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REVIEW ARTICLE

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF TOURISM

AND OIL

Susanne Becken

Lincoln University, New Zealand

Abstract: Growing scarcity of oil and increasing oil prices are highly relevant for tourism.This research provides a critical meta-analysis to assess current knowledge of ‘tourism andoil’. The interdisciplinary analysis is complex as there are no clear boundaries of the phenom-enon, the interpretation of ‘facts’ is context dependent, and activities relevant to tourism andoil are multi-dimensional. The review suggests that increasing oil prices will have far-reachingimpacts on tourism, including changes to people’s lifestyles and the role of tourism withinthese. Presented knowledge of tourism and oil is far from comprehensive and serves as a start-ing point for further enquiry. In particular, research on the interpretive components of thephenomenon remains poorly conceptualised and ill-understood. Keywords: oil, energy, crit-ical realism, meta-analysis. Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

INTRODUCTION

‘‘Can the world cope with the peaking oil supplies? After all, it wasthe oil miracle that made the twentieth century an unprecedentedera for wealth and personal freedom in the developed nations, chang-ing almost every aspect of how we live, travel and eat’’ (Simmons, 2005,p. 342). As long as 30 years ago at the International Conference on Tourism and Air Transport it was asked how much fuel would be available in 15 to

25 years and what substitutes there were available to replace fossil fuels(Raben, 1978). Today, the question of what the economic, social andcultural implications for tourism and the world might be in light of dwindling oil resources is more relevant than ever. Concerns about imminent peaking of oil production are increasing (UK Energy Research Centre (UK ERC), 2009) and have also been incorporatedinto the three ‘hard truths’ postulated in Shell’s latest Oil Scenarios:(1) rising demand from India and China, (2) a decline in conventionalsources of oil, (3) concerns about the climatic impacts of greenhousegas emissions (Zalik, 2010).

Susanne Becken is an Associate Professor at Lincoln University and Director of the LandEnvironment and People (LEaP) Research Centre. Susanne is currently leading twogovernment-funded programmes in New Zealand related to ‘Oil’ and ‘Climate Change’.Susanne is on the editorial boards of the Journal of Sustainable Tourism, InternationalTourism Review, and Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, and she is aResource Editor for Annals of Tourism Research. Email <[email protected]>.

Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 359–379, 20110160-7383/$ - see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Printed in Great Britain

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2010.10.005 www.elsevier.com/locate/atoures

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Tourism is very oil intensive. The aviation industry alone consumes243 million tonnes of fuel per year; 6.3% of world refinery production(Nygren, Aleklett, & Hook, 2009). The impact of less (affordable) oil islikely to be complex and its analysis challenging, as it has to include

many dimensions, for example how tourists respond to price signals,how tourist flows will change, and what role the social and cultural con-texts play in the participation in, and operation of tourism. The ques-tions of oil availability and how it might be used, as well as the effects of tourism as distributors of wealth, are geopolitical and ethical. Despitethe critical role of oil, tourism forecasts and future studies rarely con-sider oil shortages or price hikes as serious factors (an exception is Dra-per, Goodman, Hardyment, & Murray, 2009). This is exemplified in arecent report on ‘The Future of Travel and Tourism in the MiddleEast’, which assumes ongoing growth and expansion of global markets

(Global Futures, 2007).It is the aim of this paper to provide a critical review of knowledge

related to the interaction between tourism and oil against the back-ground of declining resources and increasing oil prices. It is arguedthat the approach required has to be interdisciplinary to capture themany dimensions of tourism and oil. By undertaking a qualitativemeta-analysis that goes beyond merely summarising literature in thisfield, but explicitly questions the assumptions behind different studies,knowledge on tourism and oil will be advanced considerably. Moreimportantly, this approach enables a discussion of key limitationsand research gaps, and thereby helps to identify urgent research needs.Greater understanding of the implications of reduced availability of cheap oil for tourism will be essential to manage associated risks.

METHODOLOGY

Knowledge Creation

Tribe (2006, p. 363) argues that tourism knowledge is not necessarily

congruent with tourism as a phenomenon, as it is mediated by factorssuch as person, ideology, rules, ends and position—all spanning the‘‘knowledge force field’’. For example, knowledge is likely to be influ-enced by the motivations of the research, which are often industry-biased, but also relate to ‘‘understanding’’, ‘‘deep insight’’, and tothe ‘‘improvement of human conditions’ or ‘‘emancipation’’ (Tribe,2006, p. 373). The relationship between the ‘phenomenon’ of tourismand oil, the knowledge force field, and actual knowledge is depicted inFigure 1.

Reflecting on the knowledge force field helps to understand better

the limitations of knowledge created. Limitations are either of a disci-plinary or paradigmatic nature, or they simply reflect knowledge gaps.Paradigmatic limitations are most fundamental. Positivism, for exam-ple, excludes the possibility that research is value-laden and thereby rejects questions of moral or power relationships, all of which are rel-evant in the study of tourism and oil. Positivism assumes that true

360 S. Becken / Annals of Tourism Research 38 (2011) 359–379



reality exists and that it can be understood by the means of testable the-ories. In contrast, interpretivism understands reality to be constructed,and as a result knowledge is subjective and influenced by values. The-ory is built from multiple realities that are influenced by their socialcontext. Critical theory has been advocated as an alternative paradigmto explore power relationships and ideologies, to escape rules and par-adigms (Tribe, 2007), and to critique social systems (Chambers, 2007).

