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SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN TRANSPORTTECHNOLOGY AND POLICY

Picture: Agroetanol AB

Dr. Nils-Olof Nylund

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OUTLINE

Transport related environmental issuesSufficiency of oil resourcesWorld vehicle fleet and usage of transportation fuelsAlternative fuels and drivetrains

– options– performance– outlook– policies

Conclusions

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Source: Ben Knight, Honda, 2004

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DEFINITIONS

A local environmental problem

”A problem that threatens your health and well-being already today”

A global environmental problem

”A problems that threatens your existence in the future”

Photo: Markku Ikonen (Tanzania 1991)

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EMISSION TRENDS IN TRANSPORTATION

Source: Wiederkehr/OECD 2004

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TECHNOLOGY CAN ELIMINATE TOXIC EMISSIONS!

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ARE WE RUNNING OUT OF OIL?

Source: IEA WEO October 2004

Source: WTRG April 2006

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Source: Paul Wuebben, SCAQMD, 2005

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WORLD VEHICLE FLEET

Total number of vehicles approximately 800 millions– EU 25 226 millions– USA 215 millions– Japan 73 millions– Russia 26 millions– China 16 millions

(OECD 2003, Statistical Pocketbook 2004)

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WORLD PRODUCTION OF LIQUID BIOFUELS

World road fuel usage ~ 1 400 Mtoe/a- alternative fuels from biomass and other sources ~ 0.5 % ~ 50 Mtoe

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Source: Charles E. Wyman et al 2005

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BIOFUEL PRODUCTION IN EU

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2 500

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EthanolBiodiesel

Biodiesel tonne ~ 0.9 toeEthanol tonne ~ 0.64 toe

Rapid growth, but relative share still below 1 %!Sources: EurObservER, System Solaires 2005, European Biodiesel Board

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REQUIREMENTS FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS

Definitions by the Swedish Road Administration

Alternative fuels have to be compatible with the environment and the future

– high system efficiency– global feedstock supply– applicable to future powertrains– significant reduction of CO2 emissions– low toxic emissions– moderate costs, benefits have to be higher than the

costs increase (long term perspective)

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FUEL ALTERNATIVES

Ethanol– used as a gasoline component (EtOH tai ETBE)– up to 85 % concentration possible in Fuel Flexible

Vehicles (FFVs)– European grain based ethanol is expensive– the goal is set on production of ethanol from

cellulosic feedstocks

Biodiesel– used as a fuel component or even as such– mostly esterified vegetable oil (rape, soy, palm oil)– virgin European biodiesel is expensive– also animal fats and waste oils can be used– Neste Oil will start production of 2nd generation

biodiesel in 2007

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FUEL ALTERNATIVES

Synthetic fuels– gas-to-liquids GTL, coal-to-liquids CTL, biomass-to-liquids BTL– mostly based on synthesis gas– steam reforming (natural gas) or gasification (coal, biomass)– main product high-quality paraffinic Fischer-Tropsch diesel– also methanol and DME possible products

Natural gas (methane)– significant gas resources– requires dedicated refuelling systems and vehicles– light-duty vehicles often gasoline/gas bi-fuel vehicles– possibility to reduce emissions

(CO2 emissions for gasoline vehicles and toxicemissions for diesel vehicles)

– biogas gives equal vehicle performance as natural gas

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METHANE REDUCES PARTICLE EMISSIONS

Natural gas

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FUEL ALTERNATIVES

LPG– a good substitute for gasoline– limited supply in many countries– no ”bio-option”

DME– a gaseous fuel for diesel engines– resembles LPG– limited production, would require a new refuelling

infrastructure and new vehicles

Hydrogen– no production of ”energy” hydrogen for the moment– what is the source of the primary energy?– fuel cell vehicles still in the early development stage– significant investment in FC and hydrogen research

in Europe, Japan and USA– commercialization by 2020?

Group ResearchPowertrain VOLKSWAGEN AG

Demands on Future Fuels

Diversification on the fuels side is economically unacceptable

ethanol methanolgasoline

hydrogendieselnatural gasLPG DME

biodiesel

Diversification on the primary energy side from crude oil to natural gas, coal and biomass

Blending relating to existing fuel specificationmethanol, ethanol, biodiesel

to blend into existing fuels Frank Seyfried 2005

Characterization of Synthetic Fuels

Conv. Biofuels

e.g.FAME*,

Bio Ethanol

1st Generation of Biofuels

* FAME: Fat Acid Methyl Ester

Synthetic Fuels

GTL(Gas to Liquid)

SynFuel

BTL(Biomass to Liquid)

2nd Generation of Advanced Biofuels

SunFuel

SunDiesel

Process

Group

Product

CTL(Coal to Liquid)

SynFuel

Frank Seyfried 2005

2031.1.2006

WELL-TO-WHEEL ENERGY USE AND GHGEMISSIONS FOR PASSENGER CARS

Concawe/JRC

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THE BIOFUEL DILEMMA

Conventional vehicles running on conventional fuels are approaching zero regulated emissions

No biofuels, except methane and hydrogen, willgive significant reductions in regulated emissions

Some biofuel options have a questionableGHG balance

Blending in classic biocomponents will not necessarily improve fuel quality

It is impossible to reach 5.75% fuel substitution with classic biocomponents if European EN 228 (gasoline) and EN 590(diesel) specifications are to be met

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

COHCNOx

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COHCNOx

100% = Level Before Standards

Sum of HC+NOx >

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HCNOx

WHITE PAPER ON TRANSPORT POLICY 2001

Information - Communication 8Directorate-General for Energy and Transport

Integrating transport intoIntegrating transport intosustainable developmentsustainable development

Why?Air quality and climate change

How?

