swedish fiscal policy
DESCRIPTION
Swedish Fiscal Policy. Annual report Swedish Fiscal Policy Council 2009. Two main questions. How well has the government adjusted policy to the economic crisis? How should the economic-policy framework be developed?. The government’s measures to handle the financial crisis. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Swedish Fiscal PolicyAnnual report Swedish Fiscal Policy Council 2009
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Two main questionsHow well has the government adjusted policy to the economic crisis?How should the economic-policy framework be developed?
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The governments measures to handle the financial crisisMainly adequateGood effects of the bank guarantee programmeLegal framework to deal with insolvent banks should have been put in place earlierEstablish a government agency to administer the support for the financial markets - unfortunate double role for the National Debt Office - both business transactions and administration of support programme
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Financial risksThe spring bill reports the governments commitmentsBut it is difficult to get an overviewNeed of analysis of different risk scenariosSuch analyses should be developed as soon as possible
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Need of more fiscal stimulus?Drastic revisions of the business cycle forecasts: from GDP rise of 1.3 percent to GDP fall of 4,2 percentLess generous unemployment insuranceTax cuts in the budget bill were not designed to stabilise the business cycleThe automatic stabilisers been weakened, but only marginallyRisks for the sustainability of fiscal policyMore difficult to stimulate the economy at later stages of the slump.Households may save moreLong-term interest rates may rise
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Automatic stabilisers
net lending
automatic stabilizers discretionary component
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Contributions to the budget elasticity
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Average and marginal tax rates 2003 and 2009
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38.789347091335.16655290156.1756.52
38.818712426235.202896081856.1756.52
38.847766812435.239285714356.1756.52
38.876722541935.275382003456.1756.52
38.905790467535.311355932256.1756.52
38.941059882235.347208121856.1756.52
38.969920927435.382939189256.1756.52
38.998475346635.418718381156.1756.52
39.026933622935.454208754256.1756.52
39.055504824735.489579831956.1756.52
39.083771916435.524832214856.1756.52
39.112152195835.559966499256.1756.52
39.140230020735.595150501756.1756.52
39.168214096635.630050083556.1756.52
39.196311737635.664833333356.1756.52
39.224109374435.699500831956.1756.52
39.251814660335.734053156156.1756.52
39.27963387135.768656716456.1756.52
39.307155489635.802980132556.1756.52
39.334586127635.837190082656.1756.52
39.362131032835.871287128756.1756.52
39.389380720535.905271828756.1756.52
39.416744894835.939309210556.1756.52
39.450132858135.973070607656.1756.52
39.477104265736.006721311556.1756.52
39.504190508636.040261865856.1756.52
39.530985444836.073692810556.1756.52
39.557692958736.10717781456.1756.52
39.584515606536.140390879556.1756.52
39.611049225836.17349593556.1756.52
39.637698169736.206493506556.1756.52
39.664059585236.239384116756.1756.52
39.690335688636.272330097156.1756.52
39.716727389736.305008077556.1756.52
39.742833783436.337580645256.1756.52
39.768856098636.370048309256.1756.52
39.794994269936.402411575656.1756.52
39.820849321636.434831460756.1756.52
