sustainable biomass supply in the eu dr. berien elbersen, alterra
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Sustainable biomass supply in the EU Dr. Berien Elbersen, Alterra. Presented at the Biomass Futures-FNR Workshop Biomass sustainability criteria November 30, 2010 in Berlin. 1. Outline. Environmentally sustainable biomass availability - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010
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Sustainable biomass supply in the EU
Dr. Berien Elbersen, Alterra
Presented at the Biomass Futures-FNR Workshop Biomass sustainability criteriaNovember 30, 2010 in Berlin
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010
Outline • Environmentally sustainable biomass availability• Estimates of different biomass potentials and
related sustainability considerations– Waste– By-products agriculture– Dedicated cropping
• Cost-supply relations• Conclusions and further steps
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June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010
Biomass categories included
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• Biomass from waste– Waste biomass– Primary, secondary, tertiary residues
• Biomass from agriculture– Dedicated cropping– Primary residues (straw, prunnings, manure)
• Biomass from forestry– Round wood production– Additionally harvested wood– Primary forestry residues– Secondary forestry residues
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Environmental constraints • Different biomass resources have different
sustainability considerations:
– Waste products – By-products – Forestry products– Dedicated cropping
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No sustainability constraints
Many sustainability constraints
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Wastes
Source: Eurostat waste statistics (year 2008).
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Present recovery of which some going to bioenergy
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Verge grass
EU: 1.9 mln TOE(2% of total potential)
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Summary for wastes
Waste categories
Potential mln
TOE% of total potential
Present recovery rate
Verge grass 1.9 1 Unknown
Wood waste 32.3 23Very high in most
countries
Animal waste from food industry 2.8 2
High in some countries
Organic waste from households and industry 25.7 18
High in some countries
Paper cardboard 50.4 36Very high in most
countries
Common sludges 3.7 3 Low
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Conclusions on waste potential
• Overall large potential, but other competing uses, especially for cardboard and wood-wastes
• Practically no sustainability problems related to the use
• Present collection systems different in EU• In principle cheap resource, but still many
logistical problems related to collection• EU wide data on availability unreliable
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Agricultural by-products
• Manure• Straw• Prunings
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ManureFactors determining potential:• Type and animal numbers (LSU/ ha forage area)• Sustainability constraints:
– Loss of soil fertility (over-exploitation of manure)– Abandonment of grazing (abandonment of land) to move
to housing system and collect manure• Therefore the sustainable potential is only the the
surplus manure (surplus= >170 kgN/ha)• Source data used: Eurostat FSS, NVZ maps, own
elaborations
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010
Manure available (2005)
EU: 6.7 mln TOE (4.8% of total potential) EU: 1.6 mln TOE (1.1% of total potential)
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Straw
• JRC approach• Sources of straw: all cereals, maize (straw of corn),
rapeseed, sunflower• Sustainability constraints:
– too much straw removal could lead to soil fertility (Soil C) loss
• Therefore estimated sustainably harvested potential (40% for cereals and 50% for rest)
• Minus competing uses (animal bedding, mushroom production)
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Straw
EU: 16 mln TOE (12% of total potential) EU: 28 mln TOE (based on CAPRI baseline scenario 2020)
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By-products from pruning and clearing
Factors determining potential:• Permanent cropping area (e.g. vineyards, fruit trees,
nuts and berries, olives and citrus)• Sustainability constraints:
– Some risk of soil compaction, if heavy machinery used– Loss of soil carbon when roots removed of old plantations,
certainly when ploughed up after many years
• Source data used: Eurostat FSS, own elaborations
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Pruning material available (2005)
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Total pruning material (2005)
EU: 6.7 mln TOE
(5% of the total present potential)
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Dedicated cropping: sustainability
GHG-emission BiodiversityArable land used for feed and food production is displaced for production of biomass
Usually positive as long as it does not lead to high input use
Usually positive as long as it does not lead to more intensive land use and large loss of fallow land
Leads to production of displaced food in other place where it may lead to the conversion of natural ecosystems into arable land. This may lead to important biodiversity loss and huge GHG emissions
Idle land is used for biomass production
Often negative. Ploughing-up idle land usually leads to enormous release of carbon stock (depends on land + practice)
Positive or negative, depends on what type of idle land is used
No effect
Direct effects Indirect effects
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Biomass cropping/harvesting effects on environment through:
- Land use change effect (including iluc)- Conversion of natural/semi-natural land use categories
