sustainable energy systems
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SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS. Professor Roland Clift Centre for Environmental Strategy University of Surrey. 1.Global climate change 2.Sustainable development approach to national and international policy 3.Implications for the energy sector in the UK 4.The significance of air travel. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1. Global climate change2. Sustainable development approach to national and international policy3. Implications for the energy sector in the UK4. The significance of air travel
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS
Professor Roland CliftCentre for Environmental Strategy
University of Surrey
Ecology and (Macro-)Thermodynamics
Technology and(Micro-) Economics[Including "micro-"thermodynamics]
Social Expectations[Including macro-
economics]
Enviro-centricConcerns
Techno-centricConcerns
Socio-centricConcerns
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Infra-red (I.R.)
GREENHOUSEEFFECT
Ultra-violet (U.V.) STRATOSPHERICOZONE
DEPLETION
EARTH
RADIATION FROM SUN
Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere:
Pre-industrial period: 270-280 ppmv(but during glacial periods itwas much lower, down to 180 ppmw)
Present value: 370 ppmv and rising fast...
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
can be caused by change in absorptive properties of the atmosphere
effect is a global temperature risewhich leads to more localised effects
climate system is non-linear and dynamic, with positive feedbacks; therefore it is unpredictable.
CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES
Includes Retreat of glaciers? Increased frequency of “El Niño” events? Average temperatures Increased variability of climate
E.g. floods in Europe one summer;extraordinarily high temperatures the next(with many thousands of early deaths).
Unusually high hurricane activity, in both Atlantic and Pacific
Etc., etc.
EVIDENCE FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Predicted to include: Rise in sea level Hence widespread flooding and displacement of
people Cooling in some places, especially if ocean
circulation is affected Displacement of climate zones faster than
ecosystems can adapt: loss of habitat and hence extinctions
Increased desertification and water stress Etc., etc
THE “BASKET OF GASES” Greenhouse Warming Potential
20 years 100 years 500 years
Carbon dioxide 1 1 1 Methane 62 23 7 Nitrous oxide 275 296 156 HFCs: e.g. Tetra fluorothane 3300 1300 400 (R134a) Pentafluoroethane 5900 3400 1100 (R125) Trifluoromethane 9400 12000 10000 PFCs: e.g. Perfluoromethane 3900 5700 8900 Perfluoroethane 8000 11900 18000 Sulphur hexafluoride 15100 22200 32400
Typical uncertainty: +35%
Greenhouse gas
1997 emissions (‘000 tonnes)
Global warming Potential, relative To CO2
GWP equivalent - ‘000 t. CO2
CO2 567,719 1 567,700 CH4 2,727 23 62,700 N2O 192 296 56,800 HFCs1 3.07 12 – 12,000 19,000 PFCs2 0.095 5,700 – 11,900 1,000 SF6 0.053 22,200 1,180 1 Hydrofluorocarbon compounds. Average GWP equivalent shown. 2 Perfluorocarbon compounds. Average GWP equivalent shown.
UK EMISSIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING GASES (1997)
ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION 22ND REPORT:
“ENERGY - THE CHANGING CLIMATE” (2000)
“…the world is now faced with a radical challenge of a totally new kind which requires an urgent response…
By the time the effects of human activities on the global climate are clear and unambiguous it wouldbe too late to take preventive measures.”
Recommended ensuring that concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not exceed 550 ppmv, twice the pre-industrial level.
“… an effective, enduring and equitable climate protocol will eventually require emission quotasto be allocated to nations on a simple and equalper capita basis… nations’ emission quotas(should) follow a contraction and convergencetrajectory.”
“…UK carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced by almost 60% from their current level by mid-century.”
A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT APPROACH:
PER-CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS, 1996(Tonnes)
United States 20 Canada 14 Russia 11 Germany 10 United Kingdom 9 Japan 9 Mexico 4 India 1 World 4 Developed Countries 13 Developing Countries 2
“Contract & Converge” 3.6
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Three “legs” to the argument, corresponding tothe three components of sustainable development:
1. Enviro-centric: limit on carbon dioxideconcentration in the atmosphere;
2. Socio-centric: the “contract and converge”principle;
3. Techno-centric: the target is technologicallyand economically feasible.
Ecology and (Macro-)Thermodynamics
Technology and(Micro-) Economics[Including "micro-"thermodynamics]
Social Expectations[Including macro-
economics]
Enviro-centricConcerns
Techno-centricConcerns
Socio-centricConcerns
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Demand-side reductions:e.g. improved building performance;modal shifts in transport;lesser improvements in manufacturing.
- Would be encouraged by carbon levy… Supply-side changes:
- renewable energy sources;- electrical storage; grid stability;- carbon dioxide sequestration;- nuclear or fossil electrical generation;- different transport fuels and drives.
Estimated cost of 60% reduction in UK = 2% of GDP
IS THE 60% REDUCTION FEASIBLE?
