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Sustainability and Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific

Victoria Keener, PhDEast-West Center

April 15, 2013

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Most Common Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

• Necessary for life on Earth – without them, it would be about 33°C (91°F) colder

• Water vapor (H2O)

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

• Methane (CH4)

• Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

• Ozone (O3)

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An 800,000 Year History of Carbon Dioxide

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbgUE04Y-Xg&feature=youtu.be

NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio Data provided by Robert B. Schmunk (NASA/GSFC GISS)

Global average temperatures have been above average for the past 332 months (about 27 years).

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Predicted Global Warming

Even if we kept CO2 emissions at 2000 levels, there will still be residual warming. The question is how much the eventual

temperature rise will be. So far, scientists have underestimated the rise in almost every variable.

The world is on track to live this

future

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Indicators of a Changing Climate in the Pacific Islands Region

(Fig

ure

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tesy

Sus

an Y

amam

oto,

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Visio

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What are some global impacts of climate change?

• Changing precipitation patterns • Changed agricultural productivity– Food security

• Increasing severity of extreme events– Flood, drought, intense storms

• Sea level rise– Migration from low-lying areas

• Shifts in ecosystems and fisheries• Dying coral reefs (ocean acidification, water temperature)– Tourism impacts

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What are regional impacts?

Coastal flooding and erosion

Changes in marine ecosystems

Native plant & animal stress/extinction

Threats to agriculture & indigenous cultures

Increasing migration

Imag

es c

ourt

esy:

Sus

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US

FWS,

Mig

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ence

, Mel

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)

Fresh water supplies more limited

Changing rainfall amounts and patterns

Average, max, and min air temperatures rising

Changing frequency and intensity of wind, waves, and storms

Public health and the spread of disease• Vector-borne, water-borne, and respiratory diseases

(due to air pollution and aeroallergens), are major concerns (WHO)– Increasing temperature creates more habitat for mosquitoes– Drought and flood decreases the quality of potable water– Industrial/urban development without planning decreases air

quality

Decreasing Freshwater Resources

The Aral Sea has shrunk dramatically over the last 30 years. As the sea has shrunk, there have been noticeable changes in the local climate, contaminated dust storms, the loss of drinking water and the local fishing industry.

Precipitation Patterns are Changing• Observations show that most places in the Pacific Region have

received decreased average precipitation• Most projections show increasing average precipitation, but

altered seasonal timing and changed intensity and frequency of storms and droughts

PIRCA, 2012, Courtesy Oliver Elison Timm

Agriculture & Food Security• Projected increase in monsoon rainfall (more crop growth ),

but higher air temperatures for extended times and increased plant stresses (fewer crops )

Fisheries and Reefs

• The ocean will continue to become more acidic

• Levels of primary production will be shifted; there will be countries that benefit and countries that are negatively impacted

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↑30%

↓34%

↓28%

Projected changes in primary production, From Polovina et al., 2011

2080-2099

•There are increasing observed trends in SST and ocean acidification

By 2050, many coral reefs may bleach annually

Future reef bleaching frequency based on IPCC A1b (business as usual) emissions scenarios, Burke et al., 2011; data adapted from Donner, 2009.

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Loss of Biodiversity• Land use change – development and high elevation

ecosystems disproportionately warming• Coral reef loss due to ocean warming and acidification• Invasive species more adaptive to changing climate, pushing

out endemic and endangered species

Increased Flooding and Landslides

• Climate changes compound the pressures on the environment • Rapid urbanization• Industrialization• Economic development

• Loss of agricultural revenue and additional costs for managing water resources, coastlines, and disease and other health risks will depress economic activity

Burma, Tropical Storm Nargis, May 2008

• Natural disasters during the last century in the Asia/ Pacific region: • 91% of the world’s

total death • 49% of the world’s

total damage

• The highest rates of regional SLR have occurred in the western tropical Pacific. Since the early 1990s, natural climate variability has increased the strength of the trade winds

• There will be increased stress on the western Pacific due to SLR, combined with seasonal high tides, the occurrence of La Niña, and storms

Sea Level Rise (SLR) is Non-uniform & Non-steady

Merrifield 2011

Sea-level trend for 1993-2010 from Aviso altimeter.

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• Since the 1990s, the rate of globally averaged sea-level rise has been ~3.3 mm per year

• This is twice the estimated rate for the 20th century as a whole

Sea Level is Rising

Parris et al, in press

• Climate model projections (that do not include ice-sheet contributions) are for an 0.2 – 2.0 meter rise in global sea level by 2100

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• Extreme sea level events occur when high tides combine with some non-tidal change in water level (such as from tropical and extra-tropical storms)

Increasing Average Sea Level Means More Frequent Extreme Sea Levels

• Increased coastal inundation from extreme water level events will threaten communities and wildlife

Images courtesy of USFWS, Kosrae image courtesy of Kosrae Islands Resource Management Agency staff

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This all sounds horrible…what can we do?

• The key to preparing for long-term uncertain changes is adapting to short-term changes we can already observe– Food security, flooding, erosion, loss of natural

ecosystems, sustainable energy and transport• Uncertainty is no excuse for inaction– Projects that benefit the community no matter

WHAT happens in the future– “Win-Win” scenarios

Community Resilience

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Nearshore Reef Ecosystems and Erosion

• Erosion Control of gullies in Hawaii – preventing sediment from covering the reefs

Climate change will force human migration

• There is no single legal entity that governs climate migrants

• Projections of the number of global climate migrants by 2050 range from 25 million to 1 billion

• Unlike other populations, many Pacific Islanders will not be able to migrate domestically, as their entire country is only a few feet above sea level

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The Question of Equity: Countries Resized According to CO2 Emissions

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Countries Sized by # of Participants at the 2010 UN Climate Conference

Victoria Keener, PhD KeenerV@EastWestCenter.org

Fellow, East-West Center Pacific RISA

www.PacificRISA.org

To Download the PIRCA Reports (regional): http://www.eastwestcenter.org/PIRCA

To Download the PACCSAP Reports (regional):http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/PCCSP/publications.html

To Download the 2007 IPCC Reports (global):http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml

Photo: Diana Kim, 2012 26