supply and demand assessment - karen hill scott the california preschool planning toolkit: nov 2006...

2 The California Preschool Planning Toolkit: Nov 2006

SUPPLY AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT Overview An assessment of supply and demand is a fundamental first step to the development of a county preschool plan. This assessment is designed for the following key purposes:

1. It identifies the existing capacity to provide preschool services by type of setting, and the number of new and upgraded per-child services needed by zip code;

2. It can be linked to a cost estimate for new and improved direct services by zip code;

3. It can be linked to GIS maps that provide a visual representation of supply and demand;

4. It provides the information needed to develop a phase-in plan by highlighting underserved areas and those with low Academic Performance Index (API) scores; and

5. It can inform planning for facilities renovation and construction, workforce development, and community outreach by identifying the capacity shortfall and usage patterns.

The data section below shows the data sources. The needs assessment begins with a basic approach that determines Simple Unmet Need, and concludes with a Comprehensive Supply and Demand approach that provides detailed demand, supply, prioritization, and trend data. These two approaches are described below.

Simple Unmet Need We’ve used the following formula to estimate the simple unmet need:

Simple Unmet Need = Demand – Supply

Demand is approximated by the number of four-year-olds living in a zip code.1 Supply is estimated by using licensed data2 provided by the California Child Care Resource and Referral Network (CCR&R), in combination with Head Start, Title 5, and State Preschool enrollment data.

Comprehensive Supply and Demand Information In order to get better approximations of need and trends in your community, a more comprehensive approach is also provided. Comprehensive supply and demand information can:

1. Identify the existing capacity to provide preschool services by type of setting, and the number of new and upgraded per-child services needed by zip code;

2. Be linked to a cost estimate for new and improved direct services;

1 2002 births by zip code are used to estimate the four-year-old population in 2006. 2 Because the CCR&R provided licensed capacity data, a utilization rate was applied to estimate chosen capacity.

Furthermore, because the CCR&R provides information for “preschool age children,” the percentage of four-year-olds has been estimated.


3. Provide information for GIS maps;

4. Inform planning for facilities renovation and construction, workforce development, and community outreach by identifying the capacity shortfall and usage patterns; and

5. Help plan for preschool over a longer period of time, including a 5- or 10-year master plan for your county.

Demand As noted above, Demand is approximated by the number of four-year-olds living in a particular zip code. For both the Simple Unmet Need and the Comprehensive Supply and Demand worksheets, birth data is used to approximate the number of four-year-olds by zip code. Kindergarten enrollment by zip code is added for comparative purposes and to examine the differences between where children are born and where they attend kindergarten.

Supply Detailed Supply data provides better approximations of need that can identify the existing capacity to provide preschool services by type of setting. Detailed information was provided by the California Child Care Resource and Referral Network, the local Head Start grantee(s) and delegate agency (or agencies), and the California Department of Education.

Trend Examining trend data, or birth data and school enrollment across years, helps identify areas of need and potential areas for facilities. For example, if one zip code shows declining kindergarten enrollment over time, elementary schools in that area might have space for a pre-kindergarten classroom.

Prioritization While low API neighborhoods may drive the prioritization of where to invest resources, you may also want to consider other variables or factors in your planning. These variables could include kindergarten enrollment rates, percentage of children who qualify for free- or reduced-price lunch, and percentage of English language learners. We’ve provided a spreadsheet with this data that should prove useful in prioritizing where to invest resources.

Other Issues to Consider

Demand

1. Utilization rate. What percentage will participate?

2. Full-day versus part-day. What percentage of families will want/need full-day programs?

Supply

1. Other licensed child care preschool cohort. How many of the preschool-age cohort in other licensed care (provided by the CCR&R) are four-year-olds? We’ve provided an estimate of 50 percent, but this may vary depending on the county.

2. Enrollment versus capacity, or the percentage of the center slots that are utilized. We’ve provided an estimate of 90 percent, but this may vary depending on the county.


