sustainable developmentsustainable development …tar sands . . . ) uranium and thorium (fission...
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT & ENERGY OPTIONS
Dean E Abrahamson ©Dean E. Abrahamson ©
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 1
Cartoon used with permission
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The SpeakerT pMy name is Dean Abrahamson; I retired as professorof energy & environmental policy from the Universityof energy & environmental policy from the Universityof Minnesota in 1998. My first professional job, afterphysics graduate school, was as a reactor physicist. Ithen spent a few years as senior research scientist atHoneywell before going to medical school. My firsttenured appointment was in the Univ of MinnesotaSchool of Medicine. One thing led to another, alongthe way I read some biology and economics, and Ithe way I read some biology and economics, and Iended up at what is now the Humphrey Institute ofPublic Affairs where I focused on energy policy andfor about ten years worked on climatic change &wrote a couple of books I’ve taught energy policywrote a couple of books. I’ve taught energy policysince the early 1970s. I’ve been a Trustee of the NRDCsince 1972.
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 2
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OUTLINEOUTLINE• The context: Growth v. sustainable development• Major issues: Middle-East oil nuclear power global warming• Major issues: Middle-East oil, nuclear power, global warming• Current energy supply• Energy options
Reduce demand for energy– Reduce demand for energy– Increase energy supply
• Solar, windpower & other renewables • Natural gas• Natural gas• Oil• Coal• Nuclear powerNuclear power
• Global warming & climatic change• Summary
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ClimateChange
Ozone depletionChange
Atmospheric Aerosol LoadingPlanetary
Biogeochemical loading: Global
N & P Cycles
Loading
BoundariesOcean acidificationOne of the laws of ecology is
Everything is connected to
Global Freshwater
Rate of Biodiversity
Everything else.
Freshwater UseLoss
Land S t Chemical System Change Pollution
Dean Abrahamson: 30 Aug 10 Nuclear Energy 4
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Up 300% in my lifetime
Increased 4 X since 1960;
75% increase last 25 yearslast 25 years
Have nearly run out of places to
build dams
1960-1969 $37bn2000-2007 $208bn
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 5
J.G. Speth (2004) Red Sky at Morning: America and the crisis of the global environment, Yale Univ. Press
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80 countries with 40% of world
population have serious shortages
Biologically active Nitrogen from
fertilizers exceeds natural rateserious shortages natural rate
Up 90% in last 25 years
Up 45% in last 25 years
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 6
J.G. Speth (2004) Red Sky at Morning: America and the crisis of the global environment, Yale Univ. Press
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Highest in >400,000 years
Holes in stratospheric ozone
over both poles
Unless vigorous action is taken soon, committed to a ~4°F
Frequency of extreme weather events increasingcommitted to a 4 F
global heatingevents increasing
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 7J.G. Speth (2004) Red Sky at Morning: America and the crisis of the global environment, Yale Univ. Press
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75% of fisheries fished to capacity
or overfished
~150 dead zones in oceans the 2nd
largest at the mouth of theor overfished mouth of the
Mississippi River
Rate of species extinction now 100-1,000 times normal
At least a third of world forests and half of wetlands have been
d t ddestroyed
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 8
J.G. Speth (2004) Red Sky at Morning: America and the crisis of the global environment, Yale Univ. Press
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Business-as-usual is not sustainableBusiness as usual is not sustainable Major changes are necessary, not the least with
our energy system
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AMONG THE MAJORAMONG THE MAJOR ENERGY-RELATEDENERGY RELATED
SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES
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Increasing scarcity of conventional oil and g yincreasing dependence on oil from the
Middle East. This is resulting in:
• Massive military spending and wars
• Use of non-conventional oil, primarily Tar Sands , p ywhich are the dirtiest of all fuels.
• Conversion of food to fuels
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There is a new, and major, push to build new nuclear power plants even though
• New nuclear power is the most expensive non-b icarbon energy option
and
• There are massive external costs• There are massive external costs.– Waste isolation
– Accidents
– Risk of proliferation of nuclear weapons
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The need to greatly reduce carbon dioxide pollution to limit climatic change. [And similar
reductions in the other majorreductions in the other majorgreenhouse gases.]