39.846621504636.466987179556.1756.52
39.872509788136.4990456.1756.52
39.904262990536.530990415356.1756.52
39.929976763636.562838915556.1756.52
39.955411022736.594745222956.1756.52
39.980764409736.62639109756.1756.52
40.006234305436.657936507956.1756.52
40.031426789136.689381933456.1756.52
40.056539549736.720727848156.1756.52
40.08176902736.752132701456.1756.52
40.106723163336.783280757156.1756.52
40.131794148436.814330708756.1756.52
40.156591156836.845283018956.1756.52
40.181310309636.876138147656.1756.52
40.206146498336.907053291556.1756.52
40.230710731436.9377151856.1756.52
40.255198201436.9682812556.1756.52
40.279802882336.998751950156.1756.52
40.304137599837.029127725956.1756.52
40.334573033937.059564541256.1756.52
40.358747130837.089751552856.1756.52
40.382846269437.119844961256.1756.52
40.40706291437.149845201256.1756.52
40.431012880937.179752704856.1756.52
40.454888928137.209722222256.1756.52
40.478882625737.239445300556.1756.52
40.502611562437.269076923156.1756.52
40.526267599237.298617511556.1756.52
40.550041419937.328067484756.1756.52
40.573552369437.357580398256.1756.52
40.597181186437.386850152956.1756.52
40.620548377737.416030534456.1756.52
40.643844327637.445121951256.1756.52
40.667258261237.474124809756.1756.52
40.69041241537.503191489456.1756.52
40.713496298337.532018209456.1756.52
40.736698271637.560757575856.1756.52
40.76546274437.589409984956.1756.52
40.788516121537.617975830856.1756.52
40.811312766137.646606334856.1756.52
40.834040746137.67556.1756.52
40.856886998737.703308270756.1756.52
40.879478296737.731531531556.1756.52
40.902001854737.759670164956.1756.52
40.924643766137.787874251556.1756.52
40.947032477237.815844544156.1756.52
40.96953959137.843731343356.1756.52
40.991794660937.871535022456.1756.52
41.013983495437.899255952456.1756.52
41.036290798837.927043090656.1756.52
41.058347773137.954599406556.1756.52
41.080339393537.982074074156.1756.52
41.102449540338.009467455656.1756.52
41.124311049938.036779911456.1756.52
41.151965637938.06415929256.1756.52
41.173689829138.091310751156.1756.52
41.195350125738.118382352956.1756.52
41.217129051638.145374449356.1756.52
41.238662134438.1722873956.1756.52
41.260132162738.199267935656.1756.52
41.281720856438.226023391856.1756.52
41.303065339138.252700729956.1756.52
41.32434759338.279300291556.1756.52
41.345748540738.305822416356.1756.52
41.36690688838.332412790756.1756.52
41.388183944338.358780841856.1756.52
41.409219462538.385072463856.1756.52
41.430194096438.411287988456.1756.52
41.451287455638.437427745756.1756.52
41.472140852538.463636363656.1756.52
41.492934153138.489625360256.1756.52
41.513846188438.515539568356.1756.52
41.540047579738.541379310356.1756.52
41.560832014638.567144906756.1756.52
41.581379091238.592979942756.1756.52
41.601867377938.618597997156.1756.52
41.622474422638.644142857156.1756.52
Average tax 2003
Average tax 2009
Marginal tax 2003
Marginal tax 2009
1.1
Figur 1.1 Svenska bankers utlning till icke-finansiella fretag (t o m februari 2009). Klla: SCB Finansmarknadsstatistik (uppdateras 29 april)
FUNDERA P DATUM P X-AXELN (TIDSINTERVALL OCH ETIKETTER)
rMdr kr1
1998395.1
1998392.9
1998408.7
1998417.3
1998435.1
1998447.0
1998438.9
1998431.9
1998446.4
1998458.8
1998472.0
1998442.2
1999459.446
1999478.044
1999485.559
1999492.657sista
1999504.411
1999494.953
1999483.654
1999496.909
1999495.744
1999496.654
1999493.61
1999491.916
2000517.494
2000510.98
2000511.212
2000517.242
2000517.87
2000521.456
2000527.961
2000548.893
2000539.996
2000549.522
2000556.382
2000547.212
2001567.791
2001591.49
2001603.378
2001622.787
2001624.172
2001621.781
2001621.786
2001629.392
2001651.302