Transport consumes energy: 28% of emissions of CO2, the maingreenhouse gas.If nothing is done: CO2 emissions up 50% between 1990 and 201084% of transport emissions generated by road transport.Security of supplyTransport is 98% dependent on oil, 70% of which is imported.

Tackling noise pollution

The Gothenburg European Council placed breaking the linkbetween economic growth and transport growth at theheart of the sustainable development strategy.

Issues discussed:economic significance of the transport sectorcongestion and safetytrans-European networkstransport mode shifts and intermodalityhigh quality urban transportsustainable transport systems andsustainable mobilityoil dependency

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GREEN PAPER ON EUROPEAN UNION ENERGY POLICY

Adopted in 2000

Calls for, e.g.:– 20% substitute fuels in 2020– development of clean vehicles

Alternative fuels in 2020– natural gas 10%– biofuels 8%– hydrogen 2% (5%)

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NEWEST GREEN PAPER: ENERGY EFFICIENCY 2005

Target: 20 % energy savings by 2020

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BIOFUELS DIRECTIVE 2003/30/EC

Draft Directive November 2001

Adopted on May 8th 2003

Member States should ensure that a minimum proportion of biofuels and other renewable fuels is placed on their markets, and, to that effect, shall set national indicative targets.

– originally mandatory targets were planned– progress will be reviewed in 2006

Reference values for these targets are (energy basis):– 2% by 31 December 2005– 5.75% by 31 December 2010

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ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES IN SWEDEN

Source: Lars Guldbrand 2005

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GERMAN NGV DEVELOPMENT

Source: IGU & ENGVA 2004/2005

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EU STRATEGY FOR BIOFUELS 8.2.2006 (1)

1) Stimulating demand for biofuels.A report will be published in 2006 on a possible revision of the

biofuels directive; Member States must be encouraged to favour biofuels (including second generation products), and consideration will be given to biofuel obligations; the Commission has brought forward a proposal to promote clean and efficient vehicles.

2) Capturing environmental benefits.The Commission will examine how biofuels can best contribute

to emission targets; work to ensure sustainability of biofuelfeedstock cultivation; and look again at limits on biofuelcontent in petrol and diesel.

3) Developing production and distribution of biofuels.The Commission will propose a specific group to consider

biofuels opportunities in rural development programmes; and increase monitoring to ensure no discrimination against biofuels.

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EU STRATEGY FOR BIOFUELS 8.2.2006 (2)

4) Extending supplies of feedstock.The Commission is making sugar production for bioethanol

eligible for CAP support schemes; it will assess possibilities to process cereal intervention stocks; finance an information campaign for farmers and forest owners; bring forward a forestry action plan; and look into the possibilities for using animal by-products and clean waste.

5) Enhancing trade opportunities.The Commission will assess the possibility of putting forward a

proposal for separate customs codes for biofuels; it will pursue a balanced approach in trade talks with ethanol-producing countries; and propose amendments to the “biodiesel standard”.

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EU STRATEGY FOR BIOFUELS 8.2.2006 (3)

6) Supporting developing countries.The Commission will ensure that measures for ACP Sugar

Protocol countries affected by the EU sugar reform can be used to support the development of bioethanol production; develop a coherent Biofuels Assistance Package for developing countries; and examine how best to assist national and regional biofuel platforms.

7) Research and development.The Commission will continue to support the development of

an industry-led ‘Biofuel Technology Platform’ which will make recommendations for research in this sector. Biofuels will have a high priority in the 7th Framework Programme, in particular the ‘bio-refinery’ concept - finding valuable uses for all parts of the plant – and second generation biofuels. Through research, production costs could be cut considerably beyond 2010. Through its Intelligent Energy Europe Programme, the Commission will support market introduction and the dissemination of proven technologies.

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BIOENERGY GOALS FOR USA

Source: Kaempf, DOE, 2005

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US ENERGY POLICY ACT AUGUST 2005

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LAND NEEDED FOR US ETHANOL PRODUCTION

Source: ExxonMobil 2004

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US FUEL OUTLOOK

Source: Matthew Brusstar 2005

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CONCLUSIONS

Technology will the solve the problem of toxic exhaust emissions

Reducing transport related CO2 emissions is a great challenge

We need to reduce the dependence on oil

We are closer to large-scale implementation of alternative motor fuels than ever

We need to develop cost and CO2 effective biofuel options– 1st generation European biofuels are not cost effective

We need also to concentrate on:– reduced transport work– improved vehicle efficiency– shifts in transport modes