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Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management

We at SITM are committed to develop world class Telecom

Business Leaders, who can effectively handle the dynamic

and ever - changing technological and business dynamics

with absolute ease and authority. The team at SITM firmly

believes in strong academics combined with industry

exposure through visits of several experts from the

industry. The programs offered by SITM integrate a

competitive learning environment through a broad

curriculum encompassing classroom teaching, valuable

industry inputs, research projects, seminars, workshops

and a myriad of extracurricular activities. In the pursuit of

excellence and to give the curriculum its distinctive flavour,

the syllabus is continually revived based on the inputs from

the faculty, industry and alumni. All the programs follow

intensive case studies based approach.

SITM lays deep emphasis on an all-round development of

the individual which includes improving communication

skills, nurturing teamwork and inculcating a never say die

attitude.

The Telecommunication and IT form backbone for any

company hence managing them effectively and strategically

to ensure that overall company strategy is well supported by

IT and Telecom. SITM has 1400+ strong alumni network and

most of our alumni are holding middle level to senior

management positions in companies.

Last but not the least, we strive to instil human values to

make better citizens with moral courage and zeal to follow

their heart, make a difference and help them achieve their

true potential.

1SYMBIOSIS INSTITUTE OF TELECOM MANAGEMENT 1

DIRECTOR'S MESSAGESITM is the pioneer educational institution in Asia imparting management education to

aspiring telecom managers. SITM has consistently endeavoured to take up new initiatives

in both business and research domains.

One such effort is Prévision, SITM's Annual Telecom Forecast. Prévision is in its 11th year

and aims at providing the industry a neutral and insightful single point of view regarding

the emerging trends in the telecom sector for the forthcoming year. Telecom domain

continues to observe new emerging technologies and business models and all of this is

making forecasting a challenge. The forecast is presented in the flagship event of SITM,

International Telecom Seminar. It is noted that the forecast presented in this report is very

well received by the industry.

The Prevision involves accumulating inputs from detailed research into contemporary

telecom technologies, telecom business and other determinants of change and

meticulously analyzing them and forecasting future trends. It is a culmination of the

collective endeavor of SITM students with 1500 man hours of efforts put in by them. The

student forecast team is guided by the SITM faculty and some of our esteemed alumni. As

part of ongoing process improvement for Prevision, SITM students for the past 2 years

have been conducting a Corporate Interaction Program. The insights gained from such

interactions with Industry Subject Matter Experts have improved the quality of our

predictions and the students have benefitted immensely from their knowledge &

experience.

We are fortunate to have Deloitte Haskins & Sells for their continued initiatives in both thbusiness and research domains. At the release of the 11 edition of the Prevision I would

like to thank the SITM Alumni community and the telecom industry for sharing their

valuable insights with Prevision team. Your contribution has helped us in improving the

quality of the predictions. I would also like to thank Dr K.S.S. Iyer, Honorary Adjunct

Professor, SITM for guiding the Prevision team in the application of forecasting models

for statistical analysis.

Prof. Sunil Patil Director

2 DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE

MESSAGE FROM FACULTY IN-CHARGE It gives me immense pleasure in presenting to you the eleventh edition of the Prévision,

SITM's Annual Telecom Forecast. The SITM curriculum lays a lot of emphasis on

nurturing research aptitude of the students in the form of Summer Project & Research

Project. Prévision is an extension of this thought process. It provides the students a

platform to understand the linkages between the theoretical learning and dynamic

industry trends. Through the Prévision research process the students are able to

understand the effect of macro-economic, technological & regulatory factors on the

telecom industry in India as well as the world.

Prévision, which is in its 11th year was conceptualised in 2003 by one of our esteemed

alumnus Mr Kundan Das (Batch-1998-2000), who then teamed up with two other Alumni ,

Mr Rahul Sharma (Batch-1999-2001) & Mr Aniruddha Harne (Batch 2002 – 2004). This

Alumni team has, over the years grown with active participation by Alumni from

subsequent batches, who have continuously guided the student team. Prévision was

started with the aim of providing the industry a neutral and insightful single point of view

regarding the emerging telecom trends. And this year's Prévision is yet another step in

that direction.

The three step research process starts with data collection, followed by data analysis with

the help of statistical models and finally culminates into forecast after incorporating inputs

of SITM Alumni & Faculty. The MBA 1st year students, through the activity of data

collection under the guidance of the 2nd year students get initiated into the forecast

process. At the data analysis stage, the 2nd year students get an opportunity to assimilate

knowledge from statistics, technology and experiential learning gained during their

summer internships. Whitepapers, written by the students at the end of second stage are

reviewed by some of our Alumni, SITM faculty & Industry mentors from Deloitte Haskins

& Sells. The final Prévision document incorporates the comments/changes suggested by

them. The entire Prévision process is closely monitored & guided by SITM faculty. And the

process streamlining is supervised by Deloitte Haskins & Sells.

In Prévision 2014, we have, in our special feature discussed the techno-commercial

aspects of Near Field Communications (NFC). In the opinion of the industry experts, the

banking/e-commerce/m-commerce industry and their distribution channels can drive the

adoption of NFC. Telcos may not be in a position to contribute in the uptake of NFC due to

the absence of a value chain and the related revenue share model. For the past ten years,

the SITM Alumni community has guided and provided the Prévision team with their

insights on key trends in the telecom domain. I thank the SITM Alumni for their continued

support. I also express my gratitude to the telecom fraternity for its support. We look

forward for your comments/feedback.

MESSAGE FROM FACULTY IN-CHARGE 3

Prof. Giri G Hallur Asst. Professor &

Faculty In charge of Prevision,

SITM

[email protected]

4

Prévision - SITM Annual Telecom Forecast is in its 9th year,

initiated in the year 2003, with the purpose of providing the

industry a neutral and insightful single point of view

regarding the emerging trends in the telecom sector for the

forthcoming year, after accumulating inputs from detailed

research into contemporary telecom technologies, telecom

business and other determinants of change.

METHODOLOGY

StudentResearchProjects

IndustryInputs

IndustryWatch

SummerInternships

900 AlumniMentorship

METHODOLOGY

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

EXTRAPOLATION

LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION

POLYNOMIAL EXTRAPOLATION

TREND ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

In statistics, exponential smoothing refers to a particular

type of moving average technique applied to time series

data, either to produce smoothed data for presentation or to

make forecasts.

This model statistically extrapolates established pattern

and/or existing relationship in order to predict their

continuation, assuming that such pattern relationship will

not change during the forecasting phase.

Linear extrapolation means creating a tangent line at the end

of the known data and extending it beyond that limit.

A polynomial curve can be created through the entire known

data or just near the end. The resulting curve can then be

extended beyond the end of the known data. The resulting

polynomial may be used to extrapolate the data.

When a series of measurements of a process is treated as a

time series, trend estimation is the application of statistical

techniques to make and justify statements about trends in

the data.

Data regression analysis is a technique used for the

modelling and analysis of numerical data consisting of

values of a dependent variable (response variable) and of

one or more independent variables (explanatory variables).

Linear Regression, y = a(x) + b

Non-Linear Regression, log(y) = log (a) + x*log (b)

STATISTICAL MOELS USED FOR FORECASTING

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Prévision is a culmination of the collective endeavour of SITM students with 1500 man hours of efforts put in by them. The student forecast team is guided by the SITM faculty and some of our esteemed alumni. It is the only effort of its kind in the telecom domain at this level, which provides comprehensive coverage over various domains in the telecom sphere.

A time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times, spaced at (often uniform) time intervals. Time series analysis comprises of methods that attempt to understand such time series. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to forecast future events based on known past events: to forecast future data points before they are measured.

METHODOLOGY

Disclaimer

In no event shall Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune, hereafter referred to as SITM, be liable for any indirect, punitive, incidental, special

or consequential damages arising out of or in any way with any content (or any material provided here under) whether biased or on contract, tort, strict

liability or otherwise even if SITM has been advised of the possibility of the damages.

Note to readers: The financial year for India is taken from April to March, whereas for rest of the world, the financial year is taken from January to

December.

© 2013, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management

All rights reserved. This publication is the sole property of SITM. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the

written approval of SITM.

5PILLARS OF PREVISION

PILLARS OF PREVISION`

„Prevision Pioneers

‚Alumni Mentors

‚Industry Mentors

‚Faculty Mentor (Statistics)

Kundan Das - Citrix

Rahul Sharma - Oracle

Aniruddha Harne - Tech Mahindra Ltd.

Parth Shah - Capgemini

Abeer Verma - Accenture

L. Kishan Chand - Airtel

Shrikrishna Sumant - Deloitte Haskins & Sells

Anu Peisker - Deloitte Haskins & Sells

Dr. K.S.S. Iyer

(Hon. Adjunct Professor)

‚Faculty In Charge

‚Student In Charge

‚Student In Charge (Technology)

‚Student In Charge (Statistics)

‚Student Editor

‚Design Team

Giri Hallur

Faculty (Telecom)

Nikhil A. Agarwal

Saishanker Teli

Anagha Joshi

Vineet Chachra

Ankita Singh

Swati Jain

Disha Puri

Sanket Deshpande

Aditya Basu

Saikamal Paradi

Gesu Shrivastava

Nikhhil Narula

Tanu Agarwal

6

PILLARS OF PREVISION`

‚Student Teams

‚Indian Telecom

‚Economy

‚Global Telecom

‚Telecom Technologies

‚Telecom Software

Sanchit Rajadhyaksha

Shivam Satnani

Roshni Madhusudan

Kriti Gupta

Pragati Jain

Vineet Chachra

Deepanker Ray

Kailash Nath Pandey

Sumit Deshmukh

Tejas Kawli

Arpita Santra

Anuradha Acharya

Varun Pandhi

‚Student Teams

‚Communication Infrastructure

‚Consumer Electronics

‚Broadband

‚VAS & Mobility

‚Special Feature

Sumit Mathur

Prasad Rane

Yashesh Amichandwala

Shrinivas Jadhav

Arnab Majumdar

Avinash Patra

Ankita Singh

Sanket Deshpande

Saishanker Teli

Aditya Basu

Disclaimer

In no event shall Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management, Pune, hereafter referred to as SITM, be liable for any indirect, punitive, incidental, special

or consequential damages arising out of or in any way with any content (or any material provided here under) whether biased or on contract, tort, strict

liability or otherwise even if SITM has been advised of the possibility of the damages.

Note to readers: The financial year for India is taken from April to March, whereas for rest of the world, the financial year is taken from January to

December.

© 2013, Symbiosis Institute of Telecom Management

All rights reserved. This publication is the sole property of SITM. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the

written approval of SITM.

PILLARS OF PREVISION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYINDIAN TELECOM

ECONOMY

GLOBAL TELECOM

The Indian Telecom Industry had experienced sluggish

growth during the period from 2008-2012. The year, 2013,

was attributed to the deactivation of inactive subscribers in

VLR that delayed the problem of scarcity of the numbering

resources in the country. Now, the service providers are

focusing more towards rural market (Tele-density: 41.37%)

for voice services. In urban segments, the operators are using

data services as their primary source of revenue. The

proposed deployment LTE and legalization of VOIP

interconnectivity to PSTN/PLMN has strengthened the case

further. However, lack of affordable LTE enabled phones in the

market is restraining the mass scale roll-out of 4G. 3G

services have taken off with easy availability of affordable 3G

enabled phones and low data tariff offerings. The approval of

100% FDI in telecom sector, shall help in achieving the

objectives of 100% rural teledensity with 600 mn broadband

connections by 2020, defined in the NTP 2012.

The Global Economy is going through a period of uncertainty

with Central banks around the world focusing on containing

inflation within the acceptable levels. Growth in US is

expected to be positive in contrast with Europe which is

struggling with poor fiscal consolidation and export

performance. The emerging economies, primarily the BRICS

nations, are expected to achieve sluggish growth, much

below their performance in preceeding years. In the current

economic scenario, India is facing the challenge of

depreciating Rupee value, increasing current account deficit

and high inflation. In the Middle East and North African

regions, the ongoing political transitions and uncertain socio-

economic conditions have negatively influenced the growth

towards economic development. However, the oil export from

the MENA region is expected to reduce as the global oil

demand has weakened due to the prevailing overall

worldwide economic slowdown.

The global telecom industry on a broader perspective

presents a common pattern of consumer behavior where the

customers are inclined towards the use of smart phones. The

telecom service providers in the midst of intense competition

with lower ARPUs are investing heavily in infrastructure for

deploying bandwidth intensive services including 4G/LTE in

order to grab the first mover advantage.

7EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Revenue from voice calls is dropping across the globe, while

the increasing usage of data is offsetting the loss. Revenue

from data is on rise in Canada with the introduction of

technologies like HSPA+ networks. Intense price war in

France prevails and ARPU is expected to decrease more than

10% in next fiscal year. Globally, the fixed-line telephone

subscribers are expected to decrease both in developing and

developed countries. Global Mobile penetration has reached

91.2 % and is expected to reach 96.2% in FY 2013-14. Mobile

broadband penetration has reached 22.1 % and is expected

to reach 29.5 % in FY 2013-14.

Rising data traffic along with emerging need for high quality

user experience has led to growth of 3G & LTE globally.

Increase in no. of SMEs, rise of convergence and cost cutting

initiatives by operators has led to rise of MPLS in India.

Though security is a major concern with cloud computing,

growth rate of IT services & minimal CAPEX associated with

cloud has led to increased adoption of cloud computing by

the IT industry. The major growth enablers for operators,

VoLTE, RCS & M2M services are rising steadily due to IPv6

adoption by enterprises worldwide. WiMAX, being a green

field technology, is being cannibalized by LTE deployment.

MPLS, IMS and Cloud Computing are expected to fuel the

growth of Telecom Market worldwide.

Triple play services over broadband are expected to drive

software infrastructure demand for activation of services.

Mobile operating systems and applications market has

doubled its revenue size with increasing penetration of

smartphones. Competition among the CSPs is bringing new

growth prospects for software vendors. As operators are

putting greater emphasis on creating rich systems

augmented with wide spread cloud based Business

Intelligence systems, telecom software market is expected to

grow substantially.

The Government's decision to allow 2G spectrum sharing

has helped the operators to optimize their revenues. On

contrary, the prohibition on 3G spectrum sharing has been

challenged by the operators in Supreme Court. The tenancy

ratio is expected to increase as the operators are reluctant to

invest heavily in tower rollout due to rising debt .

TELECOM TECHNOLOGIES

TELECOM SOFTWARE

COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE

The colossal growth in digital data and bandwidth intensive

applications has triggered the growth of data centers,

structured cabling, and enterprise network equipment

industry. VSAT market is expected to witness enormous

growth owing to the growing BFSI sector. The demand for

broadband connectivity is expected to increase optical fibre

deployment.

The Consumer Electronics Industry is experiencing radical

change with consumer's interest shifting towards portable

multi-functional devices. The increasing demand is expected

to show tremendous rise in global shipments of

smartphones and tablets. The regulatory mandate for

digitization of cable TV has triggered an increase in the sales

of set top boxes. Smart TVs with their integrated internet

capabilities and high picture quality are witnessing increase

in market share in the flat panel TV category. Smart Watches

and Smart Glasses are the next big tech products after the

revolution of smartphones.

The Government's investment in rural broadband across

India is expected to play an important role in growth of

broadband subscribers in India. Unified licensing scheme

proposed by DoT has been welcomed by the new entrants.

DSL is expected to face intense competition from wireless

technologies resulting into lowering of tariff rates. FTTH is

being deployed in partnership with infrastructure providers.

Roll-out of wireless STBs is expected to increase the

demand for IPTV services.

CONSUMER ELECTRONICS

BROADBAND

VAS & MOBILITY

SPECIAL FEATURE - NFC : NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION

The contribution of VAS to the revenue generated by

operators has been observed to be risen significantly in the

recent past. M-VAS revenue is expected to reach ̀ 395 bn by

2014. Increase in adoption of M-banking & M-commerce

services and network neutral data cards services are

expected to be the major revenue streams for operators.

Mobile Phone is now becoming a major source of

entertainment for people and m-entertainment is set to

revolutionize the entertainment industry. Advertising through

mobile has provided advertisers greater reachability and is

expected to reach $ 18.68 billion in FY 2013-14. However,

services like m-Health, m-Agriculture and m-Governance

require more initiatives from the all the stakeholders to

increase penetration.

Near field communication (NFC) is a new short range

wireless connectivity technology which would revolutionize

the world of contactless transactions and payments. NFC

operates on the principle of Radio Frequency that uses

magnetic field induction to facilitate communication between

electronic devices in close proximity. The benefits include

easy convergence with existing technologies and simplifying

the configuration needed to pair two devices. NFC

deployment have certain shortcomings, such as lack of trust

from the consumers, change in infrastructure required at the

Point of Sale and no standardization of NFC chips. Mutual co-

operation amongst the Financial Institutions, merchants,

device manufacturers and operators is expected to act as a

foundation in acceptance of NFC technology. The Financial

Institutions are expected to drive the demand for NFC

applications in India whereas the telecom operators are

expected to only support the ecosystem as an enabler.

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SITM ANNUAL TELECOM FORECAST 2013

INDEX

10Indian Telecom

14Economy

PAG

E

PAG

E

Telecom Technologies

28PAG

E

Global Telecom

PAG

E

Telecom Software

34PAG

E

Communication Infrastructure

40PAG

E

Consumer Electronics

45PAG

E

Broadband

51PAG

E

VAS and Mobility

56PAG

E

Special Feature - NFC

61PAG

E

20

INDIAN TELECOM

Sanchit Rajadhyaksha | Shivam Satnani

Student Team

10 INDIAN TELECOM

SCOPE

SUBSCRIBER BASE & TELEDENSITY

This vertical gives a statistical viewpoint on the wireless and fixed-line telecommunications market in India. It encompasses the business scenario of 2G, 3G and LTE technologies. The operator as well as the Government's stand on spectrum refarming has been discussed. It forecasts values for key parameters such as fixed and mobile subscribers, urban and rural teledensity, MNP and NLD-ILD revenue.

A drastic decline in the subscriber base of nearly 83 mn (from 951 mn to 867.8 mn) can be attributed to the deactivation of inactive subscribers in VLR. This action of the Telcos was in response to DoT's policy of delinking of quantum of spectrum allocated from the subscriber base. This has, for now, resulted in the easing of the problem of scarcity of the numbering resources in the country.

PARAMETER

CURRENTSTATISTICSFY 2012-13

PRÉVISION

FORECASTS FOR

FY 2013-14

The subscriber base is likely to increase in future in view of the shift of focus of the operators from the excessively penetrated urban market (current teledensity: 145.6%) to low penetrated rural market (current teledensity: 41.37%). Rural subscriber base and teledensity is expected to show a gradual increase driven by availability, awareness among the consumers and affordability of the services.

Mobile Subscriber Base

Rural Tele-density

Fixed-Line Subscriber Base

Overall Tele-density

Urban Tele-density

Total Telecom Revenue

ARPM (GSM)

ARPM (CDMA)

867.8 mn

30.21 mn

73.32%

41.14%

146.96%

` 2136.7 bn

` 0.47

` 0.49

902 mn

29 mn

76.57%

48.50%

158.95%

` 2353.6 bn

` 0.47312

` 0.46125

11

The reduction in 3G & 4G data tariffs, availability of low priced 3G enabled handsets from local manufacturers, increased awareness and adoption of social media & OTT apps are bringing forth changes in the usage pattern from the traditional voice services to an incremental adoption of bandwidth intensive data services.The various measures taken by the service providers to leverage the benefits of 3G and 4G technologies include investments in infrastructure Radio Access, backhaul as well as Wi-Fi followed by data offers bundled with smartphones. The rise in the voice tariff is impacting the industry positively not only by increasing revenues but also by gradually ending the prolonged period of price-led competition during 2008-2012 period that eroded profitability and weakened balance sheets.With the competitive intensity abating and data traffic surging, ARPM may consolidate as was visible in the recent financial results of Telecom operators. Indian telecom operators are trying to cut corners by implementing a cut in channel commissions and promotions in order to increase revenues. The move will help the top telecom operators to increase revenue per minute (RPM), effectively adding to the realizable rate and margins.

Key Drivers:

• Shifting focus to the rural sector• Increased demand in new technologies• Scheduled launch of new LTE operators and network

expansion of existing ones

3G

The 3G spectrum auction, held in 2010, was acclaimed as the most successful auction ever for the government. It added ` 677 bn to the exchequer. To push 3G services, telecom companies have been consistently reducing 3G tariffs. 3G traffic grew 200% in FY 2012, predominantly after the massive tariff cuts in May 2012. The data usage for 3G stands at around 400 MB per user per month, which is around four times that of a 2G data user.

