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Support for International AgriculturalResearch: Can the Pipeline Deliver?

Dr. Robert S. ZeiglerDirector General

International Rice Research Institute

April 2008 / RxB

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INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTELos Baños, Philippines

Mission:

Reduce poverty and hunger,

Improve the health of rice farmers and consumers,

Ensure environmental sustainability

Through research, partnerships

Home of the Green RevolutionEstablished 1960

www.irri.org

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The Green Revolution in Asia

1960s • yields ~1.5 t/ha• widespread

famines predicted

Today• yields ~4 t/ha• economic

growth

An international undertaking initiated by philanthropy, driven by great social need

and built by enduring partnerships

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Production

Prices

Population

$

Population, rice production, and rice prices in Asia: 1961-2002…

Production and Population (M) Price (US$1/T)

1In US$ year 2000 Historical low

!

Poverty ratio and rice yield in India in 1983 and 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2 3 4 5 6

Rice yield (t/ha)

Po

vert

y ra

tio

(%

)

OrissaBihar

MP

Assam

Rajasthan

Gujarat

MaharastraUP

Kerala

WB

Tamil Nadu

KarnatakaAP

Haryana Punjab

1983 2005

Poverty-rice yield relationship

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International Agricultural Research System

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1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005Year

Average Asian rice yield (t/ha)

By 2015 the world will need to produce at least an additional 50 M tons of paddy rice EVERY

YEAR

Yield growthis slowing

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US$/t (fob)

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

YEAR

Jul-9

8

Dec-9

8

May

-99

Oct-9

9

Mar

-00

Aug

-00

Jan-

01

Jun-

01

Nov

-01

Apr

-02

Sep

-02

Feb

-03

Jul-0

3

Dec

-03

May

-04

Oct-

04

Mar

-05

Aug

-05

Jan-

06

Jun-

06

Nov

-06

Apr

-07

Sep

-07

Feb

-08

July-

08

Dec-0

8

Source of raw data: The Pinksheet, World Bank

Monthly export price (US$/ton FOB) of Thai rice (5%-broken), (March 1998 to Jan. 2009)

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2050 World Cereal Demand Projections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

69/71 79/81 89/91 99/01 2030 2050

Million Tonnes

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization

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Pedigree of IR 8

CINA LATISAIL

PETA DGWG

IR8Ultimate Land Races: 3

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Pedigree of IR72UNKNOWN (JAPAN) UNKNOWN

VELLAIKARMARONG PAROC BLUE ROSE SUPREME PA CHIAM SERAUPBESAR15

GEB24

FORTUNA

CO18 BPI76

REXORO SINAWPAGH BENONG

TKM6 TEXAS PATNA R SBR BLUEBONNET

CINA

CP PATNA231 SLO17

LATISAIL

CP SLO17 SIGADIS

PETA DGWG Tsai Yuan Chung

TADUKAN

IR746 A IR8 IR127

O. nivara

IR22/IR579 IR305 IR24 Ultimate Landraces: 22

IR1641 DEE GEO WOO GEN

Gam Pai CINA

IR1529 IR1704 LATISAIL

Gam Pai-15 IR1539 GAM PAI

IR1721 THEKKAN

IR3185 ERAVAPANDI

IR1561 IR1737 TADUKANBENONG

IR833 IR2040/2 KITCHILI SAMBA

IR3024 MARONG PAROC

PA CHIAM

IR1824 IR36/IR2071 VELLAIKARTETEP

MUDGO

O. nivara (IRGC 101508)

TSAI YUAN CHUNG

Unknown

SERAUPBESAR 15

ARIKARAI

SINAWPAGH

IR9129 UNKNOWN (JAPANESE)

IR72 GOWDALU

IR95

IR86TN1

IR3403

IIR11761

IR15340

IR17496IR19661

IR119

IR747

MUDGO

IR1402

ARIKARAI

PTB33

IR400

IR1416

TETEP

IR262

PTB21/PTB18

THEKKAN

PTB21

PTB18

ERAVAPANDI

IR1833

C4-63

IR2053IR28

IR7481

GOWDALU

HR21

IR1813

IR32445

IR1364 IR2035

IR15795

IR14438

KITCHILI SAMBA

CR94-13

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Wild Species of Oryza

Insect resistance

Disease resistance

Tolerance to abiotic stresses

QTLs for yield

O. ridleyiO. officinalis

O. minutaO. alta O. brachyanta O. longistaminataO. rufipogon

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IRRI holds in trust the world’s largest collection of rice genetic resources…> 110,000 accessions

Cannot Overestimate Central Role of IRRI’s Germplasm for Coming Generations

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Genetic Resources for Tomorrow

• The challenges facing rice in agriculture beyond the time frame of our current plans are not knowable.

• There is no assurance of any relationship between desirability of germplasm today and its potential for future application.

• It is incumbent upon us to collect, conserve, and prepare germplasm for future use.

P A SUseUse

Conserved GermplasmBreeding Lines

Specialized Genetic Stocks

Current problems

Drought tolerance

conservation

dissemination

Phenotype-genotype association

Durable disease-pest resistance Problem soils

phenoty

pe genotype

Future challenges

Public Genetic Diversity Research PlatformPublic Genetic Diversity Research Platform

C4 Rice C4 Rice

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Late70s ‘80s ‘90s 1993 1995 1997 1999 2002 (Indonesia)

2005 (Phil, China) 2006-7 (India … )

Bacterial Blight: Pathways to varietal release

ResearchResearch

BreedingBreeding

ReleaseRelease

Broad Broad AdoptionAdoption

Pathogen population analysisPathogen population analysis

Gene identificationGene identification

Backcrossing & MASBackcrossing & MAS

Expt’l & Farm TrialsExpt’l & Farm Trials

ReleaseRelease

Donor cvs & Donor cvs & XooXoo races id, e.g. DV85* races id, e.g. DV85*

Inheritance studiesInheritance studies

Development of NILsDevelopment of NILs

XaXa-markers; Prediction of durability-markers; Prediction of durability

Donor NILs in IR24 background (gene):• IRBB4 (Xa4)• IRBB5 (xa5, TFIIα γsubunit)• IRBB7* (Xa7, cloning in progress)• IRBB13 (xa13, MtN3)• IRBB21 (Xa21, Serine-threonine kinase transmembrane protein)

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The problem of too much water

• 20 million ha affected in South and Southeast Asia.• Growing problem with climate change.• Rice is only crop suitable, but ‘drowns’.