(e.g. tropical forests, extensive grasslands) - Conversion of degraded land - Conversions in existing arable land (e.g. from annual to
perennial)- Intensification/extensification effect in existing
agricultural lands because of an overall change in practice (e.g. crops, input use)
- Climate change effect, mitigation (?) reduces adverse effects on biodiversity
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Dedicated bioenergy crops 2008
Maize OSR Sugarbeet Sunflower Cereals Perennials Total
AT 53.0 11.5 0.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 72.6
BG 0.0 0.0 0.0 243.5 0.0 0.0 243.5
BE 1.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 7.3
CZ 0.0 122.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 122.0
DE 399.5 1800.9 2.4 0.0 253.5 3.6 2459.8
DK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 170.5 8.5 179.0
GR 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 9.3
ES 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.9 28.0 0.1 96.9
FI 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 79.2 80.3
FR 53.9 1378.1 52.4 68.2 622.6 14.9 2190.1
HU 0.0 11.8 0.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 24.5
IE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.9
IT 0.0 5.3 0.0 54.0 0.0 73.6 132.9
NL 1.2 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
PL 0.0 1477.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 117.6 1594.6
PT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
RO 0.0 13.8 0.0 493.3 0.0 0.0 507.0
SE 0.0 61.5 0.0 0.0 55.2 45.0 161.7
UK 0.0 427.2 0.0 0.0 32.9 21.7 481.8
Total 508.8 5318.6 54.8 955.8 1168.8 371.1 8378.1
% 0.4% 4.4% 0% 0.8% 1% 0.3% 6.9%
Present situation
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Land & water requirements bioenergy: presentSituation 2005-
2008 main feedstockArea biofuel crop
(mln ha.)% total cropped
area% total irrigation
withdrawals
Brazil Sugarcane 2.4 5 3.5
USA Maize 3.8 3.5 2.7
Canada Wheat 0.3 1.1 1.4
Germany Wheat& OSR 1.6 10 0
France Sugarbeat &OSR 1.5 8 0
Italy Wheat 0.1 1.7 0
Spain Wheat 0.3 2.2 0
Sweden Wheat 0 1.3 0
UK Sugarbeet 0.1 2.4 0
China Maize 1.9 1.1 2.2
India Sugarcane 0.3 0.2 1.2
Thailand Sugarcane 0 0.3 1.9
Indonesia Sugarcane 0 0.1 1.2
S. Afrika Sugarcane 0.1 1.1 9.8
World total 12.4 1 1.1
Source: De Fraiture et al., 2007 and Eurostat, own adjustments
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Future situation?
• Biofuel crops• Perennial crops
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2020 CAPRI biofuel cropping EUProduct coverage in the CAPRI 2020 biofuel module: BAS scenario
BiofuelFeedstock By-product
Ethanol WheatCoarse grains (maize, barley, oats, sorghum)Sugar
DDGSGluten feed
Biodiesel Oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower), palm oil
Oil meals and cakes
Shock: EU biofuel demand in 2020
Baseline (RED)Counterfactual (No-RED)
Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel
Production (million litres) 17790 24243 6192 1664
Consumption (million litres) 21239 28196 6680 1995
From first generation biofuels 17935 23220 6680 1995
From second generation biofuels 3304 4976 0 0
Source: IPTS (2010) CAPRI derived these from AGLINK-COSIMO simulations.
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CAPRI supply distribution 2020 RED
EU-production % Imports % Amount (1000 ton)
MAIZ 85.9 14.1 68838
RAPE 66.8 33.2 13876
SUNF 64.4 35.6 8066
SOYA 0.0 100.0 1492
SUGB 100.0 0.0 118969
CERE 2.4 97.6 316817
OILS 0.0 100.0 23434
But demand for imported biodiesel and bioethanol not included!
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CAPRI-2020 RED
• Net change in:– Land use (cropping pattern)– Livestock (numbers+types)
• This effect was assessed within EU in EEA study– Soil N2O emissions– Changes in Soil C– N-Leaching (inside and outside HNV farmland)
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Effect: Soil N2O emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Austria
Bulgaria
Belgium
Czech
Republic
German
y
Denmark
Estonia
GreeceSp
ain
Finlan
dFra
nce
Hungary
Ireland Ita
ly
Lithua
niaLa
tvia
Netherlan
ds
Poland
Portuga
l
Romania
Sweden
Slove
nia
Slova
kia
United Ki
ngdom
EU27
Soil
N2O
em
issi
on (k
g N
2O-N
/ha)
2003
2020 RED
2020 no RED
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Net impact of Soil C (2004-2020 compared)
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Change in N-surplusHNV +
RED
HNV +
NO RED
NO HNV +
RED
NO HNV+
NO RED
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Future dedicated cropping with perennials
• Based on land availability and cropping mix as predicted by CAPRI in baseline scenario
• 3 options:– High support for cropping, competes with arable crops on
good-medium productive arable lands– Some cropping support, is economic on fallow land and
former olives and vineyards i.e. the lower productive lands– Some support for establishment and bringing back into
production of abandoned land in areas with large abandoned land resource
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On good-medium productive arable lands
• Assumption of 5% of 2020 good-medium quality land
• High yield per hectare
• Very large indirect land effects
• Southern Europe large pressure on scarce water resources
• Largest potential: 30 Mln TOE
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On low productive arable lands• Assumption: 10% of
2020 fallow, olive and vineyards
• Medium-low yield per hectare
• Limited indirect land effects
• Large adverse effects on biodiversity
• Lowest potential: 10 mln TOE
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On former abandoned lands
• Estimate: regional abandoned land share 5%-10% of UAA. Of this 5% used for dedicated biomass cropping
• Low yield per hectare• No indirect land effects• Some negative effects on
biodiversity• Effect on soil C: tbd• Average potential:
15.5 mln TOE
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Conclusions dedicated cropping
• Present dedicated cropping area still relatively small both inside and outside EU.