The recent reduction of 50% in 3G tariffs by some operators will further drive up the adoption of 3G services. Operators are trying to induce shifting of the high end 2G customers to 3G to assist freeing up of their 2G spectrum which can thus be employed for 2G services in rural India. The launch of applications such as Whatsapp, Wechat, LINE with services including messaging, free voice chatting have driven the telecom operators to aggressively improve their data services. The Government recently provided the Unified License (UL) guidelines which allows roaming pacts but does not allow new customer acquisition in those areas where operators do not hold any spectrum. However, UL does allow UL licensees to offer VOIP and interconnectivity with PSTN/Mobile Network.Recent market trends also indicate a huge increase in smartphone sales. We believe that telcos could benefit from the subsequent increase in data usage when customers upgrade to smartphones. However there are many areas where companies need to improve such as Quality of Service (QoS), lack of adequate VAS content (especially in vernacular languages) and widespread 3G coverage.

Key Drivers:

• Availability of low cost Smartphones• Attractive 3G data tariffs• Localization of mobile content• Customer awareness and improved user experience• Network coverage and quality• Increased awareness & usage of Social Networking among subscribers.


Bharti 21.79%

Vodafone 17.78%

Reliance 14.35%Idea 14.22%

BSNL 11.27%

Tata 7.50%

Aircel 6.94%

Unitech 3.68%

Sistema 1.16%

Others 1.31%

Market Share of Mobile Subscribers Base (Q4,2012-2013)

CURRENT STATISTICSFY 2012-13

PRÉVISION FORECAST FOR FY 2013-14

Aircel 3.57%TTL 7.14%

BSNL / MTNL10.71%

3G Subscribers (In millions) FY '13

Vodafone 11.8%

Idea 18.21%Airtel 22.86%

RCOM 25.71%

PRÉVISION

INDIAN TELECOM

Subscriber base: 28 mn

3G subscriber base expected to rise with tariff cuts being the main driver

12 INDIAN TELECOM

4G/LTE

CURRENT STATISTICS

FY 2012-13PRÉVISION FORECASTS

FOR FY 2013-14

Lack of availability of affordable 4G TD-LTE compatible handsets, India-specific band of 2.3 GHz, limited coverage, lack of 4G-centric applications & content, are the reasons for slow growth of 4G in India. Another challenge is the non-availability of roll-out ready VoLTE standard for voice-centric Indian market. In the absence of satisfactory performance of VoLTE, incumbent Telco can use legacy network for Circuit Switched Fall Back(CSFB), however, this option is ruled out for a greenfield operator. Moreover, spectrum sharing across 4G and 2G is prohibited. However as per the new Unified license, 4G operators can offer 2G voice by paying 2G entry fee. This will drive faster LTE roll-out as 4G operators can now do CSFB by using spectrum of incumbents. With two of the 4G operators applying for a 2G license, this seems to be the way forward.

With Doordarshan switching to digital transmission in 2017, a portion of the band of 470 - 582 MHz can also be allocated to LTE in future. Thus, providing larger bandwidths to the operators for better service. Mi-Fi, the wireless router which acts as mobile hot spot, will help in greater penetration of 4G by extending its reach to all non 4G compatible devices through WiFi. India has shown an inclination towards LTE-TDD (offered in the upper 2 GHz spectrum range) which is preferred by the Chinese players as compared to LTE-FDD (offered in the sub 2 GHz spectrum), adopted by US and European nations. The non-compliance between spectrum and technology leads to ecosystem challenges such as device incompatibility that hinders mass production of 4G enabled handsets. Moreover due to the short time between the launch of 3G and LTE, it is not easy to convince the consumer to buy one over the other. Hence only 4G service providers are trying to increase their customer base by offering discounts on data packs.New pan-India operators are likely to enter the market with 4G services by the end of 2013. With developments such as the proposed investment in some smaller LTE players by Internet/Social media companies, the much needed capex requirement will be served thus leading to faster roll-outs. With 4G set to make an impact and rise in the penetration of smart phones, it is expected that the

growth rate of the Mobile VAS (MVAS) market will see a substantial increase. Also the growing demand of high speed internet coupled with price effective devices coming up, it is expected that 4G subscriber base will increase exponentially.

Key Drivers:

„Increased penetration of data based products

„Reduction in prices of data plans with intense competition

„Demand for affordable high speed data services

„Proposed investments from Internet/Social media

companies in smaller LTE players.

„Possibility of CSFB by sharing 2G spectrum to offer

traditional voice on the LTE network.

The total revenue for NLD market stood at ̀ 318 bn in FY '13

as compared to ` 292.06 bn in FY '12, showing a positive

growth. Although the telecom sector has faced stringent

regulatory changes which has had a direct impact on

'Subscriber Acquisition' and 'Value added services'.

Despite the increasing revenue, the profit margin is very low

due to intense competition. The DoT guidelines for the

Unified Licensing say that all telecom companies will have

to pay a license fee of 8 per cent on the annual revenues

from telecom services on the expiry of their current license.

This may further burden the telcos who are already facing

immense pressure due to the entry of the ISP providers in

the VoIP market. This is where 4G could hamper the voice-

driven (voice revenues amount to 80% of total mobile

revenues) Indian telecom market.The ILD market will

continue to face pressure due to the OTT and VoIP players

who are offering services at a very low rate.

The ILD market will continue to face pressure due to the OTT

and VoIP players who are offering services at a very low

rate. Moreover, Unified Licensees can offer VOIP and

interconnectivity with PSTN/Mobile Network, which was

illegal earlier. This factor could serve as an enabler for OTTs

affecting the ILD revenues negatively.

NLD/ILD

CURRENT STATISTICS

FY 2012-13PRÉVISION FORECASTS

FOR FY 2013-14

PRÉVISIONSITM ANNUAL TELECOM FORECAST 2014

Launched in Bangalore, Kolkata, Pune and Chandigarh

Current Subscriber base: 15000

Rise in subscriber base is

expected with expansion

of services and introduction

of price effective 4G

enabled phones

Current NLD Revenue

` 318 bn

Current ILD Revenue

` 122 bn

Expected to cross

` 330.4 bn

Expected to cross

` 128.9 bn

13

The hike in the fee caused by the DOT recommendations

might further pressurize the Operators. The current need

emphasizes upon opening up additional options such as

VAS services to increase the profit margins as well as

promote Telco-OTT Partnerships to build new business

models.

Key Drivers:

MNP was launched PAN India in Jan 2011. The current

number of MNP requests stand at 29.39 mn which is

expected to increase Y-O-Y. There are 2 MNP service

providers (MNPSP's) presently catering to 11 service areas

including Jammu & Kashmir wherein the porting time for all

service areas is 7 days and for J&K it is 15 days.MNP has

become the biggest challenge for the operators because in

addition to new subscribers they have to maintain the

services and tariff offers for the existing subscribers, this

requires extra investments in infrastructure and planning.

The subscribers are benefited with MNP service, as they

have the choice of keeping their existing number, at a

minimal cost (Ceiling of ̀ 19 as porting charges). The MNP

facility is only available within the licensed service areas

(LSA), but as per the provisions in the NTP 2012 regarding

“One Nation-Full Mobile Number Portability, TRAI

recommended MNP across LSAs. This is beneficial for the

subscribers as they can keep only one number which they

can port anywhere in India.

Key Drivers:

Spectrum re-farming is the process of redeploying

spectrum from available users and re-allocating it to

others. The spectrum re-farming was done for GSM (1800

MHZ) and CDMA (800 MHZ) in Nov 2012.

MNP

SPECTRUM RE-FARMING

The CDMA auctions were cancelled as there were no

bidders, and in GSM the blocks of 1.25 MHz frequency from

1800MHz band were available for auctioning. But allocation

of 1.25MHz was seen as wastage of the bandwidth and

scarce natural resource. Thus, due to lack of alignment

between spectrum allocations and charging approach,

operators ended up paying higher Spectrum Usage Charge

compared to competitors. All this lead to poor response in

the 2013 spectrum auctions. MTS India was the only bidder

for 800 MHZ.

Spectrum refarming is expected be done in 900 MHz band

this year. Operators will have to participate in the bidding

process in case they chose to retain 2.5 MHz of 900MHz

band. Government has decided to impose a one-time fee on

operators who hold a spectrum above contractual

spectrum. Operators opposed this because on losing the

bid they have to invest more in 1800 MHz to provide same

quality of service as provided in 900MHz. A competitive

force defining the price of the spectrum might be a suitable

alternative to remove these constraints. Cheaper the

spectrum; higher the competition; better for the operator

and subscriber. Spectrum refarming for broadband within

the next 10 years opens up newer revenue streams

especially for mobile broadband and 3G technology.

Key Drivers:

The Indian telecom industry is undergoing a

transformation. Almost all the operators are shifting their

focus from voice to data as their primary source of revenue.

As an alternative to the saturated urban market, telecom

operators are venturing into the high potential yet minimally

tapped rural market. Positive government regulations such

as 100% FDI in Telecom and a successful 3G auction shall

help improve the sentiments of foreign players about the

scenario of Indian Telecom Market. With surging data traffic

and drivers like increase in 4G enabled handsets, legalizing

of voice over internet and rising rural penetration, the Indian

Telecom Industry maybe on its way up the growth ladder.

CONCLUSION


INDIAN TELECOM

„ Operator's services and tariff values will drive the MNP

requests in future.

„ MNP requests are expected to rise significantly as the

government is planning to allow nationwide

MNP services.

„ Increased demand for roaming solutions for both

National and International users.

„ New avenues opening up because of Cooperation

between the OTT players and Telecom service providers

„ Price of the auctioned spectrum may decide the

tariff andservices.

„ Proper allocation of blocks may encourage

participation in bidding process.

ECONOMY

Roshni Madhusudhan | Kriti Gupta

Student Team

14 ECONOMY

SCOPE

INDIA

This vertical provides an insight into the global economic scenario by analyzing past and current economic indicators and performing statistical forecasting on them. The economic scenario of countries is captured through various parameters by identifying the key drivers guiding the world economy for the next fiscal year.

inflation rate. GDP hit a decade low of 4.96% in FY 2012-13 on account of poor performance in agricultural, manufacturing and mining sectors. The Government is trying to recover the Indian Economy using key drivers such as reduction in CAD, controlling fuel prices, regulating depreciation of rupee value against foreign currencies and boosting growth in manufacturing sector. World economy is witnessing improving economic conditions of US and Euro Zone giving rise to FDI opportunities in Telecom, Retail and Airline Industry in India. Owing to all these reasons Indian GDP is expected to increase in the FY 2013-14.

‡ Decrease in Private Consumption‡ Weak performance of agricultural, mining and manufacturing sector‡ Easing FDI in Telecom, Retail and Airline Industry‡ Depreciation of Rupee in FOREX market‡ Increase in credit flow to India due to SLR cut by RBI

Key drivers:CURRENT STATISTICS

FY 2012-13PRÉVISION FORECAST

FOR FY 2013-14

GDP

Indian GDP, currently, is affected by continuously increasing

GDP: 4.96%Inflation: 7.6%CAD: 4.8%

GDP: 5.2 - 5.6%Inflation: 7.0 - 7.5%CAD: 4.5 - 4.8%

15

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

EUROPEAN UNION

GDP

Inflation

CAD has reduced from 5.9 percent of GDP to 4.9 percent of GDP in the current year. The main reasons for decline in fiscal deficit are the additional tax revenues and high savings on expenditure. The Government of India is trying to frame its policies to achieve 4.8% CAD. The Government is increasing the import duty on gold and silver to contain FOREX outflow and also has announced certain measures towards ease of access to overseas borrowings to decrease CAD. The consumption driven Indian economy has high subsidy bills which might need to be eliminated as a measure to reduce CAD.

Key drivers:

‡ Degrading Rupee v/s Dollar Performance‡ Increase in Import Duty on Gold and Silver‡ Subsidies by the government

The economic conditions are expected to stabilize as global economy has started recovering; supported majorly by the developing nations. The European Union is expected to have a positive growth rate driven by external demand. Improved situation in the financial market and decline in the interest rates are expected to improve the economic scenario of EU. Net Exports are expected to serve as main drivers of growth as domestic demand is expected to be stagnant. Private consumption and investment are expected to increase. The continuous policy efforts are expected to help prevent the renewed intensification of sovereign debt crisis.

The inflation rates are declining due to decrease in Consumer Price Index attributed by energy and food prices. However, the impact of increased indirect taxes and administration costs are expected to stabilize inflation overall.

Key Drivers:

‡ Net-Export acting as the main driver of growth‡ Decrease in Current-Account Deficit‡ Persistent policy efforts easing down the Sovereign debt crisis

The increasing debt and decreasing primary fiscal surplus of Brazil had weakening effect on the economy in 2012. The GDP witnessed a drastic decrease from 2.7% in FY 2011-12 to 0.9% in FY 2012-13. The industrial output had also decreased resulting in economic slowdown. FIFA World Cup 2014 is expected to serve as a ray of hope in the prevalent scenario. Huge CAPEX invested in infrastructure in 2012, for World Cup, are expected to provide high rewards in FY 2013-14.Brazil is an export oriented country, having vast agricultural resources. It is a major exporter of forest products and ranks high in export of coffee, sugar and soya beans. However, the increasing trade deficit has put a negative effect on Brazil's export. The lowering of interest rates of Central Bank is a key reason behind the increase in inflation rates due to decrease in currency value of Brazil.

Key Drivers:

‡ Football World Cup Preparations in FY 2013-14‡ The increase in fuel prices and heavy taxation on imports

The country is trying to recover from the financial slowdown

caused by recession in the EU and the labor unrest in mining

sector.

BRAZIL

SOUTH AFRICA








ECONOMY

GDP: 0.4%

Inflation: 2.6%

Unemployment: 10.5%

GDP: 0.5 - 0.7%

Inflation: 2.2 - 2.5%

Unemployment: 9.5 - 10%

GDP: 0.9%

Inflation: 5.4%

GDP: 2.0 - 2.5%


GDP: 2.5%

Inflation: 5.4%

GDP: 2.4 - 2.7%


16

The manufacturing and mining industry has also shown a decline. The current account deficit for South Africa is more than 6% of the GDP. Majorly known for exports of minerals, precious stones and citrus fruits. South African export market is facing challenges as the exports to Germany and other EU markets have decreased.Inflation rates in South Africa are expected to increase due to rise in price of educational and health services. The Rand has depreciated by 16% against USD in FY 2012-13.

Key drivers:

‡ High administration and electricity costs‡ Increase in unemployment index‡ Decreasing trade with EU countries‡ Decreasing Interest rates by banks

Except for Nigeria and South Africa, most of the Sub Saharan countries have experienced growth in GDP. Subsidies in Energy sector helped in the overall growth of economy. Moreover, the increasing domestic demand has initiated many industrial reforms.

Key Drivers:

‡ Low rate of geopolitical tension‡ Increase in natural resource exports

Chinese economy has seen a steady growth of 10% per annum in the last three decades. The major contributor to this is the robust growth of manufacturing sector, perpetual demand of Chinese goods and government's investment friendly policy which have also resulted in a perennial FDI inflow.

SUB SAHARAN COUNTRIES

CHINA

GDP

The export driven Chinese economy may face challenges in maintaining the growth because the demand from relevant countries is expected to decrease owing to the recovery stage of global economy. Factors such as rising wage rates, lower growth rate of working age population (from 2.5 % in 2003 to 1% currently) are expected to weaken the economy further. More than 80% of the work-force is currently employed and more than half of the population has migrated.

The inflation is expected to increase due to increase in per capita income of the Chinese population and increase in property rates. In China, the inflation rate is determined by the CPI (consumer price index) where food prices account for about 36%; as a result increasing food prices are expected to add to the increasing inflation rate. However, timely response of Chinese Central Banks is expected to keep the inflation rate under check.

Key Drivers:

‡ Decreasing exports from China to developed countries‡ Decreasing FDI‡ Economic reforms

The growth of Oil exports are expected to be moderate due to scaling down of oil production caused by uncertain global demand. The slow pace of development in the Arab Region can be attributed to protracted political transition and uncertain socio-economic conditions.

Key Drivers:

‡ Increase in Oil exports ‡ Uncertainty in socio-economic conditions ‡ Financial Aid from international communities

Inflation

MENA

USA










ECONOMY

GDP: 4.4 - 4.9%

Inflation: 5.5 - 6%

GDP: 5.1% GDP: 4.9 - 5.2%

GDP: 7.8%

Inflation: 1.8%

GDP: 7.5 - 8.0%


GDP: 2.2% GDP: 2.5 - 3.0%

GDP: 4.3%

Inflation: 6.6%

17

As US economy has not yet completely recovered from the global slowdown, sequestration initiated in 2013 is expected to continue in 2014. Growth rate has been trimmed due to factors such as European austerity measures, Chinese slowdown and across-the-board sequester budget cuts. Democrats are presently focusing on the deficit reduction and expenditure cuts.

Key Drivers:

‡ Recovery in Property rates‡ Increase in energy consumption‡ Stabilization of US Currency

With the recovering EU economic scenario, the Russian GDP is expected to show stagnant decline due to the downward trend seen in domestic investments. However, the private consumption is expected to show similar trends due to low unemployment rate and increasing wages. Decrease in Oil Imports from Arab countries, are expected to induce decline in oil prices in Russia.

In FY 2012-13, inflation rate had increased due to the occurrence of droughts in parts of Russia influencing increase in food prices. But, due to firm monetary policies followed by Central Bank of Russia, the inflation is expected to come down in 2014.

Key Drivers:

‡ Increase in Private consumption‡ Decrease in Oil imports‡ Firm monetary policies against inflation

RUSSIA

GDP

Inflation

UK

GOLD

SILVER

The Service Sector is the major contributor to the GDP. Currently, UK is recovering from the recession of 2008 and shows healthy signs for the next financial year. The increase in oil prices and interest rates are expected to influence rise in inflation.

Key Drivers:

‡ Contribution by service and manufacturing sector‡ Increase in interest rates‡ Increase in Oil Prices

In FY 2012-13, the Gold market went through a period of great volatility as the prices had plunged from $ 1798 to $ 1202 with 35% fall in 3 quarters. The volatility in price is attributed to varied demand across the world in developed and few developing countries. Transition in emerging markets and prospects of lower growth in Chinese GDP has reduced the demand of gold in China. Countries like India are implementing policies on increasing import duty on gold to reduce CAD that are curbing the nation's demand for bullion and Gold jewelry. However, countries including Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey increased their gold reserves during FY 2012-13. Developed economies of US, EU and UK, recovering from recession, are expected to show positive signs in improving the price of gold in forthcoming year.












ECONOMY

Inflation: 1.8%

Unemployment: 8.1%

Fiscal Deficit: 8.7%


Unemployment: 7.4 - 7.8%

Fiscal Deficit: 8.5 - 9.0%GDP: 0.3%

Inflation: 2.8%

GDP: 0.6 - 0.8%


(Per Troy ounce in $)

$ 1326


$ 1340 - $ 1540


$ 21.11


$ 24.95 - $ 28.95

GDP: 3.4%

Inflation: 6.5%

GDP: 3.0 - 3.2%


18

Global Industrial production, which contributes nearly 50% of the total consumption of silver, witnessed a decline in growth rate by 3.9% in FY 2012-13. The weakening of these factors has resulted in a reduced price of $ 21.11 per troy ounce of silver. Moreover, gold being considered as the primary driver for silver price, an increase in the investment demand for gold drives the demand for silver raising the prices higher. However, as the demand for Gold and Silver are expected to increase owing to expected recovery of Global Economy from recession, the price of silver is expected to increase for FY 2013-14. Also, rise in oil price influences rise in price of silver as mining of silver is an energy intensive process.

Key Drivers:

‡ Decline in Industrial Production‡ Increase in demand for Gold‡ Increase in Oil prices

In FY 2012-13, United States, world's top oil producer and consumer had shown decline in their annual crude oil consumption from 6,916,552 thousand barrels to 6,790,673 thousand barrels. But the consumption of crude oil in developing economies including China and India is continuously rising leading to rise in world liquid fuel consumption by 0.8 million barrels/day in FY 2012-13 itself. On the other side, increasing supply of crude oil from non-OPEC countries may help in reducing the price over long term. However, the price may also see a drastic increase due to increasing tension in the Middle-East affected by Syrian conflicts.

