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Risk ManagementRisk Management

Public Perception of RiskPublic Perception of Risk�� Public concern about risk is wide ranging and the Public concern about risk is wide ranging and the

primary source for risk assessment comes from primary source for risk assessment comes from media sourcesmedia sources

�� The public tends to overestimate many varieties of The public tends to overestimate many varieties of risk when compared to expert opinion and risk when compared to expert opinion and quantitative factors such as mortality ratesquantitative factors such as mortality rates

�� Even experts have difficultly agreeing on risk, but Even experts have difficultly agreeing on risk, but they have produced useful reports on relative riskthey have produced useful reports on relative risk

�� Public often relies on outrage factors to define risk Public often relies on outrage factors to define risk levelslevels

•• Voluntariness, Control,Voluntariness, Control, Fairness, Process, Fairness, Process, Morality, Familiarity, Memorability, Dread, etc.Morality, Familiarity, Memorability, Dread, etc.

�� Experts should pay attention to outrage factors, Experts should pay attention to outrage factors, including education to decrease concern about including education to decrease concern about light to med riskslight to med risks

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Risk Assessment as a Risk Assessment as a

Regulatory ScienceRegulatory Science�� In light of different approaches to risk assessment In light of different approaches to risk assessment

and relative “opinions” of risk, how should and relative “opinions” of risk, how should regulations be developedregulations be developed

�� ((Science vs.Science vs. Opinion) vs. (Different Stakeholder Opinion) vs. (Different Stakeholder Viewpoints)Viewpoints)

�� Is Risk Assessment Science or Opinion (or Both)?Is Risk Assessment Science or Opinion (or Both)?

•• Regulatory or Mandated Science is not strictly Regulatory or Mandated Science is not strictly ScienceScience

�� Objective Risk (Rational?) vs. Subjective Risk Objective Risk (Rational?) vs. Subjective Risk (Irrational?)(Irrational?)

�� Assumptions and Objectives can impact outcomes in Assumptions and Objectives can impact outcomes in both Risk Assessment and in Risk Managementboth Risk Assessment and in Risk Management

�� If risk assessment cannot be completely detached If risk assessment cannot be completely detached from politics, social values, public debate, from politics, social values, public debate, democracy, and so on, how does this impact on the democracy, and so on, how does this impact on the engineer’s obligations to public welfare?engineer’s obligations to public welfare?

The Conceptual Risks of Risk The Conceptual Risks of Risk

Assessment Assessment �� Risk Assessment may be considered a “developing science”Risk Assessment may be considered a “developing science”

�� But is it objective and transparent? And can risk assessment But is it objective and transparent? And can risk assessment itself create ethical dilemmas and introduce added risk?itself create ethical dilemmas and introduce added risk?

�� ““Risk is generally defined as a compound measure of the Risk is generally defined as a compound measure of the perceived probability and magnitude of adverse effect”perceived probability and magnitude of adverse effect”

�� Standard Risk Assessment Methodology may use different Standard Risk Assessment Methodology may use different approaches and each step involves bias and value judgmentsapproaches and each step involves bias and value judgments

1.1. Risk IdentificationRisk Identification

�� Case clusters,Case clusters, comparisons, animal studies, biocomparisons, animal studies, bio--statistics, statistics, etc.etc.

2.2. Risk EstimationRisk Estimation

�� DoseDose--response relationship,response relationship, population at risk, exposure population at risk, exposure levellevel

3.3. Risk Evaluation Risk Evaluation

�� RCBA, revealed & expressed preferences, natural RCBA, revealed & expressed preferences, natural standardsstandards

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Problems and Dilemmas of Risk Problems and Dilemmas of Risk

AssessmentAssessment�� Inhaber’s Risk Assessment (AECB report in journal Science)Inhaber’s Risk Assessment (AECB report in journal Science)

•• Found that solar and wind riskier than nuclear and coal. How?Found that solar and wind riskier than nuclear and coal. How?

•• Assumed all sources hooked to grid, alternative energy requires Assumed all sources hooked to grid, alternative energy requires coal backup, equated radiation sick days or deaths to other riskscoal backup, equated radiation sick days or deaths to other risks

�� Contributer’s DilemmaContributer’s Dilemma•• Accepting risks from cumulative effects of small acceptable risksAccepting risks from cumulative effects of small acceptable risks

�� Threshold DilemmaThreshold Dilemma•• Risk thresholds based on averages aren’t evenly/fairly distributedRisk thresholds based on averages aren’t evenly/fairly distributed

�� Consent DilemmaConsent Dilemma•• People who “consent” to higher risks might not be fully educatedPeople who “consent” to higher risks might not be fully educated

�� Possible solutions to improve systemsPossible solutions to improve systems•• Use ethically weighted Risk Benefit Cost Analysis parametersUse ethically weighted Risk Benefit Cost Analysis parameters

•• Use an adversarial system of assessment to generate alternativesUse an adversarial system of assessment to generate alternatives

•• Involve the publicInvolve the public

Technological Hazards and the Technological Hazards and the

EngineerEngineer�� Hazards originate from many different sourcesHazards originate from many different sources