2001655.032
2001651.028
2001640.081
2002644.727
2002645.514
2002656.634
2002644.378
2002623.929
2002630.844
2002626.108
2002631.174
2002636.245
2002635.425
2002650.672
2002636.869
2003618.897
2003626.686
2003620.359
2003621.728
2003623.402
2003623.851
2003615.092
2003622.819
2003611.446
2003618.81
2003610.026
2003612.718
2004599.888
2004617.78
2004622.408
2004619.244
2004611.649
2004617.279
2004609.542
2004616.275
2004614.377
2004615.192
2004623.189
2004628.023
2005628.21
2005637.97
2005648.591
2005664.423
2005672.071
2005686.968
2005687.282
2005686.75
2005718.979
2005714.737
2005717.102
2005742.556
2006736.934
2006764.719
2006772.123
2006792.582
2006822.223
2006819.914
2006827.941
2006829.265
2006828.433
2006837.926
2006847.079
2006829.141
2007871.712
2007875.028
2007892.26
2007907.527
2007947.925
2007942.607
2007964.118
2007980.899
2007985.327
20071038.676
20071048.062
20071094.411
20081107.022
20081108.519
20081129.586
20081160.118
20081168.435
20081175.054
20081167.592
20081169.998
20081219.916
20081225.792
20081233.525
20081218.399
20091219.956
20091233.264
1.1
Mdr kr
1.2
Figur 1.2 Svenska bankers utlning till fretagarhushll. Klla: SCB Finansmarknadsstatistik (uppdateras 29 april)
FUNDERA P DATUM P X-AXELN (TIDSINTERVALL OCH ETIKETTER)
rMdr kr
199851.5JanuariJanuari 1998
199853.5FebruariFebruari 1998
199853.7MarsMars 1998
199853.2AprilApril 1998
199853.6MajMaj 1998
199855.1JuniJuni 1998
199854.9JuliJuli 1998
199855.0AugustiAugusti 1998
199855.7SeptemberSeptember 1998
199854.7OktoberOktober 1998
199855.2NovemberNovember 1998
199856.4DecemberDecember 1998
199956.566JanuariJanuari 1999
199956.237FebruariFebruari 1999
199956.283MarsMars 1999
199956.909AprilApril 1999
199957.221MajMaj 1999
199958.156JuniJuni 1999
199958.216JuliJuli 1999
199958.248AugustiAugusti 1999
199959.025SeptemberSeptember 1999
199959.19OktoberOktober 1999
199958.963NovemberNovember 1999
199958.78DecemberDecember 1999
200058.488JanuariJanuari 2000
200058.966FebruariFebruari 2000
200060.806MarsMars 2000
200060.858AprilApril 2000
200059.666MajMaj 2000
200060.926JuniJuni 2000
200065.508JuliJuli 2000
200065.788AugustiAugusti 2000
200067.282SeptemberSeptember 2000
200065.657OktoberOktober 2000
200065.879NovemberNovember 2000
200066.058DecemberDecember 2000
200166.23JanuariJanuari 2001
200166.863FebruariFebruari 2001
200167.052MarsMars 2001
200167.704AprilApril 2001
200168.274MajMaj 2001
200168.622JuniJuni 2001
200168.625JuliJuli 2001
200169.142AugustiAugusti 2001
200169.265SeptemberSeptember 2001
200170.376OktoberOktober 2001
200171.98NovemberNovember 2001
200171.126DecemberDecember 2001
200271.702JanuariJanuari 2002
200271.965FebruariFebruari 2002
200273.216MarsMars 2002
200272.838AprilApril 2002
200273.186MajMaj 2002
200274.352JuniJuni 2002
200274.537JuliJuli 2002
200274.705AugustiAugusti 2002
200275.342SeptemberSeptember 2002
200275.313OktoberOktober 2002
200276.761NovemberNovember 2002
200275.911DecemberDecember 2002
200375.815JanuariJanuari 2003
200375.99FebruariFebruari 2003
200376.164MarsMars 2003
200376.26AprilApril 2003
200375.284MajMaj 2003
200376.002JuniJuni 2003
200375.704JuliJuli 2003
200375.551AugustiAugusti 2003
200375.927SeptemberSeptember 2003
200375.847OktoberOktober 2003
200376.098NovemberNovember 2003
200377.406DecemberDecember 2003
200477.06JanuariJanuari 2004
200476.994FebruariFebruari 2004
200477.617MarsMars 2004
200477.379AprilApril 2004
200477.608MajMaj 2004
200478.805JuniJuni 2004
200478.864JuliJuli 2004
200478.915AugustiAugusti 2004
200479.707SeptemberSeptember 2004
200479.752OktoberOktober 2004
200480.015NovemberNovember 2004
200481.171DecemberDecember 2004
200580.311JanuariJanuari 2005