Achieving an Interdisciplinary Approach

Knowledge of tourism and oil can be enhanced by drawing on arange of disciplines, although an interdisciplinary approach is requiredto overcome the problem that ‘‘disciplines may perform a selector roledetermining what is included and excluded in both the framing of research and its execution’’ (Tribe, 2006, p. 366). While becomingan ‘interdisciplinary bricoleur’ ( Jamal & Everett, 2007) makes theresearcher more vulnerable to criticism, it also increases their flexibil-

ity and ability to address theoretical and methodological biases that areimplicit in disciplinary research. It is therefore in the hands of theskilled researcher to integrate various disciplines in recognition of respective merits and shortcomings. For example, Habermas arguedthat ‘‘positivism is useful as long as it did not exceed the limitsestablished by the conditions of [its] possibility’’ (in Chambers, 2007,p. 108).

Interdisciplinary research has to bridge different worldviews (ontol-ogy), understanding of knowledge (epistemology) and methodologies,exacerbated by discipline-specific discourses. An overarching ontology

that enables one to overcome and capitalise on heterogeneities is re-quired. Critical realism could offer such a universal theory. One key element of critical realism is that the researcher accepts that there isa (mind-independent) reality even though it may not be fully appre-hended (Chambers, 2007). Rather than accepting the research find-ings as the ‘truth’ (i.e., the same as the phenomenon), a critical

Figure 1. Phenomenon of Tourism and Oil and Generation of Knowledgeabout it Moderated Through the Knowledge Force Fields of MultipleDisciplines (Modified from Tribe, 2006)

S. Becken / Annals of Tourism Research 38 (2011) 359–379 361



realist would acknowledge that knowledge has to be described andinterpreted by the researcher (Sayer, 2004). As such, ‘‘critical realismchallenges the dominant approaches of positivism and hermeneuticsby defining the power of both natural and social science to explain,

as well as observe and interpret’’ (Botterill, 2007, p. 122).The ontology of critical realism comprises three layers. The empiri-

cal layer is at the surface and can be observed and described usingcausal language (Easton, 2010, p. 119). However, while positivist researchers would equate a constant conjunction with causation, thecritical realist accepts that this might not necessarily be the case (Sayer,2004). A second layer of critical realism is the ‘actual world’ in whichevents happen and their meaning has to be understood rather thanmeasured or counted. Hence, there is an interpretive element (Easton,2010) that acknowledges that social phenomena are intrinsically mean-

ingful. The third layer is the real world, where events occur indepen-dently of whether they are observed or understood. In this real world, hidden ‘‘mechanisms’’ reign that are ‘‘circumstantial and not deterministic’’ and not a ‘‘construct of reflexive science’’ (Botterill,2007, pp. 122–123). The critical scientist endeavours to constantly reflect on the way they understand this layer and to improve existingtheories and concepts. It seems that critical realism offers an encom-passing perspective from which to study tourism and oil.

Procedure

The approach in this research is a meta-analysis of existing studiesthat are relevant to tourism and oil. A meta-analysis has been tradition-ally employed in positivist science using various statistical methods toderive a unifying measure of observations from independent studies.Building on this principle, Sirakaya and Woodside (2005), in their re-search on tourist decision making, coined the term ‘meta-theory’, where they created a set of propositions based on earlier contributingtheory. More recently, qualitative meta-analysis has been presented as a

‘‘formal method for cumulative assessment’’ (Timulak, 2009, p. 591).The goal is to undertake a systematic and rigorous analysis of primary qualitative findings, which will result in a new conceptualization of thephenomenon under consideration (ibid). There are two important ele-ments of qualitative meta-analysis. One is to contribute to knowledgegeneration by describing comprehensively the phenomenon, and thesecond one is to critique the primary findings by investigating how par-adigmatic parameters and theoretical assumptions may have influ-enced the findings. Discrepancies or gaps in findings may beexplained by the different approaches and they become an important

part of the meta-analysis. The critical realist approach allows for inte-gration of quantitative and qualitative principles in an interdisciplinary meta-analysis.

Relevant studies for the meta-analysis were identified in three ways.First, the author has been involved in tourism and oil research formany years, mainly with a focus on geographic and economic aspects.