Key Drivers:

‡ Uncertainty of demand in EU countries‡ Strong performance of U.S. currency‡ Threat from Syrian Crisis

CRUDE OIL

RUPEE V/S DOLLAR

Due to decreasing inflow of FDIs and increasing outflow of FIIs from India, Rupee value has come down to a lifetime low of ₹ 63.13 against USD value in the end of FY 2012-13. It

can be majorly attributed to the record setting performance of US equities and improvement in the labor market in US. Also, the rising import bills owing to high gold imports in India have resulted into depreciation of Rupee value.

In 2012, Euro Zone had faced challenges from debt crisis due to which the value of Euro had slipped to $ 1.2045. The measures taken to address the crisis were implemented at the beginning of FY 2012-13 that helped in the recovery of Euro from $ 1.285 to $ 1.311. However, the US Federal Reserve Bank, unlike European Central Bank, is planning to implement stimulating monetary policies that are expected to appreciate US currency.

In FY 2012-13, the value of USD v/s Yen had appreciated from ¥ 79.76 to ¥ 97.94 due to increase in growth rate of United States that is recovering from economic slowdown. The value of Yen has depreciated approximately 20 percent in current fiscal year and is expected to decrease further considering less financial turmoil in Global Market, as Japan's Current Account Surplus is less reliant on foreign capital.

China is a huge manufacturing hub which makes it an export driven economy. As a result of this, the PBOC

EURO V/S DOLLAR

YEN V/S DOLLAR

YUAN V/S DOLLAR










ECONOMY



1 € = $ 1.24 - $ 1.30

$ 108.05 / barrel

1 € = $ 1.32

$ 87.46 - $ 95.42 / barrel

$ 1 = ¥ 97.94 $ 1 = ¥ 89.19 - ¥ 95.19

$ 1 = ¥ 5.92 - ¥ 6.32$ 1 = ¥ 6.13

$ 1 = ` 65.5 - ` 69.5$ 1 = ` 63.13

19

(People's Bank of China)takes various measures to stabilize the value of Yuan against USD. The value of USD v/s Yuan has reduced from ¥ 6.3096 to ¥ 6.13 in the current fiscal year which is considered to be stable. Thus, the value of Yuan is expected to be stable for the forthcoming FY 2013-14.

The improvement in US economy has not shown positive

effects on the Indian economy as the quantitative easing

CONCLUSION

withdrawal by US has depreciated the value of Rupee and

made imports costlier. India is expected to face challenges

from depreciating value of Rupee and maintain growth at

the same time. The US is expected to show stable growth in

global market. The European Banks are facing challenges in

implementing strong monetary policies due to which

recovery from economic slowdown is expected to be

sluggish. Economic uncertainty prevails in major

economies around the world.


ECONOMY

GLOBAL TELECOM

Pragati Jain | Vineet Chachra | Deepanker Ray Kailash Nath Pandey | Sumit Deshmukh

Student Team

20 GLOBAL TELECOM

SCOPE

EGYPT

Global Telecom provides an insight into the diversification of telecom business scenario and the prevailing practices in continents like South East Asia, Europe, Africa, and Middle East & America. This vertical gives the correlation between different factors contributing to the growth of telecom ecosystem and new factors arising out of the synergy in different economic regions.

Numerous establishments have been observed when it comes to Egytian telecom industry. The fixed line subscriber base for the country declined from 9.61 mn subscribers in 2010 to 8.66 mn subscribers in Q1 of 2013. Telecom Egypt (single fixed line operator) signed a MoU with Etisalat to launch an integrated license in response to the declining fixed line subscriber base.. Wireless subscriber base has risen from 83.43 mn in 2011 to 94.57 mn in May 2013. Operators are investing heavily in 3G infrastructure and the market for 3G has seen a significant growth since 2007.

AFRICA

This can be attributed to the saturation of 2G market and declining ARPU. The smartphone penetration reached 37% in Dec. 2012 which depicted a robust market for the smartphones in the coming year. The National broadband plan “eMisr” launched in July 2012 with an objective of increasing the broadband penetration and provide employment opportunities (11000 jobs per year) helped increase the subscriber base to 30.36 mn in April 2013.

Many significant changes have come across the country's telecom industry. The fixed line subscriber base has seen a declining trend dropping from 4.5 mn in 2007 to 4.03 mn in 2012. Mobile penetration crossed 100% with smartphone penetration rising to 19%. This led to an increase in the wireless subscribers from 39.66 mn in 2006 to 68.39 mn in 2012. Data cost is lowering down constantly driven majorly by the increased mobile phone usage and increasing number of under-sea cables connecting sub-Saharan Africa to the rest of the world. The undersea capacity connecting South Africa is expected to reach 22 Tbps by the end of 2013.

SOUTH AFRICA

21

The current number of broadband subscribers is 7.8 mn out of which 1.1 mn are fixed broadband subscribers and 6.7 mn being wireless broadband subscribers. Operators are trying to implement innovative customer retention strategies owing to the increased competition, speculated M&A deals and infrastructure sharing deals. The government has initiated efforts to reduce the current IPTV standardization gap that exists between South Africa and the developing countries.

The telecom industry in Kenya has witnessed growth due to advent of highly significant initiations. The number of fixed line subscribers grew from 251,567 in 2012 to 248,300 in 2011 (1.3% increase) driven majorly by the increase in the wireless subscriptions. The total number of minutes recorded in the fixed line network grew by 20.3% to reach 53 mn minutes in Q3 of FY 2012-13 up from 44 mn minutes recorded during the previous quarter. The number of wireless subscriptions increased from 26.98 mn in 2011 to 30.73 mn in 2012. Mobile penetration reached 78% in 2012 with pre-paid subscribers contributing 99% of the subscriptions. The internet subscriptions increased from 7.7 mn to 8.5 mn driven by the increased data usage (34.2% population make use of mobile devices to access internet). The current broadband penetration is expected to increase by more than a factor of 11 driven by Microsoft's “4Afrika” initiative to identify opportunities in white space deployments.

Nigeria became one of the world's largest mobile market with 118.9 mn subscribers in April 2013. Nigeria recorded a teledensity of 85% in April 2013. The fixed line subscriber base reduced from 1.05 mn in 2010 to 0.39 mn in 2012. Operators have initiated efforts to identify alternative revenue streams (including 3G, mobile banking and others) and reduce OPEX by implementing infrastructure sharing as the ARPU levels are declining and increased competition due to MNP launch in 2013. LTE network roll out has already been initiated yet commercial launch is seeing barriers due to delayed frequency spectrum allocation. The internet and broadband sector is expected to grow at a significant rate owing to the increased submarine fibre optic cable network (scheduled to go love in 2013 and 2014), consolidation of ISPs.

The fixed line subscribers in UAE increased from 1,910,296 in 2012 to 2,035,929 in May 2013 with the number of fixed

KENYA

NIGERIA

UAE

MIDDLE EAST

lines per 100 currently at 24.60. The total mobile subscribers increased to 14.60 mn in May 2013 with prepaid customers contributing to 12.70 mn of the total subscription. Broadband penetration rate has increased from 11.30 % in 2012 to 12.10 % in May 2013. The fixed broadband network in the region is robust with fibre representing over a third of all fixed broadband subscriptions. Both Etisalat and DU have deployed FTTx networks to provide connectivity; thus enhancing the speed of the fixed home broadband subscriptions. Fibre networks are being used to provide broadband TV (IPTV) services, faster broadband speeds, and nascent web based Video-on-Demand (VoD) platforms for the end user.

The number of fixed line subscribers is currently 4.80 mn and is expected to reach 5.10 mn by 2016. The incumbent operator STC in the region has shifted focus to international expansion, broadband, financial performance and customer experience as part of its 2011 - 2013 strategy. The wireless subscriber base increased to 53 mn at the end of 2012. The broadband market was more competitively driven by FTTX, digitalization of the economy and many government services based on ICT infrastructure like e-government, e-health, e-education etc. LTE services were launched by operators to sustain in an intense environment of Saudi Arabia where high broadband penetration is expected to rise in the coming year.

The number of fixed line subscribers increased from 16.53 mn in 2009 to 13.80 mn in March 2013 while the wireless subscribers increased from 62 mn in 2010 to 67.60 mn in 2012 end. With an increased 3G subscriber base of 43.90 mn till 2013 Q1 FY 2013-14; mobile internet usage also increased to 24, 233 TBytes. The broadband subscriber base increased from 5.75 mn in 2008 to 16.60 mn in 2012 where postpaid subscribers contributed 7,514,958 and prepaid subscribers contributed 4,843,217 subscriptions. Mobile market has seen a significant growth with mobile penetration at 90% in 2013 and number of SMS increased from 77 mn units in 2008 to 174 mn units in March 2013.

The number of fixed line subscribers has declined from 0.56 mn in 2010 to 0.51 mn in 2012 end whereas wireless subscribers increased from 3.19 mn in 2010 to 5.50 mn in 2012 .The Government has taken concrete steps towards development of a digital economy by implementing policies for e-health and e-government, introduction of mobile number portability, refarming of GSM spectrum for LTE services and the public private partnership model to improve services and value.

SAUDI ARABIA

TURKEY

KUWAIT


GLOBAL TELECOM

22

Mobile operators are implementing innovative measures to optimize revenues from broadband offerings due to high download speeds.

Russia is one of the major telecom markets with an estimated population of 143.4 mn with 261.8 mn wireless users, SIM card penetration of 160% (due to use of multiple SIM cards), 71.73 mn mobile broadband users and 1.927 mn. IPTV adoption is expected to increase owing to the investments in fibre deployments which enhance the speed and stability of the network. The key challenges being faced by the country's telecom market include regulatory issues such as LTE spectrum and government's plan to create a single, state- controlled 4G network. Government is taking concrete steps as operators have shifted focus on the most profitable markets, rolling out overlapping infrastructure and concentrating on GSM and 3G rather than 4G. The Russian regulatory authorities also plan to test the country's planned MNP database by 1 December 2013; this short time frame has brought about logistical issues for the wireless players. The Smartphone market has seen an increase in the growth rate driven by the by retailers' commercial strategies to promote sales through the launch of new models in 2013. This resulted in Smartphone sale of 8.64 mn units during first quarter of 2013.

The current population of Hungary is 9.9 mn with 1.931 mn fixed line subscribers at present. The telecom market of Hungary has undergone changes driven majorly by the competition among the mobile-cellular service providers which has led to an increased mobile subscriber base of 11.3 mn in 2013. The fibre sector has recorded a significant growth in the fixed broadband sector with the number of subscribers expected to reach 0.35 mn by the end of first quarter of 2013. Smartphones contributed to 70% of total handset sales and IPV6 implementation was registered at 37.2% of the hosts.

Czech Republic is a relatively small economy with a population of 10 mn approx. The major players in the wireless and wireline sector include international players such as Telefonica O2, T-Mobile, Vodafone and UPC. The key challenges being faced by the telecom sector include market saturation, regulatory factors such as cuts to mobile termination rates and the impact of the eurozone crisis on macroeconomic performance. Smartphone penetration of 16% has been the major contributor in providing

EASTERN EUROPE

RUSSIA

HUNGARY

CZECH REPUBLIC

significant growth in the subscriber base providing increase data usage and VAS services. The number of fixed line subscribers reduced to 2.07 mn while the wireless subscriber base increases to 13.5 mn in 2013. CTU introduced number portability in 2012 and introduced new conditions related to reducing total time necessary for portion of number and extension of possibility to transfer number to cases where subscribers gave notice to existing operator before.

The wireless subscriber base increased by 5% since 2011-12, with the present number at around 107.65 million subscribers while the fixed line subscribers reduced to around 50.7 million subscribers. The advent of wireless has provided an impetus to the sale of smart phones. The launch of 4G/LTE technologies in rural areas has helped improving the ARPU at $27.09 which is better than the forecasted value of 20$ and also provided better opportunities to the operators to earn better data revenues. The broadband subscriber base witnessed a continuous increase at around 27.9 million subscribers currently, though less than the forecasted value of 32 Million. Around 2,40,000 homes are expected to be upgraded to FTTH by end of 2013. NFC is also being tested by Dortmund Volksbank which has launched NFC payments with O2 and utilizing NFC tags.

The entry of the low cost mobile operator Free Mobile has led to a price war between operators thus shifting the market dynamics. The ARPU which is currently at $48.4 is expected to decline by more than 10 per cent in the coming year due to the ultra-competitive pricing being offered in the market. The government has taken several initiatives to promote FTTH by investing heavily in the network yet a few challenges faced by the govt. include large deployment costs and long Return on Investment (ROI) period. France Telecom has collaborated with Orange to deploy FTTH in around 9 million homes by the end of 2013; thus promoting the FTTH deployment. The smartphone penetration has increased mainly due to launch of several less expensive smartphones and increased wireless subscriber base of around 62.28 million. The broadband subscriber growth remained slow despite a major growth in VoIP services with around 95% broadband subscribers now using VOIP.

The telecom sector witnessed a slow growth mainly due to slowdown in the economy, recession like conditions and decline in the population.

WESTERN EUROPE

GERMANY

FRANCE

SPAIN


GLOBAL TELECOM

23

The wireless subscriber base has reduced by 6% in 2012-12 to around 50.66 million. The broadband subscriber base witnessed a substantial growth (current subscriber base: 11.34 million) mainly due to local loop unbundling being implemented at a larger scale. The ARPU also reduced due to decreasing population, unemployment, low income-level and highly price sensitive market. The 4G service trials were conducted in 2011-12 yet the launch has been delayed majorly due to change in the current economic conditions. The deployment of FTTH has slowed down as a result forecasted figure of providing 2,70,000 homes with FTTH by end 2012 is expected to take more time to be fulfilled. Despite the adverse economic conditions, Spain has the highest number of sales for smart tablets in the world.

The wireless subscriber base grew by 7% to 97.22 million subscribers presently and the fixed line subscriber base remained stable at 21 million. The slowdown in the economy was expected to cause a decline in the ARPU which remained stable at around $29.12. However, the outlook remains bleak and the ARPU is expected to take a sharp decline in the coming year. The 3G penetration witnessed a more than expected rise with one in every 10 people using 3G. This growth can be attributed to the shift in the customer focus on adaption on new technologies. The launch of 4G/ LTE services by the end of 2013 is expected to provide better revenue opportunities and penetration of the services. A few challenges faced by the industry include high levels of competition and the slow economic growth.

The adoption of wireless technology has resulted in a decline in the fixed line subscriber base as a result the current fixed line subscribers stand at around 33 million while wireless subscribers contribute 82.2 million subscribers. The fixed line subscribers stand at around 33 million while wireless subscribers standing at 82.2 million. The ARPU has been stable at around £23. The 3G penetration has witnessed 34% Y-O-Y growth. The number of broadband subscribers has also increased to 21.3 million subscribers. 4G/LTE expected to witness major growth as many operators such as Vodafone (2600 MHz band) and O2 (1800 MHz band) are expected to launch services by the end of 2013. This is expected to be supported by FTTH being deployed at a rapid rate with an objective to cover the entire nation by 2015. United Kingdom has the 5th largest smart tablet usage but the growing competition and aggressive pricing is expected to reduce the ARPU and revenues in the coming year.

ITALY

UK

NORTH AMERICA

SOUTH AMERICA

USA

CANADA

ARGENTINA

BRAZIL

The increased usage of wireless devices with wireless subscribers reaching 310 mn bolstered by the Smartphone penetration caused the number of fixed line subscribers to reduce from around 151.6 mn in 2011-12 to around 139 mn in 2012-13. The current ARPU of $ 47.09 has increased by 4% majorly due to WIMAX deployment which is expected to reach 239 mn PPOs by early 2013.The 3G penetration stands at 69% with a subscriber baseof 208 mn subscribers in 2012. All major telecom operators are expected to launch their 4G/LTE services by mid to late 2013 thus opening alternative revenue streams. Government has taken several initiatives to assist the expansion of the telecom industry such as 20 mn dollar investment and FTTH deployment expected to cover 6 mn homes by the end of 2013.

The telecom market for the region experienced a robust growth with wireless subscriptions at 26.26 mn and ARPU of around $ 55.14. Surge in data usage has offset the poor performance in terms of revenue coming from voice usage. Regulations and the Government policies to promote broadband penetration have assisted the increase in subscriptions to reach 11.4 mn. Introduction of new data services such as HSPA+, deployment of LTE services and FTTH deployment expected to reach 3 mn homes by 2013 are driving the increase in data revenues.

The telecom market of Argentina is among the top markets with a teledensity which is the fourth highest in South America.The major telecom players involved in provisioning of services include Spain's Telefónica / Movistar (CAGR of US$4.92 billion), Italy's Telecom Argentina (CAGR of US$4.87 billion in 2012), Mexico's Claro (US$3.22 billion) and Argentina's Grupo Clarín (US$1.68 billion).The mobile penetration recorded in June 2013 was 147% with the number of subscribers increasing by 3% annually majorly due to the use of multiple SIM cards by a single subscriber. The smartphone market witnessed a significant growth with smart phone penetration at end-2012 at about 24% (World average Penetration: 15%).

The telecom market is expected to grow at a faster rate due to the Football World Cup 2014 and Olympics 2016,


GLOBAL TELECOM

24

which is also leading the growth of the overall infrastructure. Government has taken initiatives to launch commercial 4G services in the Football World Cup 2014 under which Telecom Americas (Claro) has an LTE rollout programme being implemented. The number of fixed landline subscribers has increased from 42.5 million in end of 2011 to 44 million at the end of 2012 and the mobile subscriber base has also witnessed a 1.5% increase to reach 265,741,217 in June 2013. The ARPU for the first quarter of 2013 was $19 supported by 70.9 million mobile broadband accesses (29.6% of the cell phones have mobile broadband accesses) where 63.9 million were via 3G handsets (WCDMA) and 48 thousand via 4G handsets (LTE). 3G subscriber base recorded till April 2013 contributed 63,875 subscriptions, a relatively lower number majorly due to low demand with 4G LTE networks being rolled out at a rapid rate. Vivo has planned an investment of R$480mi ($215mi) to set up 3G networks in 206 small towns across the country as a measure to penetrate into the market where services are still being used.

A telecom reform law passed in mid-2013 set up a new regulator with an objective of removing barriers to foreign investment and reducing the market share of the dominant operators. These reforms are expected to make the Mexican telecom market more competitive; thus eliminating the monopoly of TELEMAX. The number of fixed line subscriber in Mexico is 20,217,591 with a fixed line teledensity of 19% and mobile broadband subscriber base stands at 10.5 million. Auction of 700 MHz is expected to increase the data usage in 3G and 4G networks and help develop mobile broadband connectivity in rural areas of the country; thus providing telecom operators an opportunity to capitalize on emerging LTE technology, the exploitation of a range of spectrum and increase the current ARPU ($13.40; Q1, 2013).

Indonesia has been regarded as a potential market but a few challenges are being faced by the telecom market including presence of many operators, slow implementation of regulatory decisions and a range of social, political and economic issues prevailing presently. Wireless has become the dominant component within the fixed market segment since by 2012 wireless services made up 75% of total fixed line subscriber base and teledensity reaching 16% in early 2013. The mobile market has also experienced a moderate growth with a penetration of 117% in early 2013 and the number of mobile subscribers growing at an average rate of 10% annually.

MEXICO

INDONESIA

SOUTH EAST ASIA

Consumer interest has shifted towards 3G services and data usage has also increased mainly due to the significant growth in the smartphone sales. This also led to boost in internet penetration reaching 22% by the end of 2012. The Government has also initiated some major projects like that of the Palapa Ring optical fiber cable project with its value being worth $ 1.5 bn.

Hong Kong is among the leading telecom economies of the world and has developed world-class telecom infrastructure to support the dynamic market. The robust growth of the telecom industry is supported by high mobile & broadband penetration (internet contributed 6% of the GDP), technological innovation and close geographical proximity to China providing a gateway to the foreign telecom companies and equipment vendors. The fixed line subscriber base declined from 3.45 mn in April 2013 to 3.44 mn in May 2013 mainly due to increased IP telephony usage and increased mobile (230%) and broadband penetration (90% of households use broadband). The market place is characterized by increased competition due presence to 5 MSPs, 11 MVNOs and consumer base of 9.4 mn for the 3G and 4G networks. The growth is expected to be bolstered further as China Mobile plans to acquire chunks of existing 3G mobile spectrum in Hong Kong to make it the world's largest wireless network operator.

