AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY FOR BLAINE COUNTYFOR BLAINE COUNTY

PROGRESS REPORTPROGRESS REPORTOctober 2008October 2008

TIP StrategiesAlan CoxMeredith Whitten

TIP TIP || agendaagenda• About us• About the process• Our framework• Data findings• SWOT• Discussion

TIPTIP | | about usabout us

TIP TIP || what we dowhat we doTIP STRATEGIES INC is an economic development consulting firm based in Austin, Texas, USA. Our core strength is in strategic planning with special emphasis in these areas:

Economic assessment & trend analysisBenchmarking & measurement Target industry & cluster analysisLocation & land-use analysisFiscal impact analysis

TIP ProjectsTIP Projects

TIPTIP | | about the processabout the process

Project timelineProject timelineJANDECNOV FEBOCTSEPAUG

FINAL

IMPLEMENTATION

OPPORTUNITY

DISCOVERYData analysis, field work, site visits

Finalize strategies, action items, budget, measures, etc.

Vision, benchmarking, additional field work as needed

Roll-out

We are here

Activities to dateActivities to date• Data collection

– Demographics– Migration– Housing & income– Traffic & commuting– Economy & tax base– Workforce– Benchmarks

• Interviews/focus group meetings

TIP TIP || interviews & focus groupsinterviews & focus groupsAugust:• City reps (Bellevue,

Carey, Hailey, Ketchum, Sun Valley)

• School district• 2 county

commissioners• St. Luke’s hospital• Hailey Chamber• Workforce commission• 2 community-wide

forums

September:• Rocky Mt. Hardware• Power Engineers• Young professionals• Sun Valley Co.• Scott USA• WREP• Smith Optics• Realtors• Entrepreneurs• Agriculture

October:• Housing groups• Land trusts• Youth group• 1 county commissioner• Tourism representatives• Sun Valley/Ketchum

Chamber• Sun Valley biz owners

and homeowners

TIP TIP || next visitnext visit• Upcoming communitywide workshop:

– Charette format with break-out groups– Establish vision– Identify opportunities– Form task forces

• November 18

TIPTIP | | our frameworkour framework

economic development (n)

1) the application of public resourcesto stimulate private investment

TIP TIP || definitiondefinition

talent / innovation / place

knowledge

higher wages

more jobs

buildings

2010

2000

1990

1970

1980

evolutionary scale

EC DEV EC DEV || evolution of goalsevolution of goals

The traditional ED model focuses on place-based industrial recruitment and job creation as a means to stimulate economic growth.

Our model focuses on the factors that play essential roles in stimulating economic vitality in a community.

Industry

Sites JobsInnovation & Capital

Quality ofPlace

Talent

TIP TIP || a new frameworka new framework

TIP definedTIP definedTALENT• Individuals that posses the skills and values to

make organizations more effectiveINNOVATION• The sectors and entities that leverage

technology and advanced processes for design, manufacturing and services.

PLACE• Viewing the assets of your community through

the eyes of the talent you wish to attract and retain.

BLAINE CO.BLAINE CO. | | data findingsdata findings

8%

7%

7%

7%

11%

14%

13%

8%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

6%

6%

5%

6%

6%

4%

4%

6%

8%

8%

9%

9%

8%

7%

16%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Age 0 to 4

Age 5 to 9

Age 10 to 14

Age 15 to 19

Age 20 to 24

Age 25 to 29

Age 30 to 34

Age 35 to 39

Age 40 to 44

Age 45 to 49

Age 50 to 54

Age 55 to 59

Age 60 to 64

Age 65 and greater

1980 2030

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

● Comparing Blaine County's age distribution in 1980 to the projected distribution in 2030 shows how the population is evolving. Our perspective in 2008 is near the mid-point of this 50-year period of change.

● The long-term changes are stark. All age cohorts over 40 rise as a share of the population while all age chorts under 35 decline. The long-term decline among young adults in their 20s and early 30s is particularly notable.

BLAINE COUNTY RESIDENT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE, 1980 vs 2030

NET MIGRATION FLOWS TO/FROM BLAINE COUNTY BY TYPE

In-State Out-of-State Foreign

SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

−250−200−150−100−50+0

+50+100+150+200+250

1997 2007

Net Inflow

Net Outflow

−250−200−150−100−50+0

+50+100+150+200+250

1997 2007−250−200−150−100−50+0

+50+100+150+200+250

1997 2007

● By digging deeper into the IRS data, we learn even more about Blaine County's migration patterns. Even though total net domestic migration flucturates back and forth from year to year, the net totals are much more consistent when separated into in-state and out-of-state of flows.

● The net migration patterns within Idaho tend to be consistently net outflows to other counties. Meanwhile, the net patterns with other states tend to be steady net inflows of new residents.

TOP 3 NET MIGRATION FLOW PATTERNS WITH BLAINE COUNTY

Ada County, ID Twin Falls County, ID Lincoln County, ID

NOTE: Complete data for Lincoln County, ID, unavailable prior to 1998SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

−150

−125

−100

−75

−50

−25

+0

+25

+50

1990 2007

Net Inflow

Net Outflow

−150

−100

−50

+0

+50

1990 2007−150

−100

−50

+0

+50

1990 2007

● Blaine County has significant annual migration flow patterns with Ada, Twin Falls, and Lincoln counties in Idaho. In most years, the balance is a net outflow from Blaine to these three counties. The outflows to Ada County are particularly notable.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

Number of permanent householdsNumber of housing units

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

BLAINE COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS vs. HOUSING STOCK

● Blaine County adds new housing units faster than it adds new households. This makes sense in a resort area. A large portion of new housing units would logically represent secondhomes rather than primary residences.