This requires reducing fossil fuel (coal oil naturalThis requires reducing fossil fuel (coal, oil, natural gas) consumption by 60-80% by mid-century and
shifting to energy sources that have little or no net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) if we are to
avoid catastrophic climatic chang.
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CURRENT ENERGY SUPPLYCURRENT ENERGY SUPPLY
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Primary & Secondary Energyy y gyPrimary energy is as found in nature
Solar
G th lGeothermal
Tidal
Hydrocarbons (Natural gas, Oil, Coal, Oil shale, Tar sands . . . )
Uranium and thorium (Fission fuels)
Secondary energy, or energy carrier, is the form delivered to the user
Electricityy
Hydrogen
Petroleum & natural gas products
HeatHeat
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Solar EnergySolar EnergySolar energy usually refers to all systems
driven by the flux of solar energy• Hydropower
d• Wind
• Photovoltaics
• Direct heating• Direct heating
• Biofuels
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Renewable Energy Supplygy pp y• Solar
• Geothermal
• TidalTidal
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Fossil Fuels: >80% Global Primary Energy500
Renewable
F il F l
300
400
y (E
J)
G
NuclearMicrochip
Commercial Nucleari ti
Fossil Fuels >80% of primary energy
200
300
mar
y En
ergy
Oil
Gas
TelevisionV
energyaviationgy
and
~80% of
100
Prim
Steam motor
Gasolinetube
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
Coal
~80% of greenhouse
gases
01850 1900 1950 2000
Biomass
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Renewables: ~19% Primary Energy500
Renewable
y gyWind, solar
& geothermal
300
400
y (E
J)
G
NuclearMicrochip
Commercial Nucleari ti
geothermal
Plus
Biomass
200
300
mar
y En
ergy
Oil
Gas
TelevisionV
energyaviation Biomass Supply
about 19% of global primary
100
Prim
Steam motor
Gasolinetube
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
Coal
primary energy
01850 1900 1950 2000
Biomass
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Nuclear 5½ % Primary Energy500
Renewable
y gy
300
400
y (E
J)
G
NuclearMicrochip
Commercial Nucleari ti
Nuclear (2008) 5.5%
200
300
mar
y En
ergy
Oil
Gas
TelevisionV
energyaviation
100
Prim
Steam motor
Gasolinetube
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
Coal
01850 1900 1950 2000
Biomass
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Energy OptionsEnergy Options1. REDUCE CONSUMPTION by means that reduce
energy use without decreasing energy services, i.e., increase the efficiency with which primary energy is converted to energy services, or by changing our gy , y g gconsumption patterns.
2. INCREASE SUPPLYbloRenewables
oNatural GasoCoaloCoaloOiloNuclear PoweroNuclear Power
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REDUCING ENERGY USE WITH NO LOSS OF ENERGY SERVICES
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The Total Cost of Increasing Efficiency
A 2010 analysis by David B. Goldstein, one of the recognized world experts in energy efficiency concluded thatworld experts in energy efficiency, concluded that
Now approaching $10,000
David B. Goldstein (2010) Invisible Energy, Bay Tree Publishing, CA, p. 158
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An ExamplepBuildingsg
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Buildings Use 25-40% of Energy Demand
Buildings are one of the largest end users of energy;
th b ildi t t f 25 40% f ththe building sector accounts for 25-40% of the
final energy demand in
OECD countriesOECD countries.
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Conventional IncandescentIncandescent
Halogen
Compact Fluorescent CF
Light-Emitting Diode LED: 80%
Less than conventional bulbconventional bulb
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Passive Buildings 250
a] - 90%
ENERGY USE PER SQ. METER CONVENTIONAL ---> PASSIVE g
100
150
200
vá e
nerg
ie [
kWh/
m2 a 90%
0
50
Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům
celk
ov
Conv. Passive
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Reconstruction according to the passive house
i i lBefore reconstruction
principle
-90%15 kWh/(m²-year)over 150 kWh/(m²-year)
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
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Remember that almost none of us care about
energy, we care about energy services—gy, gy
heating, cooling, lighting, transportation . . .