The Chinese telecommunications industry is among the largest in the world in terms of existing size and growth potential owing to country's sizeable population. The 1.18 bn mobile subscribers represent a penetration rate of 80%, with a large proportion of consumers in rural regions still untapped. The number of fixed phone users decreased by 5.24 mn from the end of 2012 while mobile phone users grew 63.73 mn in the first half of 2013 and the fixed-line Internet broadband witnessed a slow growth in the first half of 2013 (subscriber base grew by but the growth was 2.94 mn less than previous year).The mobile internet users grew by 40.12 mn or 13.8 per cent to 804 mn, with a penetration up from 67.2 percent in the same period of last year to 68.7 per cent. In the first half of 2013, China's basic telecom operators generated total revenue of ¥ 263.02 bn from traditional voice business (0.9% Y-O-Y growth) and ¥ 301.24 bn from non-voice business (17.1 per cent Y-O-Y growth).The migration from 2G to 3G networks resulted in a reduction of 12 mn 2G subscribers in Q1- 2013 and an addition of 46.8mn 3G subscribers representing 25% of the total mobile market.The Chinese Government is expected to issue 4G licenses by end-2013 which might emerge as a challenge to the fixed broadband sector.

HONG KONG

CHINA


GLOBAL TELECOM

25

JAPAN

MALAYSIA

PHILIPPINES

Japan's telecommunications sector is among the

mostactive markets with an industry size of US$ 200 bn for

the operators and annual investment of about US$ 20 bn in

networks. The robust growth of the telecom sector can be

attributed to continuous growth of VoIP, competitive 3G

segment, launch of LTE with NTT DoCoMo as the leader,

deployment of FttH services and development of digital and

mobile broadcasting. Government policies have helped

increase broadband penetration to above 70%. Smartphone

penetration is expected to emerge as a major challenge to

the traditional service revenues and declining ARPU (5.6%

decline in 2012) through IP substitution for voice and SMS.

The bundling of pay-TV with broadband Internet is expected

to drive each to grow at rates of 3.2% and 3.6%,

respectively. Fixed VoIP services are expected to overtake

circuit- switched voice revenue by 2017 with a growth rate

of 7.1%.

The Malaysian telecom market has witnessed an

exponential growth with mobile subscriber base at 41 mn,

mobile penetration of 137% and smartphone penetration of

30% (expected to reach 60% by 2015). The several

initiatives which are driving this growth include subsidies to

the youth on smartphones and popularity of tablets (current

tablet penetration: 9% expected to reach 29% in the coming

year) which has made the market competitive and driven the

launch of better models and innovative marketing practices.

These trends have reduced the tablet prices from $ 497 in

June 2012 to $ 397 in May 2013 (20% price drop). In the

broadband market, wireless subscription growth continues

to be the main driver of sales, the launch of LTE services in

2013 being expected to sustain this trend.

The growth in telecom sector has been below average due to the economy which has been relatively slow moving. The number of the fixed line and wireless subscribers has witnessed a lower growth rate with subscriptions being 4 mn and 39 mn respectively and the FTTH deployment has been at a very low pace. LTE services are being deployed and offered by both the major market players; Smart Communication and Globe Telecom. The Number of 3G subscribers has increased significantly in the last year with around 10.4 mn people using 3G. Despite broadband being available to more than 90percent homes in the country only 2.15 mn have access to it.

SINGAPORE

VIETNAM

Singapore also witnessed a decline in the fixed line users similar to many developed countries around the world. There are approximately 1.9 mn fixed line users presently. While the number of mobile subscriber have increased to 8 mn, there have being tremendous growth in telecom market in Singapore due to progressive regulation and no cap on direct or indirect foreign ownership. This growth can been seen by the increase in 3G and 4G subscriber which are 5.72 mn and 0.9 million respectively. The post-paid ARPU declined to S$ 68 and the pre-paid ARPU declined to S$19 for star hub and S $81 for Singtel. The Next Generation National Infocomm Infrastructure (Next Gen NII), Singapore's large scale project to build an island-wide broadband network, is expected to strengthen the telecom market. The market for smartphones and tablets witnessed a rising trend with smartphone penetration at 78% in 2013 and tablet penetration increasing from 31% in 2012 to 42% in 2013.This has resulted in a decrease in the use of SMS as approximately 91% users use multiple messaging services at least once each day rather than SMS. Again like most Singapore now has a penetration rate of 78 percent in 2013 pertaining to these smart-devices. Tablet penetration in Singapore has increased from 31 percent in 2012 to 42 percent in 2013. For the development of cloud computing, the government has developed the G-Cloud, which leverages on the benefits of cloud computing providing resilient computing resources to meet security and governance requirements. Agencies can currently subscribe to a full range of Infrastructure-as-a-Service for hosting Government websites and e-services. Services available for subscription include compute, storage, network, security, operating systems, middleware and databases.

Vietnam has witnessed a more robust telecom market owing to the deployment of better national infrastructure, increased subscriber base and development of better mobile market. The total number of phone subscriptions reached 148.5 mn with 93.3 per cent mobile subscriptions and 148% penetration rate; thus placing Vietnam at 8th position in the world in terms of the mobile subscription density. The number of 3G subscribers has increased to 16 mn resulting in the Government has putting off licensing on 4G spectrum to help maximize ROI on the current 3G networks. Vietnam´s IPTV segment reached 1 mn subscribers after 3 years of its operations. Currently there are four IPTV providers namely FPT Telecom, media firm VTC, VNPT and Viettel. Overall fixed broadband penetration remained relatively low at under 5% of population.


GLOBAL TELECOM

26

TAIWAN

THAILAND

Taiwan has emerged as the leading high-tech centre in Asia Pacific driven by the need to concentrate on technology owing to increased land and labour cost. The current telecom market is characterized by annual service revenues of around $ 12.5 bn, substantial investment in infrastructure, total broadband penetration of more than 100% including both fixed-line and mobile services and use of FTTx as the access technology. The increased smartphone penetration and 3G subscriber base (75% of the total subscribers) has increased data revenues (35% of the total telecom service revenues), the demand for symmetrical broadband services (CHT provides 100Mb/s connection) and is driving higher ARPU. The other key developments include award of 4G licences, slow adoption of WiMAX and fiber connections to 85% premises expected by the end of this year. It is expected that digitized cable TV networks will cover 42% of all subscribers by end of 2013. The fixed line subscriber declined from 12.36 mn in April 2013 to 12.38 mn in March 2013.

The mobile subscriber base doubled in the country over the last 6 years with mobile penetration at 120% whereas the landline market registered negative growth in FY 2012-13. The mobile market is characterized by a duopoly of the operators AIS and DTAC with True Move occupying the third place. NBTC the telecom regulator body of the country completed the 2100MHz 3G auction and also approved the draft of the revised regulation to prevent foreign dominance in the telecom industry in October 2012.The other key statistics of the telecom sector registered include average ARPU of 187/bath per month for last quarter and MoU per subscriber of 239 min/month. With 3G and 4G rollout the demand for smart phones also increased with 2.87 mn smart phones being sold in the first four months of 2013. This also resulted in increased usage of OTT mobile messengers with LINE accounting for 15 mn users and decreased usage of dial-up connections. The Master Plan of the ICT Ministry states that all 200 state agencies could migrate to IPv6 by 2015. However, there is no clear deadline. The response is lukewarm even though the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority, which overseas IP addresses, allocated the last blocks of IPv4 address space to the Regional Internet Registry.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian market operates in a two-tiered fashion with

political and media focus on national broadband. The

Coalition government has drafted an NBN policy that

supports the network currently being rolled out which is

expected to provide faster, more reliable broadband access

to business and household users though a mix of three

technologies: : optic fiber, fixed wireless and next-

generation satellite. The mobile broadband subscribers are

expected to increase to more than 5.5 bn after Telstra

emerged as the winner at the 4G LTE spectrum auction.

4G/LTE network penetration is expected to increase as

additional networks are being released driven by operator's

investment and also consumers migrating towards LTE

from 3G. The smartphone market is also expected to

witness a rapid growth after it doubled in 2012.

The advent of emerging telecom technologies has brought about significant development in the telecom ecosystem of all geographic regions. Africa has seen major advancement in internet and broadband penetration due to large-scale deployment of undersea optic fibre cables. This has led to enhanced adoption of services like 3G and roll out of LTE networks. The growth in European telecom market was slow majorly due to economic woes. However, technologies like IPTV has seen substantial growth in countries like Russia and Hungary due to large-scale fibre deployment by service providers. There has been increased Smartphone penetration and entry of low cost carriers with adoption of 3G/4G technologies in countries like Germany & Italy. However, in countries like Spain; 4G and fibre deployments have been slow due to the economic crisis. The Middle Eastern region has seen significant digitisation in economy and development in e-commerce services with up gradation of LTE network and broadband speeds, for both wired and wireless. The intensely competitive and saturated Middle Eastern market has provided better opportunities due to a range of offerings like IPTV and VoD (video on demand).Roll out of LTE and FTTH services along with increased smart phone usage has resulted in growth of North American telecom market. M&A activities in US and entry of new competitors in Canada have resulted in change in the telecom market structure of the West. Major countries in South East Asia like Japan and China have witnessed a decline in 3G connections due to rapid adoption of LTE services

CONCLUSION


GLOBAL TELECOM


31GLOBAL TELECOM

Parameter

Africa

Germany

France

Italy

Egypt

Kenya

South Africa

Nigeria

South East Asia

Czech Republic

Russia

Hungary

Eastern Europe

49,192,844

38,642,455

20,818,525

4,847,301

1,984,819

41,747,145

3,237,849

7,884,386

228,684

3,937,956

227,574

Wireless Subscribers

Fixed Line Subscribers

Per Capita IncomeGNI (PPP) US $

Cellular Teledensity

108,191,113

63,873,365

99,980,222

51,024,218

13,255,053

284,658,597

11,622,789

101,646,185

33,501,202

71,768,629

124,572,280

191.58

132.24

100.42

164.77

126.77

194.75

108.32

113.35

79.85

141.03

73.88

800 MHz, 1800 MHz and 2600 MHz bands




1800 MHz bands

1800MHz and 2600MHz bands

Planned in 2100 MHz band by 2013

Trials On

1800MHz and 2100MHz bands

Testing on in 2100MHz and 1900MHz bands


27

PRÉVISION

4G LTE Status

42,716

31,577

24,469

22,765

23,132

18,574

3,091

1,786

8,306

2,540

Australia 10,355,65725,035,219 108.07 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2300 MHz bands69,957

South America

Canada

USA

Argentina

Brazil

North America

17,789,045

135,277,620

10,464,414

45,390,241

19,730,478

27,423,209

334,978,783

61,046,074

290,775,346

102,883,711

79.92

105.64

147.54

146.03

88.71

1700 & 2100 MHz bands

700 MHz, 850 MHz, 1900 MHZ and

2100 MHz bands

Trials on in 1700 MHz & 2100 MHz bands

2500 MHz and 2600 MHz bands

1700 MHz & 2100 MHz bands

42,885

50,949

13337 (GDP/Per Capita)

11779 (GDP/Per Capita)

17,220

37,690

Spain 19,100,27551,208,529 107.31 1800 MHz and 2600 MHz bands31,821

UK 32,849,47982,988,920 131.74 800 MHz , 1800 MHz and 3500 MHz bands32,347

Middle East

12,668,77272,859,297 89.8 Planned for 2600MHz band in 201619,118

2,033,72714,821,328 175.32 1800MHz band35,932

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

UAE

Kuwait2,049,22814,830,553 205.99 1800MHz and 2600MHz bands46,290

China 271,697,8721,216,772,872 89.51 Pre-Commercial launch in 2600 MHz bands10,042

Hong Kong 4,386,93517,438,516 241.29 1800 MHz and 2600 MHz bands38,176

Indonesia 33,860,357298,099,449 122.37 Planned in 1800 MHz band by 20133,560

Japan 62,127,223145,933,449 113.47800MHz, 1500 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100

MHz & 2500 MHz bands36,888

Philippines

Malaysia 4,607,504

3,918,782

44,814,052

113,294,738

151.13

112.75

1800 MHz and 2600 MHz bands


10,778

4,697

Singapore 2,001,9198,438,837 157.69 1800 MHz and 2600 MHz bands54,079

Taiwan 15,452,21831,029,575 127.42Planned in 700 MHz and 2600

MHz bands by 2014NA

Thailand 6,111,72590,456,879 128.8 1800 MHz and 2100 MHz bands9,629

Vietnam 9,535,290141,936,559 156.76 Planned in 2600 MHz band in 20133,639

GLOBAL TELECOM

Western Europe

FORECASTS FOR 2013 - 14

Mexico


Tejas Kawli | Arpita Santra

Student Team

28 TELECOM TECHNOLOGIES

SCOPE

3.75G AND BEYOND

LTE

The rapidly evolving technologies have made the global market highly dynamic for telecom operators threatening the RoI on their technology investments. The recent disruptive technology developments have also challenged leading OEMs, forcing them to accommodate these changes in their business models. This vertical encompasses the latest technologies that are being deployed by telecom operators and predictions are made by analyzing major factors driving the growth of these technologies.

Long Term Evolution (LTE) refers to the 3GPP standard providing the next step towards 4G mobile systems from the present 2G and 3G networks. It is expected to provide more efficient utilization of the scarce spectrum in addition to the support for high data-rate services & applications.

Mobile broadband is witnessing an accelerated growth rate as consumers have started accessing internet from various devices. Majority of these consumers are expected to be served by HSPA and LTE networks. The constantly growing demand for higher data rates has triggered demand for more radio capacity in markets such as Western Europe, North America, Japan and Korea. Vendors and operators have initiated efforts to achieve conformance with LTE standardization. In 2013, Verizon announced that Ericsson and Alcatel Lucent would be their eUTRAN suppliers. Telia-Sonera also selected Huawei and Ericsson to supply the eUTRAN for the two planned rollouts in Oslo and Stockholm in Sweden. The key challenge for the new vendors is to serve different LTE spectrum bands in different countries. The primary reason is the fact that different timelines have been set by telecom regulators for vacation of the digital dividend spectrum by the broadcasters.



Expected to cross

150 mn

Worldwide 4G

subscribers : 92.3 mn

29

Study shows that most of the commercially launched LTE networks across US & Europe are based on FDD LTE, whereas operators in India, China are planning to deploy the TDD version. Such major large scale field trials for China-led TD-LTE standard has attracted the attention of carriers in number of other countries with its greater efficiency in terms of frequency spectrum usage.

Key Drivers:

„ Video Streaming and mobile broadband penetration‡ Deployment of IMS - the service platform for operators‡ Success of LTE in Western Europe and Latin America

WiMAX had the first mover advantage over LTE. Despite this WiMAX has not been able to gain market due to better advantages offered by LTE as well as the fact that it is not backward compatible with 2.5G or 3G networks. The WiMAX industry started off with good enthusiasm with more than 300 high profile trials worldwide, including networks by Sprint & Clearwire in USA & Wi-Bro service in South Korea. However the full commercial deployments started lagging after these trials, which proved to be the source of major frustration to equipment vendors. The growth in WiMAX has been stagnant due to rapid adoption of LTE across the world. In late 2012, WiMAX Forum announced release of WiMAX 2.1 to focus on support for multiple radio access technologies. In 2013, the WiMAX Forum working groups were already working on the requirements for WiMAX Release 2.2, which will further address the advances of Release 2.1 within the network. Release 2.2 and beyond are expected to enable features such as link aggregation and load balancing. This enhancement of WiMAX Advanced is a strong step toward securing the future of WiMAX technology by offering greater flexibility to its ecosystem. According to the discussion in the international WiMAX Forum Association conference,

Key Drivers:

„ Rise in demand of Triple Play services ‡ Suport for multiple radio technologies.‡ Low CAPEX requirement‡ Demand for High data rates

WiMAX

CLOUD COMPUTING

The advantages offered by Cloud Computing such as speed, agility and efficiency can be attributed to the on-demand access to shared computing resources. Cloud computing services are pay-per-use with minimal cost and higher efficiency being major value addition to enterprise businesses. The objective of cloud services is to apply traditional supercomputing, using virtualization techniques that are used to maximize the power of cloud computing.

Companies such as Amazon, IBM, Azure, Google, Microsoft, Citrix, VMware, HP and Rackspace have highly invested in providing low priced cloud computing services with Amazon maintaining its position as leader in cloud computing market space. Indian IT firms have reached saturation in traditional outsourcing business but there stands huge scope for them to form new partnerships with Telcos, wherein the Telcos provide the connectivity, IT firm play the roles of Application provider & cloud broker and companies like Amazon providing the infrastructure in the cloud. With this kind of tie-up new business models can be devised as cloud services that include SaaS, IaaS and PaaS are expected to drive growth in outsourcing. North America , Europe and Latin American companies have the highest level of cloud services adoption which generated $ 100 bn revenue altogether in FY 2012-2013. The Asia-Pacific market share has been majorly captured by Japanese and South Korean companies owing to Data Center outsourcing, web hosting and collocation services.

The major challenges in adoption of web based cloud services on the provider side are security, requirement of cross-country regulatory compliance, and lack of expertise in integrating new cloud services in existing data centers. With the business-user's perspective, the key constraints are lack of accountability, difficulty in enforcing security, privacy and trust for the cloud services.







Indian Public Cloud Services Market stood at $ 0.44 bn

Global Public Cloud Services Market stood at $ 131 bn

Expected to cross

$ 156 bn

Expected to cross

$ 0.58 bn

Growth rate has

slumped to 10%

Expected to cross

150 mn

Key Drivers:

MPLS provides faster switching compared to traditional IP (hop by hop routing) and hence it is widely used in the Service Provider core network. Traffic engineering and Virtual Private Network support are two key applications of MPLS along with its basic applications that improve its Quality of Service (QOS).

MPLS solves dual issues of reliability and redundancy & is more reliable than IPSec VPNs. It results in significant cost reduction, increased centralized control, sharing of resources without compromising on security, scalability, high availability & convergence.

One of the largest Ethernet footprints in the U.S., MegaPath offers economical Ethernet over Copper services with speeds up to 45 Mbps in over 235 metro markets throughout the United States. In India, Tulip Telecom Limited emerged as the largest MPLS VPN player ahead of Vodafone, Airtel, Idea, BSNL, Tata Communications etc. in the market covering 2000 cities (FY 2012-2013).

Key Drivers:

MPLS

VOICE OVER LTE (VoLTE)

Voice over LTE enables services that include high resolution video conferencing, one number with multiple device option, and sharing of multimedia data across mobile broadband devices.

South Korea was the first country to launch VoLTE in August 2012. In US, Verizon and AT&T are expected to launch VoLTE services in 2013. Though the market for VoLTE is increasing yet there exists an uncertainty on the various implementation issues that need to be addressed. The fact that VoLTE services are yet to establish themselves has given the OTT services such as Skype, Line, Nimbuzz, WeChat and Viber the time to gain substantial subscriber base . The number of subscribers increased by 550% from last year and has reached 640 mn (June 2013).

A few challenges the operators are expected to face in implementation of VoLTE include integration with existing operations and business support systems and non-availability of VoLTE capable smartphones.

Key Drivers:

M2M has witnessed tremendous growth in the last few years due to the increasing number of internet connected devices. M2M is enabling companies to create new revenue streams by venturing into new service areas. Telecom operators are providing connectivity for M2M communications which forms 10% of the M2M revenue;

M2M









30

„ Increase in IT related services„ Adoption of cloud based enterprise applications„ Increase demand of hosted cloud based solutions„ Rising trends of virtualization in enterprise, mobilityand BYOD„ Data Security Laws

„ Use of MPLS in Mobile Backhaul Networks„ Surging Data traffic„ Cost cutting by enterprises„ Rise in Bandwidth intensive services„ Cloud Service Penetration„ Rise in Number of Small and Medium Enterprises

„ Increasing demand for rich services including enhanced messaging, capability exchange and video share/chat„ Intense competition from OTT players like Facebook, Skype, WeChat, Nimbuzz„ Low OPEX requirement „ Successful launch of VoLTE in European countries

Revenue (India) :

` 165 bn

Expected to reach

` 200 bn

Global Subscriber Base: 640 mn with550% (Y-o-Y) growth

Expected to increase due to large scale adoption in Utility, Automotive, Telematics and Smart Home sectors

Growth of 4G technology will drive M2M adoption with Telecom Operators expected to increase their CAGR by partnering with M2M service providers.

Telecom Operators are acting as bit pipe providers in M2M ecosystem.

Global Subscriber Base: 640 mn with 550% (Y-o-Y) growth

Adoption is expected to increase owing to worldwide Telecom Operators facing intensive competition from OTT Players

hence they are building partnership with M2M providers in specific vertical market sectors to improve their service portfolio. Telemetry, Asset tracking, Security & Surveillance, Advertising, Fleet Management & Consumer Telematics are some of the M2M Applications.