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Median Sales Price for an Existing Single-Family HomeAverage Permitted Value of a Single-Family Home

BLAINE COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICES VERSUS NEW CONSTRUCTION VALUES

● Comparing averages and medians can be dangerous, especially in thinly populated areas with skewed incomes. With that caveat, however, such a comparison can still be a useful rule-of-thumb when considering the median sale price of an existing single-family home to actual local construction costs for a new single-family home.

● In many areas of the country where housing prices in recent years spun out of control, this type of sales price-to-construction cost comparison shows that median sale prices far exceed average construction values, thus indicating a potential price bubble. In Blaine County, we see the opposite. Recent construction costs have escalated well beyond median sales prices for existing single-family units. This hints at the rapidly rising affluence of new full and part-time residents who will occupy the newly constructed units.

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors; Moody's Analytics

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Blaine County JobsEmployed Blaine County Residents

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Staitstics (household survey); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (wage & salary employment by place of work), accessed via Moody's Analytics

● Comparing employment data from two separate collection processes can be problematic. However, in a place likeBlaine County, it is important to understand the distinct differences between what labor economists call "household employment" and "establishment employment". This means counting jobs either by where people live or by where they work.

● By comparing the BEA's establishement-based wage and salary employment series to the BLS's household survey, we see a growing discrepancy. The number of jobs in Blaine County is greater than the number of employed residents and the gap appears to be widening over time. This underscores data in previous charts that showed a growing net volume of inbound commuters into the county.

BLAINE COUNTY IMBALANCE: MORE JOBS THAN EMPLOYED RESIDENTS

BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES

Industry 2006 EmploymentConstruction 3,506Accommodation & food services 2,813Retail trade 2,254Real estate 2,238Professional & technical services 1,695Personal & other services 1,587Administrative & waste services 1,478Local government 1,215Health care & social assistance 848Arts, entertainment, & recreation 803Finance & insurance 793Manufacturing 572Information 434Wholesale trade 362Farm 323Educational services 283Transportation & warehousing 239Forestry & fishing 123Federal government (civilian) 118Mining 101Federal government (military) 84Corporate & regional headquarters 49State government 40Utilities 18Total 21,976SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

● Blaine County's industry employment reflects exactly what it is: a fast-growing county with a tourism based economy.

● High employment totals for construction and real estate indicate fast growth. In a less dynamic county, these job totals would be lower.

● Abundant numbers of jobs in accomodation and food services, retail trade, and personal services underscore the importance of tourism to the county.

BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES

Industry 2001-2006 Net Chg. 2006 Location QuotientReal estate +610 2.36Construction +482 2.46Retail trade +313 0.95Personal & other services +296 1.27Local government +245 0.70Administrative & waste services +225 1.12Professional & technical services +222 1.18Finance & insurance +218 0.76Arts, entertainment, & recreation +206 1.80Accommodation & food services +192 1.91Information +143 0.98Educational services +94 0.62Manufacturing +86 0.31Wholesale trade +49 0.45Federal government (civilian) +16 0.34Health care & social assistance +12 0.39Corporate & regional headquarters +9 0.21Federal government (military) +5 0.33Transportation & warehousing +5 0.34Utilities +4 0.26Forestry & fishing +2 0.98State government -2 0.06Farm -9 0.91Mining -35 0.92Total +3,388 1.00SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

above average (>1.25)average (0.75 to 1.25)below average (<0.75)

SWOTSWOT | | Initial thoughtsInitial thoughts

BLAINE Co. | weaknessesBLAINE Co. | weaknessesTALENT• Difficulty in recruiting &

retaining workers• Limited higher educationINNOVATION• Lack of diversity in

economyPLACE• Cost of living • Limited developable land• Accessibility/isolation

ORGANIZATION• No cohesive economic

development efforts (no dedicated organization)

• Lack of countywide consensus

SHORT-TERM• National economy (effects on tourism, real estate, etc.)• Reduction in flight service (airlines struggling)• Continued loss of employers & young workers

LONG-TERM• Aging population (workforce & tourists)• Instability in energy costs (effects on commuters &

visitors)• Rental rates burdening local businesses• Increase in traffic

BLAINE Co. | threatsBLAINE Co. | threats

TALENT• Educated/skilled workforce• Entrepreneurial culture• Public schools above state avg.

INNOVATION• Healthcare/hospital• Home-grown success stories (Scott, Power, Smith, Rocky Mountain)

PLACE• Plentiful outdoor recreational opportunities• Other amenities (cultural, local retail)• Established destination/national name recognition

BLAINE Co. | strengthsBLAINE Co. | strengths

BLAINE Co. | opportunitiesBLAINE Co. | opportunitiesSHORT-TERM• Countywide economic

development program• BRE program• Talent retention &

recruitment campaign• Strengthening

entrepreneurial efforts• Bus linkage between Blaine

& Twin

LONG-TERM• Airport relocation• Redevelopment of airport site• Other site-specific

(redevelopment & greenfield)• International investment• Higher education?• Cluster development:

– Diversify tourism options– Green/sustainability– Health/wellness– Research & development

DiscussionDiscussion

7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305Austin, TX 78731512.343.9113 tel512.343.9190 fax

www.TIPstrategies.com

alan@tipstrategies.commeredith@tipstrategies.com

Thank youThank you

TIP Strategies, Inc.