3. Family child care involvement and inclusion. We’ve assumed large licensed family child care providers would participate, but counties might also consider the following other options:

a. Family child care providers with BAs

b. Providers participating in the county’s CARES program

c. Small licensed family child care providers who care for at least 3 four-year-olds and are in family child care networks

d. Large licensed accredited family child care homes

Next Steps

1. Facilities. Just because 70 percent or more of the four-year-olds in a locality are currently enrolled in some type of child care program does not mean that all of those providers will want or be able to participate. The facility scan developed by the Low Income Investment Fund (LIIF) builds on the supply and demand assessment. It assumes 50 percent of existing programs will participate in the preschool program and that their facilities are available.

2. Cost. The supply and demand assessment can be linked to a cost estimate for new and improved direct services. We have assumed that all Head Start and State Preschool programs serving four-year-olds will participate and receive the upgraded amount. The remainder will qualify for the cost of a new slot.

3. Geographic Information System (GIS) Maps. First 5 California’s website provides GIS capabilities. According to First 5 California’s website, “Mapping risk factors, resources and other community level information can greatly simplify and speed information sharing while providing new insight into the relationships of various complex community factors. First 5 has determined that the above tasks can be most effectively supported through the use of an internet-based, comprehensive, integrated, statewide Geographic Information System (GIS). This GIS displays risk factors, resources, and information at the community level related to First 5's child well being mandate. As such, it can be used by the County Commissions for community level scientific needs assessment and resource identification. Further, local citizens and organizations can access the GIS to better understand the dynamics of complex factors influencing their communities.”


First 5 California’s GIS system allows counties to display the location of, and information about, a variety of local conditions that are relevant to First 5 eligible children, including risk factors, resources, community characteristics, government boundaries/sites and transportation information. As shown in Figure 1 below, county information can viewed by city or by school district. API and kindergarten enrollment data by school is also available.

Figure 1: First 5 California GIS Map (http://63.192.169.198/ccfcgis//index.asp)


As shown in Figure 2, First 5’s GIS mapping system also enables counties to find the location of State Preschools and Child Care Sites and the school district boundaries in which they are located.

Figure 2: First 5 California GIS Map (http://63.192.169.198/ccfcgis//index.asp)


But because this mapping system uses 2000 API data3 and 2001-2002 kindergarten enrollment data, counties might also choose to have more recent data fed into a GIS Mapping software (such as MapInfo for ERSI GIS Mapping Software) to create visual representations of the data. Figure 3 shows a sample GIS map displaying the simple unmet need by zip code for Sonoma County. The legend in the upper left-hand corner shows the color coding for simple unmet need; red zones have an unmet need of at least 400 four-year-olds per zip code.4

Figure 3: Sample GIS Map of Simple Unmet Need for Sonoma County

3 2000 API data was used because the baseline for funding eligibility in the School Readiness Initiative was limited to

1-3 API schools in the 2000 base year. 4 Note: First 5 plans to implement an update to the system that will enable users to see changes in maps from 2000-

2004 and also to upload their own data (a file of addresses, limited to 1,000 records, in a dbase or Excel file) to overlay onto the maps.


Figure 4 shows a sample GIS map displaying the Number of Kindergartners Enrolled in Low API 1-3 Schools by Zip Code in Sonoma County. Red zones have at least 300 kindergartners enrolled in low API 1-3 schools.

Figure 4: Number of Kindergartners Enrolled in Low API 1-3 Schools

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SUPPLY AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT INSTRUCTIONS Step 1 –Simple Unmet Need Estimated

Column

Data Element Provided (* Those items in italics are calculated

automatically in the spreadsheet) Source of Information In Chart Local Actions and Decisions

1. Zip codes in the county. http://www.getzips.com/county.htm

2. Births by zip code, 2002 (2002 births are used to estimate the number of children who would turn four years old in 2006).

Department of Health Services: http://www.dhs.ca.gov/hisp/chs/OHIR/tables/datafiles/zipcode/birth2002.xls

3. Licensed center-based enrollment for four-year-old children in the zip code. Percentage applied to estimate the number of four-year-olds in the preschool cohort, and the number of four-year-olds enrolled.

California Child Care Resource and Referral Network (CCR&R)

a. Your county may choose to adjust the % to reflect the percentage of four-year-olds in licensed center-based care, and the number enrolled. For this example, we applied the percentage of four-year-olds in sampled centers (50%) to capacity, and applied a 90% estimated enrollment rate.

b. Data from the local Resource and Referral can be compared against licensing data.