Growth of M2M complements the growth of VAS services and has advantages such as flexibility, mobility, access to information, Independent network, speed, and cost. A few challenges being faced in M2M implementation are lack of standardization, huge infrastructure investment, deployment of M2M applications and slow adoption of IPv6 addressing. These challenges are being addressed by the various stakeholders and in the coming 1-2 years, we expect M2M to gain required critical mass.

The Global Mobile M2M module market was worth $ 1.5bn in 2012 and it is expected to grow rapidly in the next fiscal year.

Key Drivers:

„ Government initiatives in favour of smart metering and telematics.„ Wide rollout of 3G and LTE networks„ Demand for M2M connectivity by Industry segments „ Lack of standardization„ Slow adoption of IPv6 addressing

The Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), a standards body, created IPv6 as a replacement to IPv4 in 1998, as a solution to the future problem of exhausting IP addresses. The Internet engineering community has developed several transition mechanisms that will allow network operators to gradually migrate from IPv4 to IPv6. With its 32-bit address format, IPv4 can handle a maximum 4.3 bn unique IP addresses. IPv6, on the other hand, uses 128-bit address format which can support 3.4 x 1038 unique addresses. IPv6's primary goal is to increase the Internet's address space providing advantages such as auto configuration, built in security through IPSec protocol, network numbering, mobility, and extensibility.

IPv6

Presently Linux, BSD, Solaris, Microsoft Vista, and Microsoft Server 2008 operating systems have their IPv6stacks in which IPv6 operates as the preferred protocol stack.A few barriers to adoption of IPv6 include enormous past investments made in the IPv4 technology, overheads in IPv6 packet, inefficient resource utilization, technical hurdles, and lack of IPv6 content.

As of May 2013, Switzerland was the leader in IPv6 adoption worldwide (10%) followed by Romania (8%) and France (5%). Globally, the percentage of IPv6 users is currently around 1.5%, up from 0.65% in June 2012.

Key Drivers:

„ Increasing demand for IP addresses due to increasing M2M modules and increased usage of smart phones„ IPv4 Address Exhaustion„ Elimination of need for network address translation (NAT) and application layered gateway (ALG)„ Robust auto configuration and security

Telepresence is an immersive high-definition video conferencing solution that allows direct communication between geographically dispersed users. It delivers a unique, 'in person' experience with remote participants — allowing users to interact and collaborate with others. With extremely high-quality audio and high-definition video at low latency and an optimized meeting environment, users can communicate and converse in real time.

Major driver being Skyrocketing travel costs have negative business implications. As travel rules and regulations have multiplied, the costs of travel (both business and personal) have grown as well so companies treat Telepresence as a means to control the opportunity costs involved in such travelsIn 2013, the codec standard H.265 / High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) is expected to be ratified by

TELEPRESENCE


31






Telepresence is being adopted by large enterprises worldwide

Telepresence is expected to grow with the advent of affordable Cloud based Telepresence services

Growth in adoption of 4G services is expected to drive Telepresence

SMBs are reluctant to use Telepresence due to high deployment cost

Ipv6 is in the early stages with only 1.5 % users worldwide as of May 2013

Growing number of smart phones, growth in Internet usage & M2M will lead to increased adoption of Ipv6

ITU-T. H.265 promises ubiquitous high-quality video by reducing bandwidth consumption up to 50% compared to existing technologies. Telepresence characterized by its high intensity collaboration is expected to become an essential feature with an intelligent network in near future. Cloud based Telepresence will serve as an equalizer between various business enterprises with better models emerging in the market across a mixture of public, private and hybrid cloud options.

While Telepresence provides benefits such as affordability, reliability and security yet the high cost, need for Higher Bandwidth & Service Levels and lack of availability of reliable internet connectivity serve as barriers to its adoption by SMBs.

The Total worldwide enterprise video conferencing and Telepresence equipment revenue stood at $ 739.8 mn in Q4, 2012. However, the overall revenue witnessed a decline of 2.6 % from $ 2.7 bn in FY 2011-2012 to $ 2.64 bn total in FY 2012-2013. The major players involve AT&T, Cisco, Tata Communications & Google.

Key Drivers:

„ Global Expansion of Multi- national Enterprises„ Rise of cloud computing services and virtualization„ Broadband penetration„ Increase in demand for virtual classroom education „ Increasing demand from mass-media industry

Dish TV is the largest company in this segment, with a gross subscriber base of 15 mn. Other major players include Tata Sky with 11.5 mn subscribers, Airtel Digital and Videocon DTH. The country's total DTH subscriber base rose from 46.25 mn in FY 2011-2012 to 57 mn in FY 2012-2013.The increased FDI of 74% last year helped step up the process of digitization where investments are required to be made by the cable industry but at the same time increase the vertical monopoly of international media firms in India. For Telcos, the emerging route to delivery of television and video services is via IPTV (Internet Protocol television). Most Global Telcos are making efforts to capture market share in the video delivery business by giving competition to cable MSOs and DBS providers.

DTH (India)

However, IPTV adoption is slow due to large bandwidth requirement and latency.

Key Drivers:

„ Approval from the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting to digitize cable networks across India by December, 2014„ Moving away from price-based competition to value added service based one.„ Bundled sales of LCD TV with DTH connections„ Partnerships with Production houses for screening of movies „ Improved compression techniques for interactive video features

The IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) is a key enabler for the convergence of fixed and mobile communications with respect to network, device and services. IMS implementation provides diverse benefits such as standardized service delivery using layered architecture, simplified service creation, and provisioning process interworking. Considering long term perspective, IMS enables a secure migration path to an all-IP architecture that will meet end-user demands for new enriched services.

IMS standard has experienced a high adoption rate as it is the only standard for SIP-based communication presently. From a network infrastructure perspective, IMS can be very cost efficient - in terms of operation and maintenance.

Key Drivers:

„ Demand for network convergence „ Reduced time-to-market for new multimedia services „ Demand for superior QoS for IP based services „ Demand for location independent services „ Increase in demand of interactive services

IP MULTIMEDIA SUBSYSTEM (IMS)


32





30


DTH(India) : Total subscription - 57 mn

Expected to reach 70 mn

IMS is acting as a major driving force towardsan all IP packet switched networks

IMS deployment is expected to increase rapidly due to increasing demand of convergence and location independent services

RICH COMMUNICATION SERVICES (RCS-E)

RCS-e is a simplified version of the RCS 2.0 specifications, which were defined with the objective of working across networks and devices, unlike OTT services that typically can be used after downloading the respective application on the device. RCS-e gives the operators a tool set to compete with the emerging over-the-top (OTT) players. In Europe, the five major operators – Orange, Telefónica, Telecom Italia, DT and Vodafone (G-5 or Euro-5) - recently reinforced their commitments to launch RCS-e services in France, Spain, Italy and Germany.

GSMA has played a major role in promoting the introduction of RCS-e. The standard body has been very active on a market-by-market basis bringing operators together to discuss and plan for RCS-e launches. The RCS-e specification is designed to be interoperable between all carriers, operators and devices.

Certain services such as High Definition (HD) voice, video-sharing and advanced geo-location services are expected to be billed on per transaction basis to increase ARPU from both post and pre-paid data subscribers.

Key Drivers:

„ Increasing threat from OTT service providers „ Increase in usage of SMS, video chat.„ Compatibility across carriers, networks and devices„ Continued support for RCS-e HTML based apps from the OMA.

SOFTWARE DEFINED NETWORKING

CONCLUSION

Software-defined networking provides data networks with real-time intelligence, deep application integration and high level of automation. It is an approach to networking which removes embedded control plane functions from individual networking hardware, and moves them to a centralized location implemented in software. SDNs benefits include increased efficiency, faster time to new service deployment and ability to build multiple virtual networks over a common physical network fabric. It also cut down cost by reducing reliance on proprietary hardware platforms used for conventional hardware defined networking.

Key vendors in SDN market space are Cisco Systems Inc., Hewlett-Packard, IBM and NEC Corp. One of the major restraints for SDN is lack of interoperability standards.

Key Drivers:

„ Demand for network virtualization„ High CAPEX on traditional routers and Layer-3 switches„ Lack of interoperability standards

LTE, Cloud Computing & MPLS are expected to rise significantly because of the surge in data traffic and cost cutting initiatives taken by operators. IMS & MPLS deployments are steps taken towards converged networks. M2M, VoLTE and RCS have the potential of enabling telecom operators to provide enhanced services to customers. This is expected to boost revenues for the telecom operators facing intense competition from OTT service providers.


33






RCS-E adoption along with VoLTE deployment is expected to increase with increase in penetration of 4G adoption

RCS-E has emerged as a potential service enabler for competing against OTT service offerings

Increasing demand for network virtualization is acting as a major driver in growth for SDN deployment

SDN deployment is expected to increase at a stagnant pace due to lack of standardization

RCS-E is expected to support Telecom Operatorsin generating new revenue streams and help mitigatethreat from OTT service providers

Telecom Operators are facing intense competition from OTT service providers.Operators lost $ 23 bn in SMS revenues globally to OTT services in FY 2012-2013

TELECOM SOFTWARE

Anuradha Acharya | Varun Pandhi

Student Team

34 TELECOM SOFTWARE

SCOPE

OSS/ BSS

With unexpected global economic conditions & rapid changes in telecom industry, demand for telecom software is increasing at CAGR of 7.9%. Major forces driving this industry are evolving technologies and competition among CSPs to launch customized and quality services for customers. SDP & CRM are fastest growing sectors along with Mobile operating system. Rising demand for Smart devices has increased the demand for Mobile application development, which is expected to generate new career opportunities. This section covers all aspects of OSS/BSS, CRM, BI, SDP & need for application integration.

The OSS/BSS segment has undergone many changes over the last few years due to changing Telecom industry dynamics and subscriber preferences. With Operators rolling out Triple Play and Quad Play services, the role of OSS/BSS has become critical. The trend of offering converged services has led to complexities in the OSS/BSS infrastructure and manageability. Operators are migrating to Next Generation OSS/BSS solutions to launch new IP services and integrating the other services on the IP Platform. This helps operators reduce their OPEX and CAPEX.

In the last year, the global OSS/BSS market grew at a compound annual growth rate of 13.72% and generated revenue of $ 27.5 bn. Ericsson leads the market with about $ 3.4 bn, followed by Accenture, Huawei, IBM, Amdocs and NEC, each with $ 2.5 to $ 3.2 bn.

Competition among CSPs (Communication Service Providers) is bringing in new growth prospects for OSS/BSS software vendors. Telecom companies are increasingly seeking software development services from IT firms or are outsourcing their technological divisions for various service systems.



Global OSS/BSS Market: $ 27.5 bn

Expected to reach $ 33.7 bn

Driven by combined impact of rise in consumer base, increase in amount of data required to be managed, and expansion in customer oriented services, the OSS/BSS market is expected to grow substantially worldwide.

Key Drivers:

„ Changing customer demands and launch of future technologies like 4G, M2M etc.„ Increased demand for data services, market competition in Europe and North America„ Wide-scale deployment of universal mobile telecommunication systems and the growing focus on

customer experience„ Need to shift to Next generations OSS BSS platform

The global service delivery platform (SDP) software and service market grew at a CAGR of 9.15% over FY 2012-13. The SDP market generated $ 4.6 billion revenue worldwide during FY 2012-13. The top six market companies Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks, Huawei Technologies, Alcatel-Lucent, Oracle and Amdocs share nearly 61.4% revenue in SDP market.

NSN on the other hand showed no growth in SDP revenue, but managed to maintain its second position because of its ONE-NDS solution. CSPs focused on shifting their external SDP spending on internal service development to reduce costs.

SERVICE DELIVERY PLATFORM

Key Drivers:

„ Shift to monetize infrastructure investments„ Investments in mobile data service technologies„ Delivery of basic services including VoIP, ringtones, and

streaming video services„ “ Mashups” and other Web-based applications offered by Google, Yahoo, and other Web 2.0 Internet content

providers (ICPs)

LTE, Cloud Computing & MPLS are expected to rise

significantly because of the surge in data traffic and cost

cutting initiatives taken by operators. IMS & MPLS

deployments are steps taken towards converged networks.

M2M, VoLTE and RCS have the potential of enabling

telecom operators to provide enhanced services to

customers. This is expected to boost revenues for the

telecom operators facing intense competition from OTT

service providers.

NMS market generated $ 4.5 bn revenue during 2012, down

4% from $ 4.7 bn in 2011. Weak foreign exchange rates and

a sharp decline in government-funded national broadband

networks were the main reasons for the decline in the NMS

market in 2012.Ericsson maintained its leadership in the

NMS market, retaining its 21% share of worldwide revenue.

The top-six network equipment manufacturers (NEMs)

were the same as in 2011 – Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson,

Huawei, Nokia Siemens Networks, Cisco Systems and ZTE.

In 2012, these six accounted for 80% of the total revenue in

this highly consolidated market.

NETWORK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM


35TELECOM SOFTWARE



Alcatel-

Lucent, 10

Huawei

Technologies 12

NSN , 12.1

Ericsson, 16

Other, 38.7

Amdocs, 5.3Oracle, 6.4

Global SDP Market Share (2012-13)



NMS market generated

$ 4.5 bn revenue

worldwide

Expected to increase with

the acceptance of LTE,

SDNs, Cloud Services

Market size: $ 4.6 bn Expected to cross

$ 5.23 bn

NMS growth is expected to renew this year as service providers deploy new network technologies and IP services in order to remain competitive. Asia–Pacific and North America are expected to be major contributors to the growth this year. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% and reach $ 4.76 bn in 2013. The mobile NMS segment will lead growth in the overall NMS market, with a 6.5% CAGR. The business services NMS segment follows close behind, with a 6.2% CAGR. Residential broadband NMS is forecasted to grow slower, at a 5.4% CAGR. However, growth in these segments is offset by a rapid decline in PSTN NMS revenue, at a –14.9% CAGR, as CSPs shift spending to IP-based networks and retire their PSTN equipment.

Key Drivers:

„ The NMS market is linked to equipment sales. Moreover, LTE, small-cell and FTTx roll-out is expected to increase„ LTE, national broadband networks and cloud services will drive growth in business services NMS as CSPs invest in backhaul and transport networks, and enterprise IP services

The CRM worldwide market grew from $ 16 bn to $ 18 bn showing a 12% growth ra te in 2012 . The telecommunication industry has been seen as the leader with the most CRM customers. 80% of all CRM software in 2012 was sold in North America and Western Europe. North America CRM sales grew 16.6% from 2011 to 2012. The highest sales of CRM between 2011 and 2012 were recorded in Greater China (26.9%) and Latin America (24.3%).

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT

Salesforce.com was the world's leading CRM software vendor with 14% market share in 2012 ($ 2.5 bn in sales), surpassing SAP (12.9%, $ 2.3 bn in sales), Oracle (11.1%, $ 2.01 bn in sales), Microsoft (6.3%, $ 1.1 bn in sales), IBM (3.6%, $ 649 mn in sales). The top ten vendors worldwide generated $ 10.9 bn in sales alone in 2012. There was a strong demand for software as a service (SaaS), which represented nearly 40 percent of total CRM software revenue in 2012, as organizations of all sizes sought easier-to-deploy alternatives to replace legacy systems or to provide alternative complementary functionality. Today, customer relationship management market is not limited only for increasing sales and improving marketing activities, but to bring in more customer engagement with the enterprises.

Key Drivers:

„ The rising focus on customer engagement„ Social platforms (Social CRM) and the recognition of sharing ideas on a real time basis

The Service fulfillment market generated revenue worth $ 2.72 bn in FY 2012-2013. The top six vendors were Ericsson, Oracle, NEC/NetCracker, Amdocs, Hewlett-Packard and Comptel sharing amongst them nearly 48% of the global market share indicating that this market continues to be fragmented. This market continued to grow at a higher rate than other telecom software areas because it has better revenue generation opportunities. Investments in the IP probe and service management sub-segments are fuelling the growth of the service fulfillment market growth.Customer experience is a key focus for communications service providers (CSPs) in all regions in both developed and emerging markets.

SERVICE FULFILLMENT



Others 19% Ericsson 21%

Huawei 17%

Alcatel-Lucent 16%NSN 13%

Cisco System 8%

ZTE 6%

Global NMS Market Share by revenue (2012-13)



CRM Market share, 2012-13

Salesforce 14%

SAP13%

Oracle 11%

Microsoft

6%IBM

4%

Others 52%



36

Market size: $ 18 billion Expected to reach

$ 20 billion

Market size of service

fulfillment: $ 2.72 bn

Expected to reach

$ 3 bn

Key Drivers:

„ Triple play services, i.e., voice, video, and data over the broadband will create infrastructure demand for activation services„ Introduction of new services by CSPs to increase their revenues„ Modest improvements in economic conditions across Europe„ Slowing subscriber growth in emerging markets

The Global Telecom Billing software market grew at CAGR of 4.3% in FY 2012-13. Mediation software market grew at 5.8% CAGR in FY 2012-2013. The main focus of CSPs was on convergent charging. The convergent charging market, including software and services, rose 42 percent to under $ 1.7 bn during last fiscal year. As the ramp-up in data traffic continues to strain the network, operators are looking to correlate the value of resources consumed to the price charged in a better way. Convergent charging market showed a slow growth in Western Europe last year but rest of Europe, Latin America and developed countries in Asia Pacific displayed better growth. Full-scale billing transformation projects were few and majority of deployments occurred as a result of adjunct or overlay projects. Charging software has been developed to handlemultiple dimensions of convergence, including convergence across payment methods, service types and

BILLING, MEDIATION AND RATING

access networks, along with related consulting, integration, and managed services. One of the key challenges faced by operators in this respect is that 80% of operators lack real-time data for postpaid billing.

Key Drivers:

„ Addressing issues with incorrect billing„ Replacement of charging interfaces and platforms is anticipated in the convergent charging space as operators rethink their existing solutions and augment them with more feature-rich, flexible and scalable systems

The Service assurance market generated revenue of $ 2.5 bn in FY 2012-13. The top six vendors are Tektronix, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, JDS Uniphase, CA, Ericsson (Telcordia Technologies) which generated 53.8% of the global market share in FY 2012-13.

Service assurance market is expected to rise as investments in the service management increase, driven mostly by funding for projects that aim to improve the customer experience. Equipment suppliers are putting greater emphasis on service assurance solutions that support customer experience projects. Real-time network analytics and big data are bolstering investments in probe systems as a source of data.

Key Drivers:

„ Increase in ARPU„ Consolidation of systems in performance management market to support a more unified view of services operating over the network„ Delayed investments in telecom services due to deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals„ Hindered business growth due to lack of cooperation between operation within CSPs

SERVICE ASSURANCE

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE


37






Global NMS Market Share by revenue (2012-13)

Others 52.1%

Ericsson

11.7% Oracle

11.1%

NEC,

9.4%

Amdocs

7.9%

HP

4.4%Comptel

3.5%



Billing software market

grew at 4.3 % CAGR

Mediation software market

grew at 5.8 % CAGR

Expected to increase

Expected to increase

Service Assurance

market size: $ 2.5 bn

Expected to cross

$ 2.6 bn

Business Intelligence

market size $ 13.1 bn

Expected to cross

$ 14.49 bn

Tough macroeconomic conditions and confusion related to emerging technology terms led to more muted growth in the worldwide business intelligence (BI) market than in the previous year. Global spending on BI software was $ 13.1 bn last year, a 6.8 percent rise over 2011's $ 12.3 bn total, but the pace of growth slowed considerably from the approximately 17 percent rate experienced in 2011. SAP was seen as the leader, with around $ 3 bn revenue and 22 percent market share. Oracle took the second place, with revenue of $ 1.9 bn and share just under 15 percent. While each of the top five BI software vendors retained their top five status, IBM and SAS exchanged places to move IBM into third position and SAS into fourth.

Business intelligence is in the midst of a profound change with concepts like big data, mobile BI, and cloud BI leading the charge. These concepts are expected to continue to change how business intelligence is approached in 2013 and beyond. Worldwide Business Intelligence (BI) software revenue is expected to reach $ 13.8 bn in 2013, a 7 percent increase from 2012.

Key Drivers:

„ Need for businesses to increase their agility and have the right information available to assist in crucial decision- making „ Data discovery becoming a mainstream architecture„ Software as a service (SaaS) increasingly becoming the preferred option for granular analytics

Middleware solutions are the key to maximizing the processes and applications that drive business. By enabling integration of applications, services and platforms, an effective middleware design can help deliver several benefits and help reduce lag between the business needs and IT deliverables. Key vendors in this market space include IBM Corp., Oracle Corp., Microsoft Corp., Software AG, and TIBCO Software Inc. IBM was the leading software vendor with 30.9% market share, nearly double that of its closest competitor.

