surviving the digital revolution

Laurent Haug7 November 2012

Surviving the digital revolution


Apple (2000-2012)

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Nokia (2000-2012)

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Surviving the digital revolution?

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Protect the future from the past

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html 10

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html 10

“In late 2004, Nokia weathered criticism from investors that it was expending too much effort on high-end smartphones while its rival ate into its lucrative business selling expensive ‘dumb’ phones. [The new CEO] merged Nokia’s smartphone and basic-phone operations. The result, said several former executives, was that the more profitable basic phone business started calling the shots.




http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/ 11

http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/



http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/ 11

Philisophically, the company was steeped in the film business, and to embrace digital meant cannibalizing its own business.




Tim O’Reilly

Policy should protect the future from the past, not the past from the future.

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Tim O’Reilly

Policy should protect the future from the past, not the past from the future.

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Businesses


Past vs future

Find your balance.And adapt your governance.

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Look back to look ahead

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Musicians have to hit the road again, and make money from playing live in front of their fans.

3D printing means anybody can create objects from his home.

Crowdfunding takes us back to the patronage period.


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SMS: One to one, sender chooses recipientTwitter: One to many, recipient chooses sender


The future looks a lot like the past

Try to find similarities, and see how it turned out in the previous iteration.

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See through the hype

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Homepage (1990s)

Portal (2000)

Blog (2002)

Facebook (2005)

Second life (2007)

Twitter (2008)


Tim O’Reilly

1/3 failures, 1/3 successes, 1/3 continuing under another form

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Service / concept

What is became1995 Homepage Faltered1996 ICQ Concept still going strong under other forms1997 Push Faltered1998 eCommerce Important1999 WAP Faltered2000 Portal Faltered2001 Napster Concept still going strong under other forms2002 Friendster Concept still going strong under other forms2003 LinkedIn Important2004 MySpace Faltered2005 Blog Concept still going strong under other forms2006 Web 2.0 Important2007 Second life Faltered2008 Facebook Important (despite the stock market nightmare)2009 Twitter Important2010 Wikileaks Concept still going strong under other forms2011 Groupon Failure if you trust the IPO

History of media hype towards digital technologies


Tim O’Reilly

1/3 failures, 1/3 successes, 1/3 continuing under another form

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Service / concept

What is became1995 Homepage Faltered1996 ICQ Concept still going strong under other forms1997 Push Faltered1998 eCommerce Important1999 WAP Faltered2000 Portal Faltered2001 Napster Concept still going strong under other forms2002 Friendster Concept still going strong under other forms2003 LinkedIn Important2004 MySpace Faltered2005 Blog Concept still going strong under other forms2006 Web 2.0 Important2007 Second life Faltered2008 Facebook Important (despite the stock market nightmare)2009 Twitter Important2010 Wikileaks Concept still going strong under other forms2011 Groupon Failure if you trust the IPO

History of media hype towards digital technologies

Unscientific rule of thumb:1/3 will be successful1/3 will disappear1/3 will stay in another form


Hype

Lot of noise, be pragmatic.But don’t use that as an excuse to overlook the important developments.

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Photo did not kill paintingDVD did not kill cinemaCars did not kill bikesRadio/downloads did not kill the music industryInternet did not kill mediaSkype did not kill phones


Not knowing is fine

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The business model, which led to the success of Google, was copied from a company called Overture, a paid search specialist company, based in South California.

Next time President Bush tells you he's going to Crawford to be with "real Americans," remind him that there are more World of Warcraft players in the USA than there are farmers.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/20/the-real-america/






Monty Python started a YouTube channel with tons of their sketches streaming for free. The included links to their DVDs at Amazon. The result was a whopping 23,000% increase in sales.


Not knowing is fine

The rules of the digital world are still being written, it is normal not to know.Try things, fail, improve, never stop learning.

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Technology is not always the solution

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Technology is not always the solution

Use technologies when they bring value. Don’t go too far.

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Surviving the digital revolution?Protect the future from the past Look back to look aheadSee through the hypeAccept the unknownsTechnology is not always the solution

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Alvin Toffler

The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.

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[email protected]+41 78 696 64 80@laurenthaug

Jack WelchChange before you have to.

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