: 1568.88 718.15 -69.50 -3.31 7.46 Max: 1791.00 951.21 -24.56 -2.18 8.29

5 Min: 1412.00 723.74 -77.93 -3.74 7.12 Mean: 1718.11 921.96 -39.01 -2.70 8.12 Max: 1959.00 1324.46 -10.99 -1.16 8.95

6 Min: 1850.00 572.31 -194.72 -1.54 9.06 Mean: 2028.19 741.90 -120.07 -0.05 9.78 Max: 2298.00 875.70 -79.56 1.06 10.59


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Table S2 Projected future ranges of climate variables for 1865 grid cells in Germany (2071-80, SEDG) for six climate types (cluster), minimum, mean, maximum value of climate variables: ggd: growing degree days >5 °C [°C], pa: mean annual precipitation [mm], pd: annual water deficit [mm], tc: mean temperature coldest month [°C], tm: mean annual temperature [°C].

climate type gdd pa pd tc tm 1 Min: 858.00 862.33 -87.94 -3.29 4.76 Mean: 1648.99 1089.78 -44.55 -0.68 8.23 Max: 2120.00 1431.99 -12.77 1.05 9.96

2 Min: 1665.00 577.54 -217.29 -1.21 8.18 Mean: 2032.04 730.68 -143.94 0.20 9.76 Max: 2295.00 990.57 -53.78 1.21 10.63

3 Min: 1954.00 730.19 -206.78 0,32 9.80 Mean: 2292.18 877.94 -114.87 1.61 10.84 Max: 2664.00 1261.51 -46.39 3.23 12.10

4 Min: 2278.00 491.99 -372.38 1.77 11.05 Mean: 2565.59 664.83 -250.50 2.84 11.85 Max: 2973.00 795.17 -188.53 3.95 13.11

5 Min: 2078.00 512.19 -241.04 0,14 10.12 Mean: 2285.98 649.16 -192.26 1.42 10.84 Max: 2556.00 799.02 -138.34 2.45 11.54

6 Min: 2260.00 461.75 -298.44 -0.79 10.82 Mean: 2462.57 568.89 -235.98 1.17 11.32 Max: 2673.00 699.74 -168.29 2.25 11.88


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Table S3 Projected future ranges of climate variables for 1865 grid cells in Germany (2071-80, BAMBU) for six climate types (cluster), minimum, mean, maximum value of climate variables: ggd: growing degree days >5 °C [°C], pa: mean annual precipitation [mm], pd: annual water deficit [mm], tc: mean temperature coldest month [°C], tm: mean annual temperature [°C].

climate type gdd pa pd tc tm 1 Min: 1999.00 594.95 -268.32 -0.09 9.83 Mean: 2399.10 758.04 -194.15 1.64 11.18 Max: 2731.00 1055.13 -77.44 3.13 12.12

2 Min: 1070.00 768.31 -151.24 -2.15 5.88 Mean: 1909,15 1069.31 -73.61 0.13 9.30 Max: 2415.00 1460.76 -18.15 1.61 11.06

3 Min: 2747.00 524.06 -413.99 1.73 12.31 Mean: 2944.12 651.48 -305.69 3.43 12.96 Max: 3357.00 810.25 -230.79 5.00 14.17

4 Min: 2423.00 462.74 -343.05 0.00 11.29 Mean: 2655.00 582.38 -278.59 2.34 12.06 Max: 2940.00 750.98 -229.14 3.37 12.74

5 Min: 2439.00 604.97 -292.05 1.36 11.52 Mean: 2660.48 708.41 -233.46 3.25 12.18 Max: 2991.00 893.03 -167.12 4.47 13.08

6 Min: 2422.00 792.01 -205.12 1.06 11.36 Mean: 2693.38 952.65 -133.13 2.09 12.08 Max: 3016.00 1296.01 -55.22 3.52 13.16


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Table S4 Projected future ranges of climate variables for 1865 grid cells in Germany (2071-80, GRAS) for six climate types (cluster), minimum, mean, maximum value of climate variables: ggd: growing degree days >5 °C [°C], pa: mean annual precipitation [mm], pd: annual water deficit [mm], tc: mean temperature coldest month [°C], tm: mean annual temperature [°C].