MIDDLEWARE INTEGRATION

The worldwide application infrastructure and middleware software market grew 5% to $ 20 bn in year 2012.

Key Drivers: „ Hybrid business models„ Ever-increasing need for reductions in the cost of IT, greater productivity, and better employee engagement„ SaaS growing adoption „ The radical growth of the “app economy”

Worldwide mobile device shipments (notebook PCs, tablet PCs, smart phones and phones) increased with a CAGR of 8% Y-O-Y over the last year. Tablet PCs showed maximum growth, with a CAGR of 35%, followed by smart phones with 18%. Shipments of other phones declined during 2012 and smart phones overtook feature phones for the first time.

In case of smartphones, Android and iOS jointly account for 92.3% of all smartphone operating system shipments in the first quarter. Windows Phone overtook BlackBerry to capture third spot.

New smart phone operating systems, such as Firefox OS, Tizen, Sailfish and Ubuntuare expected to draw attention. The best short term alternative for these players can be to attract the first-time smart buyers. Mozilla has started working in collaboration with several carriers to launch devices for the specific target market.

MOBILE OPERATING SYSTEMS AND APPLICATION MARKET

Mobile Operating Systems





BI Market Share (2012 -13)

Others 29% SAP 22%

Oracle 15%

IBM 13%SAS 12%

Microsoft 9%

38

Global Devices Shipments by Operating System (Q1 2013)

Others 51%

Android 22%

Windows 16%

iOS, Mac OS10%

RIM

1%

Market Size: 722.4

mn units

Expected to reach

900 mn units

Key Drivers:

„ Evolving Technologies and Data„ The proliferation of lower-priced tablets and their growing capability

Increase in demand for smart devices like smartphones & tablets are driving rapid growth in Mobile Application business globally. Apps generated $ 12 bn in FY 2012 -2013. Apple's App Store, Google Play, Windows Phone Store and BlackBerry World were the four top app stores with respect to utilization. App stores generated revenue of $ 2.2 bn majorly driven by app downloads in in Q1-2013, a 9% increase over 2012. Apple's App Store leads the market with 74% of the market share.

46 billion apps were downloaded in FY 2012-13, taking the cumulative all-time total downloads since the app games were initiated to 83 bn. It is projected that 2 bn iOS and Android applications will be downloaded per week. Currently, more than 26,000 applications are submitted to the Apple App Store per week which is around 1.3 million a year. The future looks even brighter since the application economy has managed to create more than 500,000 jobs.

India is third-fastest growing mobile app market in the

world, with US and Europe leading the way. Since India has

more mobile phone users than PC and laptop users,

Mobile Applications

the future of app business seems very bright. At present,

there are 9,000 app development companies in India. Most

of which were launched during the last three years. ' With

affordable devices such as Data Wind’s Aakash - 2 tablet

being delivered to the students in a push to close the digital

divide, the potential market for e-education, M-health is

expected to increase. Rural Indians are expected to derive

maximum benefit from these initiatives.

The top paid apps in India include gaming, utilities, music and video apps. The top free apps are social, games, photo and video apps. Lifestyle applications that help people find restaurants, book movie tickets or find friends are also growing.With evolving technologies & high demand for smart devices it is expected to have a CAGR of 35.60 % YoY.

Key Drivers: „ Increase In Smartphone shipments„ More mobile users than PC & laptops„ Demand for native and web based apps

Over the years the telecom software market has changed due to changing telecom industry dynamics. In 2012, OSS/BSS, SDP, CRM, Service Fulfillment, Billing and Mediation and Service assurance continued to show a strong growth. The growth in BI market was less compared to 2011 while the NMS market depreciated in 2012. However, the entire Telecom software market is expected to grow this year as service providers would invest more in new network technologies. Strong demand for software as a service (SaaS), triple play services, Cloud BI, Mobile BI will drive the growth of telecom software market in 2013.

CONCLUSION


39

Microsoft 3%

Bada 1%Symbian 1%

Others 0%BlackBerry 3%

iOS 18%

Android 74%

Global Mobile Operating System Shipments (Q1 2013)



Utilities

Education & References

Music & Video

Media / News / Sports

Games

EnterTainment

Enterprise Application

Busines and Productivity

Maos & Navigation

Medical & Fitness

Social & Communication

0 5 10 15 20

1.9

2.7

3.4

5.8

8

8.7

10.8

11.3

13.2

15.5

18.8

Mobile App Market Share (2012-13

TELECOM SOFTWARE

Actual market size of

$ 12 bn

Expected to reach

$ 24.5 bn


Sumit Mathur I Prasad Rane

Student Team

40

SCOPE

ACTIVE INFRASTRUCTURE

The growing demand for high data rate & bandwidth-hungry applications, the acceptance of technology options such as SDN, data offloading, roll-out of LTE and deployment of IT infrastructure by new entrants in the banking sector are the factors that are expected to drive the growth of communication infrastructure sector in India. This vertical aims at analyzing the issues related to active and passive Infrastructure, cloud computing, VSAT and government initiatives to support green infrastructure and expansion of optical fibre network.

Government's decision to levy extra fee for holding spectrum beyond 4.4 MHz and 2.5 MHz on GSM and CDMAoperators respectively will cause private operators to pay ` 316 bn towards the fee. This decision has been challenged by the telcos in court. We predict that the issues regarding spectrum sharing will continue to remain uncertain and some needed clarity will come only when the courts give their verdict.

DATA CENTERS

Approved by EGoM but has been stayed by courts

Case heard in the Supreme Court (as of 26 Aug 2013)



Technology

2G Spectrum Sharing




Increase in demand of

data centers in health

care and BFSI sector

Demand is predicted to

increase substantially due

to high demand for cloud

computing services

Revenue: ` 17.20 bn Expected to cross

` 18 bn

41

The additional demand for computing in latest applications fuelled by exponential burst of data generation has made it imperative for the industry to look for robust, secure and dynamic data centers. Virtualization and Cloud Computing are two rapidly evolving technologies which will have an impact on the future of data centers. The adoption of these technologies is expected to be the key driver for data centers in India. The increasing interest towards central data storage for multimedia has resulted in growth of network attached storage devices and providing a convenient platform for streaming, sharing and remote access of content.

Rapid data growth has brought about hardware infrastructure challenges for the large and small enterprises. Third party data centers help in reduction of CAPEX & OPEX, thus they are seen as a possible solution to the problem. We believe investment in data center market would increase as India is witnessing remarkable growth in Web 2.0 users and smartphones.

Key Drivers: „ Increase in demand in BFSI and health sector„Increasingevolution ofVirtualization & Cloud Computing„Reduction in CAPEX and OPEX using third party data centers

In year 2012-13, the Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF) provided only ̀ 6.25 bn because the previous funds of ` 279.49 bn were under-utilized till the year 2013. Under provisioning of VPTs (Village Public Telephones), an agreement was signed in 2004 with BSNL to provide support for provisioning of VPTs in 62,443 sites. By the end of financial year 2013, 51,321 sites had been covered. 3,347 kiosks and 52,628 wire-line broadband connections in rural and far-flung areas have been setup under the “Rural Wire-line Broadband scheme”. In addition, 7,310 towers had been installed by the end of November 2012 and 15,971 BTS were commissioned at these towers by service providers for provisioning of mobile services under the “Shared Mobile Infrastructure Scheme”. Under National Optical Fibre Network (NOFN) Project, which aims to introduce high-speed broadband to over 250,000 village panchayats, three of the major projects covering all gram panchayats in three districts have been completed and provided with 100 Mbps bandwidth.USO Funds have not only been utilized for providing telephony and broadband connectivity in rural areas, but also for new initiatives such as gender based schemes, National Optical Fibre Network and Next Generation Networks.

GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES

Gender based schemes are used to preferably allocate broadband connections to women self-help groups. Recently, government has approved ` 30.46 bn subsidy to BSNL from the USO Fund for the roll out and management of 2,199 towers in naxal hit areas. The government has provided infrastructure status to the telecom tower provider industry. We believe this will prove beneficial for the tower providers as they would be authorized higher limit on external commercial borrowing, lower import duties, viability gap funding and exemption on excise duty ontelecom infrastructure equipment.We also anticipate that the government decision to increase the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in telecom sector from 74% to 100% will help in bringing much needed funds.

Key Drivers:

„ Infrastructure status to telecom tower industry„ 100% FDI in telecom industry

The growth in number of towers is expected to slow down this year caused by the saturation in urban areas and viability issues in rural areas. The rise in the debt component has made the industry cautious on investment which has compelled them to adopt passive infrastructure sharing to reduce their CAPEX and OPEX. At the end of FY 2012-2013,

PASSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE


PRÉVISION FORECAST

FOR FY 2013-14



Performance Indicators

1.77

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(E)

No. of Towers

Towers

(In Numbers)

Average Tenancy

4,25,000

Expected to reach

1.86

Expected to cross

4,42,030

the number of towers stood at 4,25,000 with an average tenancy of 1.77 which is expected to rise as a result of tower sharing being preferred in roll-out of 3G and 4G networks.The deployment pattern of towers is anticipated to be based on market demand with focus being on fill-in sites instead of new ones. The 3G tower installations are expected to increase as operation on higher frequency limits the coverage area. USO Funds incentive is also expected to increase the installation of towers in rural areas.

The recent litigation cases filed against harmful radiation from towers in densely populated areas has constrained the companies to reduce the number of towers. This has made companies adopt tower sharing with a greater emphasis.

Key Drivers: – Roll out of 3G/4G services– USO funds for towers in rural areas

Key Restraints:

– Reducing CAPEX using passive infrastructure sharing– Radiation issues in densely populated areas

India's structured cabling market recovered in FY 2012-13, due to increased demand for higher bandwidth and better technology. Organizations have been deploying Gigabit Ethernet as a solution to data explosion from HD video & VoIP. The continued growth in data centers has influenced the rise in demand for reliable cabling infrastructure.

The major challenges for the industry include volatility of copper pricing & non-availability of trained and skillful manpower. The adoption of green technology at no additional cost or degradation in performance is expected to augment the growth for the industry through its energy saving factor.

STRUCTURED CABLING

Key Drivers:

„ Adoption of Gigabit Ethernet„ Rise in number of data centers„ Push for green technologies

VSAT subscriber base has increased by 14.23% from 1,63,452 in FY 2011-12 to 1,79,830 in FY 2012-13. VSATs are largely being used in the banking sector to provide IPsec for ATMs and bank branches. The rise in the number of offsite-ATM base over the past few years has provided significant opportunities to the VSAT players in the market.Credit card machines, connection to loyalty program databases and other inventory management systems are being shifted to VSAT connectivity. E-Governance, SME broadband access, e-learning and military projects have also boosted the growth of VSAT market.

Use of high capacity Ka-band (18-28 GHz) satellites is increasing. It provides 40 times more bandwidth and speed compared to Ku-band (11.7-12.7 GHz) satellites for broadband applications. The cost of using VSAT connection instead of existing CDMA connections for credit card machines and various other inventory management systems is 20% higher, but it provides a service level guarantee. One of the major challenges being faced by VSAT Industry is bandwidth scarcity which has been aggravated by the lack of fresh allocation of bandwidth.

In Union Budget 2012, the Finance Minister of India cleared the Bill for providing RBI the power to issue new banking licenses. We believe this may attract many corporate houses to enter the banking sector which will ultimately push the demand of VSAT in BFSI sector.

Key Drivers:

Š Issuing of new banking licenses by RBIŠ Increase in the number of ATMsŠ Rising demand in BFSI sectorŠ E-governance projects

VSAT

42







No. of Installations

1,79,830

Expected to reach

1,97,395

Revenue: ` 16.90 bn Expected to cross

` 17.85 bn

It will continue to grow due to growth in the datacenters and rising demandin BSFI, IT/ITES, and Government sectors

Market is growing due to

demand for high

bandwidth and high

end technology


OPTICAL NETWORK

ENTERPRISE NETWORK EQUIPMENT

The optical fibre network in India is growing at a steady pace. The total fibre layout, till the end of FY 2012-13 stands at 7,28,507 km increasing by 2% from 7,14,367 Km in FY 2011-12.One of the objectives of the NTP 2012 is to achieve a minimum broadband speed of 2 Mbps by 2015 and 70% rural teledensity by 2017 which may fuel the growth of optical fibre market.

State owned companies such as BSNL and MTNL have already started deploying GPON equipment to provide FTTH/FTTB connection to achieve the minimum 2 Mbps broadband speed. The government has also approved a project for the creation of National Optical Fibre Network (NOFN) for providing broadband connectivity to all 2,50,000 gram panchayats which will support the growth of optical fibre in the market. All the sectors in the telecom industry including ISPs, telecom services providers, content providers, and cable TV operators will get fair and equal access to the NOFN for launching varied services in rural areas. As the deployment of 4G services has started, the demand for high capacity backhaul connections has also increased. Presently, 80-90% of the tower backhaulconnections use microwave links which are not adequate enough to support higher bandwidth capacities. We believe the optical network industry hold tremendous potential for replacement of the microwave links. However, the high cost of optical fibre, right of way issues and high cost of ownership are the major restraints to the growth of Optical Fibre.

Key Drivers: Š Increase in Rural penetrationŠ Demand for high data rate Š Increase in Smartphone PenetrationŠ Demand for backhaul connections

The enterprise network equipment industry has slowed down due to demand for low priced devices, emerging technologies and intense competition in the market. However, the constant growth of data based applications is driving the growth of the switches and routers market today. Moreover, the rollout of 4G/LTE will increase the demand in this market. Cloud computing, 3G and carrier Ethernet have been serving as the key drivers for the growth of enterprise network equipment market.Cloud computing, 3G and carrier Ethernet have been serving as the key drivers for the growth of enterprise network equipment market.

Software Defined Network (SDN) technology may have a positive impact on the Enterprise network equipment industry. However, we believe there is still uncertainty over its viability in the market as it is still in its nascent stage. The demand for integrated routers/switches that have multiple inbuilt capabilities such as firewalls, VPNs, content processing and unified communication solutions is on the rise. With the introduction of BYOD in the market, the enterprise network equipment market may gain popularity as these portable gadgets, which use different technologies and media streaming need to be connected.

Key Drivers: Š 3G/4G routers demandŠ Data and multimedia traffic growthŠ Advent of SDN & BYOD technologyŠ Demand for unified communication solutions and integrated router/switches

Increasing number of internet connected devices is leading to bandwidth constraints for the operators. Backhaul congestion may be reduced by adopting a few solutions such as high speed data access points, femto cell deployment, macro cell installation for 3G services & pico cells for enterprise segments.

RADIO ACCESS






43





Total fibre layout is

7,28,507 km

Expected to cross

7,50,000 km

Constant growth of data applications have been driving the market

Advent of SDN and BYODmay further increase thegrowth

Routers :

Revenue reached ` 32 bn

Expected to reach

` 35.48 bn

Switches:Revenue reached ` 48 bn

Expected to reach ` 52 bn

Advent of data offloading

Substantial increase in data offloading to reduce the congestion in cellular network

Government's plans to promote In-Building Solutions (IBS) and Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) in coordination with the Ministry of Urban Development have been stated in NTP 2012. We believe the burgeoning construction industry which includes malls and multiplexes is also expected to further boost the growth of IBS & Wi-Fi market.

Key Drivers:

Š Advent of data offloading due to heavy increase in data trafficŠ Burgeoning Construction industry

Through NTP-2012, Government has introduced measures to encourage use of green telecom infrastructure and check carbon footprint (carbon credit policy) which is expected to drive the green technology infrastructure market.

GREEN TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

GSMA and Bharti Infratel are working in collaboration to convert 1000 Bharti Infratel towers into green sites. This will mark down Greenhouse Gas (GHG) carbon emissions by approximately 11000 tons as it will limit the use of diesel. A few measures to further reduce these emissions include the Green Towers P7 program, Bharti Infratel under which over 1,200 solar powered towers; free cooling units, integrated power management systems (IPMS) have been commissioned. Government's approval for using hybrid power for 20% of urban towers and 50% rural towers is expected to take these initiatives further. Major challenges being faced in adoption of green technology infrastructure include few areas for harnessing renewable energy. In order to produce green energy, the data centers need to be shifted to such places, which would not only incur cost but will also, invite security concerns.

We predict that infrastructure sharing will play a pivotal role in downsizing the capital expenditure and operating expenditure and optimizing the profit margin for operators. The rise in cloud market, exponential growth in digital data and demand for higher data rate are expected to mark a rise in the communication infrastructure market. The various initiatives taken by government are also expected to foster growth in communication infrastructure in India.

CONCLUSION

44





Government support to

adopt green telecom

infrastructure

Many operators are expected to opt for Green infrastructure to reduce carbon emission


Yashesh Amichandwala | Shrinivas Jadhav

Student Team

SCOPE

PERSONAL COMPUTING

The present consumer electronics market is characterized by the presence of multiple suppliers, diverse variety of products, technologies and constantly fluctuating prices. This vertical provides an insight into the latest trends in Consumer Electronics market which is largely influenced by consumer preferences derived from price, style, specifications, performance, mobility and portability.

Globally 75.6 mn PCs were shipped in Q2 2013-14, showing a 10.9% decline Y-o-Y. The decline can be attributed to

consumer inclination towards smart devices over PCs. As India is an emerging market, inexpensive tablets are becoming the first choice for most consumers resulting in a decline in mini notebook penetration.

PC shipments in India in 2013 were 11 mn units depicting a Y-o-Y growth of 3.5%. The consumer PC consumption in India recorded a remarkable growth of 20.2% in FY 2012-13 over FY 2011-12.




Others 41%

Hp 16%

LENOVO 15%

DELL 11%

ACER 10%ASUS 7%

GLOBAL PC MARKET SHARE Q1,2013-14

45

Expected to come down

to 304.57 mn units

Global PC shipments:

352.7 mn units

Indian PC shipments:

11 mn units

Expected to cross

11.8 mn units

Innovative features such as Hybrid SD, HD screens, large memory capacity have evolved device market to support multi touch gestures. These features require better system performance, graphics processing and provide better battery life at low power consumption.

The recent products characterized by the above mentioned features include chips from Intel, Sandy's bridge processor.

In Q1 2013 a total of 426 million units of mobile phones were shipped globally with a 0.7% Y-o-Y growth. China's mobile phone sales witnessed an increase of 7.5% in Q1 2013-14. Samsung maintained its leadership in the market and increased its market share by 13% whereas Nokia's share decreased by 4.9% in the Q1 2013-14.

Feature phone sales have dropped exponentially due to shifting customer preferences towards phones having sophisticated, multi-functional media enabled capabilities. This is the key reason behind Smartphone market penetration gradually overtaking that of feature phone market.

As developing countries prefer feature phones because of affordability, companies are introducing new models with better features. Facebook's move to provide free usage on feature phones is expected to contribute to the sales of feature phones.

GLOBAL HANDSET MARKET

INDIAN HANDSET MARKET

SMARTPHONES

Indian handset market witnessed a 24% Y-o-Y growth with the number of shipments increasing from 48.8 mn units in Q1 FY 2012-13 to 60.7 mn units in Q1 for FY 2013-14.

Key Drivers:

Š Low priced mobile phonesŠ EMI and buyback Schemes

A total of 210 mn units of smartphones were shipped globally in Q1 2013-14 with an increase of 34.8% Y-o-Y. Samsung is the leading manufacturer with Android being the leader in the OS market globally. Enterprise consumers have shown a preference for Smartphones due to convenience of use and multi-fold functionality.

In India, Micromax and Karbonn have acquired one-third of market due to their economical prices. While developed countries seem to be stagnating; India being an emerging market is expected to see increased growth in the sector.




GLOBAL SMARTPHONE MARKET SHARE Q1,2013-14

46


Others 38%Samsung 23.6%

LG 3.7%

Nokia 14.8%

Apple 9%

ZTE 3.4%

GLOBAL HANDSET MARKET SHARE Q1,2013-14

Huawei 3.6%





Others 37.9%Samsung 30.8%

Apple 18.2%

Huawei 4.4%

ZTE 3.8%

LG4.8%

Expected to cross

1916 mn units

Total shipments:

1746.17 mn units

Total shipments:

218 mn units

Expected to reach

260.2 mn units

Global shipments :

722.4 mn units

Expected to cross

923 mn units

Indian shipments :

16.3 mn units

Expected to reach

31.16 mn units

Key Drivers:

Š Increase in penetration of smartphonesŠ Technological up gradation of products

The Global Tablet market witnessed a 78.4% Y-o-Y growth in FY 2012-13 which exceeded 128 mn units globally. Lack of new features resulted in iPad shipments declining by 14% in Q2 2013-14 coming down to 14.6 mn.

