sustainable future building a new world › atonra › public › ... · china 5mio ev by 2020, 20%...

1

Sustainable Future – Building A New World

ATONRÂ PARTNERS SA 7, rue de la Croix d’Or - 1204 GENEVA – SWITZERLAND - Tel: + 41 22 906 16 16 www.atonra.ch

February 2020

SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CERTIFICATE

Investment Case

➢ Climate change, a growing world population and an increasing world’s electrification have started to sparkmajor changes in our living habits and the adoption of sustainable behaviors

➢ Sustainable development is defined as “development that meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

➢ Our Sustainable Future theme will capture the growth (estimated above 20% on average) in all industriesbenefiting from the sustainable development of our planet

➢ We invest in pure players in renewable energies, energy storage, smart transportation, water & wastewatertreatment, the digitalization of energy systems and integration of smart technologies

Details

✓ Issuing bank: JP Morgan, Calculation agent: JP Morgan

✓ ISIN: XS1668108175 (USD), XS1668108506 (EUR)

✓ Currency: USD, EUR

✓ Fees: 1.5% management fee + 15% performance fee, high water mark

✓ Bloomberg tickers: JMLNARSF (USD), JMLNARSE (EUR)

2

…and it’s affecting our lives in many different ways

SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CERTIFICATE 3

Climate Change Is A Fact…

To Survive, Human Beings Are Reacting To That Change

Adaptation

Mitigation


&

Technology is the Answer!


Fossil Fuel Scarcity?

Growing Water Needs?

Increasing Electricty Demand?

Food Shortage?

Extreme Pollution?

Traffic Congestion?

Energy Storage

Algea Biofuel

Micro-Irrigation

Hydrogen Train

Hyperloop

Smart City

Water & Wastewater Treatment

Solar & Wind

Energy Storage

Smart Agriculture

Smart Transportation

Smart Grid

Smart Cities & Buildings

Energy Efficiency


Source: Marketresearch, Zion Market Research, Allied Market Research, Grand View Research, Transparency Market Research, Global Market Insights, Research and Markets, Hexa Research


A $3.6 Trillion Market By 2024

CAGR 2018-2024

Electric Vehicles ($464B)

Solar Energy ($633B)

Stationary Energy Storage ($10B)

Smart Transportation ($285B)

Smart Buildings ($62B)

Smart Agriculture ($21B)

38%

34%

23%

14%

22%

24%

Wind Energy ($170B) 13%

4.3%

AtonRâ Sustainable Future

7

Water Treatment ($664B) 4%

Li-Ion Batteries ($80B) 17%

Energy Efficient Devices ($1T) 22.3%12%

Drivers

Declining prices for Renewables and Storage

General environmental concerns

Rising Electricity demand

Depleting natural resources

Growing Population

Risks

Lower Fossil fuel prices

Fiscal Austerity

Unsupportive Regulation

Hydrogen ($206B) 6%

~1800 AD

Energy & History


➢ Our society has historically not been relying on fossil fuels

➢ The renewable energy transition is already on its way

8

Sustainable Energy EraEnergy Used is Clean and RenewableFossil Fuels Era

?

When? To end of humankindTo beginning of humankind

What shape will have that transition?

200 years

Question: How much of total world electricity consumed is produced by wind and Solar PV

combined?


A

B

C

D

7%

17%

27%

37%

Power Generation: A Clear Shift Towards Solar and Wind


2050

Coal

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Other

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0%

100%

90%

80%

70%

50%

40%

60%

30%

20%

10%

NEO 2018 power generation mixHistorical world power generation mix

& 48% solar and wind

64% renewables by 2050

29% fossil fuels by 2050

Power Generation Mix

Source: Bloomberg NEF; IEA

➢ If we continue to deploy PV panels at the same pace, PV power capacity will exceed today’s total power needs (incl. coal, gas, oil, etc.) within 10 years!

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

PV - Installed Capacity (MW)

Total Capacity (2017):

7’343’000 !


Solar Installations Taking Off

Source: IEA

The take-off is now!

CAGR18-29: 30%


Solar: Many Different Technologies And Applications

12


Solar: Innovation Sparks Cost And Yield Efficiencies

➢ Large variety of PV cells type: crystalline, multijunction, thin-film, organic, etc.