200582.949FebruariFebruari 2005
200584.716MarsMars 2005
200584.799AprilApril 2005
200584.792MajMaj 2005
200587.878JuniJuni 2005
200588.203JuliJuli 2005
200589.808AugustiAugusti 2005
200592.446SeptemberSeptember 2005
200593.144OktoberOktober 2005
200593.795NovemberNovember 2005
200594.735DecemberDecember 2005
200694.355JanuariJanuari 2006
200695.179FebruariFebruari 2006
200696.925MarsMars 2006
200698.56AprilApril 2006
200699.326MajMaj 2006
2006101.775JuniJuni 2006
2006102.366JuliJuli 2006
2006103.027AugustiAugusti 2006
2006104.384SeptemberSeptember 2006
2006104.73OktoberOktober 2006
2006105.815NovemberNovember 2006
2006107.24DecemberDecember 2006
2007106.877JanuariJanuari 2007
2007107.265FebruariFebruari 2007
2007108.353MarsMars 2007
2007108.862AprilApril 2007
2007109.307MajMaj 2007
2007110.415JuniJuni 2007
2007110.989JuliJuli 2007
2007111.589AugustiAugusti 2007
2007113.594SeptemberSeptember 2007
2007154.594OktoberOktober 2007
2007156.306NovemberNovember 2007
2007156.565DecemberDecember 2007
2008157.135JanuariJanuari 2008
2008157.282FebruariFebruari 2008
2008161.978MarsMars 2008
2008163.248AprilApril 2008
2008165.332MajMaj 2008
2008167.917JuniJuni 2008
2008169.278JuliJuli 2008
2008170.356AugustiAugusti 2008
2008171.629SeptemberSeptember 2008
2008171.814OktoberOktober 2008
2008172.502NovemberNovember 2008
2008172.962DecemberDecember 2008
2009173.254JanuariJanuari 2009
2009172.832FebruariFebruari 2009
1.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Mdr kr
1.3
Figur 1.3 Svenska icke-finansiella fretags nyupplning (netto, mdr dollar) p de internationella obligationsmarknaderna mars 1994 december 2008. Klla: BIS International debt securities statistics, mars 2009, international debt securities, corporate i
FUNDERA P DATUM P X-AXELN (TIDSINTERVALL OCH ETIKETTER)
Linje
1995-0.10.0
19950.00.0
19950.30.0
1995-0.20.0
1996-0.80.0
1996-0.60.0
1996-0.20.0
19960.20.0
19970.40.0
1997-0.2370.0
1997-0.2660.0
19970.2140.0
19980.1180.0
19981.6120.0
1998-0.1750.0
19980.2510.0
19990.140.0
19992.6830.0
19990.7770.0
19990.4510.0
20000.2450.0
2000-1.1120.0
20001.3780.0
20000.6430.0
20011.6660.0
20013.1440.0
2001-1.2980.0
20010.8180.0
20020.3860.0
2002-0.0070.0
2002-0.0160.0
20020.0670.0
2003-0.1170.0
2003-0.6260.0
2003-0.0330.0
2003-0.6490.0
20040.6410.0
20040.3010.0
2004-0.8360.0
2004-0.310.0
20050.2570.0
20052.4230.0
20050.0170.0
2005-0.2840.0
20060.260.0
2006-3.0530.0
2006-0.0920.0
20060.6510.0
20071.9480.0
20076.7270.0
2007-0.0450.0
20070.8830.0
2008-1.7710.0
2008-0.4360.0
2008-0.0140.0
2008-0.0260.0
1.3
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
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1.4
Figur 1.4 Andel bankkontor som har minskat utlningen till fretag jmfrt med fregende kvartal. Klla: ALMI Fretagsparteners Lneindikator, Mars 2009
FUNDERA P DATUM P X-AXELN (TIDSINTERVALL OCH ETIKETTER)
Andel minskat
September 20046.0September2004
December 20043.0December2004
Mars 20056.0Mars2005
Juni 20057.0Juni2005
September 20053.0September2005
December 20055.0December2005
Mars 20065.0Mars2006
Juni 20066.0Juni2006
September 20064.0September2006
December 20065.0December2006
Mars 20077.0Mars2007
Juni 20071.0Juni2007
September 20076September2007
December 20076December2007
Mars 200813Mars2008
Juni 200818Juni2008
September 200824September2008
December 200838December2008
Mars 200924Mars2009
1.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.5
Figur 1.5 Budgetelasticitet och den offentliga sektorns storlek
BudgetelasticitetOffentliga utgifter som andel av BNP
USA0.30.4
Japan0.30.4
Tyskland0.50.5
Frankrike0.50.5
Italien0.50.5
UK0.50.4
Kanada0.40.4
Australien0.40.3