• In 2020 net environmental effect of biofuel dedicated cropping in EU still relatively small, not very large difference with No-RED situation.
• But environmental effect is expected to be much larger outside EU (cereal, sugar, soya, palm-oil demand).
• Environmental effects of dedicated cropping with perennials could be diverse depending on stimulation methods. Abandoned lad option should be investigated further.
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Cost-supply
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Elasticity price FR
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Cost-supply France
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FRANCEprice
(€/ktOE) Kton priceCum. Kton
animal waste -42 1594 -42 1594
Organic waste Industry+HH -42 4885 -42 6478
common sludges -42 1326 -42 7805
wet manure 0 17138 0 24943
Verge grass 21 719 21 25662
paper cardboard 21 10993 21 36655
wood-waste 39 8610 39 45265
OSR 2008 50 2634 50 47899
Sunflower 2008 50 130 50 48029
straw_2020 75 22269 75 70298
dry manure 84 224 84 70522
straw_2004 100 8920 100 79441
prunings 123 2911 123 82352
Perennials 2008 130 31 130 82384
Maize 2008 214 351 214 82735
Cereals 411 1936 411 84671
Sugarbeet 2008 415.9 1150.2 416 85821
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Cost-supply Netherlands
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Elasticity price NL
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
NETHERLANDS price (€/ktOE) Kton priceCum. Kton
animal waste -42 507 -42 507
Organic waste from
industry+HH -42 10253 -42 10760
common sludges -42 669 -42 11429
dry manure -21 404 -21 11833
wet manure 0 24834 0 36667
verge grass 21 136 21 36804
paper cardboard 21 3632 21 40435
wood-waste 27 2113 27 42548
OSR 2008 50 12 50 42561
prunings 126 40 126 42601
straw_2004 130 99 130 42700
straw_2020 136 136 136 42836
Maize 2008 300 8 300 42844
Sugarbeet 2008 0 42844
Sunflower 2008 0 42844
Cereals 0 42844
Perennials 2008 0 42844
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Cost-supply Germany
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Germanyprice
(€/ktOE) Kton priceCummulative Kton
animal waste -42 333 -42 333
bmw -42 10792 -42 11126
common sludges -42 529 -42 11655
dry manure 0 88 0 11743
wet manure 0 13785 0 25528
bermgras 21 675 21 26202
paper cardboard 21 22602 21 48804
OSR 2008 50 3442 50 52246
wood-waste 64 9473 64 61719
straw_2004 93 13142 93 74861
straw_2020 98 15559 98 90420
prunings 110 417 110 90836
Perennials 2008 148 8 148 90844
Maize 2008 218 2601 218 93444
Cereals 416 788 416 94233
Sugarbeet 2008 562.4157549 52.689 562 94285
Sunflower 2008 0 94285
Elasticity price DE
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
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Elasticity price PL
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cost-supply Poland
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POLANDprice
(€/ktOE) Kton priceCummulative Kton
animal waste -42 2138 -42 2138
bmw -42 20103 -42 22241
common sludges -42 571 -42 22812
dry manure 0 2 0 22814
wet manure 0 363 0 23177
wood-waste 18 5319 18 28496
paper cardboard 21 9407 21 37903
bermgras 21 206 21 38109
prunings 47 668 47 38777
OSR 2008 50 2823 50 41600
straw_2020 100 8719 100 50319
straw_2004 105 4830 105 55150
Perennials 2008 148 248 148 55397
Maize 2008 0 55397
Sugarbeet 2008 0 55397
Sunflower 2008 0 55397
Cereals 0 55397
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Total cost-supply EU 2008
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Elasticity of biomass price in EU27
0
200000
400000
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Price (€/KTOE)
Cu
mu
lati
ve
am
ou
nt
of
bio
ma
ss
(k
ton
/ye
ar)
-Very large potential at very low price:
1)>50% industrial + household wastes, but now mostly unused or not for bioenergy
2) By-products agriculture (straw, prunings)
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010
Conclusions
• Largest cheap potential in waste. Improved organisation of collection, treatment, logistics will increase access to this resource
• By-products from agriculture also have important potential, now still underutilized
• Sustainability constraints on dedicated cropping are significant both inside and outside EU and will have important effects on economic availability
• Forestry potential should be included. Will certainly add importantly
June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010
Future work • Draft results need further critical review and
improvements• Scenario application to extrapolate present
potentials to future technical-economic and sustainable potential
• Forestry potential still to be included (updated EFI work)
• Cuttings/pruning from landscape elements, recreational and nature conservation areas should still be mapped (but difficult)
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