1 15.February2017

Sustainable Agriculture to Implement the Paris Climate Agreement

Gernot Klepper Kiel Ins:tute for the World Economy ISCC e.V.

7th ISCC Sustainability Conference Implementa:on of the Paris COP 21 Agreement Decarboniza:on and Sustainability 15. February 2017 Brussels

2 15.February20177th Iscc Global Sustainability Conference

The Paris Climate Agreement has the objec:ve to keep the increase in global average temperature within this century to well below 2°C. This relates closely to the RCP2.6 pathway that the IPCC has analyzed.

Source: IPCC (2015) 5. Assessment Report

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Global Agriculture and Forestry currently contribute 24% to global greenhouse gas emissions

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Scenario analyses of the IPCC for the 2° goal reveal that biomass plays a crucial role in reducing GHG emissions: In transport, in electricity produc:on, and in „AFOLU“

Source: IPCC (2015) 5. Assessment Report

5 15.February20177th ISCC Global Sustainability Conference

Carbon Capture and Sequestra:on (CCS) for fossil fuels, but also for bioenergy is a major must!

Source: IPCC (2015) 5. Assessment Report

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Current bioenergy use is in the order of 50 EJ/y, agriculture overall produces roughly 350 EJ/y. There is a large varia:on of

bioenergy poten:als in the literature. This depends on a

large number of uncertain

influencing factors:

•  Food demand

•  Nutri:onal lifestyles •  Ecologic trade-offs

•  Water availability

•  Climate change

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Current integrated assessment models require up to 200 EJ/y of bioenergy by the end of the century in order to meet the 2°C target.

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2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

8 15.February20177th ISCC Global Sustainability Conference

Investment in the energy sectors is s:ll strongly biased towards fossil energy sources. Renewable energy receives only about 10 percent of investment.

Current average annual energy investments (2000-2013) in bn US$(2012)

Source: IEA (2014) World Energy Investment Outlook

Oil, 427

Gas, 252

Coal, 61

Fossil Power, 106

Renewable Power; 161

T&D, 212

Biofuels , 10 Industry, 21

Transport, 115

Buildings, 77

Efficiency

T&D: Transporta:on and Distribu:on / Renewable Power includes Nuclear

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Climate mi:ga:on through bioenergy and climte-freidly agriculture is only a part of sustainable agriculture. The UN SDGs men:on many more roles for agriculture: Social (zero hunger, affordable energy) and economic (no poverty)