Sustaining Groundwater Irrigation Economies:

China’s Challenge and Global Experience

Explosive Growth in Groundwater Use

• Powerful manifestation of growing water scarcity;

• Meteoric growth after 1960• Of the 1000 km3 /year of global groundwater

use, over 800 km3 in agriculture; 600 in South Asia and North China;

• Of the 300 m ha of global irrigation, over 1/3rd is from groundwater wells.

• Protecting groundwater is critical for future supply of domestic water needs.

Four Groundwater Socio-Ecologies (GwSEs)

Habitat-Support GwSEsWhere: Most cities, towns and villagesDriver: Population Density and IndustryChallenge: Depletion; Land Subsidence; Pollution

Non-Renewable GwSEsWhere: Arid and Semi-arid Regions; MENA; NubianDriver: Urban Growth and AgricultureChallenge: Planned utilization of a nonrenewable resource

Wealth-Creating GwSEsWhere: Western US; Israel; Turkey; Spain; S. Africa; Morocco; TunisiaDriver: Industrial, High-value AgricultureChallenge: Depletion; Drying up of wetlands and streams; Non-point pollution

Livelihoods-Support GwSEsWhere: India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, North China plainsDriver: Small-holder subsistence Agriculture Challenge: Sustaining massive livelihoods and protecting the resource

Danger zone

Growth in Population Density around the world (people/km2) , 1700 – 1990

Source: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Contrary to popular notion,

population growth over past 300

years occurred in semi-arid areas..

Expanding Cropland 1700-1990Fraction of grid cell in croplands

Source: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Because surface irrigation occurs in river valleys, we often think that gw irrigation too would concentrate in

regions of abundant recharge..

Source: Döll, P., Lehner, B., Kaspar, F. (2002): Global modeling of groundwater recharge. In Schmitz, G.H. (ed.): Proceedings of Third International Conference on Water Resources and the Environment Research, Technical University of Dresden, Germany, ISBN 3-934253-17-2, Vol. I, 27-31

Long-term average groundwater recharge

GW intensification has had little to do with resource Endowments; but with Population pressure..

MalthusVersus

Boserup

Growth in groundwater use in selected countries

(author's estimates)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

cub

ic k

m/y

ear

US

W.Europe

Spain

Mexico

China

India

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Vietnam

Ghana

South Africa

Tunisia

North China farmers have drastically increased their

groundwater use

Groundwater irrigated area in countries with intensive groundwater use in agriculture (FAO Aquastat 2003 and

other sources)

0.00

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

25000.00

30000.00

Azerb

aija

n

Peru

Nepal

Egypt

Philippin

es

Kore

a, D

em

People

's

Iraq

South

Afr

ica

Tunis

ia

Uzbekis

tan

Kazakhsta

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Afg

hanis

tan

Moro

cco

Arg

entina

Cuba

Yem

en

Japan

Bra

zil

Syrian A

rab R

epublic

Turk

ey

Saudi A

rabia

Mexic

o

Bangla

desh

Iran, Is

lam

ic R

ep o

f

Pakis

tan

US

A

Chin

a

India

000 h

a

According to FAO, gw irrigated area in India,

China, Pakistan, B’desh and Nepal together is larger

than anywhere else in the world...

Figure Top 20 Groundwater Irrigation Countries in the World (FAO AQUASTST 2003)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Ind

iaU

SA

Ch

ina

Pakis

tan

Iran

Ban

gla

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Mexic

oS

au

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Italy

Tu

rkey

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razil

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0.05.0

10.015.0

20.025.0

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%

Area under groundwater irrigation

% of farming area under groundwater irrigation

In sum, groundwater boom in Asia is driven by:

• Tubewell technology• High population pressure on land;• Semi-arid, monsoon climate• Green Revolution technology• Pump and tubewell technology• Failure of public irrigation systems• Electricity subsidies (in India, Mexico, Syria)

Country Annual groundwater

use (km3)

No of Agricultural

Ground-water

Structures (million)

Extraction/structure (m3/year)

% of population dependent directly or

indirectly on groundwater

irrigation

India 200-210 21 7900 55-60

Pakistan-Punjab 45 0.5 90000 60-65

China 75-90 3.5 21500 22-25

Iran 29 0.5 58000 12-18

Mexico 40 0.07 414285 5-6

USA 100 0.2 500,000 <1-2

Groundwater irrigation drives national and regional politics because it affects majority of

country’s population..

Beneficial impacts:• Biggest alleviator of rural poverty• Driver of agricultural productivity

growth• Spatial equity in access to irrigation• High water productivity• Socio-economic and political

stability• Mobilizes private capital

Negative Impacts.

• Groundwater depletion;• Increased pumping costs and energy use;• Drying up of lean season stream-flows and

wetlands;• Threat of Secondary salinization • Geo-genic contaminants: arsenic and

fluoride;

Informalization of Irrigation..

• In well-managed water economies, water users are mediated through formal water service providers; and self-supply is minimal.

• The groundwater boom has made some of Asia’s water economies highly informal. Most water users have little or no contact with public systems; so they are difficult to reach and regulate..

Reigning in the booming groundwater economy..

China’s new policy of ‘water withdrawal permits’ is designed to formalize groundwater irrigation economy..

Water saving technologies—drips and mulching-- are taking off in cotton and other crops..

To what extent will these ease aggregate pressure on China’s groundwater aquifers unclear.. Some argue only reducing irrigated areas will help.. But this will be difficult in the short run.

IWMI Assessment of Mexican Water Reforms

• ‘Concessions’: Water Rights and volumes assigned ; Tradable; COTAS

• Mexico has around 100,000 irrigation tubewells; despite that, monitoring concessions and penalizing violations has proved difficult;

• Doubtful if reforms have contained groundwater extraction

• Mexico is now turning to differential energy prices as a mechanism to penalize over-drafters.

Challenge of groundwater governance..

Banning private wells would be difficult to implement; crowd them out by improving public water supply

Regulating final users is difficult; facilitate mediating agencies to emerge, and regulate them. China has lessons to offer.

Pricing agricultural groundwater use is infeasible; instead, use energy pricing and supply to manage agricultural groundwater draft.

No alternative to improved supply side management: better rain-water capture and recharge, imported surface water in lieu of groundwater pumping.

Grow the economy, take pressure off land, formalize the water sector.

Transformation of Informal Water Economies with Overall Economic GrowthStage I:

Completely Informal

Stage II: Largely Informal

Stage III: Formalizing

Stage IV: Highly Formal Water

Industry

% of users in the formal sector

<5% 5-35% 35-75% 75-95%

Examples Sub-Saharan Africa

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, Eastern China

USA, Canada, Western Europe, Australia

Dominant mode of water service provision

Self-supply and informal mutual-help community institutions

Partial PublicProvisioning but self-supply dominates

Private-public provisioning; attempts to improve service and manage the resource

Rise of modern water industry; High Intermediation; self-supply disappears

Human, technical, financial resources used/km3 of water diversion

% of total water use self-supplied

Rural population as % of total

Cost of domestic water as % of per caput income

Cost of water service provision

Concerns of the Governments

Infrastructure creation in Welfare Mode

Infrastructure and Water services, especially in Urban areas in a welfare mode

Infrastructure and service in towns and villages; Cost recovery; Resource protection

Integrated mgt. of water infrastructure, service and resource; Resource protection

Institutional Arrangements

Self-help; mutual help and feudal institutions dominate

Informal Markets; Mutual help and community management institutions

Organized service providers; self-supply declines; informal institutions decline in significance

Self-supply disappears; all users get served by modern water industry.