This may cause some bias in the meta-analysis. Second, to ensure a wider coverage of studies the author searched the literature on much wider aspects of oil and energy in relation to tourism or society. A num-ber of sociological, anthropological and behavioural studies on oil and

societal change were identified. Given that only a very small number of studies on tourism and oil were found, the author took a third ap-proach of purposefully investigating established tourism theories inlight of their usefulness to tourism and oil. Here a range of relevant contributions could be found. Overall, the author attempted to ac-count for tourism’s complexity which is ‘‘driven by the global prioritiesof multi-national corporations, geo-political forces and broader forcesof economic change, and the complexities of the local. . .’’ (Milne & Ateljevic, 2001, p. 372). Despite these intentions this analysis is far fromcomprehensive and has to be seen as a starting point of an enquiry into

tourism and oil.The analysis is likely to be ‘messy’, because it is difficult to put clear

boundaries on the phenomenon, the interpretation of ‘facts’ dependson the particular perspective, human activities relevant to tourism andoil are complex and multi-dimensional, and some aspects are likely tobe context dependent ( Jamal & Hollinshead, 2001). The results of thispresent analysis will be structured in two ways. First, knowledge will bediscussed for the macro and the micro level (Table 1), with a particularconsideration of integrating economic, geographic and socio-cultural/psychological perspectives. Second, ‘foreground’ information will bediscussed first and then enhanced by ‘background’ information that is not directly available through research ( Jamal & Hollinshead,2001). Knowledge gaps will be discussed. This approach reflects the‘integration by leader’ socio-cognitive framework for interdisciplinary research as discussed by Rossini and Porter (1979), where the research-er is the sole integrator of various disciplinary pieces to provide thefinal research output.

MACRO LEVEL ANALYSISThe Global Price of Oil

The real price of oil has fluctuated significantly since the 70s, withtwo major oil crises in the 70s. Prices increased sharply in 2007 and

Table 1. Framework: Integration Across Disciplinary Lenses and Levels of Enquiry

Economics Socio-cultural/psychology Geography

Macro-economic effects of

higher oil prices

Society: Social Change Global tourist flows

Micro economics and tourismbusinesses

Individuals: destination choiceand decision making

Destinations andcommunities

Note : There is overlap between the disciplinary lenses, for example ‘communities’ is also of importance to sociological and cultural enquiries; and regional development of destinationshas obvious economic components. These overlaps aid the interdisciplinary inquiry.




reached an all time high of US$147 per barrel of crude oil in 2008. A large number of factors influence the price of oil in the short term, but long term prices are driven by world oil supply and demand, and ulti-mately by limited resources. The International Energy Agency (2009)

expects demand to recover after the global financial crisis in 2009and as a result oil prices to rise again; however the future development of the oil market is highly uncertain.

The truth is that nobody knows for sure how much oil there is and at what rate or cost it is recoverable. Projections depend on how expertsinterpret different pieces of evidence such as past oil production rates(Bentley, 2002; Greene, Hopson, & Li, 2006; Hirsch, 2008); however,there now seems to be a wide understanding that conventional oil(i.e., easily accessible with current technology) is likely to decline inthe near future (UK ERC, 2009). Physical ‘realities’ are important in

shaping oil prices, but the influence of less tangible factors such as rep-resentations of diminishing resources and insecurity in extraction siteshas been overlooked, in particular for the pricing of oil futures mar-kets. The futures markets (e.g., as used by airlines through ‘hedging’)are socially constructed and discourses by authoritative sources arelikely to influence the speculative market (Zalik, 2010). Some of theseare ideology-driven, such as the Shell scenarios that present a neo-lib-eral narrative of the future that facilitates ongoing growth and domi-nance of oil and that (wittingly) omits alternative low-carbon futures,thereby making it harder for these to materialise.

The global trading of oil is a geographic as well as a political matter, which means that the causes and effects of oil prices will be unevenly distributed (Bailey, Hopkins, & Wilson, 2010). Oil only occurs in anumber of countries (most notably the Middle East) and is largely con-sumed by another set of countries, namely the Western world, andincreasingly China and India (BP, 2009). Oil is a product that has tobe delivered at a great distance against many odds and as such is a goodexample of how space challenges capitalism (Zalik, 2010). The unevengeographic distribution of supply and demand is a major source of pol-

itics, increasingly so since National Oil Companies started to dominateoil production (Hirsch, 2008). Rixecker argues that the planet’s natu-ral resource map is currently re-written in a way that will ‘‘tilt the devel-oped/developing axis towards a different hegemonic discourse andconsequential policy’’ (2007, p. 1). The power structures of the globaloil market are relevant for understanding which country and what sec-tors (e.g., aviation) will have access to oil, and recent interest by organ-isations such as the US military are signals of this (Macalister, 2010). Access to oil will be important for tourism with respects to countriesof origin, as well as specific social groups (elites) within countries.

Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices

There is a wide belief amongst economists that oil price variationsare statistically related to GDP. Nakov and Nuno (2009) explain oilprice formation in the context of a dominant producer (Saudi Arabia)




and simulate permanent halving of oil productivity, which causes a3.5% reduction in GDP from the balanced growth path. Zaouali(2007) uses a static general equilibrium model to find a 0.9% decreasein Chinese GDP for a $25 increase in oil price. Higher oil prices will

also lead to inflation, affect exchange rates and reduce consumers’ in-comes (Naccache, 2010). Many empirical studies show that oil import-ing countries are vulnerable to a long-run increase in the oil price(Hirsch, 2008; International Energy Agency, 2004; Kilian, 2008). Devel-oping countries are more affected because of their less efficient pro-duction and higher oil input to economic output ratios. For oilexporting countries, the International Energy Agency (2004) foundthat the positive impact on GDP is only short term. In most cases, a de-cline in GDP growth sets in after two or three years as the result of adecline in exports to oil importing countries. Some studies found that

the relationship between oil price and GDP has been weakening sincethe 80s (Blanchard & Gali, 2007), and that it is influenced by the nat-ure of the shock (i.e., demand or supply driven, slow or accelerated,Naccache, 2010), and a country’s trading partners (Korhonen & Ledya-eva, 2010).

The effects of oil shocks on tourism have been under-researched,although UNWTO (2006) reported that the historic oil crises had nolasting impact on international departures to date. Using a Comput-able General Equilibrium model, a study on oil shocks and tourismin New Zealand, however, shows that the long term value of tourismdecreases significantly following a doubling of oil price compared with2006 levels (Lennox, submitted). In this study, an increase in domestictourism compensated for some of the reduction in international arriv-als and export value.

The above studies take a positivist approach and seek to understanda phenomenon by measuring observable outputs. However, ‘‘variablescan only register (quantifiable) change, not its cause’’ (Sayer, 1992,p. 180, in Easton, 2010), and it could be fruitful to investigate thefundamental nature of resource trade and consumption rather than

simply study their measurable properties. Only one study could beidentified that indicated that due to structural uncertainties that cannot be eliminated (as they are hidden from our understanding) aninterdisciplinary approach to oil price development is required, forexample in the form of qualitative scenarios that include politicalperspectives ( Austvik, 1992).

Social Change

Reduced economic activity has social repercussions, for example

unemployment, changing consumption patterns and social norms.Because of society’s reliance on energy, Tainter, Allen, and Hoekstra(2006) suggested an approach of post-normal science, which explicitly recognises the relevance of public opinion, politics, uncertainty anddebate, and deals with ‘‘entrenched interests, trade-offs, and winnersand losers—among nations, firms and individuals’’ (2006, p. 45).




In-depth critiques that address moral dimensions of fossil fuelconsumption are rare. Lloyd (2007), for example, observes that ‘‘if the system is faulty you cannot solve the problem using the same meth-ods that created the faulty system’’ (p. 5814) and warns that social

change is extremely difficult in a system which ‘‘has been so purpose-fully designed to run on ever increasing supplies of cheap fossil fuel’’(p. 5810). Consequences of a global energy crunch could include‘‘predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchement and socioeconomicadaptation’’ (Friedrichs, 2010, p. 4562).

The above insights equally apply to tourism as a social phenomenonand highlight the need to understand relevant social and cultural con-texts. Milne and Ateljevic’ idea of ‘‘de-differentiating’’ between cultureand economy (2001, p. 381) by specifically considering how touristsconstruct their identity in a culture of consumption may be relevant.

The relocalisation movement is a response to an increasing depen-dence on unsustainable global systems, and is discussed as a new tem-plate of spatial relations in a post carbon world (Bailey et al., 2010).Relocalisation promotes self-sufficiency, permanent agriculturalsystems, and minimised need for transportations. Clearly, such a‘‘time-space re-extension’’ of transport (North, 2010) would have hugeimplications for tourism. The emergence of ‘slow travel’ as an alterna-tive to contemporary carbon-intensive forms of tourism aligns withsuch societal shift (Dickinson, 2009). The idea of a localised world isalso reflected in carbon-constrained scenarios for global tourism underclimate change (Dubois, Peeters, Ceron, & Gossling, 2010).

Major changes in people’s way of life are likely to bring with themconcomitant changes in (tourists’) personal values and ‘ends’ andredefine the role of holiday making in people’s life, including push-pull factors associated with different kinds of destinations. Over20 years ago, Krippendorf suggested that ‘‘tourism may well becomeagain a true discovery, a place of experiences and learning, a meansof human enrichment, a stimulus for a better reality and a better soci-ety’’ (p. 530, in Higgins-Desbiolles, 2006). Tourism itself is a force for

social change as engaging in touristic activities represents a new view of the world and skills acquired as tourists, such as dealing with unfamiliarsituations and velocity, have repercussions for everyday life (Franklin,2007). Hence, changes in tourist behaviour are then in turn likely toreflect in people’s life more generally.

Global Tourist Flows

Global tourism consists of domestic and international tourism. Inter-national tourist flows largely originate from developed countries, in

particular Europe (57.8% of all international travel). While ‘‘North-South’’ flows are comparatively minor (about 11% of all internationaltravel, Scott et al., 2007), they nevertheless are of critical economicimportance to some destinations, for example the Caribbean islands where tourism contributes about 20% to national GDP (Ringbeck,Gautam, & Pietsch, 2009). These tourist flows will change if increasing




oil prices impact on the main countries of origin, either economically or socially. The expected growth out of emerging markets, such as Chi-na and India, may also be dampened by higher oil prices.

