Sustainability – past and future trends

Sustainability – where are we going?

24th March 2010, Living Rainforest, UK

Steve Bass, Senior Fellow, IIED

Where have we come from? How embedded is sustainability?

Sustainable development: a simple idea, an eternal debate

Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet

their own needs.

Brundtland Commission 1987 > …

Rio > Joburg > Marrakesh > Kyoto > Copenhagen > Rio+20…

What has SD ‘summitry’ produced?1. SD conventions – Biodiversity, Climate, Desertification…

2. SD plans/strategies – national, local, sectoral

3. SD fora and councils – CSD, national, city, sector

4. SD legal principles – polluter pays, precaution, consent…

5. SD ‘triad’ partnerships – govt, civil society, business

6. SD codes of practice – esp in resource-intensive sectors

7. SD ‘wonks’ – but not embedded in the everyday world

8. SD frameworks – are confusing…

Has this SD ‘tool-kit’ helped anyone?

 Results 1 - 10 of about 22,000,000 for sustainable development

000s of local/informal SD initiatives

Micro-finance for solar, Bangladesh

Organopónicos, Cuba

Plant Oil Stove, Indonesia

Eden Project, UK

Eco-sanitary pads, Rwanda But poor enabling environment

Many corporate SD initiatives

SD offers a framework for handling efficiency and futures – in a way that is profitable

But policy environment is still uncertain

(WBCSD 2010)

Weak national-level governance for SD…

Causes of unsustainability are entrenched

1. Economic growth considered inviolable Debt/fossil-fuelled positional consumption in the OECD $100 growth = $0.60 poverty reduction + env damage

2. Env externalities and social inequities entrenched Little accountability/valuation of env and social capital Env unvalued, unpriced, unscrutinised, unplanned…

3. Governance maintains this status quo: Relies on failed system to solve the problems it creates Yet lacks real resilience to shocks (climate, finance…)

Rapidly growing economic activity….

… is breaching ecological limits…

Global public believes the world is going in the wrong direction...

Is the World Going in the Right Direction?“Agree”

10 Countries, 2001–9

…and public concern high for sustainability

"Very Serious," Average of 23 Countries, BBC World Service Poll 2009

The public easily turned off…

‘Who are the bossiest people on earth?’

Politicians

Religious leaders

Right-wing newspapers

Environmentalists

I’M AN ENVIRONMENTALI

ST. THINK LIKE ME!

Experts see opportunities arising from crisis: esp. new economic models & alternative energy

Globescan Poll of Sustainability Experts, 2009

‘Green economy’ is the current SD narrative

Risk of further economic collapse is the problem; green growth is the answer (OECD, G20 stimulus)

Growth is the problem – consumption-driven, debt-fuelled; ‘one planet economy’ is the answer (WWF)

Lack of decent employment and dying industries is the problem; green jobs are the answer (ILO)

Climate change is the problem; after Copenhagen, green economy is the answer (Sukhdev)

The future will be green – or not at all (Porritt)

Sustainable society is the next major transformation?

Civilisations advance by collective solutions Tribes > guilds > city-state > nation-state > united states > …

21st century: enlightened cooperation of free states? a globally constructed, yet locally rooted ‘global civil code’ desirable to Islamic, Confucian, Western, etc, traditions ‘immune system’ for tipping points (climate, water, security) built on experience of ‘what works’ for SD…

A new era for sustainability?Move on from: And do more of:

Comprehensive SD plans SD governance & finance

Privileging economic growth Wellbeing of people and nature

Market/technology-led ‘widgets’ Society-led transformations

Micro progress: isolated SD activity Macro: institutions wired together

International SD conditionality National accountability systems

Generalised pleading Specific economic/ethical cases

‘Professional’ technocratic SD SD in everyone’s education