There is a huge potential to reduce energy
use with no loss of energy services while at gy
the same time saving money for those of us
h t th billwho must pay the energy bill.
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INCREASE ENERGY SUPPLYINCREASE ENERGY SUPPLY
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Energy ResourcesTW = 1012 Watts = 1 Trillion WattsTW = 10 Watts = 1 Trillion Watts
Present global commercial energy use = 15 TW-yr/yrRENEWABLES: ENERGY FLOWSRENEWABLES: ENERGY FLOWS
Solar Huge: 173,000 x 1012 Watt (TW)Geothermal Small: ~40 TW
Tidal Tiny: ~4 TW
MINERAL ENERGY RESOURCE
Coal Tar Sand Oil Shale HugeCoal, Tar Sand, Oil Shale Huge
Natural Gas Large: Global production peak in a couple of decades
Conventional Oil Global production now peaking
NUCLEAR FUEL RESOURCE
Uranium No scarcity foreseen
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RENEWABLES
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Renewables ~19% Global Final Energy Consumptiongy pIn 2008 – and Growing Rapidly
Source: REN2I 2010Source: REN2I_2010
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Windpower Growing at More than 20%/yearWindpower Growing at More than 20%/year
U.S. – Global Is Similar & Higher Than 20% in Many Countries
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Solar PV Growing at More than 20%/yearSolar PV Growing at More than 20%/year
GLOBAL
http://www.ren21.net/globalstatusreport/REN21_GSR_2010_full.pdf
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GLOBAL
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NATURAL GASNATURAL GAS
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U S Natural Gas UseU.S. Natural Gas Use
Electric Power29% and Growing
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N t l G P ll t S ll th f O l C lNatural Gas Pollution is Smaller than from Oil or Coal, but Not Zero
• Less than half as much greenhouse gas pollution as coal or and about 1/3rd as much as from tar sands oil
• No toxic heavy metals
• Relatively low, but far from zero, land-use impact
P d ti f ti l t l f h l• Production of non-conventional natural gas from shale deposits raises serious environmental issues.
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OILOIL36% of global energy>40% of U.S. energy
Th U S h b t 2% f l b l ilThe U.S. has about 2% of global oil reserves and consumes about 23% of
the world’s oil productionthe world s oil production.
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U.S. Oil Production Peaked in December 1970U.S. Oi Pr duc i n P ak d in D c mb r 1970
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Conventional Oil Production Has Peaked in Most N OPEC C t iNon-OPEC Countries
U.S.A.
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Global Conventional Oil Production Has Peaked or Will S P k W ’ll K i A C l f YWill Soon Peak. We ll Know in A Couple of Years
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 44
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60+% of the Remaining Conventional Oil Is in the M ddl E P l F CMiddle East Primarily in Five Countries
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 45
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THE MIDDLE-EAST OIL “SWING COUNTRIES”
KUWAIT
UAE
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 46
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NEIGHBORS THAT ARE MUCH IN THE NEWS
ISRAEL AFGHANISTAN
KUWAIT PAKISTAN
UAE
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SYRIA Nuclear
NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE REGIONIntentions
Unclear
ISRAEL AFGHANISTAN
KUWAIT PAKISTANIN
PROGRESS
UAE
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 48
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U S IMPORTS: 60+% OF OIL CONSUMPTIONU.S. IMPORTS: 60 % OF OIL CONSUMPTION
OPEC ~43% of U.S. Imports
= Middle East
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 49
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U S Oil UseU.S. Oil Use
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For the record, the U.S. military is the largest single consumer of oil in the world, burning 16.8 million gallons
dper day.
Lehrer (2010), p. 81
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M C f U S O l P lMajor Components of U.S. Oil Policy
• Token auto efficiency standards
• Mandate conversion of corn to ethanol
• Increase imports of Alberta Tar Sands non-conventional oil
• Make war to protect access to Middle East oil
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U.S. Auto “Efficiency” About half that of the E U d JE.U. and Japan
U.S. Proposed
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Nearly 30% of U.S. Corn Goes to Ethanol Productiony f G
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Corn Ethanol SUVCorn Ethanol SUVFeed a Person for a Year or Fill Up an SUV?
