sylvia knight, atmospheric, oceanic and planetary physics ...real priorities of implementing...
TRANSCRIPT
Predicting Future Climate Change
Sylvia Knight, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics,
University of Oxford
The Day After Tomorrow
The science of climate change
• What is “climate” and why do we think it is changing?
• How can we predict climate when we can’t predict the weather?
• What are the main uncertainties in climate prediction?
• Simulating climate change: the science of climate modelling.
• Using spare capacity on personal computers for global climate prediction.
“Climate is what we expect; weather is what we get”
Climate is the statistics of the weather• Mean annual Indian Rainfall• Average October temperature in Astana• How often hurricanes happen in the Gulf of
Mexico
What is the Climate?
”Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get”
“In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties,most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, 2001
Mountain glaciers of the Zailiiskiy Alatau
Source: Stephan Harrison, University of Oxford
• 416 glaciers
• Losing 0.7% of their mass per year (1955 – 2000)
• Glaciers are mainly small, with rapid response times
• 75-80% of water supply derived from glaciers and permafrost
Multiyear fluctuations of mean January monthly temperatures in the northern Zailiiskiy Alatau range (1– Almaty, 847 m asl, 2 –Bolshaya Almatinskoye Lake, 2516 m asl). Solid line is the 10-year moving average.
-18
-16
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01870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
YearsT,C
1
2
Source: Stephan Harrison, University of Oxford
Tuyuksu Glacier
• 5km long• 4km2 in area• Measurements since 1870• Retreated throughout 20th century• Retreated 10m in 2000
Tuyuksu Glacier mass balance
Source: Stephan Harrison, University of Oxford
Climate is determined by factors like:
•Solar irradiance (power output of the sun)•Volcanic activity•Atmospheric composition (greenhouse gases etc...)•Positions of continents, ice-sheets etc.
We call these the ‘forcing mechanisms’
SUN
Sunlightpasses
through the atmosphere..
..and warms the earth.
..most escapes to outer spaceand cools the earth...
Infra-red radiationis given off by the earth...
…but some IR is trapped by some gases in the air,
thus reducing the cooling….
Source: Ellie Highwood
Energy in the climate system
Leaky Bucket
Weather/ climate model
MODEL
observationsWhat we know willchange in the future
• Models are simplified versions of real systems
• In the case of climate prediction, what we mean by a model is a set of equations that represents how the atmosphere and oceans behave – how temperature patterns develop, how winds blow etc.
General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere:
3 Equations of Motion Equation of StateEnergy EquationMass Conservation
} 3D wind fieldTemperaturePressureDensity
• Convection scheme • Cloud scheme • Radiation scheme• Sulphur cycle• Precipitation• Land surface and vegetation• Gravity wave drag scheme
The Model also includes:
Each of these equations is evaluated at each point in the model [96 longitudes by 73 latitudes by 19 vertical levels] every half hour
timestep
Models forced by natural changes
Models forced by anthropogenic changes
Models forced by anthropogenic and natural changes
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001
We can produce very detailed predictions of climate change with no idea of how reliable they
might be
2080 temperature change (K)
2080 precipitation change (%)
Source: Dr. Mat Collins, Hadley Centre
Do you trust a weather forecast?
Double Pendulum
Courtesy of Ross Bannister
Initial speed400.1 degrees/ sec
Initial speed400.0 degrees/ sec
Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wing in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?Ed Lorenz
CHAOS
The climate is like a game of roulette…
Parameters perturbed• Critical Relative Humidity (RHcrit)
- related to the cloud cover distribution in a grid box.• Accretion constant (CT)
- related to growth of rain droplets and lifetime of clouds.• Condensation nuclei concentration (CW)
- affects water holding capacity and lifetime of clouds.• Ice fall velocity (VF1)
10.5 – 2.0VF15x10-52x10-5 – 5x10-4CW - sea2x10-41x10-4 – 2x10-3CW - land1x10-45x10-5 - 4x10-4CT0.70.5 – 0.95 (0.6 – 0.9)RHcrit“Standard” valuesRange:Parameter:
Climate Sensitivity
So for a complete climate forecast, we need to find out what hundreds of thousands of models do….
