sustainable development strategy for ev battery · 1.supposed battery recycling volume equal...
TRANSCRIPT
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TOM ZHAO Managing Director
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
FOR EV BATTERY
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What are WE facing today ?
What can BYD do ?
What can WE do more ?
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LFP vs NCM
WE WHAT ARE
FACING TODAY ?
LFP & NMC is the mainstream of the market BYD ED Roadmap Rapid Growth of Lithium-ion Battery Cobalt price increased by leaps and bounds
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2016 2030
LFP & NMC is the mainstream of the market
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NCA 10%
NMC (111) 15%
NMC (433) 10%
NMC (532) 10%
NMC (622) 30%
NMC (811) 25%
LMO NCA LFP NMC (111)
NMC (433) NMC (532) NMC (622) NMC (811)
EV
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2016 2017-2030
LFP & NMC is the mainstream of the market
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Storage
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
LFP vs NMC
NMC LFP
E-density Wh/l
E-density Wh/l
E-density Wh/l
E-density Wh/l
E-density Wh/kg
E-density Wh/kg
E-density Wh/kg
E-density Wh/kg
Discharge C-rate
Discharge C-rate
Discharge C-rate
Discharge C-rate
Cycle life Cycle life Cycle life
Cycle life
Cost Cost Cost Cost
Safety Safety Safety Safety
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Rapid Growth of Lithium-ion Battery
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Assumes 100% of stationary is lithium-ion.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Annual GWh
Electric vehicles
Consumer goods
Stationary storage
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Cobalt would meet shortage sometime later
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Cobalt market (metric ton/year) Demand Other
Demand Storage
Demand CE
Demand E-Bus
Demand EV
Historic supply
Future supply
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, press releases, Avicenne, USGS, IDTechEX, Wealthdaily
Note: CE refers to consumer electronics, E-bus refers to electric buses
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Cobalt Price increased more than 3 times in one year
Source: cbcie.com Cobalt ≥99.8% Cobalt ≥99.3%
USD/pound
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: NMC chemistry modelled here is NMC (111). NMC battery pack cost is $223/kWh.
Cobalt is the most fluctuations factor for NMC battery Percentage change in commodity price (%)
-0.5% -0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5%1.1% 1.6%
-3.0% -1.7%
-0.8%
0.8%1.7% 3.3% 6.7% 10.0%
-1.0% -0.6%-0.3%
0.3%0.6% 1.1% 2.2% 3.4%
-0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
-150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%
Lithium
Cobalt
Nickel
Manganese
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LFP vs NCM
BYD WHAT CAN
DO ?
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BYD Strategy
Technology
Upgrading on NMC
Strong Tech. Backup-LFP
Repurpose&
Recycling
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Technology
Upgrading on NMC
Strong Tech.
Backup-LFP
Repurpose&
Recycling
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Forecast mass of used batteries coming out of electric vehicles
• Notes: ONLY EV • Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Battery Data
311,000 tonne = 25GWH
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Unit:tonne
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Battery Repurpose & Recycling
xEV Battery System
Module
Repurpose
Cell Recycle
Cell
Module
Cell Material Other Uses
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Baolong, Shenzhen Capacity:15MW/30MWH Area:1800 ㎡ Working Condition:3 cycle/day 0.5C Operating time:1700+cycles SOC range: 10%-100%
Changsha Plant Capacity: 10MW/22.6MWH
Area: 2500 ㎡ Working Condition: 2 cycle/day 0.3C
Under Construction
Repurpose - Energy Storage (Utility Scale)
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Capacity: 48V/150Ah, Load: 70A
Capacity: 48V/600Ah Load: 60A
Repurpose - Communication Base Station
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AGV (Automatic Guided Vehicle) Capacity:12V/150Ah ;24V/150Ah
Repurpose - AGV
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Battery disassembling automatically Separation of battery components Positive &negative plate drying & deodorization.
Graphite elution, copper foil recycling. The positive material desorption, aluminum foil recycling
Graphite removing impurity, cladding, regeneration and activation Lithium iron phosphate regeneration: lithium extraction, precursor preparation NMC elements extraction and regeneration
Raw Material Recycling
Battery disassembling take 3 steps
1.Disassembling
3.Regeneration
2. Material Recycling
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Raw Material Recycling
Manganese
Nickel Aluminum
Copper Lithium
95%
95%
95%
95%
85%
Cobalt Graphite
95%
98%
Raw Material Recycling
Manganese Nickel Aluminum Copper Lithium
95%
95%
95%
95%
85%
Cobalt Graphite
95%
98%
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Gap in the Future
cobalt new supply
Cobalt supply from recycling used batteries
Notes:
1.supposed battery Recycling volume equal battery used volume that year
2. supposed 24 kwh battery contains 10 kg cobalt
3. supposed 24kwh battery equal 0.29 tonnes
4. supposed cobalt recycling rate is 95%
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Technology
Upgrading on NMC
Strong Tech.
Backup-LFP
Repurpose&
Recycling
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Chinese Government Subsidy Policy
Source: VehicleTrend
Item 2017 China national subsidy standards
2018 China national subsidy
standards Change Remark
Recharge Mileage
100≤R
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One Week Drive without Additional Charge Zero Range Anxiety for 400KM
80km /day *5 days=400 km is enough for daily driving
Driving Demand
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BYD EV Recharge Mileage
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LFP vs NCM
WE WHAT CAN
DO MORE ON LFP?
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BYD Commercial Vehicle
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BYD Skyrail
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BYD Energy Storage
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THANK YOU
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