sustainable development and driving technology advances in future energy a frost & sullivan...
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Sustainable Development and Driving Technology Advances in Future Energy
A Frost & Sullivan Market InsightBy
Pinaki BhaduryFrost & Sullivan (I) Pvt. Ltd.
26th August 2011
In the next 20 years, Earth’s Energy demand will increase by 30%, will emit 39% more CO2, Earth’s temperature will rise by 3°C, yet there will be water deficit of 40%!
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Highlights
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This will increase the demand for all the supporting resources – Energy, Water, Air and LandmassThis will increase the demand for all the supporting resources – Energy, Water, Air and Landmass
In the next 20 years:In the next 20 years:
Energy consumption is expected to increase by 30%Energy consumption is expected to increase by 30%
Coal consumption will increase by 53%Coal consumption will increase by 53%
CO2 emission will increase by 39%CO2 emission will increase by 39%
The world’s population is expected to expand by 35% in the next 40 yearsThe world’s population is expected to expand by 35% in the next 40 years
Water deficit of 40%Water deficit of 40%
But the World’s Landmass, Water and Environment can’t expand!!But the World’s Landmass, Water and Environment can’t expand!!
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Present Scenario – World
Coal : 6.185 Billion MT
Energy : 510 Quadrillion BTU
CO2 : 22.828 Billion MT
Water : 4500 Billion M3
Economy : 65 Trillion $
6.67 Billion
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Present Scenario – India
Coal : 549 Million MT
Energy : 21 Quadrillion BTU
CO2 : 1.61 Billion MT
Water : 803 Billion M3
Economy : 1.6 Trillion $
1.21 Billion
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World Energy Consumption
Source : EIA2010, Washington
Source : EIA 2010, Washington
Energy UsageEnergy Usage
Energy Consumption TrendEnergy Consumption Trend
• Fuel Oil continue to be the main source of energy, mainly for transportation use
• Coal comes in second being used predominantly for power generation followed by industry
• Natural Gas at third place for power generation, domestic use and industry
• Fuel Oil continue to be the main source of energy, mainly for transportation use
• Coal comes in second being used predominantly for power generation followed by industry
• Natural Gas at third place for power generation, domestic use and industry
• Natural Gas consumption grew the most at 56% in past 20 years
• Next highest growth was Renewables at 54%, mostly coming from Wind Energy
• Minimum growth in consumption was by fuel oils at 27%
• Natural Gas consumption grew the most at 56% in past 20 years
• Next highest growth was Renewables at 54%, mostly coming from Wind Energy
• Minimum growth in consumption was by fuel oils at 27%
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India Energy Consumption
Source : BP Energy Statistics 2010
Source : BP Energy Statistics 2010
Energy Consumption TrendEnergy Consumption Trend• In keeping with the global trend, Natural Gas
consumption grew highest at 414% in past 20 years
• Next highest growth was Nuclear at 261%• Coal consumption grew by 191% in 20 years • Minimum growth in consumption was by
Hydroelectricity 68%• CAGR growth trends have been almost 4
times more than the world average
• In keeping with the global trend, Natural Gas consumption grew highest at 414% in past 20 years
• Next highest growth was Nuclear at 261%• Coal consumption grew by 191% in 20 years • Minimum growth in consumption was by
Hydroelectricity 68%• CAGR growth trends have been almost 4
times more than the world average
Energy UsageEnergy Usage
• Coal continues to be the main source of energy, being used for Electricity Generation
• Oil comes in second being used predominantly for Transportation
• Natural Gas at third place for power generation, domestic use and industry
• Coal continues to be the main source of energy, being used for Electricity Generation
• Oil comes in second being used predominantly for Transportation
• Natural Gas at third place for power generation, domestic use and industry
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World Electricity Generation
Electricity Consumption TrendElectricity Consumption Trend
• In 2010, World consumed 21325.1 Twh of electricity
• This was 79.8% more than what it consumed in 1990
• China and US alone consumed 71% of world’s electricity generation