“While politicians and Big Agriculture insist on casting the need for ethanol in terms of national security, the larger
issue is a moral one: are we going to use our precious farmland to grow food, or use it to make motor fuel?”
http://www.alternet.org/environment/48790
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CANADIAN TAR SANDS
By far the largest North American oil resource is
Canadian tar sands.
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The Alberta tar sands system is the world’s ylargest industrial program
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The Alberta tar sands program has been called the most destructive program on earth.
• Non-conventional oil from tar sands produce more greenhouse gas pollution than any other fuel used in the U.S.
• Massive land use disturbance.
• Massive water use and water pollution
• Major impact on native culture
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 58
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Primary U.S. Middle East Oil Policyy y
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The True Cost of OilThe True Cost of OilCrude oil now costs ~$70/Bbl (per barrel) $1.67/gallon [1 Barrel Oil = 42 gallons]The cost of gasoline at the pump, in the U.S., is about $3/galMilitary cost protecting access to Middle y p gEast oil; estimated at $7.41/galTotal economic costs are estimated at $480/bbl ~$11/gal)/ /g )Plus direct subsidiesPlus environmental costPlus health costsPlus health costsAnd more
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/oil-gas-crude/461
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U.S Direct Federal Tax Subsidies to Oil CompaniesU.S D r F ra Tax Subs s O C mpan sFederal tax breaks that directly benefit oil companies
i l d h P D l i All (include: the Percentage Depletion Allowance (a subsidy of $784 million to $1 billion per year), the Nonconventional Fuel Production Credit ($769 to o co e t o a ue oduct o C ed t ($ 69 to
$900 million), immediate expensing of exploration and development costs ($200 to $255 million), the
E h d Oil R C dit ($26 3 t $100 illi )Enhanced Oil Recovery Credit ($26.3 to $100 million), foreign tax credits ($1.11 to $3.4 billion), foreign
income deferrals ($183 to $318 million), and ($ $ ),accelerated depreciation allowances ($1.0 to $4.5
billion)
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 61
http://www.progress.org/2003/energy22.htm
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And, there are problems like the BP oil blowout in th G lf f M i th t t i l i t lthe Gulf of Mexico – the greatest single environmental
disaster in U.S. history
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COALCOAL
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The U.S. Has the World’s Largest C l RCoal Resource
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The U.S. Consumes Nearly 20% of Global Coal ProductionTh U.S. C nsum s N ar y 20% f G ba C a Pr duc i n
COAL CONSUMPTION
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Coal is Used to Produce about 70% of Global ElectricityC a is Us d Pr duc ab u 70% f G ba E c rici y
COAL CONSUMPTION COAL USECOAL USE
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 66
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Coal Produces 45% of U.S. ElectricityCoal Produces 45% of U.S. Electricity
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Coal Comes From Strip Mines in e.g.,WyomingCoal Comes From Strip Mines in e.g.,Wyoming
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 68
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Coal is Extracted by Mountain Top Removal y pThroughout Appalachia
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Coal is Hauled by Unit Trains100 1 0 C /t i 10 000 t 15 000 t l/t i100-120 Cars/train: 10,000 to 15,000 tons coal/trainA large power plant uses 1-3 trains of coal per day
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CO2 From Electricity ProductionCO2 From Electricity ProductionCoal
Nat. Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
g CO2/kWh
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson 71
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COAL SUMMARYCOAL SUMMARY• Huge Resourceg
• Very High Greenhouse Gas Pollution
• Very High pollution from toxic heavyVery High pollution from toxic heavy metals, e.g., mercury
• Very High small particle pollution (Particulates cause the most important health effects from air pollution)
h d l d• Very High Land-Use Impacts Including Mountain Top Removal
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EXPANDING NUCLEAR POWEREXPANDING NUCLEAR POWER
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A NUCLEAR POWER REACTOR PRODUCES
Electricity
Waste heat
Radioactive waste
Plutonium
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NUCLEAR PRODUCES ABOUT 5½ % OF GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY AND ABOUT 14% OF ELECTRICITYENERGY AND ABOUT 14% OF ELECTRICITY
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It had been recognized from the dawn of the atomic age that nuclear power brings with it three
i tiimperatives
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IThe safeguards problem.