Initial conditions: all the possible ‘butterflies’
Forcing mechanisms: carbon dioxide, volcanoes …
‘Parameters’ – climate models aren’t perfect
Hundreds of Thousands of possible model variants…
Standard model set-up
Perturbedphysics
ensemble
Initialconditionensemble
Boundary Conditions (forcing) ensemble
Overall em
bedded-ensemble
www.climateprediction.net
Experiment 1 (September 2003 – end 2005)
How does each model react when carbon dioxide is doubled?
→ Investigate the sensitivity of the models to changes in the composition of the atmosphere
Experiment 2 (February 2006)
How well does each model do at reproducing the climate of 1950-2000?
→ Find out which models we believe more than others
What climate does each model predict for 2000 - 2050?
→ A probability-based climate forecast for the 21st century
Climateprediction.net experiment design
Climate Sensitivity: the equilibrium response of globally averaged temperature to a doubling of Carbon Dioxide
47334 climateprediction.net simulations passing initial quality control
Courtesy of Ben Sanderson
Traditional range
High risk of substantial warming even with today’s greenhouse gas levels
Can we really talk about a ‘safe’ stabilisation limit?
Standard model version
Low sensitivity model
High sensitivity model
Regional responses: temperature and precipitation
Regional Behaviour – European PrecipitationMediterranean Basin Northern Europe
WinterWinter
SummerSummer
Annual Annual
Unpublished analysis from climateprediction.net: Source: David Stainforth
Record hot events are more likely in a generally warmer world
Summer 2003 temperatures relative to 2000-2004
From NASA’s MODIS - Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, courtesy of RetoStöckli, ETHZ
Excess mortality rates in early August 2003 indicate 22,000 - 35,000 heat-related deaths
Daily mortality in Baden-Württemberg
Was the hot summer of 2003 due to climate change?
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have doubled the risk of a summer like 2003
By 2050, it could be that hot every other summer
We can’t say.
In law, if you can show that the actions of a person or organisation have doubled the risk of a damaging event, you can claim compensation for the damage caused
Fossil fuels are artificially cheap, since we pay for the cost of extraction, and not for the cost of the impacts
If politicians were to apply the “polluter pays principal” to the producers of fossil fuels, it may well make more sense to sell carbon neutral fuel (from a renewable energy source, or where an equal amount of carbon has been removed from the system in compensation)
What is Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)?
Source: Claire Gough, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
• More acceptable solution than nuclear power?
• Current price of carbon is £15 per tonne CO2
• Research shows cost of capture, transport and storage from UK power stations to be between £25 and £60 per tonne CO2
The technology is already in use• Sleipner: 1 MTCO2 per annum since 1996 stored
in saline aquifers below North Sea.
• Weyburn Enhanced Oil Recovery Programme: 20 Mt CO2 will be stored. CO2 supplied via a 205 mile pipeline from plant in North Dakota.
• In Salah, Algeria: Storage in Hydrocarbon Reservoirs CO2 to be removed from the gas produced and reinjected into depleted gas reservoirs
“We have no objection in principle to the capture of carbon dioxide and its storage in underground formations but the pursuit of this technology is a distraction from the real priorities of implementing renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies which are available right now. We've given tax breaks to companies for getting oil and gas out of the ground, we shouldn't subsidise them to put the subsequent pollution back underground."
Bill Hare, Greenpeace. Guardian 15/06/05
2005 U.K. Budget:"Carbon capture and storage […] is likely to
prove a critical technology in global carbon reduction strategies. The Government is therefore examining how it might support the development of CCS in the Climate Change Programme Review, including the potential for new economic incentives."
www.climateprediction.net
Standard Visualisation Package
Since September 2003, 105,000 participants in 142 countries (8 in Kazakhstan)have completed 115,000 45 -year model runscomputed 8 million model years donated 8,000 years of computing time
Temperature 2000 - 2100
Will the results of experiment 3 look like this made up figure?