climate type gdd pa pd tc tm 1 Min: 2629.00 465.00 -406.86 1.46 11.79 Mean: 2924.93 641.12 -315,99 3.26 12.90 Max: 3394.00 902.87 -208.65 4.96 14.20

2 Min: 1329.00 815.72 -188.77 -1.38 7.07 Mean: 2214.09 1103.06 -108.04 0.98 10.40 Max: 2774.00 1414.81 -38.67 2.62 12.25

3 Min: 2244.00 592.45 -331.83 0.63 10.45 Mean: 2619,26 765.39 -239.43 2.19 11.86 Max: 2950.00 993.52 -148.65 3.57 12.91

4 Min: 3115.00 490.19 -535.41 3.34 13.50 Mean: 3373.19 675.93 -403.28 4.49 14.20 Max: 3847.00 1010.68 -234.53 5.67 15.51

5 Min: 2906.00 421.72 -450.34 0.97 12.82 Mean: 3117.73 537.61 -378.60 3.01 13.42 Max: 3323.00 686.66 -319.56 3.82 14.04

6 Min: 2667.00 835.10 -259.42 1.98 12.06 Mean: 2981.49 967.41 -193.36 2.95 13.03 Max: 3390.00 1240.03 -109.49 3.92 14.18


Table S5 Number of grid cells (on a 10' arcminutes grid) per country (N grid > 50, in alphabetical order), absolute and relative number (loss, gain respectively) of grid cells that are climatically analogues for the baseline (N 1961-90) and for the three scenarios SEDG, BAMBU and GRAS respectively, Perc: as ratio between “sum” per scenario and “N 1961-90” as well as Percall: “sum” per scenario and total number of grid cells of the selected European countries (n=27757). For the calculation we combined the six-cluster solutions for each scenario.

country N grid N 1961-90

sum SEDG

sum BAMBU

sum GRAS

Perc SEDG [%]

Perc BAMBU [%]

Perc GRAS [%]

Percall SEDG [%]

Percall BAMBU [%]

Percall GRAS [%]

Albania 112 0 11 22 26 9.8 19.6 23.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 Austria 360 113 26 2 0 -24.2 -30.8 -31.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 Belarus 997 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Belgium 140 18 122 121 77 74.3 73.6 42.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 Bosnia-Herzegovina 204 0 54 66 51 26.5 32.4 25.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 Bulgaria 438 0 16 61 24 3.7 13.9 5.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 Croatia 236 0 28 82 65 11.9 34.7 27.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 Czech Republic 357 163 0 0 0 -45.7 -45.7 -45.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 Denmark 226 33 23 78 47 -4.4 19.9 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 Estonia 241 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Finland 2253 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 France 2317 66 1215 1389 914 49.6 57.1 36.6 4.2 4.9 3.1 Greece 489 0 49 80 192 10.0 16.4 39.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 Hungary 393 0 0 2 0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ireland 338 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Italy 1192 0 217 421 517 18.2 35.3 43.4 0.8 1.5 1.9 Latvia 347 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lithuania 327 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Macedonia 102 0 2 5 2 2.0 4.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Moldova 149 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Montenegro 55 0 9 15 9 16.4 27.3 16.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 Netherlands 168 99 116 91 15 10.1 -4.8 -50.0 0.1 0.0 -0.3 Norway 2046 0 15 0 0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Poland 1469 41 0 0 0 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Portugal 332 0 5 7 12 1.5 2.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Romania 993 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Russia 323 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Serbia 358 0 23 28 11 6.4 7.8 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Slovakia 220 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Slovenia 86 0 20 30 1 23.3 34.9 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 Spain 1901 0 261 277 363 13.7 14.6 19.1 1.0 1.0 1.3 Sweden 2823 0 7 0 0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Switzerland 175 23 74 57 15 29.1 19.4 -4.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Turkey 871 0 47 158 323 5.4 18.1 37.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 Ukraine 1364 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 United Kingdom 1189 0 84 96 64 7.1 8.1 5.4 0.3 0.4 0.2