To safeguard potential nuclear explosives, both uranium-235 and the plutonium created as an inevitable by-
d t f th fi iproduct of the fission process.
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IIThe safety problem.
To prevent accidents that could release radioactivity beyond the plant boundaries.
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IIIThe waste problem.
To isolate the radioactive wastes from the biosphere for at least
200,000 years.
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FORECASTS FOR NEW NUCLEAR POWER
There are about as many forecasts for future nuclear power as there are forecasters.
Forecasts range from no nuclear power by mid-century to thousands of plants.
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NUCLEAR POWER COSTSNUCLEAR POWER COSTSAs with oil, it is very difficult to establish the total cost of nuclear power This is so becausetotal cost of nuclear power. This is so because the largest costs have been externalized, that is, removed from the market place by government action.government action.
External costs are not paid by the firm involved with the activity, e.g., electricity utility or by the user of the electricity but are paid by society atuser of the electricity, but are paid by society at large.
The internalized cost of new plants is increasing steadily. (Internalized costs are those that appear on the books of the firm conducting the activity.)
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Nuclear Reactor Investment Costs Have Shown N ti “E i f S l ”Negative Economies of Scale
10000US average
W
France best guess
5000
2008
$/kW
1983
1996
3000
4000
1980
1980
19952000
US: Koomey&Hultman 2007 France: Grubler 2009
10001 10 100
cum GW installed1977
1985
1975CUMULATIVE NUCLEAR INSTALLED: GW
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson82
US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 20091977
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10000US average
France best guess
/kW
France best guess
19965000
4000The cost of a new
i b
2008
$/
1980
1983
3000
4000 reactor is now about $10 billion.
1000
1980
1985
19952000
US: Koomey&Hultman 2007 France: Grubler 2009
10001 10 100
cum GW installed1977
1975CUMULATIVE NUCLEAR INSTALLED: GW
Coffman Lecture 2010 Dean Abrahamson83
US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009
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New Nuclear Power
Only a few of the new reactors are in countries
that choose nuclear capacity through free
market processes. Some of these countries may beof these countries may be
using civilian nuclear power as a cover for a
nuclear weapons
http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100623/full/465990a.html
Western Democraciesprogram.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf17.html
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New U S Nuclear PowerNew U.S. Nuclear Power• Following recent U.S. legislation which authorized massive
federal subsidies, there were 18 applications for 27 new nuclear power plants from U.S. utilities & merchant power companies.companies.
• In no case has a builder made a firm decision to go forward.
• The number is dwindling month by month
• Most recently, in October 2010, Consolidated Energy cancelled the proposed $10 billion Calvert Cliffs #3 unit in Maryland [This caused waves throughout the global nuclearMaryland. [This caused waves throughout the global nuclear industry as it may mean no new U.S. reactors in the foreseeable future] http://nuclear-news.net/2010/10/12/no-saving-prospects-for-nuclear-
industry-on-the-cliff-edge/
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NUKESPEAKNUKESPEAKThe history of nuclear development has been profoundly shaped by the manipulation of information... and the use of information-management techniques. For example:
Accidents are now referred to as incidents or operational problemsReactor licensing applications used to include Hazard Analyses. These morphed into Safety AnalysesExplosions have been called Prompt Disassembly Eventsp p ySo it goes. There are Nukespeak dictionaries
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dus-stripbooks-tree&field-keywords=nukespeak&x=0&y=0
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NUCLEAR POWER EXTERNAL COSTSEXTERNAL COSTS
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WASTE ISOLATIONThe highly radioactive nuclear waste must be kept out of the
biosphere for on order 200,000 years.
