supply prospects and market realities in advancing gas use

A Presentation by Mr. Dimitris MezartasoglouHead of Research, IENE

INSTITUTE OF ENERGY

FOR SOUTH EAST EUROPE

Supply Prospects and Market Realitiesin Advancing Gas Use in SE Europe

19th International Energy ConferenceSwissotel The Bosphorus Istanbul

September 21, 2018

European Gas Demand and Production Gap

2

Source: Gazprom Export

Natural Gas Imports to EU

3

Source: McKinsey Energy Insights

4Source: DEPA

European Gas Network: SEE EU Needs Additional Import Routes

NB.: The TANAP and TAP gas pipelines as well as Turkish Stream are under construction, with IGB at an advanced planning stage with FID already taken. The IAP, theIGI Poseidon in connection with East Med pipeline and the Vertical Corridor and the IGF are still in the study phase. Blue Stream and Trans Balkan are existingpipelines.

An Expanded South Gas Corridor

Source: IENE (February 2018)

The TANAP-TAP System (Under Construction)

Source: TAP AG

TAP

Length 878 km

Diameter 48-inch (1,200 mm) pipes

Capacity 10-20 bcm/y

Anticipated Operational Date

2020

TANAP

Length 1,850 km

Diameter 48-or-56-inch (1,200 or

1,400 mm) pipes

Capacity up to 31 bcm/y


2019

6

Turkish Stream (Under Construction)

Source: Gazprom

Turkish Stream

Length 1,100 km

Diameter

Outer diameter of 32 inches (812.8 mm) and

will be installed in water depths up to 7,220 ft

(2,200 m).

CapacityTwo stretches: Each stretch will have a

capacity of 15.75 bcm/y.


2020

7

East Med and Interconnector Greece-Italy (IGI) Poseidon (Conceptual Stage)

Source: DEPA

East Med

Length1,300 km (offshore)600 km (onshore)

Diameter 32-inch (813 mm) and 48-

inch (1,200 mm) pipes



2025

IGI

Length 216 km

Diameter 32-inch (813 mm) pipes

Capacity 14-20 bcm/y


2020

8

Main Recent Gas Discoveries in Offshore Eastern Mediterranean – Gross Mean Resources (bcm)

Sources: European Parliament, Financial Times

9

Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) (Implementation Stage)

Source: ICGB AD

IGB

Length 182 km


Capacity 3-5 bcm/y


2020

10

Ionian Adriatic Pipeline (IAP) (Conceptual Stage)

Source: Independent Balkan News Agency

IAP

Length 540 km




2023

11

Vertical Corridor and BRUA (Conceptual Stage)

Source: IENE

Source: European Commission

BRUA

Length 843 km


Capacity

5 bcm/y transport capacity towards Bulgaria

and 4.4 bcm/y towards Hungary


2023

Interconnector Greece-FYROM (IGF) (Conceptual Stage)

Sources: ENTSO-G map and ECA recommendations

IGF

Length 115 km

Capacity 1.5 bcm/y


2020

13

South Kavala Underground Gas Storage (Conceptual Stage)

Source: ENTSO-G

South Kavala UGS

Storage Facility Type Aquifer

Capacity 0.36 bcm/y


2022

14

Current Expansion of Revithoussa LNG Terminal (2nd Upgrade)

Source: DESFA

Expansion of Revithoussa LNG

Capacity

Storage capacity: 225.000 m3 (currently, 130.000 m3)Max Ship size: 260.000 m3

(currently, 140.000 m3) with the addition of a 3rd

tank


2018

15

Existing Land-based and FSRU Terminals in SE Europe

Source: IENE

Country Terminal Start StorageRegasification

capacity/yearOwners Concept

Greece Revithoussa 2000130,000

m3 LNG5.0 billion m3 DESFA (100%) Onshore

Turkey

Aliaga LNG 2006280,000

m3 LNG6.0 billion m3 Egegaz (100%) Onshore

Marmara

Ereglisi1994

255,000

m3 LNG8.1 billion m3 Botas (100%) Onshore

ETKI LNG 2017145,000

m3 LNG7.1 billion m3

Etki Liman Isletmeleri

Dolgalgaz Ithalat ve

Ticaret (100%)

FSRU

Botas-

Dörtyol2017

131,000

m3 LNG5.3 billion m3 Botas (100%) FSRU

16

Selected Planned FSRU Terminals in SE Europe

Source: IENE

Country LocationStorage capacity

(cm)

Annual capacity

(bcm)Technology

Croatia Krk island 2x180,000 4-6 FSRU

Greece Alexandroupolis 170,000 5.5-8.3 FSRU

Turkey Gulf of Saros 125,000-263,000 9-10 FSRU

17

The Alexandroupolis FSRU Project

Source: IENE study, “Gas Supply in SE Europe and the Key Role of LNG”, (M46), Athens, December 2017

Anticipated Gas Volumes Through Greece(2020-2030)

19

Anticipated Gas Consumption (bcm) in Selected European Countries (2020, 2025 and 2030)

Source: European Commission

Country 2020 2025 2030

Austria 7,5 7,3 7,1

Bulgaria 4,0 4,2 4,3

Greece 5,0 5,2 5,41

Croatia 3,7 3,8 3,9

Hungary 11,0 10,5 10,0

Italy 71,3 79,2 83,8

FYROM 0,1 0,1 0,13

Romania 13,0 13,5 13,5

Slovenia 1,2 1,2 1,3

Slovakia 7,0 7,2 7,3

Serbia 2,2 2,25 2,3

Turkey 60,0 65,0 70,0

Ukraine 35,8 36,0 36,5

Total gas consumption 221,8 235,45 245,54

20

Turkmenistan’s Gas Supplies to Europe via Turkey Now More Likely

Source: Interfax Global Energy

21

European Gas Hubs and Exchanges

22

Today, there is not a single gas trading hub east and south east of Vienna whose CEGHcould act as a pivot for organizing gas trading in this region.

Source: Interfax Global Energy

Gas Hubs in Greece and Turkey Can Coexist

Source: IENE study, “The Outlook For a Natural Gas Trading Hub in SE Europe”, (M19), Athens, September 2014

Proposed Road Map for the Development of a Natural Gas Hub Based in Greece

24Source: DESFA

The Creation of a Natural Gas Hub Based in Turkey

After the successful completion of a five-month testing phase, starting on April 1, thespot gas trading system in Turkey officially went online.

On July 27, EPİAŞ began to publish gas transmission data through its online transparencyplatform. It also started to share transport nomination, virtual trade, capacity, reserve,actualization and stock amounts, on a daily basis.

EPİAŞ launched its spot gas trading system on the energy stock exchange in earlySeptember 2018.

Source: EPİAŞ

25

Thank you for

your attention

www.iene.eu

[email protected]

26

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supply prospects and market realities in advancing gas use

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