Table S6 Percentage of overlap R c [%] of the identified climate analogous regions in Europe (1961-90) for the six climate types in Germany and the scenarios SEDG, BAMBU, GRAS (2071-80). We counted the number of analogous grid cells that did overlap (No) for the pairs of the climate types (cl1 to cl6) in Europe (n=31143) and calculated the quotient (Rc) of these estimates and the number of analogous grid cells in Europe for each climate type (Nc): Rc [%] = No/Nc*100. Mean ratio of overlap was 4.9±6.0% (mean±s.d.; SEDG), 3.9±5.6% (BAMBU), and 6.0±10.5% (GRAS). 40% (SEDG), 47% (BAMBU), and 47% (GRAS) of the combinations (pairs of climate types) did not show an overlap.

SEDG cl1 cl2 cl3 cl4 cl5 cl6 cl1 8.6 0.2 - - - cl2 6.6 12.0 - 1.2 - cl3 0.3 21.6 1.6 7.0 - cl4 - - 2.5 4.5 1.5 cl5 - 4.7 15.9 6.5 8.7 cl6 - - - 8.8 35.3 BAMBU cl1 cl2 cl3 cl4 cl5 cl6 cl1 16.6 - 0.5 2.2 2.8 cl2 9.1 - - - - cl3 - - 2.6 9.1 - cl4 3.2 - 7.1 5.8 - cl5 7.9 - 13.9 3.2 5.8 cl6 23.0 - - - 3.2 GRAS cl1 cl2 cl3 cl4 cl5 cl6 cl1 - 12.0 12.0 10.0 1.8 cl2 - 2.9 - - 0.1 cl3 13.7 6.4 - - 3.9 cl4 14.9 - - 3.0 - cl5 49.6 - - 11.7 -

c l i

m a

t e

t y

p e

s

cl6 12.9 0.1 25.8 - - Table S7 Percentage of overlap [%] of climate analogous grid cells in Europe (1961-90), identified from six climate types in Germany for the scenarios SEDG, BAMBU, GRAS (2071-90). Percentage of overlap was calculated as follows: first we counted the number of analogous grid cells that overlapped for each pair of climate types (No) under SEDG, BAMBU, and GRAS in Europe, next, No was divided by the number of climate analogous grid cells for a scenario (N) and multiplied by 100.

SEDG BAMBU GRAS SEDG 55% 42% BAMBU 62% 64% GRAS 40% 55%


Fig. S1a Result from hierarchical clustering on the 10' arcminutes grid (see methods for details): Six identified climate types (cluster) for Germany under three alternative climate scenarios: moderate SEDG, intermediate BAMBU, severe GRAS (2071-80). From the selected climate types we identified the ranges of climate variables (see tables above) to select climatically analogous grid cells in 1961-90 (see following figures). Note that numbers refer to different climate types for each scenario (cf. the following figures).

BAMBU SEDG GRAS


Fig. S1b Climatically analogous regions in 1961-90, selected from ranges of climatic variables in six climate types (cluster) in scenario SEDG (~IPCC B1), see figure S1a.


Fig. S1c Climatically analogous regions in 1961-90, selected from ranges of climatic variables in six climate types (cluster) in scenario BAMBU (~IPCC A2), see figure S1a.


Fig. S1d Climatically analogous regions in 1961-90, selected from ranges of climatic variables in six climate types (cluster) in scenario GRAS (~IPCC, A1FI), see figure S1a.


Fig. S2 The provinces of the Iberian Peninsula (n=61) and the overlaying extent of the centres of the European 10´x10´ grid cells.

supplementary online material the iberian peninsula as a …€¦ · bergmann et al. the iberian...

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