Nuclear power is the only energy technology where the waste is so dangerous that the government has to assume responsibility
for disposal of the waste.
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LIABILITY FOR MAJOR ACCIDENTS
Nuclear power is the only energy technology where the government has to assume the liability forgovernment has to assume the liability for
catastrophic accidents.
The U S mechanism is the Price Anderson Nuclear Industries Indemnity ActThe U.S. mechanism is the Price-Anderson Nuclear Industries Indemnity Act.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price-Anderson_Nuclear_Industries_Indemnity_Act
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REGULATORY AND SECURITYG
Nuclear power is unique among energy supply options in p q g gy pp y pthat it requires large regulatory costs and large security
costs at individual plants.
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SAFEGUARDSl h l h l hNuclear Power is the only existing energy technology that
requires an international safeguards regime to prevent countries from making nuclear weapons using g p g
“civilian” nuclear fuel cycle facilities and materials
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Nuclear Terrorism Now Judged to be “S l B Th ”“Single Biggest Threat”
President Obama 11 April 2010: “The central focus of this nuclear summit is the fact that the single biggest threat to U.S. security—both short term, medium term and long term—would be the possibility of a
b l ”terrorist organization obtaining a nuclear weapon.”http://www.president-obama.org/obama-officials-stress-nuclear-threat-u-s-strength
New York Times reported: The Obama administration’s classified review ofNew York Times reported: The Obama administration s classified review of nuclear weapons policy will for the first time make thwarting nuclear-armed
terrorists a central aim of American strategic nuclear planning
http://nuclear-news.net/2010/01/13/obama-recognising-nuclear-terrorism-as-the-greatest-risk
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There is a very very thin line between a civilianThere is a very, very thin line between a civilian nuclear power system and a military weapons
systemsystem.
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A Curious ThingA Curious ThingIt has always seemed curious that so-called “small-
government” conservatives are among the most
vigorous advocates for nuclear power, although
nuclear power absolutely requires
governmental control.
It began as, and continues to be,
h l f h Sa technology of the State.
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Climatic Changeg
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GLOBAL GREENHOUSE WARMING
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U.S. National Academy of Sciences U d N d d Cl Ch AUnderscores Needed Climatic Change Actions
May 2010
U.S. National Academy of Scienceshttp://americasclimatechoices.org/
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U.S. National Academy of Sciences U d N d d Cli ti Ch A tiUnderscores Needed Climatic Change Actions
May 2010"Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems.“
“Substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require prompt and sustained efforts to promote major technological and behavioral changes.”
“The U.S. should act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop a national strategy to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change.”gy p p g
U.S. National Academy of Scienceshttp://americasclimatechoices.org/
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U.S. National Academy of Sciences U d N d d Cli ti Ch A tiUnderscores Needed Climatic Change Actions
May 2010"Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems.“
“Substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require prompt and sustained efforts to promote major technological and behavioral changes.”
“The U.S. should act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop a national strategy to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change.”gy p p g
U.S. National Academy of Scienceshttp://americasclimatechoices.org/
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U.S. National Academy of Sciences U d N d d Cli ti Ch A tiUnderscores Needed Climatic Change Actions
May 2010"Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems.“
“Substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require prompt and sustained efforts to promote major technological and behavioral changes.”
“The U.S. should act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop a national strategy to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change.”gy p p g
U.S. National Academy of Scienceshttp://americasclimatechoices.org/
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The Main Greenhouse GasesHuman Activity
SourcesCO2 is the big
one, three times as much global heating as methane & N2O together
A group of industrial chemicals thatchemicals that
together produce about the same global
heating as does methane
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GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYFossil Fuels Produce ~80% of Carbon Dioxide Pollution
~20%
The 3rd largest anthropogenic source is
cement production about
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4% of CO2 pollution
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Carbon Dioxide (CO2 )Causes Over Half of Global WarmingOver Half of Global Warming
viti
es
Al ll d ll
Hum
an A
cti
Also called small particles or particulates
Nat
ural
Total Net Human Activities1.6+ Watts per meter2 of earth
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surface
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Global Temperature & Atmospheric Carbon DioxideG ba T mp ra ur & A m sph ric Carb n Di xid
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Global annual average surface temperature increased by 0 74 ± 0 18 °C (1 33 ± 0 32 °F)increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 C (1.33 ± 0.32 F)
during the 20th century
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Of 1 218 weather stations in the contiguous United States withOf 1,218 weather stations in the contiguous United States, with data going back to 1895, 153 locations recorded their hottest summer on record in 2010 and nearly one in three stations
d d t t th irecorded average temperatures among their five hottest on record.