UK CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM BURNING FOSSIL FUELS AMOUNTED TO 22 TONNES PER
HOUSEHOLD IN 1998
6.1
5.8
5.7
3.3
0.9 0.2
Transport
Domestic
Industry
Commerce
Other
Agriculture
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR, 2001
26%
31%
25%
18%Transport
Domestic
Industry
Services (includingagriculture)
Source: DUKES – Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DTI)
EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY CONVERSIONAlthough the first law of thermodynamics states that energy can be neither crated nor destroyed, different forms of energy are not simply interchangeable. Converting heat to work involves using some form of heat engine in which heat is supplied at a high temperature (T1) and leaves at a low temperature (T2). In the case of a steam cycle, T1
corresponds to the steam temperature entering the turbine and T2 to that of the water formed from steam in the condenser. The maximum fraction of the heat entering the heat engine that can be converted to work (i.e. electrical energy in this case) is
ηmax = 1 – (T2/ T1) = (T1– T2)/T1
Thus ηmax increases if T1 is increased. Real generating plants have conversion efficiency substantially below this thermodynamic limit.The fraction of the heat not converted to work (of electricity) leaves the engine as low-grade heat.
COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (CHP) PLANT, USING STEAM CYCLE FOR CO-GENERATION
Need to look at energy use in total, not just electricity. Biomass, agricultural waste, etc. need to be used to fire CHP plants primarily for heat output, with electrical output used to “back up” intermittent renewable sources. Needs a fundamental review of how electricity networks can best be financed, managed and regulated to stimulate and accommodate large contributions to energy supplies from CHP and renewable sources.
TECHNICAL ISSUES
CONCLUSION
For the UK, 60% reduction in CO2
emissions by 2050 is possible.The technology is (or soon will be) available.
But is the political will available…?
A FURTHER RCEP REPORT:
THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF CIVIL AIRCRAFT IN FLIGHT
November 2002
RCEP CONCLUSIONS 1
The analysis in the 1999 IPCC Report is sound.
Research since then has, if anything, revealed even greater uncertainty.
Total contribution of aircraft to radiative forcing is 2 to 4 times that of carbon dioxide emissions alone.
Best estimate of the multiplier is about 3.
RCEP CONCLUSIONS 2
Even the industry’s own most optimistic targets for technological advance will not
offset projected growth.
Short-haul flights (less than about 2000 km; i.e. 1000 nautical miles) are disproportionately damaging.
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
ye
ar
20
00
to
tal r
ad
iati
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fo
rcin
g Effects of growth on total radiative forcing
Annual growth of 4.25%
annual improvement of 0.5%
Effect of introduction of aircraft meeting ACARE targets
EFFECT OF STAGE LENGTH ON SPECIFIC ENERGY USAGE
(Babikian, Lukachko & Waitz, J.Air Transport Management, Nov.2002)
SOME BROAD COMPARISONS
In terms of contribution to radiative forcing:
Long-distance air travel is equivalent to 1-2 people travelling in a passenger car.
Per passenger-km, modern high-speed rail travel is at least an order of magnitude less damaging.
Per tonne-km, rail freight is one to two orders of magnitude less damaging that air freight.
Marine freight is a factor of 2 or more less damaging than rail freight.
AIR TRANSPORT IN CONTEXT 1
Contribution to global climate change of passenger flights within, to and from the UK:
% OF UKYEAR MILLIONTONNESCO2
EMISSIONS RADIATIVEFORCING*
2000 30 5 122020+ 55 10-12 23-26
* Based on “multiplier” of 2.7 for aircraft emissions+ Assuming “low” growth and significant technologicaladvance, with 8 to 14% reduction in other sources.SOURCE: “Aviation and the Environment: using economic instruments”, HM Treasury and department for Transport, March 2003.
AIR TRANSPORT AND ENERGY POLICY
Following the recommendations of the Royal Commission, the 2003 White Paper has confirmed the policy of achieving 60% reduction in UK carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
The projected growth in air travel would represent more than half the remaining 40%.
…??
RCEP CONCLUSIONS 3
Airport capacity should not be expanded unless/until the contribution to climate change is brought into an effective policy. Technological advances alone will not offset projected growth. Some form of demand management will be needed.
1. Executive summary2. Profile of the Company
- Strengths and Weaknesses- Size and structure of company- Business areas- Principal competitors- Company’s position in the sector(s) where it operates- Environmental performance and reporting
The report should contain the following components:
3. Business Environment – Opportunities and Threats
Legislative environment and likely changes
Impact of extended producer responsibility
Product liability Sustainability of supply chain Stakeholder perceptions and social
“licence to operate”.
The report should contain the following components:
4. Strategic Positioning Recommendations on:
Product development and discontinuation
Stakeholder engagement Sustainability reporting Etc….
The report should contain the following components: