1. Sustainably Feeding the World:The Next 40 Years
Shenggen FanDirector General
International Food Policy Research Institute
University of Minnesota, St. Paul, October 18, 2010

2. Key messages
Global food security is under stress
Business as unusual is urgently needed for enhancing food security
Agricultural science and technology, and policy research, are critical

3. PART I
Global food security is under stress

4. The goal of halving hunger is off-track
Number of hungry people, 1990-2015
946
584
Source: Based on data from FAO 2009; 2010 and authors calculations

5. 29 countries have alarming/extremely alarminglevels of hunger (2010 GHI)
GHI components:

• Proportion of undernourished
• 6. Prevalence of underweight in children
• 7. Under-five mortality rate

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2010

8. Food security vulnerable in short run
Russian wheat crisis
Flood in Pakistan
Riots in Mozambique
Food price inflation in India and China

9. Future stress factors in long run
Population growth
Land and water constraints
Climate change
Biofuels/Energy

10. Rapidly growing population and demographic change
World population reaches 9 billion by 2050
All growth to come from urban areas
Most growth to come from developing countries
Source: FAO 2009
Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food

11. Feeding a growing population
Production needs to almost double in developing countries
Source: Bruinsma 2009

12. Natural resource constraints are high
Projected water scarcity in 2025
Source: IWMI 2000

13. Climate change pressure on agriculture
Climate change impact on production: Rainfedmaize
(% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)
NCAR A2a
Global production = -16%
Source: M. Rosegrant 2009

14. Competition between agriculture and energy will persist
With biofuel expansion:
production of maize and sugarcane will be 5% and 1% higher by 2020
prices of maize and sugarcane will be 16% and 3% higher by 2020
Wired.com
Source: Zhang et al. 2009

15. PART II
Business as unusual is urgently needed for enhancing food security

16. Smarter
More innovative
Better focused
Cost-effective approach

17. Invest in two core pillars: Agriculture and social protection
1
!
Government expenditure in developing countries (2005 constant international dollars, PPP)
Improve smallholder productivity

• high-quality seeds
• 18. irrigation
• 19. fertilizer
• 20. infrastructure, etc.

Exploit synergies between agriculture and social protection
Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database 2010

21. Bring in new players
Private sector and public-private partnerships

• Can provide inclusive business initiatives and innovation to support fight against hunger
• 22. E.g.: Grameen Danone Foods, IndianRural Business Hubs, Business Alliance against Chronic Hunger

Philanthropies

• Can take more risks to reach the poor; promote social entrepreneurship
• 23. E.g. Gates Foundation, Heifer Intl, Helen Keller Intl

Right incentives and favorable business environment needed
2
!

24. Rising role of emerging economies in aid, trade, FDI, and food supply
2
!
Emerging economies need to be fully integrated in the global food security agenda

25. Adopt a country-led, bottom-up approach
3
!

• One-size-fits-all strategies do not work
• 26. Reforms that involve poor people as a driving force have a large potential

Some issues (e.g. climate change, trade) must be addressed at the global level, but also adapted to the local context
From G8 to G20, donors move to support country-led processes

27. Design policies using evidence and experiments
4
!
Experimentation can improve policy-making when

• Successful pilots are quickly scaled up
• 28. Unsuccessful policy options are eliminated
• 29. Political and legal space is important for experimentation
• 30. Increased investment in information gathering, monitoring, and evaluation is crucial

Try, test, adjust, and try again before scaling up

31. Walk the walk
5
!
Mechanisms are needed for accountability and timeliness (e.g. ReSAKSS, UN High-Level Task Force)

32. PART III
Agricultural science and technology, and policy research, are critical

33. Science and technology are critical to:
Increase yields
Enhance the nutritional value of food crops
Provide adaptive buffers against global shocks
Source: Chris Stowers/PANOS
Source: FBAE 2009

34. But modern technologies remain beyond the reach of many smallholders
Modern inputs are expensive and can increase risks in the event of production shocks
Less than 30% of farmers use modern seeds in Africa, compared to over 80% in Asia (Paarlberg 2008)
Tradable seeds remain scarce in Africa
Science and technology need to be complemented by sound policies

35. Food policy research can:
Confirm the appropriateness of policy actions taken
Indicate that policy actions are needed to reduce risks or increase benefits
Show the probable outcomes of alternative policies
Synthesize information on how others have coped with an issue
Alert policymakers to major threats
Policy research has evolved from a narrow focus to include the whole food value chain

36. Policy research insights for resource allocation
Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009 Note: n.e. indicates not estimated

37. Contribution of IFPRIs research to the CGIAR
More investment in food security, agriculture, rural development, and improved resource allocation
Improved policy environment for technological developments of other CGIAR centers
IFPRI leads CRP2: Policies, Institutions, and Markets to Strengthen Assets and Agricultural Incomes for the Poor
IFPRI and ILRI co-lead CRP4: Agriculture for Improved Health and Nutrition

38. The conference will:
bring together information on how to strengthen linkages among agriculture, nutrition, and health
identify best practices in policies and programs
further knowledge and build consensus on priorities for appropriate action
facilitate networks amongst stakeholders
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