Policy makers are often interested in quantifying risks, for example

by assessing countries’ oil vulnerability and its relevance to tourism.Oil vulnerability depends on a range of factors, such as share of oilcosts in national income, the intensity and efficiency of use of oil inproduction, flexibility of the labour market, the ratio of value of domestic reserves to oil consumption, exposure to geopolitical oil mar-ket concentration risk, market liquidity, and the availability of alterna-tive energy sources (Gupta, 2008). A very simplified assessment can beundertaken using Gupta’s (2009) oil vulnerability index and juxtapos-ing it to the top tourism source countries (Figure 2). Germany is thetop tourism spender with $71 billion in 2004; its oil vulnerability is

believed to be comparatively low. The United States as the largest tour-ism spender has an even lower ranking of oil vulnerability. In contrast,Korea and India are oil vulnerable countries; however, since both arerelatively less important in terms of global tourism expenditure,economic impacts from reduced tourism volumes will be less severe.

Global tourism may—at this stage—not appear particularly vulnera-ble; however, the above analysis is rather simplistic and fails to providedeeper insights into the relationship between energy security (Chester,2010) and global tourism. It is also rather Western-centric as it assumes

Italy

Netherlands

BelgiumChina

Spain

India

Korea

Austria

SwitzerlandIreland

Sweden

Australia

France

USA

Germany

Japan

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 20 40 60 80

International Expenditure ($) 2004

O i l V u l n e r a b i l i t y S c o r e ( 2 0 0 4 )

Figure 2. World’s Top Tourism Spenders (Minus 9 Countries for which No Oil Vulnerability Ranking was Available) and Their Oil Vulnerability (Sources:Gupta, 2008; UNWTO, 2009)




an economic relationship between oil vulnerability and tourism activ-ity, both in terms of drivers and impacts. Tourism in other cultures,for example, in Islamic countries, is (at least partly) of a different nat-ure, for example in its manifestation of pilgrimage tourism. Here, the

affordability of oil may be secondary and will not hinder ‘tourists’ fromfulfilling their faith (Higgins-Desbiolles, 2006). No relevant studiescould be found that shed further light on travel determinants andthe role of oil prices outside Western countries, which is identified asa major research gap.

Global tourist flows depend on the affordability of transportation.The higher oil prices in 2008 saw airlines increase their ticket prices, with surcharges in the order of $350 for a roundtrip from the UnitedStates to Europe. Fuel costs as a percentage of an airline’s operatingcost are disproportionally high for long haul flights (e.g., 30% com-

pared with 17% for short haul flights, Ringbeck et al., 2009). Hence,under high oil price scenarios global tourist flows are likely to contract from longer haul to shorter haul. While some destinations will experi-ence reduced arrivals, countries that are in proximity of major sourcemarkets (e.g., Cambodia to China) will benefit under these scenarios(Ringbeck et al., 2009). Constraints on global oil production are likely to undermine growth scenarios of 5% per annum for internationalaviation and global tourism (Nygren et al., 2009). Recognising thischallenge, Virgin Airlines is an active member of the Peak Oil Industry Taskforce in the United Kingdom.

Decreases in international tourist arrivals are typically interpreted asan economic loss, especially in countries where tourism is promoted asa vehicle for development, a discourse commonly maintained by UN- WTO: ‘‘there is stronger evidence that tourism, if developed and man-aged in a sustainable manner, can make a significant contribution toalleviate poverty . . .’’ (2004, abstract). Tourism’s ability to reduce pov-erty in an equitable and lasting way and without further underpinningdependencies on foreign assistance has been questioned, as well as the wider concept of enforcing capitalism on societies in a way that might

undermine the sustainability of their livelihoods (Chok, Macbeth, & Warren, 2007; Mowforth & Munt, 2003). The need for economicgrowth, the concept of ‘development’ and the term ‘sustainability’are in themselves contested and there is no single ‘truth’ on whetherdecreasing tourist arrivals are a positive or negative impact.

MICRO LEVEL ANALYSIS

Destination Choice and Decision Making

Tourism is a luxury good and only a small proportion of the worldpopulation is able to participate. Many empirical tourism studies show that income is a key driver of leisure tourism (Davis & Mangan, 1992;Dritsakis, 2004; Munoz & Amaral, 2000), both in terms of travel pro-pensity and distance (Lim, Min, & McAleer, 2008; Nicolau, 2008).Thus, income reducing effects as a result of higher oil prices are likely




to reduce global tourism and redistribute flows. Reduced economicactivity is also likely to result in reduced volumes of business travel. Be-sides income, the price of tourism influences where people travel(Crouch, 1995; Witt & Witt, 1995) and what kinds of holidays they take

(Fleischer & Rivlin, 2008). As higher oil prices increase transportationcosts demand decreases depending on different market’s price sensitiv-ity. A range of empirical studies have demonstrated this effect for airtravel (Brons, Pels, Nijkamp, & Rietveld, 2002; Gillen, 2004), althougha recent study focusing on oil prices and their impact on tourism arriv-als in New Zealand failed to establish clear links (Small & Sweetman,2009). This may be due to the wide range of factors that influence air-fares (apart from oil) and complex tourist behaviour.