The Indian tablet market is emerging with the sales of inexpensive tablets from Micromax, Datawind, Karbonn and Zync that offer good quality, better performance and durability at a cheaper rate.

Key Drivers:

Š PortabilityŠ Rich user experienceŠ Better specifications at low price Š Reliable OS

TABLETS

E-BOOK READER

Key Drivers:

Š Declining average selling price of smartphonesŠ The roll-out of data-centric 4G networksŠ New entrants with low priced products

In Q1 2013-14, the digital camera global market observed a fall of 43% Y-o-Y with a total shipment of 14.1 mn units. This steep drop can be attributed to rising smartphone sales. As a result, camera manufacturers are concentrating on marketing and sales of higher priced models. These models have features like face recognition, auto focus and auto exposure, Wi-Fi connectivity, touch display. Mirror-less cameras producing high quality images are now being introduced at a premium price in the market.

As the manufacturers are promoting high priced models, the SLR market which is dominated by Canon and Nikon could also be affected by price competition.

DIGITAL CAMERA




GLOBAL TABLET MARKET SHARE Q2, 2013-14

48




OTHERS 39%APPLE 32%

SAMSUNG 18%

LENOVO 3%

ACER 3%

ASUS 5%

Others 25.7% Micromax 18.8%

Karbonn 10.9%

Samsung 32.7%

Nokia 5.9%

Sony 5.9%

INDIAN SMARTPHONE MARKET SHARE Q1,2013-14

Canon 23%

Nikon 21%

Sony 15%

Samsung 9%

Fujifilm 8%

Others 24%

GLOBAL DIGITAL CAMERA MARKET SHARE Q1,2013-14



47

Global tablet shipments :

144.5 mn units

Expected to reach

241 mn units

Indian tablet shipments :

2.66 mn units

Expected to cross

4.4 mn units

Total sales globally:

98.14 mn units


to 59.16 mn units

Global sales :

27.5mn units


to 22.7 mn units

The worldwide shipment of E-book reader in FY 2012-13 stood at 27.5 mn units and generated revenue of about ` 859 mn. The major E-book reader companies include Amazon, Sony, Abrnes and Noble. First adaptive E-book, launched by McGraw-Hill in Canada, uses advanced search engines to benefit students by enhanced performance, providing dynamic and personalized experiences. The E-book readers have always been offered at affordable rates but have witnessed decline in penetration due to customer's inclination towards smartphones and tablets.

Key Drivers:

Š Low pricing Š Demand for portability

The worldwide shipment of gaming consoles in FY 2012-13 was 56.75 mn. In 2012-13, Sony's Playstation 3 was the best-selling console, with 12.73 mn units sold worldwide. The second best-selling console was Xbox 360 which sold 11.1 mn units. Nvidia also entered the portable gaming consoles industry this year with its product Nvidia Shield. The new features in portable gaming devices are inbuilt camera, interactive video interface, Bluetooth, HD screens, inbuilt mp3 player.

Key Drivers:

Š Interactive video interfaceŠ Fluctuation in price

The companies in this segment are Apple, Archos, Microsoft, SanDisk, Sony and Creative. ipods can also serve as external data storage devices. One can store, view and share music videos, photos, movies like any other media player. Approximately 4.6 mn iPods were shipped in Q2 2013-14 out of which 50% were iPod touch. ipod sales declined in Q2 2013-14.

GAMING CONSOLES

PORTABLE MEDIA PLAYERS

Key Drivers:

Š Demand for application oriented media playersŠ Multiple functionality

In the year 2012-13 with a growth of 13% Y-o-Y, 250 mn units of set top box were shipped globally. Pace is the global market leader followed by Cisco shipping 19.5 mn units in Fy 2012-13.

STB's in the current market have features like apps, 3D viewing and games along with HDMI v1.3 support, hard drive for integrated PVR support and USB 2.0/3.0 input for external memory.

There is a rise in STB market in India. In Q1 2013-14, 5.3 million units of STB's were shipped and Skyworth came across as the market leader with 23.3% market share, followed by Cisco and COSHIP with 11.8% and 7.8% shares, respectively. Conditional Access System (CAS) providesthe exact number of users using cable TV thus increasing the revenue collected by the Government. STB's are being preferred by users as the highcapacity digital signals result in more number of channels, better audio and video quality and select and pay option.

Better models of STB'swith more features are expected to be introduced in the market. Google is developing an Andriod-powered STB which would not require an auxiliary power device. Apple is also revamping its interface on the lines of ipad icon interface.

Key Drivers:

Š Limitations of analog systems have increased demand of digital STBsŠ Fall in STB pricesŠ Government initiatives

In 2012, 0.33 mn units of smart watches were shipped globally. Smart watches empower the customers by additional features such as E-wallet, news, sports, weather, stock, horoscopes, etc. Smart watches enable downloading of various apps and provide text message or E-mail notifications. They also allow users to control apps on their phones.

SET TOP BOX

SMART WATCHES







48



Global sales :

56.8mn units


to 43.8 mn units

Shipments :

250 mn units

Expected to cross

257.6 mn units

Total Shipments:

32.44 mn units

Estimated to come down

to 24 mn units

Users can answer calls and start playing music or fast-forward to the next song by tapping buttons on the smart watch. With apps and sensors on the phone, users can keep a track of their workouts.

Sony's new smart watch is the perfect example of such smart watches. Smart watches are the next big thing in the Tech products. All these factors have driven big players such as Samsung, Apple, etc to enter this segment.

Key Drivers:

Š In addition to showing time a variety of helpful features being provided in the smart watches.Š Can be used as accessories to smartphones

Smart TV witnessed a growth of 8% YoY with 12.7 mn units shipped globally in Q1 2013. In 2012, 66 mn units were shipped with increase of 27% YoY. This is mainly due to the declining prices and high demand even from emerging markets such as India and China. In India, approximately 2 mn smart TVs were sold which comprised 20% of new TV sales. Chinese vendors TCL, Skyworth, and Hisense are rapidly growing their market share on the strength of the Chinese domestic market.

With 26% market share Samsung leads the market followed by LG and Sony with 16% and 11% share, respectively.

Smart TVs also have Wi-Fi compatibility that has improved the quality of internet experience,making it easier to download and access applications.

Key Drivers:

Š Easy access to content and high picture-quality.Š Falling ASPs of Smart TvsŠ Increase in expenditure by consumers on electronic items with multi-function

Smart glasses are devices that not only act as a display but also give the user a transparent overlay on-top of the real-world. Worldwide 50,000 smart glasses were shipped in the year 2012-13.

Smart glasses provide information like the position, location and the state to its user as they have an attached camera. They also have a Bluetooth accessible headset with a micro projector which provides floating images.

SMART TV

SMART GLASSES

To captivate consumer interest, Epson (World's largest Projector manufacturer) has developed hands free, android powered 3D glasses in collaboration with APX labs (software vendor).

The success of Smart Glasses will depend primarily on the applications developed for it. They will be useful and successful in true sense only when they have the ability to provide information like nutritional information, live updates for travel, location reviews, providing information about the previous encounters which will be helpful in making decisions, etc.The smart device and smart glass market is expected to grow at a tremendous rate.

Inthinc Technology Solutions Inc. is a global telematics, fleet management and driver safety solutions provider. It has integrated Electronic Driver Vehicle Inspection Report (DVIR) to its waySmart(R) fleet management solution. Increasing awareness of road safety is one of the key factors contributing to the market growth of Global Telematics assisted by adoption of the voice recognition feature in telematics systems. The market is expected to see high growth in near future driven by increasing importance of safety.

DDB technology has been founded by the collaboration of prominent organizations including Videocon D2H, Irdeto, Nivio, Faroudja, Strata and Philips under the leadership of ST Microelectronics

This platform is expected to enrich the TV viewing experience as it facilitates the reception of digital signals without a set-top box, possesses cloud computing abilities and has the ability to convert 2D content into live-like 3D quality. Thus, it makes direct transmission possible by eliminating the need to downscale signals received from the satellite.

Pcs and Laptops are now slowly been replaced by smart devices such as android powered phones and tablets. There is an increased demand among consumers for a single device that enables multitasking. Hence, the consumer preference is shifting towards smartphones and tablets, in both developed and developing markets. Increase in sales of smartphones and tablets is one of the main reason for the declining sales of PCs, Laptops, Digital Camera, E-Book reader, Portable Gaming consoles and Media players.

GLOBAL TELEMATICS

DIGITAL DIRECT BROADCAST (DDB)

CONCLUSION



49

In the smartphone market, companies like Samsung and Apple are losing market share as Chinese and local manufacturers are offering same product features at very low price.

STB and Smart TV market is on a rise owing to the high quality viewing experience and mandatory digitization of cable networks. Smart Devices like Smart watches and Smart glasses are expected to be the latest trend in technology products, with Smart watches being the next big thing after smartphones.



50

BROADBAND

Arnab Majumdar | Avinash Patra

Student Team

51BROADBAND

SCOPE

SUBSCRIBER BASE

This vertical provides an insight into the current scenario of wired and wireless broadband market in India. Various parameters like DSL, VoIP, Mobile Broadband and IPTV have been analyzed on the basis of factors influencing the overall trend of broadband penetration in India.

Broadband subscriber base in India increased from 14.68 mn to 15.09 mn leading to a decreased Y-o-Y growth rate of 8.21% in 2013 over 18.06% in 2012. Moreover, data usage for India is expected to grow drastically as number of ISPs have increased (162 presently) along with increased adoption of 3G/4G services and high penetration of smartphones and tablets.

Broadband subscribers in India are expected to increase owing to proposed LTE deployments and government's NTP policy 2012 & Unified License service specifications to provide broadband access in 200,000 villages across India.

Key Drivers:

Š Increased usage of bandwidth intensive applications and servicesŠ Government's rural broadband project (NTP 2012)Š Optical fiber penetration across IndiaŠ Increase in smartphone/phablet penetration

Fiber to the Home (FTTH) is a unique technology which provides fixed access platform to deliver high speed broadband in the range of 256 Kbps to 100 Mbps. Major telecom operators are collaborating with builders and optical fiber manufacturers to provide FTTH services. BSNL and AKSH Optic Fiber launched FTTH for the first time in India in 68 buildings across Jaipur. Ericsson and Radius Infratel deployed FTTH technology in Commonwealth

FTTH



Subscriber Base:

15.09 mn

Expected to reach

17 mn

Games Village in 2010 whereas MTNL and Airtel have initiated FTTH services in Mumbai and Delhi & Tata DoCoMo in Bangalore.

Companies including Radius Infratel are planning to provide 9 cities with broadband speed of upto 1 Gbps. FTTH is expected to achieve better results in India as the government is taking efforts in this direction by deploying optical fiber at Panchayat level, lifting VoIP restrictions and aiming at increasing the subscriber base to 600 mn by 2020 and providing minimum 2 Mbps data rate with 100 Mbps on-demand data rate.

Key Drivers:

Š Increase in demand for VoIP servicesŠ Telco-Builders collaborative effortsŠ Government initiatives (NTP 2012)Š Need for LTE backhaul to provide bandwidth intensive applications

VoIP (voice over Internet Protocol) is the use of IP telephony for a set of facilities used to manage the delivery of voice information over the Internet. The key advantage of VoIP is that it can be accessed using various devices such as smartphones, personal computers or any Internet enabled device. The adoption rate of VoIP services has grown with the launch of 3G technology (providing speeds upto 7Mbps) and increased smartphone penetration in India. The voice revenues have been neutralized so far, thereby preventing cannibalization. Internet telephony usage in India has increased by 1.5 times compared to 2011; from 153.92 minutes (in mn) in 2011 it has reached to 236.40 minutes (in mn) in 2012. Unified Licensees can now offer VoIP and interconnectivity with PSTN/Mobile Network, which was illegal earlier. This could serve as a driving factor towards increase in VoIP revenues.

Key Drivers:

Š Unified License approval in offering VoIP and interconnectivity with PSTN/Mobile NetworkŠ Increased smartphone and mobile broadband penetrationŠ Demand for IP telephony

VoIP

DSL

WIRELESS BROADBAND (Wi-Fi and WiMAX)

IPTV

In FY 2012-13, DSL constituted 84.83% of total subscriber base witnessing CAGR of 11.81%. The government has taken several measures to increase broadband penetration in India by coordinating with various agencies in India.

Key Drivers:

Š Government initiativesŠ Decreasing price of fixed broadband

Operators like Airtel, Idea and Reliance have chosen LTE over WiMAX since WiMAX lacks backward compatibility for mobile devices. As more subscribers start using 3G and 4G services, there are expectations of heavy data traffic in backhaul (about 40 Gbps). Nearly 80% of cell sites in India have a microwave based backhaul link which can carry up to 400 Mbps of traffic at a distance of 100 Kms. Indian operators are considering the use of Wi-Fi for data offloading vis-à-vis an alternative data access method which serves as a viable mode for operators to offload data traffic and ensure quality of service to their subscribers. 2.3 GHz for LTE will result in poor indoor coverage and lesser outdoor range.

Key Drivers:

Š Increase in penetration of smartphones and tablets Š Backhaul capacity constraintsŠ Increase in connectivity & coverage

BROADBAND


52









DSL Subscribers:

12.70 mn

Expected to cross

13.5 mn

Wi-Fi market size in

India: ` 7.2 bn

Expected to cross

` 7.6 bnInternet Telephony

(India) usage: 236.40

mn minutes

Expected to cross

300 mn minutes

Subscriber base:

0.7 mn

Expected to reach

0.85 mn

IPTV services may be classified into three main groups:

Š Live television with or without interactively broadcasting current content;Š Time-shifted programming: Catch-up TV (replays a TV show broadcasted earlier), start-over TV (replays the current TV show);Š Video on demand (VOD): Browse a catalog of videos, not related to TV programming.

The quarterly growth for Q4 2012-13 in India was 20.5% and it is expected to reach a CAGR of 25% by the end of FY 2013-14. IPTV adoption mainly depends upon broadband penetration in India. With the NTP 2012, the government has focused on increasing the broadband penetration and its access speed in India. Operators are planning to roll out wireless STBs (Set Top Box) enabling customers to access IPTV anywhere.

Key Drivers:

Š Increase in DSL penetration. Š Government initiatives for FTTH and operators's backhaul requirements which can be fulfilled through FTTH

will drive uptake of IPTV.

Indian telecom industry has seen rapid technological developments over the past with rising data usage now being seen as a growth driver for the industry. The broadband subscriber base is expected to see an exponential growth over the next few years with fixed broadband contributing only 10%. Mobile broadband is expected to provide a solution to major challenges faced by the broadband industry like poor fiber connectivity, availability of affordable smart-devices and next-generation network rollouts. Major factors driving the growth of mobile broadband include need for innovative services, increased productivity, customer retention, competitive business environment and falling ARPU. Growing at a CAGR of more than 50 percent, mobile broadband is expected to account for more than 50% of broadband subscribers in 2014.

NIXI, a non- profit organization, has been set up to assist ISPs to analyze and solve routing the domestic traffic within the country giving better QoS (in terms of latency) and induce cost reduction by saving international bandwidth. NIXI has been developed as a neutral Internet Exchange point in view of managing several cases between Indian ISPs who were connecting to each other from outside India in Singapore and Europe.

MOBILE BROADBAND

NIXI (National Internet Exchange of India)

NIXI is currently functioning in 7 major cities in India including Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad and is expected to cover Guwahati, Mohali and Lucknow in near future as well. NIXI is expected to provide IP address allocation services giving Indian ISPs an option to choose between NIXI and Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (APNIC) as a preference to obtain IP addresses.

The Routing and Traffic policy has been developed to address the concerns of the large as well as the small ISPs keeping the larger national interest in mind by promoting domestic hosting of content and saving foreign exchange by keeping domestic traffic within India. According to the Basic Routing Policy, an ISP at any NIXI node must at a minimum announce all its regional routes to the NIXI router at that NIXI location through a single BGP (Border Gateway Protocol) session. This will guarantee the exchange of regional traffic within a NIXI node and is termed as forced regional multi-lateral peering under the policy. According to the Traffic Policy, based on the amount of traffic exchanged at a NIXI node between ISP A and ISP B, charges would be levied as per the rate of agreement. In the event of a dispute of settlement between service providers, NIXI will have the right to intervene and its decision in the matter will be binding on both parties.

India is divided into 23 service areas consisting of 19 Telecom Circle Service and 4 metro service areas for providing Unified LIcense (UL). Unified License allows service operators to provide voice and non-voice services including VAS services such as Voice Mail, Audiotex services, Video Conferencing, Videotex, E-Mail, Closed User Group (CUG),NLD/ILD and VOIP with interconnectivity with PSTN/PLMN by deploying circuit or packet switched equipment. DoT issued detailed guidelines about the license and spectrum allocation under the license in a public announcement.

The government is expected to allow Internet Service Providers (ISP) to offer voice services using the broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum which they had acquired through auction in 2010, under the new unified license regime. A committee constituted by the department of telecommunications (DoT) recommends companies pay an additional fee equal to the difference between the entry fee for the Unified Access Service License and the entry fee of the ISP license, besides the fee for the migration to a unified license. For instance, Reliance Infotel which had acquired BWA spectrum and an ISP license in 2010 will have to pay ̀ 16.5 bn if they want to offer voice services using this spectrum.

BWA SPECTRUM & UL

BROADBAND


53

Under the present license, it does not have a permit to offer traditional voice services using BWA spectrum. However, the Cellular Operators Association of India has opposed the prospect of ISP licensees being allowed to offer voice services using BWA spectrum under the new unified license regime in the interest of GSM operators.

In a recent discussion, the DoT committee also said the unified licensing regime should have the cafeteria approach for niche service operators, including internet service, international long distance, national long distance, very small aperture terminal, voice mail, audio text, etc. All licensees who wish to expand the scope of their license or service to include any additional service or service area will have to migrate to a unified license. This cafeteria approach of the unified licensing will provide smaller service providers an opportunity to grow.

Ultra-Wideband (UWB) provides a new technology for short-range ultra-high speed communications in the frequency band 3.1 GHz to 10.6 GHz. It supports a bit rate greater than 100 Mbps within a 10-meter radius for wireless personal area communications. It can be majorly applied in the field of RADAR systems, vehicular systems and medical imaging system. The various advantages provided by the system include low cost, low power consumption, reduced interference, high transfer rate and security. UWB has till now been deployed for military and civilian-government use. Companies such as Intel, Time Domain and many more are now expected to provide UWB devices at a consumer level; thus implementing home networking applications including wireless audio and multimedia transmissions

Key Drivers:

Š High data rateŠ Low cost

India has experienced slow adoption of technologies that was observed in 3G rollout, initiated in 2008 with MTNL's launch of 3G enabled Mobile and Data services followed by BSNL in 2009. Private operators ventured into 3G after the spectrum auction in 2010. Airtel initiated 4G services in India in 2013 followed by Reliance's launch of 4G using TD-LTE. Various technologies such as LTE and FTTH have seen slow growth rates due to current situations. With a rapidly growing customer base and bandwidth requirement, Gigabit PON (GPON) is expected to emerge as a leading optical access technology in the last mile.

ULTRA-WIDE BAND

NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES

Key Drivers:

Š TD-LTE developmentŠ Hybrid microwave backhaul market

The rising popularity of connected devices – smart phones, tablets and laptops has led to increase in demand of mobile broadband capacity and coverage. Indian operators are expected to face capacity challenges as 3G and 4G services are rolled out; hence measures need to be devised to avoid network congestion. Backhaul networks need to be upgraded from the existing microwave backhaul infrastructure to incorporate new services. Though fiber provides scalability to address the increase in traffic by 3G and 4G users yet it is difficult to deploy in dense urban or remote rural areas; hence networks are expected to remain dependent on microwave. Hybrid microwave backhaul is a key trend and is evolving towards IP radio. Femto-cell and E-band (70/80 GHz, point-to-point backhaul solution) technologies are likely to play a major role in microwave backhaul deployments in India. Upgrading existing infrastructure by combining microwave radio (TDM and Ethernet) would lead to optimized bandwidth and increased throughput thereby reducing the CAPEX. The government has taken initiatives in this direction such as National Optical Fiber Network project which aims to provide backhaul connectivity to village panchayats by extending the existing optic fiber network.