•• Various case examples: Aluminum wiring, Oil Rig Various case examples: Aluminum wiring, Oil Rig Alexander L. Kielland, Kanemi’s RiceAlexander L. Kielland, Kanemi’s Rice--Oil, ComputerOil, Computer--Based Police Files, Fast Ships At Sea (Titanic), Lack of Based Police Files, Fast Ships At Sea (Titanic), Lack of Commitment (Toxic Waste)Commitment (Toxic Waste)

�� Society’s Response vs. the Engineer’s ReactionSociety’s Response vs. the Engineer’s Reaction

•• Society relies on laws such as Torts and Contracts and Society relies on laws such as Torts and Contracts and expects good design to have redundancy and failexpects good design to have redundancy and fail--safessafes

•• Engineers recognize uncertainties and design using Engineers recognize uncertainties and design using safety factorssafety factors

•• Safety Factor = Design Limit / Operation load LimitSafety Factor = Design Limit / Operation load Limit

•• But simple safety factors aren’t always enough But simple safety factors aren’t always enough (overlapping probability distributions, public policy (overlapping probability distributions, public policy objectives, etc.)objectives, etc.)

�� To protect the public, engineers must take responsibility for To protect the public, engineers must take responsibility for risks and uncertainty, and engage in participatory processesrisks and uncertainty, and engage in participatory processes

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What do you Care what Other What do you Care what Other

People Think? People Think? �� Richard Feynman on the Challenger DisasterRichard Feynman on the Challenger Disaster

�� Management, Astronauts,Management, Astronauts, and Engineers all had and Engineers all had different perceptions of risk different perceptions of risk –– how did this how did this impact on the design and disaster?impact on the design and disaster?

�� ““For a successful technology, reality must take For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.” cannot be fooled.” –– Great Quote for Engineers!!Great Quote for Engineers!!

�� Also a great book and a great physicist, author, Also a great book and a great physicist, author, personality…personality…

�� How does acceptance of risk apply to the How does acceptance of risk apply to the Columbia disaster?Columbia disaster?

Is Idiot Proof Safe Enough? Is Idiot Proof Safe Enough?

�� What is meant by “Idiot Proof”?What is meant by “Idiot Proof”?

�� Where does risk from uncertainties come from Where does risk from uncertainties come from when designing new products? when designing new products?

�� What are the biggest contributors to What are the biggest contributors to uncertainty?uncertainty?

�� How might a rational design process remove How might a rational design process remove uncertainty to deliver an “Idiot Proof” design?uncertainty to deliver an “Idiot Proof” design?

�� How can you assign probability to the How can you assign probability to the “unknown”?“unknown”?

�� How can Idiot Proof design methodology How can Idiot Proof design methodology contribute to increased risk?contribute to increased risk?

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Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

�� “Our Common Future”, Report of the World “Our Common Future”, Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland Report, (Brundtland Report, 19871987))

�� What is “Sustainable Development”?What is “Sustainable Development”?

•• “Sustainable development is development “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”generations to meet their own needs.”

�� How do we define “needs”?How do we define “needs”?

�� What are the limitations imposed on the What are the limitations imposed on the environment by technology and social policy?environment by technology and social policy?

Lovelock’s GaiaLovelock’s Gaia�� “Ages of Gaia”, James Lovelock (Look out @ “Ages of Gaia”, James Lovelock (Look out @

www)www)

�� What is Gaia theory?What is Gaia theory?

•• Life is a planetary scale phenomenon!Life is a planetary scale phenomenon!

•• Life is immortal and does not need to Life is immortal and does not need to reproduce!reproduce!

•• There cannot be “partial occupation” of a There cannot be “partial occupation” of a planet.planet.

•• Evolution pertains to species and even rocks Evolution pertains to species and even rocks as a whole!as a whole!

•• Macro ecosystems may be considered more Macro ecosystems may be considered more stable.stable.

�� Why is this relevant to engineers?Why is this relevant to engineers?

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Engineer’s Environmental GuidelinesEngineer’s Environmental Guidelines1.1. develop and maintain a realistic level of understanding of develop and maintain a realistic level of understanding of

environmental issues related to the engineer's field of expertise.environmental issues related to the engineer's field of expertise.

2.2. seek out and use as necessary the supplemental expertise of seek out and use as necessary the supplemental expertise of specialists to assess the environmental implications of specialists to assess the environmental implications of engineering activities. engineering activities.

3.3. apply professional and responsible judgment with respect to apply professional and responsible judgment with respect to environmental considerations. environmental considerations.

4.4. ensure that environmental planning and management are ensure that environmental planning and management are integrated into all the engineer's professional activities.integrated into all the engineer's professional activities.

5.5. in the evaluation of an engineering project, consider the cost of in the evaluation of an engineering project, consider the cost of environmental protection for the entire life of the project environmental protection for the entire life of the project including its final closure. including its final closure.

6.6. strive to have pollution prevention implemented at the strive to have pollution prevention implemented at the production source and to manage wastes appropriately.production source and to manage wastes appropriately.

7.7. cooperate with public authorities, and strive to respond to cooperate with public authorities, and strive to respond to environmental concerns in a timely fashion. environmental concerns in a timely fashion.

8.8. comply with legislation and consider where feasible, additional comply with legislation and consider where feasible, additional environmental protection. environmental protection.

9.9. work actively with others to improve environmental work actively with others to improve environmental understanding and practices.understanding and practices.