➢ Growing cell efficiencies for all types

➢ While efficiency grows, costs continue to decline

➢ Cumulative production x 2 → Price -24%

Solar Cell Efficiencies

Source: Fraunhofer ISE

Mimicking Moore’s Law

Solar cells into roof tiles

Solar cells into building’s facades

✓ Improved look compared to traditional solar panels

✓ Improved overall cost of roof + PV modules

✓ Maximize exploitation of solar energy on buildings

✓ Transparent cells perfectly integrates into architecture



✓ Inflexibility

✓ Infrastructural Problems

✓Network Congestion

✓ Lack Of Transparency

15

Electric Grid Needs A Major Upgrade

➢ The traditional grid is facing a multitude of challenges that can be outlined in the following categories:


By 2040, 11B smart appliances are expected to be deployed in the smart grid worldwide

16

Smart Grid: Flexibility, Efficiency, Reliability

Provide 185 GW of system flexibility and save $270B in electricity infrastructure.

A network of integrated microgrids

Sensors: detect disturbances and can signal for areas to be isolated

Processors: execute special

protection schemes in

microseconds

Smart appliances: can shut off in response to frequency

fluctuations

Demand management: use can be shift to off-peak

times to save money

Generators: energy from small generators and solar panels can reduce overall demand on the grid

Storage: energy generated at off-peak times could be stored in batteries for later use


Smart Grid: A Wide Array Of Technologies

Smart Appliances

Energy Management Systems

Phasor Measurement Units

Transmission Enhancement

Renewable Generation Integration

Distribution Grid Management

Advanced Metering Infrastructure


Country EV Policy Announcements

China 5mio EV by 2020, 20% EV sales by 2025

France 100% EV sales by 2040

United Kingdom 100% EV sales by 2040

India 100% EV sales by 2030

Thailand 1.2 mio EV stock by 2030

Poland 1 mio EV Stock by 2025

New York City 20% EV sales by 2025

➢ Electric Vehicle market is projected to benefit from a significant growth in the coming years (CAGR of 22.5%).

18

Smart Transportation: EVs In The Spotlight

EV batteries

Charging stations

Electricity supply

Electrical Grid

➢ Several industries will be affected:


Smart Transportation: EV Batteries Evolution

Trend➢ Reduction of Cobalt Content (~20% to ~6%)➢ Improvement of anode graphite structure

(addition of silicon) to improve charging rates➢ Development of gel-like electrolyte material

Objectives➢ Reduce cost➢ Increase energy density➢ Improve charging rates➢ Improve battery safety

Sources: IEA analysis based on Meeus (2018); Nationale Plattform Elektromobilitat (2016); NEDO (2018); Howell (2016); Pillot (2017).


EVs act as batteries with bidirectional flow of energy from and to the grid

✓ Peak load Leveling

✓ Emergency Backup

✓ Frequency Regulation

✓ Renewable Energy Storage

➢ At any instant, 95% of all cars are parked and unused

➢ Car batteries can be used to store electrical energy and give it back to the grid when needed

➢ V2G revenue can offset an average 10% of total cost of EV ownership

20

Smart Transportation: EVs To Turn Into Home Batteries

Source: Cenex


Smart Transportation: Shaking-up all Transport Modes

Shipping

➢ IMO 2020: Limit sulphur content in all marine fuels from 3.5% to 0.5% by 2020

➢ IMO 2050: Reduce GHG emissions by 50% by 2050 (2008 baseline)

Aviation

➢ CORSIA: Carbon-neutral growth from 2020➢ IATA: reach 1 billion passengers to fly on sustainable

biofuels by 2025

Rail

➢ Most efficient mode of transport: 9% of activity but only 1% of transport energy demand

➢ Rail technology breakthrough to facilitate transport shift from cars, trucks, and planes to train.


Energy Storage: A Major Challenge, A Major Opportunity


Question: What is the most widely used energy storage technology (in term of energy stored)?

A

B

C

D

Li-Ion Batteries

Pumped-Hydro

Compressed Air

Flywheels


Energy Storage: Pumped-Hydro Dominates The Game

➢ Representing over 95% of world storage capacity

Overall Cost

Lifespan

Discharge Time

Energy & Power Density


➢ Electric Vehicles to drive the Lithium-Ion battery demand

25

Energy Storage: Li-Ion On The Rise

➢ For each storage need, there will be a storage technology:


Sustain a critical load during grid outages Lowers demand during system peaks

Buy energy & store it in off-peak hours and consume/ sell it during peak hours

Stabilize frequency in real time

26

Energy Storage Unlocks Various Benefits

Resiliency/ Back-up Power Demand Response

Energy Arbitrage Frequency Regulation


Question: Which of the following sector is responsible for the majority of world’s water usage?