• China’s consumption grew by 6 times as compared to 1990
• While India’s consumption grew by 2.3 times in the last 20 years
• Though share of electricity in the world is just 8%
• In 2010, World consumed 21325.1 Twh of electricity
• This was 79.8% more than what it consumed in 1990
• China and US alone consumed 71% of world’s electricity generation
• China’s consumption grew by 6 times as compared to 1990
• While India’s consumption grew by 2.3 times in the last 20 years
• Though share of electricity in the world is just 8%
Electricity Generation SourceElectricity Generation Source
• Coal continues to be the main for Electricity Generation
• Natural Gas comes in second place followed by Renewables
• Coal continues to be the main for Electricity Generation
• Natural Gas comes in second place followed by Renewables
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India Electricity Generation
Indian Electricity ScenarioIndian Electricity Scenario
• Indian electricity generation is fourth highest in the world, very close to Japan’s figure
• Electricity generation in India has seen a growth of 2.64 times in 20 years
• Though installed capacity wise coal based plants are only 54% of the total capacity, in generation it is as high as 79% of the total energy consuming 401 Million T of coal
• India’s coal reserves are estimated at 106 Billion Tonnes, of which only 50 – 55% can be mined as rest is considered to be under eco-sensitive areas
• However, per capita electricity consumption is only 707 kWH as against a world average of 2000 kWH
• Indian electricity generation is fourth highest in the world, very close to Japan’s figure
• Electricity generation in India has seen a growth of 2.64 times in 20 years
• Though installed capacity wise coal based plants are only 54% of the total capacity, in generation it is as high as 79% of the total energy consuming 401 Million T of coal
• India’s coal reserves are estimated at 106 Billion Tonnes, of which only 50 – 55% can be mined as rest is considered to be under eco-sensitive areas
• However, per capita electricity consumption is only 707 kWH as against a world average of 2000 kWH
Indian Energy Consumption ScenarioIndian Energy Consumption Scenario
• Energy 21 Billion BTU of which• Coal 549 Million Tonnes• Lignite 16.30 Million Tonnes• Natural Gas 47.51 Billion M3• Crude Oil 33.691 Million Tonnes• Electricity 811 Billion Units• CO2 Generated 1607 Million Metric
Tonnes• Ash Generated 139 Million MT
• Energy 21 Billion BTU of which• Coal 549 Million Tonnes• Lignite 16.30 Million Tonnes• Natural Gas 47.51 Billion M3• Crude Oil 33.691 Million Tonnes• Electricity 811 Billion Units• CO2 Generated 1607 Million Metric
Tonnes• Ash Generated 139 Million MT
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India’s Energy Consumption Comparison
CountryPopulation in Billion GDP in Trillion $ Energy Electricity
Mtoe kg/capita Billion kWHkwh per capita
World 6.895 58.260 12002.4 1.741 21325.11 3092.84
United States 0.310 14.119 2285.7 7.373 4325.90 13954.52
China 1.341 4.985 2432.2 1.814 4206.54 3136.87
India 1.224 1.610 524.2 0.428 922.25 753.47
Japan 0.126 5.069 500.9 3.975 1145.27 9089.40
Russia 0.143 1.232 690.9 4.831 1036.78 7250.22
Accelerated Growth Scenario of Developing Countries – the sleeping giantsAccelerated Growth Scenario of Developing Countries – the sleeping giants
• If India increases its per capita consumption even 50% that of China, and• China increases its per capita consumption to 50% that of US, then,• The Energy demands will be many times more than the Economic estimates• Past data shows that China overtook US in energy consumption and its per capita consumption has been
increasing dramatically• India has been constrained in its infrastructure and policy issues, hence slow rate of growth in Energy
consumption• With these two most populous countries’ economy growing at one of the highest rates, soon they will be
consuming more energy on per capita basis than estimated• This will put a huge pressure on world’s energy resources
• If India increases its per capita consumption even 50% that of China, and• China increases its per capita consumption to 50% that of US, then,• The Energy demands will be many times more than the Economic estimates• Past data shows that China overtook US in energy consumption and its per capita consumption has been
increasing dramatically• India has been constrained in its infrastructure and policy issues, hence slow rate of growth in Energy
