supreme world wheat presentation (may 2014)
TRANSCRIPT
WORLD WHEATSource: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on
their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
The World Wheat Market
Year
Production
Consumption
Surplus (shortfall)
12/13 13/14 14/15
657 714 697
679 703 696
-22 11 1
0 2
World Production and Use
0 3
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
0 4Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World wheat supply & demand
Date 12/13 13/14 14/15
Supply
Trade
Demand
Ending
stocks
197 175 187
657 714 697
855 889 884
137 162 152
543 570 568
137 133 128
679 703 696
175 187 187
Exports/imports
Beginning stock
Production
Supply total
Food & seed
Feed & residual
Use tool
0 5
Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio
0 6*Ending stocks
Global Ending Stocks and Price
0 7
World Ending Stocks
0 8
International Wheat Factors
Global wheat production projected to reach 697 MMT, down 2% from 2013/14 but
second highest on record.
Total global supply estimate at 884 MMT; 5.76 MMT lower than 2013/14.
World consumption forecast to fall 1% to 696 MMT, second highest on record and up
3% from 5-year average.
World beginning stocks expected to increase by 6% from 2013/14 to 187 MMT.
Argentinian production to increase 19% to 12.5 MMT.
0 9
Australia Situation
0 10
Black Sea Exports
0 11
EU-27 Situation
0 12
Date
Opening stock
Production
Imports
489
Consumption
Exports
Closing stock
1870
1650*
3245
248
516
13/14*
Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons)
0 13
Local Wheat Drivers
Limited small crop – 1,870 million tons (need to import 43% of requirement) = import
parity driven
Large European and Black sea crop expected as larger Argentine crop keeping
pressure on world prices in spite of poor US HRW crop this season
Besides the recent US weather dryness, the largest driver of local prices is the currency
(Rand).
Another important driver is the pace of actual imports i.e. by 16 May 2014 – 982 120
tons imported vs. imports needed to date to balance supply = 1 031 250 tons.
0 14
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