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Swarna-Sub1(developed by marker assisted backcrossing)

Sub1

12 chromosomes are all fromSwarna except for Sub1 segment

Swarna Swarna-Sub1

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New Sub1 lines after 17 days submergence in the field at IRRI

Samba-Sub1

Samba

Samba-Sub1IR64-Sub1

IR49830 (Sub1)

IR64

IR42

IR64

IR64-Sub1

Samba-Sub1

IR49830 (Sub1)

Samba

IR64

IR64-Sub1IR49830 (Sub1)

IR42

IR64-Sub1

IR64

IR49830 (Sub1)

IR49830 (Sub1)

IR42

Samba

IR42

Samba

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Swarna-Sub1 in India (2007 - 08)

July 31

Oct 31

Eastern Uttar Pradesh

Yield Performance (32 sites 2007):

No Flood: Equal yield

Short Flood (6 - 10 d): 25% advantage

Med Flood (10 – 15 d): 50% advantage

Long Flood (> 15 d): 150% - infinite advantage

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Sub1 Timeline1978 2008

1978: FR13A crossed to high-yielding IRRI lines

1983: Semi-dwarf trait com-bined with submergence tolerance

1990: High-yielding varieties with submergence tolerance developed

1981: Genetic studies indicate quantitative (com-plex) inheritance

1995: Genetic mapping of Sub1 locus on rice chromosome 9

2000: Fine mapping and identification of markers for breeding

2005: Identification of Sub1A gene conferring sub-mergence tolerance (IRRI & UC); improved markers

2002: Swarna crossed with IR49830-7 (Sub1)

2005: Swarna-Sub1 developed by marker assisted backcrossing

2005: Locally adapted lines awaiting further evaluation

2007: 6 Sub1 mega varieties sent for evaluation in 9 Asian countries

2008: Release and large scale seed production

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Second Green Revolution

• Twenty first Century Constraints– Declining agricultural land– Declining water availability for agriculture– Rising input prices: fuel and fertilizers– Higher incidence of extreme weather– Land degradation– Persistent poverty and malnutrition

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Human capacity will have to be rebuilt

Indonesia: # PhD Rice Scientists < 50 yrs old in Public sector = 0 !

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What Does Support for International Agricultural Research Look Like?

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World Bank Lending for Agriculture

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

US$ Million

Source: World Bank Annual Reports and Various other Online Sources

- 80%

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World Bank Lending for Irrigation

Source: http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4854E/y4854e03.htm#TopOfPage

- 50 %

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ADB: Share of Agriculture in Total Lending

Source: ADB Annual Reports and Other Sources

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%A Complete Collapse

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15 Centers

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IRRI budget, 1960-2007, US$ 2007IRRI budget, 1960-2007, US$ 2007

Real value at 2007$ USCPI

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

IRR

I Bu

dg

et (

'000

US

$)

1974 Funding Level

~ 350 M CumulativeShortfall

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Has the CGIAR lost focus?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

% C

G s

pe

nd

ing

1972-75 1976-79 1980-83 1984-87 1988-91 1992-95 1996-99 2000-03 2004-05

Share productivity

Share environment

Source: www.worldbank.org/WDR2008

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~ 10 % decline in traditional supporters 2007 - 2009

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What happens when public sector investments drop?

• Phil Pardey and colleagues at the International Food Policy Institute and the University of Minnesota found– After 10 - 15 years farm productivity starts to

decline– Data from US as well as developing countries

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First, some terminology: CGIAR budget is in two main categories

Unrestricted funding:• Until around 1990 most of

CGIAR budget • Covered our strategic, or

“core” agenda• Additional funding for work

beyond our strategic agenda was often referred to as “special projects” and was restricted to use for that purpose only

Restricted funding:• Originally for work outside

our strategic agenda• Was a small part of our

budget• Often had been supported

by personnel and facilities covered from unrestricted funding

• Now covers our strategic agenda

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Revenue Trends

Gates Investment Increasing

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

Other Income 1.78 2.26 1.42 1.58 2.14 2.25 2.57 2.54 1.86 2.27 1.30 0.80 0.80

Gates Foundation 0.19 4.30 18.97

Restricted/CP 17.09 17.76 16.41 17.27 15.86 15.52 15.62 17.86 16.08 15.07 19.97 21.50 27.38

Unrestricted 18.31 16.77 16.09 16.53 14.09 12.89 11.50 14.78 12.86 12.84 12.23 12.36 11.96

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Unrestricted =~50%

Unrestricted =~20%

Traditional donorsBMGF

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What does unrestricted funding support cover?

• Basic Institute operations– Electricity, HR, finance, communications, etc.

• Essential research and training not covered under restricted grants– Gene bank, exploratory research, partnerships,

long term trials, pre-product work • Obviously with 80% of revenue as restricted,

the unrestricted funding must be used very wisely

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TODAY

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Thank you“Since the way to feed the world is not to bring more land under

cultivation, but to increase yields, science is crucial.”

The Economist

“The Silent Tsunami”

19 April 2008