Economic consumption models are based on a positivist paradigm where the consumer seeks to maximize utility through combinations

of monetary resources, goods and services, and time. Research on des-tination choice defines the tourist as a rational and well-informed deci-sion maker within the context of measurable situational orpsychographic variables (Um & Crompton, 1990; Woodside & Lyson-ski, 1989). In these models, travel costs enter the decision making pro-cess as the tourist learns about the product and as he/she develops anattitude towards a specific destination. Attitudes, alongside subjectivenorms and perceived behavioural control were found to be relevant in tourists’ decision making in a number of studies that built on thetheory of planned behaviour to explain destination choice (Quintal,Lee, & Soutar, 2010). Tourists may also develop attitudes towards theconsumption of scarce resources.

Econometric analyses provide some insight into possible effects of higher oil prices, but destination choice is a much more complex pro-cess involving a bundle of tangible and intangible attributes (McKer-cher, Chan, & Lam, 2008). Thus, the ‘homo economicus’ approachhas been criticised as a simplification of tourists’ emotional, opportu-nistic and hedonic behaviour (Hyde, 1999). Consumers may lack cog-nitive competence to evaluate fully all possible tourist destinations, and

they are also faced by incomplete or incidental access to information.Intangible factors are at work, for example the so-called Ulysses factor, where certain types of tourists feel a need to explore beyond the knownand hence travel larger distances than other tourists (Nicolau, 2008).Since many decision making models are grounded in a positivist orrealist ontology, they provide deterministic explanations of outcomesrather than an understanding of the process. Smallman and Moore(2010) therefore suggest that narrative research would offer a richerexplanation of complex and dynamic decision making, overcomingthe limitations of neo-classical economic models.

Regional Development and Communities

Tourism has often been linked to regional development and impactsin local communities. Research following the oil crises in the 70shighlighted how tourists and recreationists changed their travel




behaviour in response to oil prices and fuel shortages (Converse &Machlis, 1986). Changes included a reduction in leisure travel(McCool et al., 1974), the purchase of more economic, smaller vehicles(Landsberg, 1974), shorter domestic holidays (Knikkink, 1982), and a

shift towards public transport ( Williams, Burke, & Dalton, 1979). Very little is known about present day elasticities of tourists towards fuelprices, but more general research on the demand for car travel indi-cates inelastic behaviour, both in the short and long run (elasticitiesof À0.3 to À0.8, Graham & Glaister, 2002). A limited response to pricesignals was also found in a Spanish study on the effects of a fixed-ratetax levied on vehicle hire in order to reduce congestion externalities(Palmer-Tous, Riera-Font, & Rosello-Nadal, 2007). Only few studies ex-plore how tourist mobility can be maintained in the absence of fossilfuels. Urry (2008) describes a future scenario of ‘digital panopticum’,

where a new ‘‘architecture of technologies and practices’’ (p. 270)emerges in the form of smart and digitized transport systems to providean alternative to the automobile-driven society of today.

Hohl and Tisdell (1995) commented that tourism in peripheral areasis a risky business, because of the inhibiting effect of distance. Theconcept of peripherality has been frequently related to regions that are underdeveloped and geographically remote, have historicaldependency relationships, are characterised by demographic changeand suffer political insignificance (Blomgren & Sorensen, 1998). Inthese situations, tourism has been welcomed as a means for develop-ment and diversification away from primary industries. The attributeof peripherality is ambiguous in the context of tourism as, while it couldbe measured in an objective manner through a distance decay functionor travel cost model, it is ultimately the tourists’ perception of how peripheral a place is and whether it matters or not (Blomgren & Soren-sen, 1998). Physical remoteness could be compensated for by particularattractiveness (Hohl & Tisdell, 1995) or it could be seen as an attractionin its own right. How tourists perceive distant places is likely to be shapedby their socio-cultural background, and is also subject to intellectual bias

with respect to actual distances ( Ankomah, Crompton, & Baker, 1995). A recent study on oil prices and tourist behaviour in New Zealand couldnot establish a strong relationship between petrol price and traveldistance (e.g., by car) (Becken & Schiff, in press). Hence, it is not wellunderstood how tourists might alter travel itineraries in response tohigher oil prices, and whether remote areas are more oil vulnerable thancentrally located tourist destinations.

No systematic analysis could be found on how oil prices relate to re-gional development, although Zhang and Murphy’s (2003) approachof comparing different development models could be useful. Investiga-

tions should take into account that, while regions and communities areexposed to global influences, they are not ‘‘shaped passively by outsideforces but react as well, at times even changing the conditions of thelarger system’’ (Preister, 1989, p. 20, in Milne & Ateljevic, 2001). Theactive pursuance of low-cost carriers into regional airports, forexample, has transformed tourist destinations considerably, although




reliance on the low-cost airline business model has been identified as arisk factor, for example for tourism in Scotland ( Yeoman et al. (2007).