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2010
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2010
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See the Following for A Sample ofWh t Gl b l W i f Ab t 1 3°F L k LikWhat Global Warming of About 1.3°F Looks Like
// /http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG41xDxrzI8
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How Much Warming is Legally (By International g g y yTreaty) Considered to Be Dangerous?
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeThe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), been ratified by 187 nations, commits signatories'
governments to reduce atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases with the goal of
"preventing dangerous anthropogenic [human activity] interference with Earth's
At the 2009 Copenhagen meeting of the parties to the UNFCCC
[human activity] interference with Earth s climate system.“
At the 2009 Copenhagen meeting of the parties to the UNFCCC it was agreed that this will require keeping greenhouse
warming to less than 2oC (3.8oF).
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To Avoid Devastating Climatic ChangeTo Avoid Devastating Climatic ChangeIt is likely that keeping global warming to less than 2°C (3.8°F) y p g g g ( )requires reducing the concentration of atmospheric carbon
dioxide to about 350 parts-per-million (ppm)
This requires reducing carbon emissions from human activities by 60% to 80% by mid-century. [The later we start, the more
emissions must be reduced.]
This means shifting to energy sources and systems that result g gy yin essentially zero carbon dioxide emissions.
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Global Emission Pathways to An AverageA l Gl b l W i f 2° CAnnual Global Warming of 2° C
Source: (WBGU 2009)
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Global Emission Pathways to An AverageA l Gl b l W i f 2° CAnnual Global Warming of 2° C
Because CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a very long, the total global heating depends on
cumulative emissions, not of annual emissions.
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The Powerful U S Coal Lobby and Reactionary "Conservatives”The Powerful U.S. Coal Lobby and Reactionary Conservatives Continue to Block Attempts to Limit
Carbon Emissions in the U SCarbon Emissions in the U.S.
See the excellent report, “As the World Burns”, in the p , ,11 October 2010 issue of The New Yorker.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/10/11/101011fa_fact_lizza
European countries and China have imposed carbon taxes th i l tor the equivalent
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ThThe Choices
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J h H ld S i dJohn Holdren SummarizedHoldren is Now President Obama’s Science Advisor
John P. Holdren, “Energy in Transition,” Scientific American (September 1990)
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Components of U.S. Energy Policy• Mandate conversion of corn to ethanol
• Increase imports of Alberta Tar Sands oil
• Make war to protect access to Middle East oil
• Token support for conservation and efficiency
• Insipid federal support for R&D on sustainable energy
• Much talk, but little meaningful action on climatic change
• Failure to set a price on greenhouse gas pollution• Failure to set a price on greenhouse gas pollution
• Huge subsidies for nuclear power being offered, but even with these, the price and risks have been too high for utilities to swallow.
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The Overreaching Goal of U S E P lU.S. Energy Policy
Keep energy prices as low as possible,
mollify every conventional energy lobbymollify every conventional energy lobby
and damn-the-consequences!
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Energy Is the Ultimate ResourceEnergy Is the Ultimate Resourceandand
The Ultimate Pollutant
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We Must All Do Much More ThanWe Must All Do Much More ThanBusiness-As-Usual With It’s Very
Sl I t l ChSlow Incremental Change
APPROPRIATE POLICIES ARE SUGGESTED IN
James Gustave Speth (2008) The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism the Environment and Crossing from Crisis toCapitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to
Sustainability, Yale University Press
David B. Goldstein (2009) Invisible Energy: Strategies to Rescue the Economy and Save the Planet, Bay Tree Press
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