sterrike0.50.5
Belgien0.50.5
Tjeckien0.40.5
Danmark0.60.5
Finland0.480.501
Grekland0.470.45
Ungern0.470.491
Island0.370.456
Irland0.380.333
Korea0.220.309
Luxemburg0.470.419
Nederlnderna0.530.471
Nya Zeeland0.370.388
Norge0.530.483
Polen0.440.446
Portugal0.460.455
Slovakien0.370.401
Spanien0.440.384
Sverige0.550.56
Schweiz0.370.364
1.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Offentliga utgifter som andel av BNP
Offentliga utgifter som andel av BNP
Budgetelasticitet
USA
Japan
Tyskland
Frankrike
Italien
UK
Kanada
Australien
sterrike
Belgien
Tjeckien
Danmark
Finland
Grekland
Ungern
Island
Irland
Korea
Luxemburg
Nederlnderna
Nya Zeeland
Norge
Polen
Portugal
Slovakien
Spanien
Sverige
Schweiz
1.6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Offentliga utgifter som andel av BNP
Offentliga utgifter som andel av BNP
Budgetelasticitet
Schweiz
Sverige
Spanien
Slovakien
Portugal
Polen
Norge
Nya Zeeland
Nederlnderna
Luxemburg
Korea
Irland
Island
Ungern
Grekland
Finland
Danmark
Tjeckien
Belgien
sterrike
Australien
Kanada
Storbritannien
Italien
Frankrike
Tyskland
Japan
USA
1.7
Figur 1.6 Genomsnittlig skatt och marginalskatt 2003 och 2009
Inkomst (tkr)avg tax 2003avg tax 2009mrt 2003mrt 2009InkomstAverage tax 2003Average tax 2009Marginal tax 2003Marginal tax 2009InkomstAverage tax 2003Average tax 2009Marginal tax 2003Marginal tax 2009
100,00024.514.426.124.66200,00028.274101104221.4735.4929.4720000028.274101104221.4735.4929.47
101,00024.514.526.124.945201,00028.306319578921.509452736335.49529.48520100028.306319578921.509452736335.49529.485
102,00024.514.626.125.245202,00028.349278115821.54900990135.4929.47520200028.349278115821.54900990135.4929.475
103,00024.514.726.125.535203,00028.381420202521.588177339935.4929.4720300028.381420202521.588177339935.4929.47
104,00024.514.826.125.815204,00028.422981068421.626960784335.49529.4720400028.422981068421.626960784335.49529.47
105,00024.614.926.126.11205,00028.445974433821.665853658535.4929.46520500028.445974433821.665853658535.4929.465
106,00024.615.026.326.41206,00028.476576570221.702912621435.49529.4720600028.476576570221.702912621435.49529.47
107,00024.615.026.526.695207,00028.517674963721.740579710135.4929.4720700028.517674963721.740579710135.4929.47
108,00024.615.126.826.98208,00028.548234803921.777884615435.4929.4720800028.548234803921.777884615435.4929.47
109,00024.615.226.927.275209,00028.607005293221.81435406735.4929.47520900028.607005293221.81435406735.4929.475
110,00024.615.327.227.565210,00028.617937132221.851904761935.4929.4621000028.617937132221.851904761935.4929.46
111,00024.615.327.527.87211,00028.65758645421.887203791535.4929.4721100028.65758645421.887203791535.4929.47
112,00024.667413053215.419642857127.728.145212,00028.696276314321.922641509435.49529.48521200028.696276314321.922641509435.49529.485
113,00024.673169289315.492035398228.0128.44213,00028.725280283421.958215962435.4929.47521300028.725280283421.958215962435.4929.475
114,00024.694065773115.563157894728.1728.735214,00028.7638721721.993457943935.4929.4721400028.7638721721.993457943935.4929.47
115,00024.700569330915.633043478328.47529.03215,00028.773820166922.02837209335.4929.4821500028.773820166922.02837209335.4929.48
116,00024.687702745515.702586206928.7929.32216,00028.811829999622.063425925935.4929.47521600028.811829999622.063425925935.4929.475
117,00024.725971873815.79401709428.94529.47217,00028.839194905222.096774193535.49529.4721700028.839194905222.096774193535.49529.47
118,00024.713108090315.910169491529.2629.47218,00028.876556139722.13073394535.4929.4721800028.876556139722.13073394535.4929.47
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