Only very few regions or destinations have addressed the risks associ-ated with ‘peak oil’ (Becken, 2008; McChesney, 2009). The reason for

this could lie in the intangible nature of a global risk compared withmore relevant and immediate local risks. Nuth (2007) identified that the risk perceptions with respect to peak oil held by community mem-bers in a small tourism destination (Akaroa, New Zealand) were highly individualized and subjective, and reflected the social context morethan the ‘reality of risk’. A notable exception is the Climate Changeand Peak Oil Strategy developed by the Sunshine Coast Australia (Sun-shine Coast Regional Council, 2010). The strategy identifies the needfor a detailed assessment on the impact that future rising and volatileoil prices, especially in relation to the viability of airlines that use the

Sunshine Coast airport and the strategic implications for Council,and the likely structural changes in the Sunshine Coast’s tourism sector(e.g., an increase in domestic tourism). The strategy also explores oilimpacts on other sectors, including transport, constructions, foodand energy.

Implementing new energy concepts in communities relies on a bet-ter understanding how the different ‘social worlds’ look at energy andhow translation between these differing worlds can be achieved (Pohl& Gisler, 2003). Understanding different values is essential for a tran-sition towards new energy systems (Tainter et al., 2006). Research inthis area would need to build on psychological understanding of mech-anisms such as the tragedy of the commons, collective denial and they by-stander syndrome, as current views that ‘‘there must be a solution’’fail to grasp the ‘‘imminent material reality of our own predicament’’(Korowicz, 2010, p. 8).

Tourism Businesses

Tourism businesses are the smallest unit of the tourism sector, form-

ing an important part of local communities. To remain profitable,tourism businesses have to set prices adequately. One economic theory,the ‘cost-of-production theory of value’, holds that the value of anobject is determined by the resources that went into making it, namely labour, capital, land, or technology. Higher oil prices would lead to anincrease in price, if businesses are unable to reduce their fuel con-sumption (Figure 3). The cost of energy as a percentage of operatingrevenue of tourism businesses is in the order of 5–8% (Becken &Carboni, 2008), although some sub-sectors or individual businessescould be considerably more energy intensive, for example scenic flight

operators (Becken & Simmons, 2002).In theory, businesses respond to higher oil prices by substituting

away from oil-intensive technologies. A recent study by Dalton, Loc-kington, and Baldock (2008) researched the feasibility of renewableenergy supply (RES) for a large scale resort in Queensland, Australia. A simulation showed that a 100% RES was both feasible and




economically viable, although a hybrid approach of RES (wind ratherthan photovoltaic) combined with a diesel generator provided the low-est net present costs. Despite such promising examples, sociologicaland psychological research into behavioural aspects of energy useshows that the implementation of ‘rationally beneficial’ measures fallsshort of its true potential. Sorrel et al. (2000) and others found that business decision makers often act irrationally and are influenced by factors such as inertia, lack of trust, habit, fashion, (mis)-information,power relationships and networks, and socio-cultural context. Theneed to better understand ‘socio-technical systems’, including policy learning has been emphasized to overcome some of these barriers(Owens & Driffill, 2008).

Another economic theory, the ‘theory of marginal utility’, highlightsthe role of the demand side, postulating that the value of a product orservice is set by the consumer (Figure 3). The effect of higher pricesthen depends amongst others on the elasticity of demand. A study on tourist expenditure and oil prices in New Zealand could only iden-tify measurable effects for some market segments (Schiff & Becken, inpress). The intensity of competition that the firm faces also plays an

important role, assuming operators behave rationally. Profit-maximis-ing firms will respond to an increase in marginal costs by raising theirprices to some extent. If competition is intense, pass-through will behigher, everything else equal (as profit margins are already low). Incontrast, a monopoly firm will typically choose to pass through lessthan the full cost increase, as was observed for Scotland’s main ferry operator, which absorbed approximately 40% of costs during the2008 oil hike ( Yeoman et al., 2007).

Finally, businesses that are located in more remote areas involvemore time and expense for the transportation of both people and

goods. Research in this area is scarce, although one US study foundthat the demand for hotel rooms, especially those further away off main motorways, drops when fuel prices increase (Canina, Walsh, &Enz, 2003). Knowledge about tourists’ decision making in relation tooil is limited, in particular as it may be confounded by social and envi-ronmental attitudes. Relevant research in the arena of climate changeindicates changing attitudes towards fossil fuel consumption, but has

DemandElasticity

Intensity of Competition

CostStructure

Effect of Oil Price Change

On Profit Margins

Type of

Tourists

Demand

Substitution OptionsRemoteness

Importance of Oil

in Costs

Ability to Change

Energy Use

Figure 3. Summary of Factors Determining the Effect on Profits of a Changein Oil Prices for Tourism Businesses




not yet observed tangible behavioural changes (e.g., Barr, Shaw, & Prill- witz, 2010; Becken, 2007), maybe because tourists simply do not know how to conserve energy in the holiday situation and also because they do not benefit financially from such activities (Miller, Rathouse, Scar-

les, Holmes, & Tribe, 2010). Similarly, most knowledge on how busi-nesses respond to higher oil prices is purely based on economictheories. However, in-depth research on small to medium sized tour-ism businesses in New Zealand has highlighted that operators are oftenmotivated by both personal and business goals. In fact, operators as-sessed their own situation positively despite a wide range of financial yields ( Wason, Sleeman, Moriarty, & Simmons, 2007). The assumptionthat tourism operators act rationally is therefore debatable and furtherresearch in this area would be beneficial.