consumption• With these two most populous countries’ economy growing at one of the highest rates, soon they will be
consuming more energy on per capita basis than estimated• This will put a huge pressure on world’s energy resources
Source : EIA Statistics 2010, BP Statistics 2011 & World Bank
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World’s Resources Used in Electricity Generation by Coal
• 41% of the World’s electricity was generated using coal
• The highest contributors were China, US & India
• This resulted in:• Coal consumption of 5587.9 Million Tons
• CO2 generation of 8605.4 Million Tons
• 41% of the World’s electricity was generated using coal
• The highest contributors were China, US & India
• This resulted in:• Coal consumption of 5587.9 Million Tons
• CO2 generation of 8605.4 Million Tons
World 2010World 2010
• 69% of the India’s electricity was generated using coal
• One of the highest in the world• This resulted in:
• Coal consumption of 576.6 Million Tons
• CO2 generation of 888 Million Tons
• 69% of the India’s electricity was generated using coal
• One of the highest in the world• This resulted in:
• Coal consumption of 576.6 Million Tons
• CO2 generation of 888 Million Tons
India 2010India 2010
Source : Frost & Sullivan analysis based on various data sources
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Environment – Gaseous Emissions
• Electricity generation and transportation are the biggest contributors to CO2 emissions due to use of coal and fuel oil
• This trend has increased by 91% & 25% respectively in the last 20 years
• China is the world’s biggest CO2 emitter followed by US and India
• India overtook Russia & Japan in CO2 emissions last year
• European Union has actually decreased their CO2 emissions in the last 10 years
• Electricity generation and transportation are the biggest contributors to CO2 emissions due to use of coal and fuel oil
• This trend has increased by 91% & 25% respectively in the last 20 years
• China is the world’s biggest CO2 emitter followed by US and India
• India overtook Russia & Japan in CO2 emissions last year
• European Union has actually decreased their CO2 emissions in the last 10 years
CO2 EmissionsCO2 Emissions
Source : IEA, Paris Report on CO2 emission from Fuel Combustion 2010
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Environmental Hazards of Fossil Fuel
Coal MiningCoal Mining
• Land: Disturbance of land, forests and biodiversity• Water: Depletion of aquifers and changes in drainage pattern.• Deterioration in quality of water in receiving water bodies due to
mine/washery discharge water• Air: Fugitive dust emissions, noise, and ground-level vibrations
• Land: Disturbance of land, forests and biodiversity• Water: Depletion of aquifers and changes in drainage pattern.• Deterioration in quality of water in receiving water bodies due to
mine/washery discharge water• Air: Fugitive dust emissions, noise, and ground-level vibrations
Coal based Electricity GenerationCoal based Electricity Generation
• Particulate emissions• NOx emissions• SO2 emissions• Mercury contamination• Acid Rain• Waste from coal combustion (ash)
• Particulate emissions• NOx emissions• SO2 emissions• Mercury contamination• Acid Rain• Waste from coal combustion (ash)
Legends:
Lig. : Lignite basedCos. : Coal basedFuel : Fuel Oil basedNG : Natural Gas basedNucl. : Nuclear basedWin. : Wind basedPV : PhotovoltaicSMH : Small Micro Hydro
Source : IDAE – Report on Environmental Impacts of the production of electricity, July 2000
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The Real Cost of Conventional Energy
Source : IDAE – Report on Environmental Impacts of the production of electricity, July 2000
Source : Frost & Sullivan Analysis
• The true cost of generation from fossil fuels and sources like nuclear and hydro generation is beyond the cost of capital and operation
• It should take in to consideration the other costs associated with the source of fuel and the social as well as environmental costs associated with .
• These costs are:
• Cost of building the infrastructure apart from the location based costs
• Cost of rehabilitation of the people at the fuel source
• Environmental Impact cost
• Healthcare cost associated with fuel use and residents surrounding the mine areas
• The true cost of generation from fossil fuels and sources like nuclear and hydro generation is beyond the cost of capital and operation
• It should take in to consideration the other costs associated with the source of fuel and the social as well as environmental costs associated with .
