sweden 2017 oecd economic survey growing more-equal
TRANSCRIPT
2017 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWEDEN
Growing more equal Stockholm, 8 February 2017
@OECD@OECDeconomy
http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-sweden.htm
The economy is growing strongly
2Note: For Denmark, Germany and Sweden, OECD projections for 2016 Q4 Source: OECD Economic Outlook database
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201690
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130Real GDP
Sweden Germany Denmark United States
2005Q1=100
Unemployment is trending down
3
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 20172
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Unemployment rate
Sweden Germany Denmark United States
% of labour force
Swedes enjoy a high quality of life
4
1. Each well-being dimension is measured by indicators from the OECD Better Life Indicator set. Indicators are normalised to range between 0 (worst) and 10 (best).
Source: OECD Better Life Index database
Real housing prices continue to rise
5
Note: Prices are adjusted by the private consumption deflatorSource: OECD Analytical Housing Prices Database
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
50
100
150
200
250
300Spain Canada Sweden Denmark
2000=100
Gross household debt is high
6
DEUFRA
ESPSW
ENOR
DNK0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
NORDNK
SWE
FINDEU
NLDGBRFRA
ESPUSA ITA0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Note: 2015 or latestSource: OECD Economic Outlook database
Households GovernmentGross debt % of GDP
Gross debt % of GDP
Inequality is fairly low, but has risen rapidly since the 1990s
7
Source: OECD Income Distribution and Poverty database
ISL
DN
K
FIN
BEL
AUT
SWE
HU
N
FRA
POL
IRL
ITA
JPN
PRT
ESP
GBR ES
T
USA
CH
L
05
101520253035404550
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Index IndexGini coefficient post taxes and transfers (2013 or latest)
Women’s employment rate is almost as high as men’s
8
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics
TUR
MEX
CH
L
KO
R
POL
IRL
OEC
LUX
PRT
USA JPN
AUT
GBR
NLD
CAN
DN
K
SWE
ISL0
102030405060708090
0102030405060708090
Women's employment rate, age 15-64, 2015% %
9
Key recommendations – Macroeconomic policies
Gradually withdraw monetary stimulus as inflation rises towards the 2% target.
Continue to pursue prudent fiscal policy, while accommodating temporary immigration-related spending to facilitate integration.
10
Key recommendations – Housing and household debt
Introduce a cap on household debt-to-income ratios.
Reform the recurrent property tax to better align tax charges with property values. Phase out the deductibility of mortgage interest rate payments.
Enhance co-operation between central and local government in land-use planning and increase incentives for municipalities to facilitate the timely release of development land. Simplify land-use planning procedures, balancing economic, environmental and social considerations.
Ease rental regulations to incentivise rental housing supply, mobility and better utilisation of the housing stock, while maintaining tenant protection against abuse.
INCOME, WEALTH AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES
11
The wealthy have prospered
12
Record wealth data for analytical purposes.
Median disposable income within each group
Source: Statistics Sweden
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Top 5% Bottom 5%
1991=100
Benefits have been lagging behind
13
Review annually the distributional consequences of raising social benefits, taking equity, fiscal costs and work incentives into consideration.
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
60
80
100
120
140
160
180WorkersUnemployed and sick
1991=100
Source: Statistics Sweden
Disposable income within each group
Low skills reduce employment and wages
14
Consolidate wage subsidy schemes for the most vulnerable workers and ease the related administrative burden to increase take-up.
50 60 70 80 90 10010
12
14
16
18
20
Very low skills
Moderate to low skills
Moderate to high skills
Very high skills
Employment rate, %
Mean hourly wages1
1. PPP adjusted USDSource: OECD Survey of Adult Skills (2012)
Wages and employment by literacy skill level (2012)
-0.0020.0000.0020.0040.0060.0080.0100.0120.014
Literacy - upper secondary graduates
NativesMigrants from high-income countries
PIAAC score points
Share of graduates
PIAAC level 1 and below
Disadvantaged immigrants need special targeting
15
Build on successful experiences at the local level to enhance the efficiency of integration.
1. The PIAAC literacy test was taken in Swedish for all groupsSource: OECD Survey of Adult Skills
High immigration poses challenges to integration
16
Continue to simplify the procedures to help migrants get residence and work permits.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0
20 00040 00060 00080 000
100 000120 000140 000160 000180 000
020 00040 00060 00080 000100 000120 000140 000160 000180 000
Labour and students Refugees and family reunionsPersons Persons
1. Excluding free movement immigrants from EEA countriesSource: Swedish Migration Agency
Gross migrant inflows1
Rental regulations hinder mobility
17
Ease rental regulations to incentivise rental housing supply, mobility and better utilisation of the housing stock, while maintaining tenant protection against abuse.
Consider some prioritisation of low-income households to municipal housing with allocation rules designed to limit spatial segregation.
Source: Stockholm Housing Agency.
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000Persons
Waiting list for rental housing in Stockholm
18
Key recommendations – Income inequality and equal opportunities
Review annually the distributional consequences of uprating social benefits, taking equity, fiscal costs and work incentives into consideration.
Continue to simplify the procedures to help migrants get residence and work permits.
Rationalise by merging and harmonising various wage subsidy schemes to better target the most vulnerable workers, ease the related administrative burden and increase take-up.
FIGHTING GENDER INEQUALITY
19
The gender wage gap is significant
20Source: OECD Employment Database
2014 or latest year available
HU
N
BEL
LUX
ESP
ITA
SVN
DEU SV
K
SWE
CZE
CH
L
GBR
AUS
MEX
TUR
NLD ES
T
KO
R
05
10152025303540
0510152025303540% %
Gender segregation across occupations is substantial
21
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics
Continue to develop methods to fight stereotypes in education. Address gender-specific weaknesses in education, whether faced by girls or boys.
Share of women by main activitiesHuman health and social work activities
Financial and insurance activitiesInformation and communication
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Sweden Other Nordics
%
Only a third of business sole-proprietors are women
22
Source: OECD Entrepreneurship database
Further promote female entrepreneurship through business promotion programmes creating a level playing field irrespective of gender, age or ethnic background. Develop data and analytical tools to evaluate these programmes.
Latest year available
NLD ITA AUTSV
KNOR
SVN JPN FIN CHL
NZLESP
SWE
FRAKOR
MEX0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50% %
Parental leave is fairly generous
23
Source: OECD Family Database
Encourage parents to split parental leave more equally by continuing to increase the share reserved for each parent.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 450
102030405060708090
100
AUS
AUT
BEL
CAN
CHL
CZEDNK
EST
FINFRA
DEU
HUN
ISL
ITA
JPN
KOR
LVA
LUX NOR
POLPRT
SVK
SVN
SWE
OECD average
Months
% of national average earnings
Paid parental and home care leave to mothers
ISL
CH
E
EST
CAN LU
X
AUS
SWE
CZE
USA
NLD SV
K
ESP
ITA
BEL
MEX
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90Native born Foreign born% %
Employment of foreign-born women is low compared to natives
24
Source: OECD Migration Statistics
Enhance active labour market policy for foreign-born women when the Introduction programme ends, to prevent them from drifting away from the labour market.
25
Key recommendations – Gender equality
Encourage parents to split parental leave more equally by continuing to increase the share reserved for each parent.
Enhance active labour market policy for foreign-born women when the Introduction programme ends, to prevent them from drifting away from the labour market.
26
For more information
http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-sweden.htm
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