CONCLUSION

The analysis of knowledge on tourism and oil shows that reducedoil availability and increasing prices will have far-reaching impacts ontourism, as they will on society as a whole. Society and tourism are inti-mately interrelated, and impacts go beyond economic ones, includingpervasive changes such as people’s lifestyles and the role of tourism within these. Just like societies in countries of origin will change, tour-ist destinations and communities will transform in response to higher

oil prices. Some destinations may find it easier to adapt, whereas oth-ers—possibly more remote places—are more vulnerable. Tourism busi-nesses are essential parts of destinations and their ability to adapt willbe critical for the development and sustainability of their associatedcommunities. While profitability is an important aspect of running atourism business, many operators are driven by other motivations as well. Their aspirations are likely to include environmental, social andcultural dimensions. Changes in tourism products and associated expe-riences are, in turn, likely to act as a driver of social change for touristsin their home countries.

The analysis in this paper focused on the different kinds of impactsthat rising oil prices might have on tourism. The meta-analysis revealedthat much knowledge of tourism and oil is of an economic nature.Typically, existing studies reflect a positivist stance with a neoliberalideology which promotes global economic growth and free markets. As such, much of the knowledge is instrumental and focused on techno-logical solutions. While arguably producing interesting findings, theseapproaches fail to recognise important effects such as spatial manifesta-tions or the social context of oil consumption and as a result are likely tobe constrained in their telling of the ‘‘truth’’ (Tribe, 2006). Only a few

studies were identified that researched the societal or behaviouraldimensions of oil, and even fewer endeavoured to uncover power rela-tionships or ethical questions. The interdisciplinary approach in thismeta-analysis sought to overcome some of the disciplinary constraintsand provide a greater picture of tourism and oil beyond economicimplications.




This present analysis has not dealt with how existing and futurepolicies address the challenge of ‘peak oil’. The main reason for thisis the lack of policy that specifically addresses oil scarcity. As opposedto climate change, which is at the heart of a wide range of international

conventions, frameworks and initiatives (e.g., the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change and the Djerba Declara-tion] by the UNWTO), there is no unified approach to ‘peak oil’.The proposed Oil Depletion Protocol (Campbell, 1996), which isessentially a global rationing system, has never been formally imple-mented. Likewise, most government policies that develop energy poli-cies portray these as mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions, andenergy security may only be mentioned as a co-benefit. More recently,research is increasingly exploring linkages between climate change andpeak oil policies ( Verbruggen & Al Marchohi, 2010); however, tourism

has not been addressed in this respect. The lack of research intopolicies that address ‘peak globalization’ is a major gap that impedesnecessary adjustments (Curtis, 2009).

As observed by other tourism academics, most of the knowledgeabout tourism relates to Western cultures and fails to take full account of other cultures and under-empowered groups, for example, less wealthy members of society or those living in rural areas. It is possiblethat exactly these participants omitted in most tourism discourse areparticularly relevant to understanding the impacts of oil prices on tour-ism. Less wealthy people will be more affected than those with high dis-posable incomes and those living outside large cities will be moreexposed to higher oil prices than those close to major distributionand public transport systems. Tourists who travel for reasons otherthan leisure (e.g., education, religion, medical treatment) may alsobe differently affected than the often researched holiday tourists. Very little is known about the travel behaviour and vulnerability of theseparticipants in global tourism.

The ontological lens of critical realism and the methodologicalapproach of meta-analysis proved useful to integrate different kinds

of information relevant to understanding tourism and oil. Researchfindings from empirical studies provided a useful indication of possiblecausality. For example, higher oil prices are believed to lead to reducedincomes, a lower travel propensity and fewer tourist arrivals, especially in long distance destinations. Oil prices are likely to raise productioncosts and lead to increases in prices for tourism products, which then,depending of elasticity of demand, will reduce output from tourism.However, this empirical layer of reality has to be seen in the context of the world that we attempt to understand, and research on socialinterpretations, values, irrational behaviours, and ethics is critical.

More psychological research on people’s risk perceptions and mecha-nisms of dealing with inevitable problems would be beneficial to not only understand current behaviours with respect to oil but also explorepathways for increasing societies’ resilience to a range of other com-plex problems. While this present analysis attempted to provide a bal-anced presentation of the different layers of reality it is acknowledgedthat due to the predominance of empirical ‘foreground’ research, the




more challenging interpretive components of the phenomenon of tourism and oil remains poorly conceptualised and subsequently ill-understood.

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susanne becken 2011

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