• These costs are:
• Cost of building the infrastructure apart from the location based costs
• Cost of rehabilitation of the people at the fuel source
• Environmental Impact cost
• Healthcare cost associated with fuel use and residents surrounding the mine areas
Associated Cost of Generation from Fossil FuelsAssociated Cost of Generation from Fossil Fuels
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Environment – Water
• The estimated water demand in 2005 was 4208 Billion M3
• The estimated fresh water resource of the world is 4222 M3 creating a water shortage in the years to come
• Water demand is growing at 2% every year or, 40% increase by 2030
• With the best efforts, the fresh water source could increase to 4880 M3 and not more.
• The highest water consumers are (2005 figures)
• India 740 Billion M3
• China 618 Billion M3
• Brazil 18.7 Billion M3
• South Africa 15.0 Billion M3
• The estimated water demand in 2005 was 4208 Billion M3
• The estimated fresh water resource of the world is 4222 M3 creating a water shortage in the years to come
• Water demand is growing at 2% every year or, 40% increase by 2030
• With the best efforts, the fresh water source could increase to 4880 M3 and not more.
• The highest water consumers are (2005 figures)
• India 740 Billion M3
• China 618 Billion M3
• Brazil 18.7 Billion M3
• South Africa 15.0 Billion M3
World Water ScenarioWorld Water Scenario
Source : 2030 Water Resources Group Report
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The Road Ahead - Energy
Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009), web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).
Percentage of world totalSource : EIA Energy Outlook
• World’s Energy Demand by 2030 is estimated at 684.49 Quadrillion BTU
• An increase by 32% in 20 years
• The top 3 consumers of Energy would be:
• China 24% (up from present 16%)
• USA 15% (down from present 20%)
• India 5% (up from present 4%)
• Coal will continue to dominate the fuel share and its consumption will increase by 43% in the next 20 years
• However, it is estimated that Renewables will see the highest increase in consumption by 59% from present levels
• World’s Energy Demand by 2030 is estimated at 684.49 Quadrillion BTU
• An increase by 32% in 20 years
• The top 3 consumers of Energy would be:
• China 24% (up from present 16%)
• USA 15% (down from present 20%)
• India 5% (up from present 4%)
• Coal will continue to dominate the fuel share and its consumption will increase by 43% in the next 20 years
• However, it is estimated that Renewables will see the highest increase in consumption by 59% from present levels
Future Demand 2030 - EnergyFuture Demand 2030 - Energy
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Looking Ahead – Energy
• Maximum demand growth would come from Asia – 74% over the next 20 years
• The next highest demand growth would come from Middle East – 59% growth
• Coal consumption in China will see a sharp rise between 2010 and 2030
• 77% of coal demand in the next 20 years will come from China
• Whereas the rise in demand from India would be 48%
• These two countries along with the traditional user, US would consume most of the coal resources of the world
• They shall also continue to be the highest emitters of CO2 and use large quantities of water for coal based power generation
• It is estimated that by 2030 India may equal today’s China’s CO2 emission value of 7711 Billion Tons*, due to its sheer energy demands unless CO2 emission reduction steps are taken
• Maximum demand growth would come from Asia – 74% over the next 20 years
• The next highest demand growth would come from Middle East – 59% growth
• Coal consumption in China will see a sharp rise between 2010 and 2030
• 77% of coal demand in the next 20 years will come from China
• Whereas the rise in demand from India would be 48%
• These two countries along with the traditional user, US would consume most of the coal resources of the world
• They shall also continue to be the highest emitters of CO2 and use large quantities of water for coal based power generation
• It is estimated that by 2030 India may equal today’s China’s CO2 emission value of 7711 Billion Tons*, due to its sheer energy demands unless CO2 emission reduction steps are taken
Regional Demand TrendsRegional Demand Trends
* Source : Carbon Web – ‘An Atlas of World Pollution’
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Looking Ahead – Water Demands
Source: Recreated chart from 2030 Water Resource Group Report – “Charting our Water for Future 2010”
• Global demand for fresh water will increase from 4500 to 6900 Billion M3 by 2030
• All the fresh water resources taken together has a capacity of 4500 Billion M3 , creating a shortage of 2700 Billion M3 or 40% of the demand
• India which has a shortage of fresh water resources, will be worst hit with maximum deficit of 50% of its demand unless steps are taken for water conservation