4. Licensed large family child care for four-year-old children in the zip code. Percentage applied to estimate the number of four-year-olds, and the number of four-year-olds enrolled.

Data can be obtained from the California Child Care Resource and Referral Network (CCR&R) in fall 2006.

a. Apply a percentage to estimate the number of four-year-olds. In the sample provided, we applied the percentage of four-year-olds found in a sample of FCCHs (13%) to non-sampled FCCHs.


c. Each county must also determine how much of the

November 2006 10

Column


automatically in the spreadsheet) Source of Information In Chart Local Actions and Decisions licensed family child care capacity to include in the supply and demand estimate. Options include four-year-olds served by:

1. Large licensed family child care providers.

2. Family child care providers with BAs.

3. Providers participating in the county’s CARES program.

4. Small licensed family child care providers who care for at least 3 four-year-olds and are in family child care networks.

5. Large licensed accredited family child care homes.

5. Total estimated licensed enrollment

(Column 3 plus Column 4)

n/a

6. Simple Unmet Need

(Demand minus Supply)

n/a

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Step 2 –More Detailed Demand and Supply Information Added

Column






3. Kindergarten enrollment in public and private schools by zip code in the county, 2005-06.

Public school enrollment – California Department of Education’s (CDE) Website. DataQuest: http://data1.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/dataquest.asp

Private school enrollment – CDE’s Website: http://www.cde.ca.gov/ds/si/ps/

4. Head Start enrollment of four-year-olds by zip code.

Data source: County Head Start directors.

5. State Preschool enrollment of four-year-olds by zip code. Note: County total from CDE is based on child residence.

Data source: California Department of Education

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Column



6. Title 5 enrollment of four-year-olds by zip code. Note: County total from CDE is based on child residence and includes General Child Care, Migrant, Campus, and handicapped.


7. Other licensed center-based enrollment of four-year-olds by zip code. Percentage applied to estimate the number of four-year-olds in the preschool cohort, and the number of four-year-olds enrolled.

Data source: California Child Care Resource and Referral Network



8. Four-year-old children served by large licensed family child care providers. Percentage applied to estimate the number of four-year-olds, and the number of four-year-olds enrolled.

Counties may choose to request family child care data from the California Child Care Resource and Referral Network by the end of December 2007.

a. Apply a percentage to estimate the number of four-year-olds. In the sample provided, we applied the percentage of four-year-olds found in a sample of FCHHs (13%) to non-sampled FCCHs.


c. Each county must also determine how much of the licensed family child care capacity to include in the supply and demand estimate. Options include four-year-olds served by:

November 2006 13

Column








9. Detailed, Refined Supply: Number of four-year-olds enrolled in a formal early education program by zip code. (Automatic formula totals enrollment across the various types of child care.)

n/a

10. Unmet Need (Demand Minus Detailed Supply)

n/a

11. Service Rate: Percentage of four-year-olds in the zip code enrolled in a formal early education program. [Automatic formula divides the number of four-year-olds served in the zip code (column 10) by the number of births (column 2) in the zip code.]

n/a

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Step 3 – Add Low API Data to Help Determine High Priority Areas

Column






3. Kindergarten enrollment in public and private schools by zip code in the county, 2005-06. Used to compare against birth data.



4a. Public school enrollment in schools with APIs 1-3, 2005-06 (information transferred from priority chart worksheet)

Priority worksheet (also: http://data1.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/page2.asp?level=School&subject=API1&submit1=Submit)

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Column



4b. Public school enrollment in schools with APIs 1-5, 2005-06 (information transferred from priority chart worksheet)


5. Percentage of public and private school kindergarten enrollment in zip code in schools with APIs 1-3,

2005-06

n/a

6. Percentage of total kindergarten enrollment by zip code, 2005-06 (Automatic formula divides enrollment in the zip code by the total kindergarten enrollment in the county).

n/a


Data source: County Head Start directors



9. Title 5 enrollment of four-year-olds by zip code. Note: County total from CDE is based on child residence and


November 2006 16

Column


automatically in the spreadsheet) Source of Information In Chart Local Actions and Decisions includes General Child Care, Migrant, Campus, and handicapped.

