Sustainability Bus – Feasibility Study

This project examines the financial feasibility of operating a bus service between Eugene/Springfield and Portland.

FSI Capstone: April 16, 2013Sandy Booker, Mel Jackson,

Tash O’Brien, Yousef Rahmani, Tom Szumita

Sustainability Bus – Bus Proposal

• This proposal recommends a retrofitted executive coach as an alternative travel option to the current reimbursement or motor pool choices

• The Office of Sustainability has determined that this service will help reduce the total emissions of the University

• Bus features will include:– Extra wide seating– Wi-Fi– Conferencing capacity (fold-up conference tables with pivoting seats)

• Additional benefits of executive coach service include:– Cost savings from auto reimbursement, motor pool rentals, and auto damage and liability costs– Increased safety– Increased productivity - Rather than driving, passengers can utilize the coach as a mobile office and

meeting space

Our Question – Is this project financially feasible?

Sustainability Bus – Costing Analysis

The analysis focuses on five major factors:1. Current travel patterns2. Cost of current travel3. Cost of bus4. Review of alternative options5. Will people use the bus?

Sustainability Bus – Travel Patterns and Costs

• FY10 data was analyzed to determine reoccurring travel destination and frequency

• Data was obtained from both costs associated with the University’s motor pool and individual auto reimbursements

• The results show that – 30% of all costs were for Portland Travel– 47% of all Portland travel was on Thursday

or Friday– 14% of all travel costs were to Portland on

either Thursday or Friday

Motor Pool*Miles Trips Cost

Total 210,939 895 $70,891Portland 165,732 629 $53,843Portland (Thru-Fri) 76,531 295 $24,977

Auto ReimbursementMiles Trips Cost

Total 1,428,277 8,374 $685,257Portland 365,314 1,755 $175,270Portland (Thru-Fri) 171,332 823 $82,201

Total Travel Cost to Portland (TH-F) $107,178Percent of Total Cost to Portland 30%Percent of Portland Cost to Portland (TH-F) 47%Percent of Total cost to Portland (TH-F) 14%

* Motor Pool data is from November 2009 - November 2010

Sustainability Bus – Cost of Bus (3 Options)2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

PurchasePurchase Cost 290,000 0 0 0 0 0Other (Ins, Fuel, Maint, etc.) 50,450 51,964 53,522 55,128 56,782 58,485Total Annual Cost 340,450 51,964 53,522 55,128 56,782 58,485Cumulative Cost 340,450 392,414 445,936 501,064 557,846 616,331

Financing (5%)(10 yrs)Financing Costs (P&I) 38,184 38,184 38,184 38,184 38,184 38,184Other (Ins, Fuel, Maint, etc.) 50,450 51,964 53,522 55,128 56,782 58,485Total Annual Cost 88,634 90,148 91,706 93,312 94,966 96,669Cumulative Cost 88,634 178,782 270,488 363,800 458,766 555,435

Lease (72 months)Lease Payments 53,105 53,105 53,105 53,105 53,105 53,105Other (Ins, Fuel, Maint, etc.) 50,450 51,964 53,522 55,128 56,782 58,485Total Annual Cost 103,555 105,069 106,627 108,233 109,887 111,590Cumulative Cost 103,555 208,624 315,251 423,484 533,371 644,961

Note: UC Davis is currently running a similar program. Purchase price and annual insurance, fuel, and maintenance costs are estimated using data obtained from UC Davis.

Sustainability Bus – Feasibility Study

The question is – How many people are needed to get out of their cars and onto the bus?

Sustainability Bus – Break-Even Analysis

• Future reimbursement and motor pool costs are projected using 3% inflation• Compared to expected costs of purchase and maintenance using the financing

plan, the bus will break-even in FY17 if the annual percentage of people using the bus grows as follows: 20%, 30%, 40%, 45%, 50%

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18Motor Pool 27,293 28,112 28,955 29,824 30,719Reimbursement 89,824 92,518 95,294 98,153 101,097Auto Liability and Damage 46,158 47,542 48,969 50,438 51,951Total Travel Costs 163,274 168,173 173,218 178,414 183,767

Break-even Percentage 20% 30% 40% 45% 50%Cost Savings 32,655 83,107 152,394 232,680 324,564Cumulative Cost Savings 32,655 115,762 268,155 500,836 825,399

Annual Cost of Bus 88,634 90,148 91,706 93,312 94,966Cumulative Cost of Bus 88,634 178,782 270,488 363,800 458,766Variance (Break-Even) (55,979) (63,020) (2,333) 137,036 366,633

Sustainability Bus – How many people on the bus?

Using the break-even data and 20%, 30%, 40%, 45%, 50% growth assumption, and assuming 1.5 passengers per vehicle (current motor pool data indicates 1.67), the chart below shows on average the number of people needed to take the bus.

How many people on the bus? FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18Total Trips (FY10 Reimb and MP) 1,118 1,118 1,118 1,118 1,118Average travelers per trip 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Total travelers 1,677 1,677 1,677 1,677 1,677Average travel weeks/year 48 48 48 48 48Average travelers per week 35 35 35 35 35Break-even Percentage 20% 30% 40% 45% 50%Break-even travelers 7 10 14 16 17

Sustainability Bus – Review of All Options

1. Motor Pool• Cost per mile - $.20 for midsize, $.25 for full, $.28 for 6 passenger, and $.30 for 8 passenger• Plus daily rental - $21 for midsize, $25 for full, $28 for 9 passenger, and $28 for 8 passenger

2. Drive personal vehicle – Reimbursement• Driver reimbursed 220 miles round trip to Portland @ $.565 per mile = $124 per trip

3. Amtrak - $26 one way to Portland ($52 round trip)4. Virtual Meetings (Skyping, video teleconferencing, etc.)5. Teleportation – “Beam Me Up Pam”

• Costing data unknown• Emission usage unknown

Sustainability Bus – Survey Results

A campus-wide survey was taken, receiving approximately 250 responses. Statistically, 65% of respondents indicated they would use the bus for most or all trips if the service was offered. Additionally, the responses in the comment section were overwhelming positive, however some of the supplemental provisos raised included:

• Will it have a flexible schedule?• Where will the bus drop off?• How will I get around in Portland?• Will it be offered in reverse, Portland to Eugene in the morning?

Sustainability Bus – Feasibility Study Pros/Cons

• More time to work• Less stress and easier for someone

who doesn’t like to drive.• Portland has a great metro system

to make getting to locations easier if not the central drop off place.

• Convenient way to get to PDX airport if it went there after downtown drop off.

• More comfortable mode of transportation with the proposed bus configuration.

• Reduce emissions

• Hard to schedule to accommodate different schedules

• Loss of productivity if in PDX for 2 hrs mtg & have to wait for bus back to Eugene at 5pm.

• Lack of convenience for getting around PDX if business involves multiple stops.

• Employees would have to give up reimbursement which is currently $124.30 round trip.

Sustainability Bus – Recommendations & Next Steps

While the initial results of our analysis justifies moving forward, we recommend the following next steps:

Data Analysis• Perform a similar analysis for additional and more recent years. • Currently, all analysis was performed on data from FY10 and prior.• More recent data will help identify trends and/or inconsistencies. (i.e., Do

FY11 and FY12 show similar results?)Additional Surveying• More specific targeting: Survey any employee who has received a

reimbursement and/or used the motor pool. These employees are potential bus customers.

• Provide a more specific itinerary: Survey should include the actual “plan”. Survey comments were concerned with convenient times and locations. The survey should ask if they would use the bus for the specific itinerary, not just in general.