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Arctic, energy and the elusive social

SUSTAINABILITY REGIONALIZED?

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Dr.Soc.Sci., MA Hanna Lempinen (hanna.lempinen@helsinki.fi)

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SETTING THE STAGE:ENERGY IN THE NORTH

• Expected growth in energy consumption

• Declining reserves

• Political instability in ’old’ producing areas

• Changing climate

• Evolving technologies

> eyes on the Arctic

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(Gautier et al 2009)

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VS. THE ARCTIC AS AN ”ENERGY BACKYARD”

• Estimates ≠ reserves

• Low oil prices

• Climate change > more risk and unpredictability, less demand?

• Spillover from political events?> interest ≠ activity

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TWO PROBLEMS IN THEARCTIC ENERGY STORY

• Problem 1: Understanding energy≈Production & exports of oil and gas

• Energy as repoliticized and depoliticized‒ ”Race for resources”, ”new cold war” vs.‒ Energy as value-free trade & technocracy

> efficiently sideline non-expert voices from energy debates

• Problem 2: Sidelined and simplified ’social’ ≈Socioeconomic benefits (jobs, income) ≈Indigenous sociocultural impacts of development

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> ARCTIC ENERGYSCAPE: THE CASE STUDY

• Arctic Council (endorsed) documents – the science base to support decision-making for “sustainable development”• Arctic Human Development Report I (2004) & II (2015);• Arctic Social Indicators I (2010) & II (2014)• Arctic Resilience Interim Report (2014), Arctic Resilience Report (2016)• Arctic Energy Summit final reports (2010, 2013, 2015)• AMAP Oil and Gas Assessment (2010)• AMAP’s Arctic Oil and Gas report (2007)• AACA-C report on Socioeconomic Drivers in the Arctic (2014)• Economy of the North I (2006), II (2008) & III (2015) reports

> What kind of scientific and political “truths” are being produced about energy and its social dimension in the Arctic?

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FRAMING ENERGY• Focus remains on exports of hydrocarbons

‒ BUT: Increasingly renewables: hydro, solar, wind, tidal, wave, biomass –“megatrend” (Rasmussen & Roto 2011)

‒ Beyond production: transportation, consumption, technological solutions, energy efficiency and saving – regional energy needs & poverty!

• Energy as a driver: “significant new driver” “important economic driver”, “major driver of social and economic change”, “external” driver / “subject to outside forces”

“Too often we speak and think as though […] villages and states, the economy and politics, factors of production and technological advances, the sciences and the industrial system, among countless other social structures, were all extra-human entities with their own inner laws and thus quite independent of human action and inaction” (Elias 1978, 32)

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ENERGY MEETS SOCIETY:FUELING “DEVELOPMENT”

• Sustainable development as the goal of (energy) governance (NOTE: not sustainability / sust. energy!)• ≈ positive contribution to (human) development, well-

being, quality of life, resilience …= developmental perspective

• ≈ (indigenous) participation, consultation= integrating procedural aspects

• ≈ Minimizing impacts in the Arctic= regionalized sustainability in systems world?!

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THE OXYMORON OF FOSSIL SUSTAINABILITIES

• Weak vs. strong sustainability• “Weak”: Sustaining and building capabilities• “Strong:” Sustaining the resource

• How to sustainably utilize a resource that is finite, whose demand is driven by outside forces and that has climate (and social) impacts worldwide?

• “that no lasting harm is done, for example through environmental degradation” and that the activities “produce lasting benefits, for example through contributing to the cultural, economic, environmental, and social viability of a region or a society” (AMAP 2010)

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REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT –BUT AT WHAT (GLOBAL) COST?

• The development and well-being of Arctic communities and societies hinges on fossil fuel development

• But: The biggest stressor / the greatest threat faced by Arcticenvironments and communities is climate change

• ”Clean” regional production does not solve emissions fromglobal consumption

• Solutions for regional energy needs exist & can be solved, buthow to ”solve” the hydrocarbon dependent economy?

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THANK YOU!

Hanna LempinenPostdoctoral Researcher, Aleksanteri Institute | HELSUS, University of Helsinki

Visiting Research Fellow, Arctic Centre, University of Laplandhanna.lempinen@helsinki.fi

https://fi.linkedin.com/in/lempihanna

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