10. Other center-based enrollment of four-year-olds by zip code. Percentage applied to estimate the number of four-year-olds in the preschool cohort, and the number of four-year-olds enrolled.





Counties may choose to request this data from the California Child Care Resource and Referral Network in fall 2006.






November 2006 17

Column


automatically in the spreadsheet) Source of Information In Chart Local Actions and Decisions 3. Providers participating in the county’s CARES

program.




n/a

13. Unmet Need (Demand Minus Detailed Supply)

n/a

14. Service Rate: Percentage of four-year-olds in the zip code enrolled in a formal early education program. [Automatic formula divides the number of four-year-olds served in the zip code (column 12) by the number of births (column 2b) in the zip code.]

n/a

November 2006 18

Step 4 –Trend Data Added

Column




2a. Births by zip code, 2002 (2002 births are used to estimate the number of children who would turn four years old in 2006).


2b. Births by zip code, 2004 (to examine change over time).

Department of Health Services: www.dhs.ca.gov




4. Kindergarten enrollment change from 2004-05 to 2005-06 (information transferred from priority chart worksheet)

California Department of Education’s Web site. DataQuest: http://data1.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/dataquest.asp

5a. Public school enrollment in schools with APIs 1-3, 2005-06 (information transferred from priority

Priority worksheet (also: http://data1.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/page2.asp?level=School&subject=API1&sub

November 2006 19

Column


automatically in the spreadsheet) Source of Information In Chart Local Actions and Decisions chart worksheet) mit1=Submit)

5b. Public school enrollment in schools with APIs 1-5, 2005-06 (information transferred from priority chart worksheet)


6. Percentage of public school kindergarten enrollment in zip code in schools with APIs 1-3, 2005-06

n/a

7. Percentage of total kindergarten enrollment by zip code (Automatic formula divides enrollment in the zip code by the total kindergarten enrollment in the county).

n/a


Data sources: County Head Start director





November 2006 20

Column















November 2006 21

Column


automatically in the spreadsheet) Source of Information In Chart Local Actions and Decisions 4. Small licensed family child care providers who care

for at least 3 four-year-olds and are in family child care networks.



n/a

14. Unmet Need: Number of four-year-olds enrolled in a formal early education program by zip code. (Demand minus Detailed Supply.)

n/a

15. Service Rate: Percentage of four-year-olds in the zip code enrolled in a formal early education program. [Automatic formula divides the number of four-year-olds served in the zip code (column 13) by the number of births (column 2a) in the zip code.]

n/a

November 2006 22

Step 5 – Final Worksheet with Comprehensive Information

Column




2a. Births by zip code, 2002 (2002 births are used to estimate the number of children who would turn four years old in 2006).


2b. Births by zip code, 2004 (to examine change over time).


2c. Births by zip code, 2001 (to determine the number of children who would turn 5 in 2006 and therefore be kindergarten eligible).





November 2006 23

Column



4. Births in Zip Compared to Enrollment in Zip (Enrollment Divided by Births)

n/a

5. Enrollment change over time (information transferred from the priority chart worksheet)

California Department of Education’s Web site. DataQuest: http://data1.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/dataquest.asp

6a. Public school kindergarten enrollment in schools with APIs 1-3, 2005-06 (information transferred from priority chart worksheet)


6b. Public school kindergarten enrollment in schools with APIs 1-5, 2005-06 (information transferred from priority chart worksheet)


7. Percentage of public school kindergarten enrollment in zip code in schools with APIs 1-3, 2005-06

n/a

8. Percentage of total kindergarten enrollment by zip code (Automatic

n/a

November 2006 24

Column


automatically in the spreadsheet) Source of Information In Chart Local Actions and Decisions formula divides enrollment in the zip code by the total kindergarten enrollment in the county).


Data source: County Head Start director









November 2006 25

Column













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Column




n/a

15. Unmet Need: Number of four-year-olds enrolled in a formal early education program by zip code. (Demand minus Detailed Supply.)

n/a

16. Service Rate: Percentage of four-year-olds in the zip code enrolled in a formal early education program. [Automatic formula divides the number of four-year-olds served in the zip code (column 14) by the number of births (column 2a) in the zip code.]

n/a

supply and demand assessment - karen hill scott the california preschool planning toolkit: nov 2006...

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