• Global demand for fresh water will increase from 4500 to 6900 Billion M3 by 2030
• All the fresh water resources taken together has a capacity of 4500 Billion M3 , creating a shortage of 2700 Billion M3 or 40% of the demand
• India which has a shortage of fresh water resources, will be worst hit with maximum deficit of 50% of its demand unless steps are taken for water conservation
Water Demand TrendsWater Demand Trends
Source: 2030 Water Resource Group Report – “Charting our Water for Future 2010”
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Alternatives and Solutions
• Use of Renewable Energy• Solar PV
• Solar Thermal
• Wind – Macro & Micro Wind Turbines
• Fuel Cells
• Geothermal Energy
• Tidal Energy
• Government funding key to success• In the next 20 years, US 150 Billion Dollars has to be
invested in renewable technologies
• Use of Renewable Energy• Solar PV
• Solar Thermal
• Wind – Macro & Micro Wind Turbines
• Fuel Cells
• Geothermal Energy
• Tidal Energy
• Government funding key to success• In the next 20 years, US 150 Billion Dollars has to be
invested in renewable technologies
CO2 Mitigation SolutionsCO2 Mitigation Solutions
Source : IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 , IEA Cogeneration & Renewables 2011
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Alternatives and Solutions
Source : Opportunities to Transform the Electricity Sector in Major Economies – © OECD/IEA 2010
Efficiency of coal- and gas-fired electricity generation in Major Economies in 2008
Coal-fired electricity generation in Major Economies, by plant type
• Coal & Gas Fired Plants Energy• Supercritical Cycle
• IGCC
• Coal to Liquid (CTL)
• Coal to Gas (CTG)
• Coal Bed Methanation (CBM)
• Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
• Distributed Generation• Cogeneration Plants – efficiencies up to 90%
• Trigeneration Plants - efficiencies above 75% to 92%
• Stirling Engines using waste heat
• Biomass based energy generation
• Demand Side Management – has the potential to save energy demand by at least 20%
• Coal & Gas Fired Plants Energy• Supercritical Cycle
• IGCC
• Coal to Liquid (CTL)
• Coal to Gas (CTG)
• Coal Bed Methanation (CBM)
• Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
• Distributed Generation• Cogeneration Plants – efficiencies up to 90%
• Trigeneration Plants - efficiencies above 75% to 92%
• Stirling Engines using waste heat
• Biomass based energy generation
• Demand Side Management – has the potential to save energy demand by at least 20%
Efficiency Enhancement SolutionsEfficiency Enhancement Solutions
• Sea Water Desalination for Power Plants
• Water Recycle & Reuse
• Waste Water Recycle & Reuse
• Stop Water Wastage
• Sea Water Desalination for Power Plants
• Water Recycle & Reuse
• Waste Water Recycle & Reuse
• Stop Water Wastage
Water Scarcity MitigationWater Scarcity Mitigation
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Emerging Technologies for the Future
Photosynthetic Bioelectricity Photosynthetic Bioelectricity Superconducting MaterialsSuperconducting Materials
• Photosynthesis is one of the most efficient ways of producing energy.
• Found in all plants, it is the most efficient and environment-friendly way of converting the sun’s energy into electrical or other types of energy.
• Scientists are working on further development of this method of energy conversion
• Photosynthesis is one of the most efficient ways of producing energy.
• Found in all plants, it is the most efficient and environment-friendly way of converting the sun’s energy into electrical or other types of energy.
• Scientists are working on further development of this method of energy conversion
• At very low temperatures, between -320 °F (-196 °C) and -460 °F (-273 °C), certain metal and ceramic materials conduct electricity with virtually no resistance.
• Wires made of these superconducting materials can transmit 100-150 times more electricity than traditional copper wires without any losses in efficiency
• Once commercialized will reduce the size of electrical equipment drastically and increase efficiency many folds
• At very low temperatures, between -320 °F (-196 °C) and -460 °F (-273 °C), certain metal and ceramic materials conduct electricity with virtually no resistance.
• Wires made of these superconducting materials can transmit 100-150 times more electricity than traditional copper wires without any losses in efficiency
• Once commercialized will reduce the size of electrical equipment drastically and increase efficiency many folds
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Recommendations
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Recommendations
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Pinaki BhaduryVice President – Strategy Consulting (South Asia, Middle East & North Africa)
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