A

B

C

Agriculture

Industrial

Municipalities/ Households


70% !

Every year, about 100’000 km3 of water falls on earth… Only 10% of that can be used for agriculture, industry, and drinking

28

Water: A Commodity That Needs To Be Preserved

Source: focusingfuture.com


Water

Innovation

29

Water: New Technologies To Enhance Distribution And Treatment


Question: Which of the following requires more water to be produced?

A

B

C

D

1 kg of Rice

1 kg of Chocolate

1 kg of Beef

1 L of Biofuel


Water Footprint Beyond Expectations

17’000 Liters1 kg of Chocolate

15’000 Liters1 kg of Beef

2’500 Liters1 kg of Rice

2’500 Liters1 L of biofuel

Water management Livestock Monitoring

Drilling, Seeding and Spraying

Aerial Crop Monitoring

Fertigation


Smart Agriculture, Or How To Better Feed A Growing Population

✓ High precision positioning systems

✓ Sensors and remote sensing

✓ Integrated electronic communications

✓ Understand feeding and drinking habbits

✓ Help fend off disease or infections

✓ Protects Animals

Precision Farming

Livestock Monitoring


Smart Agriculture, Or How To Feed A Growing Population


COMPANY

SolarEdge Technologies INCNASDAQ:SEDGIPO: March 2015Market Cap: $2.15 B

Provider of Power Optimizers & Solar Inverters

MARKETModule Level Power Optimizer:$650M (2018) to $1.46B (2’24), CAGR: 15%

DRIVERS

Falling prices of PV Modules and Home Batteries → Fast Deployment

Every Panel needs an Inverter

Key component for various new applications (smart grid, EV, etc.)

STRENGHTS

Most efficient Inverter Technology

Only a few players on the residential segment

Diversifying its offer to capture other adjacent growth markets (Storage, Home EnergyManagement, e-Mobility)

Conclusion


Water & Wastewater Treatment

Solar & Wind

Energy Storage

Smart Agriculture Smart Transportation

Smart Grid

Smart Cities & BuildingsEnergy Efficiency

20-25% average growth

➢ The inflection point is now!

Grid parity

Technology breakthrough, just the beginning!

Renewables: now viable without subsidies → fossil fuel need subsidies to survive

World’s Electrification: data centers, EV, smart transportation, digitalization, etc.

Invest In The Future Of Our Planet


➢ A long term opportunity impacting every aspect of our life: energy, transportation, food, water, environment…

➢ Rather than passively endure climate change, be part of a more sustainable future

➢ Launching date: 22.10.2018

➢ ISIN: XS1668108175 (USD), XS1668108506 (EUR)

This report has been produced by the organizational unit responsible for investment research (Research unit) of

AtonRâ Partners and sent to you by the company sales representatives.

As an internationally active company, AtonRâ Partners SA may be subject to a number of provisions in drawing up

and distributing its investment research documents. These regulations include the Directives on the Independence

of Financial Research issued by the Swiss Bankers Association.

Although AtonRâ Partners SA believes that the information provided in this document is based on reliablesources, it cannot assume responsibility for the quality, correctness, timeliness or completeness of the informationcontained in this report.

The information contained in these publications is exclusively intended for a client base consisting of professionalsor qualified investors. It is sent to you by way of information and cannot be divulged to a third party without theprior consent of AtonRâ Partners.

While all reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the information contained is not untrue or misleading atthe time of publication, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be reliedupon as such.

Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results. Investment losses may occur, and investorscould lose some or all of their investment.

Any indices cited herein are provided only as examples of general market performance and no index is directlycomparable to the past or future performance of the Certificate.

It should not be assumed that the Certificate will invest in any specific securities that comprise any index, norshould it be understood to mean that there is a correlation between the Certificate’s returns and any index returns.

Any material provided to you is intended only for discussion purposes and is not intended as an offer orsolicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and should not be relied upon by you in evaluatingthe merits of investing in any securities.

37Disclaimer

sustainable future building a new world › atonra › public › ... · china 5mio ev by 2020, 20%...

Documents