Key Drivers:

Š HSPA/HSPA+ across the 3GPP worldŠ LTE deployment by 3GPP2 companiesŠ Increase in demand of mobile broadbandŠ Government policy

With 70% of India's population residing in villages, the government's inclusive growth agenda need to address the growth and development issues in rural India. Broadband penetration in India is around 10% of the total internet user base which is a key challenge in creating an equitable society where the citizens have universal access to information and knowledge. Rural BPOs could become a viable option, offering attractive employment opportunities to village youth with access to high-speed internet services. This in turn would decrease the current migration rates of rural population to urban areas, reduce rural India's dependency on agriculture and contribute towards growth of private consumption.

BACKHAUL

RURAL BROADAND

BROADBAND


54

Key Drivers:

Š Government policyŠ Rural infrastructure development

TRAI has set-up new parameters for QoS pertaining to broadband services to maintain transparency, monitor standards in services, assess performance levels and protect consumer interest. A few parameters include activation time of broadband connection, fault repair or service restoration time, response time to the customer for assistance, connection speed and billing issues.

TRAI monitors compliance on QoS strictly and operators can be levied a penalty of up to ̀ 1 mn in case of submission of false compliance report on quality of broadband services, ` 50,000 per parameter in case of inability to meet QoS. Additionally, in case of breach of standards, a penalty upto ` 100,000 per parameter is expected to be levied on service provider for each contravention. The government is expected to encourage consumer awareness about compliance to ensure better services.

GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS

BROADBAND EQUIPMENT

CONCLUSION

Broadband equipment market is expected to experience an increased growth rate in future. Launch of technologies such as 3G, 4G and FTTH provides tremendous scope for innovation in end devices, infrastructure and network maintenance. ZTE is currently working on 2 projects for BSNL to provide hardware for both their micro Ethernet network and their rural broadband project. India is presently one of the top three markets for GSM networks and companies across the world are ready for the upcoming 3G and TD-LTE tenders.

Though the growth rate of the Indian broadband market has increased in FY 2012-13, rural broadband penetration remained on a lower side. Increase in rural penetration can play an integral role in enhancing broadband penetration in India. Broadband, being one of the rapidly growing sectors of telecom is expected to contribute significantly to the rise in revenue for the telecom industry.

BROADBAND


55

VAS AND MOBILITY

Ankita Singh | Sanket Deshpande

Student Team

56 VAS AND MOBILITY

SCOPE

MOBILE INTERNET

Increasing proliferation of mobile services has provided an opportunity to deliver all types of Mobile Value Added Services (MVAS) to the masses through innovative trends adopted by Indian Telecom Industry. This vertical tries to explore current trends in Mobile Internet, m-Entertainment, m-Commerce, m-Advertising, and m-Utility by analyzing their key drivers.

The diversification of internet services and the flexibility to access the same from multiple devices has led to an increase in the mobile Internet users since 2009.

The growth of mobile internet provides a new set of challenges and opportunities to the businesses, regulators, and the consumers.

With the increase usage of 3G, having seamless functioning of internet services on the mobile phones has become possible and feasible. But what makes mobile Internet unique is how it is being used to consume digital content for the purpose of entertainment along with work.

Globally, the most frequently used mobile Internet websites are social networking sites such as Facebook, Google Plus, Flickr, and Twitter. Other popular services being accessed from the mobile handset include Instant messaging, search engine, browsing, email, music download, as well as interactive services such as live news, horoscopes, and cricket.

Key Drivers:

Š Increasing smartphone penetrationŠ Demand of mobile appŠ Mobile money transferŠ m-health applications



Global Revenue:

$ 11.46 bn

Expected to reach

$ 13.3 bn

MVAS

The MVAS market is one of the major drivers for the growth of the Indian Telecom Industry. With focus from the stakeholders and constant support from the regulating authority, faster development for MVAS is expected. Some of the major VAS services provided by the operators include Instant Messaging, E-mail, Push, Ring Tones, Wallpapers, Voice Alerts, Social Networking Sites, and Unicode etc. In India, maximum no. of users prefers free VAS services in comparison to the paid ones. The paid services such as ringtones, hello tunes, missed call alerts etc. are the only ways through which VAS providers can generate revenue. The traditional MVAS comprises mostly of entertainment and SMS based services. The new age of VAS shall be driven by enhanced content, higher data usage, need for better handsets with the ability to download apps. Some of the developments that we can expect in the near future of M-VAS are:

Mobile Advertisement

Improved connectivity will allow richer and interactive advertisement in comparison to the current SMS based advertisements.

Local language Content

With the linguistic diversity of India, one needs to have the content in local languages, to appeal to a larger group of users.

Rural MVAS

The untapped rural market can be seen as a major opportunity for the industry, with services like LBS, Local language and right content adding value to the offering. Thus understanding the Indian mobile consumer and utilizing the full potential of the mobile device is the next step in the Mobile Revolution.

Key Drivers:

Š Increasing mobile penetrationŠ Increasing consumer demand, awareness, and business need of service providersŠ Government mandate for inclusive growthŠ Tapping the rural market with innovative applications

Mobile advertising has a better reach than Internet or online advertising creating greater visibility among end users. When users view content on their mobiles, either through mobile websites or mobile applications, they provide an opportunity to advertisers to reach out to their target audience.

India is still in a nascent stage of mobile advertising and media consumption is greater on other platforms. Yet the large market size coupled with growing mobile penetrations make India a favourable market for global internet advertising giants such as Google, InMobi, and Apple's iAd.

Mobile advertising has emerged as an integral part of any brand's marketing campaign today. It has become an important creativity and engagement tool for brands and aims to fulfill the gap that traditional media left out. Today, rich media ads allow consumers to interact in a non-intrusive manner. For example, users could tap to watch a video, get a 360 degrees view of a product, locate a store, call a dealer and return to the content. Higher Internet speeds promises enhanced user experience, but rich media technology has evolved to an extent where immersive user experience is possible with lower data speeds. With the increasing popularity of the Mobile Internet, this form of marketing is poised to achieve a significant reach.

MOBILE ADVERTISING

VAS AND MOBILITY


57

23%

8%

60%

2%

7%

Active Internet Users usingInternet Through Mobile Phone

CommunicationsEntertainmentOnline ServicesE-CommerceInformation Search





Revenue in India :

` 330 bn

Expected to reach

` 395 bnGlobal Revenue:

$ 12.8 bn

Expected to reach

$ 18.68 bn

At a top level, mobile advertising could include:

Š Display advertising - A type of advertising that comes in several forms, including banner ads, rich media and more.

Š SMS or text-based advertising - Most mobile phone users in India have been exposed to SMS-based advertising.

Š Search advertising - Advertisers display ads when a consumer searches for something on the Internet.

The advent of 3G and 4G/LTE will bring better video quality and faster Internet access enabling easy viewing of advertisements, short ad clippings, and jingles, which have until now been restricted to television and Internet. Mobile advertising brings innovative advertising strategies and will provide opportunity for advertisers to attract the target audience.

Key Drivers:

Š Cost effectivenessŠ Extensive use of social networking.Š Increase in Smartphone's usage

Mobile Commerce is E-commerce for the next generation with enhanced connectivity and wider reach. According to Mobile Health Market Report 2013-2017, M-Commerce is expected to contribute more than 50% of E-Commerce revenues during the next five years. M-Commerce has presented an enormous opportunity for business owners to increase sales and customer loyalty by venturing into banking, travel, entertainment, information, and retail sectors. It also provides an opportunity to integrate rural India into the financial system by utilizing the mobile penetration in India. Smarter application and secured portals are expected to act as drivers for the growth of services such as Mobile Banking, Mobile Ticketing, Mobile Brokerage and Mobile Purchases. M-Commerce faces key challenges in its growth due to various factors including low credit card penetration, less acceptance to newer methods, low internet penetration rate and many others. All these have resulted in RBI taking a collaborative effort with the government,

MOBILE COMMERCE

financial institutions and telecom service providers to establish a secure internetworking and technology infrastructure for M-Commerce, making way for mobiles to be used as wallet and payment instruments. Thus, in this new fast growing world of commerce the concept of a traditional website or in-store purchasing funnel becomes obsolete as mobile devices bridge the gap between online and offline by means of Mobile Commerce.

Key Drivers:

Š More secure Gateways and convenience.Š Application Development market.Š Fast proliferation of Smartphones and Tablets.Š Increasing availability of credit as well as disposable income and economic development.

Mobile phones have brought about phenomenal changes in the lifestyles and perception of consumers about entertainment, which is evident from the shift in the use of mobile phones to listen to music, mobile gaming over traditional video games and many more. Mobile is being synonymized with entertainment as it drives innovation and changes the dynamics of the gaming world, mobile music, and mobile TV to a stratum higher. This growth has been catalyzed by the use of smartphones, tablets and android as well as development of smarter applications, innovations by service providers, increasing penetration of 3G & 4G, and connectivity esp. to social networking sites. While mobile services are becoming increasingly popular, there are a number of constraints which limit the opportunities for market growth like handset screen size, capacity and battery life, network speed and coverage, cost of data services, and Industry structure. Mobile Entertainment is expected to see faster growth rates if the solutions to these challenges being faced are implemented.

Key Drivers:

Š Anywhere, Anytime Accessibility.Š Increasing Mobile and 3G Penetration.Š Product InnovationŠ Supply side Competition

MOBILE ENTERTAINMENT

VAS AND MOBILITY


58





Global Revenue :

$ 130 bn

Expected to reach

$ 152.62 bn

Global Revenue:

$ 12.67 bn

Expected to touch

$ 17.83 bn

Revenue in India :

$ 5 bn

Expected to reach

$ 6.8 bn

M2M

M-UTILITY

M-banking

M2M communications provide opportunities to use mobile networks in a new way. It is expected to provide additional revenue streams to cellular operators by undergoing a transformation for delivering a complete M2M solution and designing lucrative business models to realize the potential of this segment. M2M is being used presently in health managing applications, utilities, logistics, transport, retail and security but India is at a very nascent stage of adopting these technologies due to higher cost, less experience, unknown sizing of platform, less adaptability, and acceptability of Technology. Government initiatives such as UID (Aadhar), smart metering for electricity supply in Bangalore, financial inclusion programs, and other such efforts can bring standardization and a more integrated approach in adoption of M2M solutions. The new era of machines is expected to bring new possibilities for businesses.

Key Drivers:

Š Innovative models to augment M2M offerings.Š Telcos attempting to increase ARPU.Š Advances in Wireless technologies.Š Affordable pricing of data cards and plansŠ Data driven 3G services such as video and multi-media based entertainment services

Covering M-HEALTH, M-AGRICULTURE, M-EDUCATION, M-GOVERNANCE & M-BANKING

Mobile utility services are expected to see better adoption in India with increasing smartphone and tablet penetration. Operators are putting efforts to package these services in a format which will make them accessible to all.

M-Health provides a viable solution to the problem of unequal distribution in healthcare. The current services provided in India are: Telemedicine helplines (providing information on immediate action steps for a medical condition), TeleDoc (India) providing handheld mobile phone devices to village health workers in India. There exists a tremendous opportunity in the use of mobile applications for service delivery and it can help increase

productivity, efficiency, and ability to reach patients.

M-Agriculture is a field which is majorly driven by Government initiatives with support from private service providers. Behtar Zindagi, a pan-India IVR and SMS service in 18 regional languages, available to farmers 24/7 throughout the year is a govt. initiative in the same direction. In addition, information related to agriculture, horticulture, dairy farming, and fisheries is available via M-agriculture based applications. Timely delivery and value preposition are some issues related to this service.

M-Education can help increase literacy levels in India by assisting the govt. initiatives to put together large scale mobile education programs. Some of the applications include: M-guruji (for areas of engineering, management, civil services, and medicine), English Seekho (uses Interactive Voice Response application for English language coaching). There is tremendous scope for services such as language training (text, audio, and interactive), mobile reading, broader adult literacy, and vocational training on specific subjects. Private players can also look at potential areas of key consumer needs.

M-governance provides the solution needed to reach out to the large population of India. A number of state wide M-Governance initiatives have been undertaken to make the governance system more effective. In India, Bihar and Kerala (Public Service, Road Transport, Film Development, etc.) are pioneers in the field of M-Governance. The scope encompasses natural disaster alerts to polls through mobile phones.

The penetration of banking services in India is 40% presently. M-Banking overrides the need to set up more branches. In India, banking sector has become more customers friendly by providing banking services through mobile phone. Banks are now offering banking services on mobile handsets through WAP-based internet websites and application based mobile banking services. Nearly 70% of the public and private banks in the country offer mobile banking services. Though mobile banking is convenient, yet as customer prefers traditional banking over mobile banking, it has not been able to reach its true potential. The reasons can be lack of adoption of mobile as a channel for banking, limitations of services on mobile banking, and non-replication of mobile banking services in varied languages in India, etc.

Key Drivers:

Š ConnectivityŠ Awareness amongst consumersŠ Effective support infrastructureŠ Increasing popularity of smartphones

VAS AND MOBILITY


59



No of users Globally:

141.72 mn

Expected to reach

162.41 mn

Š Penetration of mobile network in rural areaŠ Strengthening of the security frameworkŠ Encouraging regulatory environment

Advancement of M-Cloud computing can bring a paradigm shift from conventional wireless communications services to mobile cloud computing and services over wireless internet in the real world. Mobile Cloud Accelerator makes mobile operators an integral part of the value chain with additional revenue opportunities for them. M-Cloud infrastructure leverages emergent infrastructures and resources to deliver innovative M-Cloud infrastructures, platforms, mobile enabled applications services to low-end mobile devices to access diverse and scalable cloud computing resources anytime and anywhere. The developers can have wide market by bypassing restrictions created by the traditional mobile operating systems. The use of cloud services in existing architecture require tight coupling between mobile applications and cloud services for desirable and reliable mobile cloud computing. The recent 100% FDI allowance may increase investment in cloud-based technologies. Mobility management, context-processing, energy constraint, service level agreements, and network bandwidth for faster data transfer between the cloud and devices are the constraints yet to be overcome. But there are endless possibilities that can be brought about with the mobile cloud in the near future.

Key Drivers:

Š Advancements in Smartphone TechnologyŠ IT ConsumerizationŠ Agility, Flexibility and ElasticityŠ Facilitating interoperability

M-CLOUD

DATA CARD

The data card business has shown significant growth in India with the increase of broadband usage during the last fiscal year. Operators are launching 3G data cards with high download speed. This market has also affected the smartphone market; as telecommunication equipment providers are coming up with data card specific smartphones.

Mobile broadband connectivity, network optimization and lack of user awareness are some of the challenges faced in this sector. However, operators are coming up with 4G services in India which is expected to drive development in data card technology and provide better growth opportunities. Indian rural segment holds major potential in the data card segment as rural internet penetration is low presently.

Indian market for 3G data cards is characterized by SIM lock services which restrict users; thus the future growth can be anticipated by the open network data cards that would provide the flexibility to the user to switch operator network.

Key Drivers:

The current market is characterized by falling ARPU and increasing smartphone penetration. In such situations, MVAS services such as Mobile Internet, m- Entertainment, m-Commerce, and m-Advertisement will help Telcos raise their revenues and retain customers. Datacards are expected to provide better profitability with the advent of 3G and 4G. All these, when put together show a capability of delivering quality services both in rural as well as urban India.

CONCLUSION

VAS AND MOBILITY


60



Š Affordable pricing of data cardsŠ Low cost prepaid plansŠ Data driven 3G services such as video and multi-media based entertainment servicesŠ Potential Indian rural segment

Revenue in India :

` 15 bn

Expected to reach

` 16.24 bn


Saishanker Teli | Aditya Basu

Student Team

61SPECIAL FEATURE - NFC : NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION

Fig: NFC ECOSYSTEM

Fig: GROWTH OVER THE YEARS

BanksCredit CardCompanies

PaymentProviders

NFC-EquippedPhone

Mobile Ecosystem

Financlal Ecosystem

End ConsumerMerchants

Mobile Carriers

Mobile HandsetManufactures

NFC Technology

Merchants Mass Transit Systems

PDS Providers

Retall Ecosystem

1983 - RFID2004 Nokia, Philips & Sony forms NFC Forms

2004 NFC Forms released Peer to Peer Standards

2011 - NFC becomes part of Symbainos &Google Wallet

2013 - Road Ahead?

INTRODUCTION

WHAT IS NFC?

WORKING

Internet revolution introduced the terms 'data' and 'information'. The increasing pace of innovations in technology has replaced floppy discs and compact discs with pen drives which are also expected to become obsolete in near future. Human life has been made easier by technological innovations with the help of smartphones and tablets. Evolution of multifunctional networked devices and connecting technologies such as Infrared, RFID, Bluetooth and Wi-Fi have brought development in communication devices.

In line with this evolving trend cell phones with the additional offerings of Internet and multimedia services have successfully entered people's lifestyles.Mobile phones can now expand its domain of applicability by adding contactless functionality.Given the functions of a contactless card along with the wide variety of functions of a mobile phone, the card evolves into a device whose resulting value is greater than just the value of the two devices added together. This newly defined device is an NFC Mobile Phone.The Near Field Communication (NFC) mobile service, which leverages the current contactless infrastructures, has just started to emerge.

Near Field Communication is one of the relatively new wireless connectivity technologies that will make life simpler for its users. NFC changes the way users exchange digital content, make transactions and connect to other electronic equipment. Versatile and intuitive ways of communication are some of the inherent offerings of NFC.NFC also called ECMA-340 and ISO/IEC 18092 standard, works in harmony with the existing contactless card technologies. Some of the primary applications are:

“ Connect electronic devices- headset and Wireless components with a mobile phone. “ Access Digital content - like a “Smart Poster” or “Smart Billboard” embedded with an NFC tag.“ Contactless transactions and payments.

NFC operates on the principle of Radio Frequency that uses magnetic field induction to facilitate communication between electronic devices in close proximity. NFC technology enables communication between an NFC reader/writer and tag over a range of four centimetres. NFC operates at unregulated RF band of 13.56 MHz and transfers data from the set of 106, 212 and 424 Kbit/s using half-duplex mode of communication.

In the Active mode of communication both devices generate their own RF field to carry the data. In thePassive mode of communication only one device generates the RF field while the other device uses load modulation to transfer the data. The protocol specifies that the Initiator is the deviceresponsible to generate the RF field. Once the configuration data has been exchanged using NFC, the devices can set up and continue communication at a longer range using faster protocols like Bluetooth or Wireless Ethernet (Wi-Fi). The NFC touch simplifies the pairing of Bluetooth devices, connecting to a Wi-Fi network, by replacing the tedious process of entering keys and PINs to simply touching the two devices to be paired or by touching the tag device.

The NFC Mobile Value chain extends the current contactless ecosystem model with additional functionality. Industry experts have a varied opinion instating the major contributor to the value chain. However a majority of them opine that Financial Institutions would play a major role in driving the need for NFC applications.In the current market, the following entities are facilitating the use of NFC:

“ Handset Manufacturers ( Samsung , Nokia)“ Mobile Carriers ( AT&T, Verizon )“ Application Providers ( Google Wallet)“ Merchants(Subway, Walmart)“ Financial Institutions ( Master Card , Visa)“ Payment Providers (PayPal, Verifone)

Handset manufacturers design and produce NFC Mobile Phones according to industry standards. They provide capabilities for service providers to develop applications that provide an intuitive experience to users. Handset manufacturers compete by providing attractive combinations of design, price and feature sets, whereNFC capabilities make applications and service offerings easier to use, and also by enabling new usage scenarios for phones.

Mobile carriers mainly providefunctionalities to maintain the network infrastructure, to provide data connectivity service to users and to offer user authentication for ensuring that only contracted users can connect to the mobile network, and to offer user care for the data connectivity service.

Application Providers provide means to facilitate NFC technology to the users. They are responsible to find out innovative uses of the technology to increase adoption

VALUE CHAIN



62

Chipset manufacturers provide the integrated circuit components (ICs) needed for all NFC devices;chipset development is carried out in close cooperation with handset manufacturers and service providers in order to fulfil application requirements

Merchants ultimately would introduce NFC in their PoS and provide service to the end consumers. They play a crucial role in the ecosystem as they are closest to the consumers.

Financial Institutions such as Master Card and Visa would provide the backend, which would be similar to the existing Contact card payment system. It is crucial that a major role must be paid by these bodies for the technology to get standardized

Payment Providers are mainly 3rd party merchants who help in the payment gateway process especially online. They would play an important role in covering the offline systems to the already integrated online systems.

A remarkably diverse and ever-expanding domain of NFC use cases is being explored and is expected to be brought to market all around the world. Today, both research organizations and commercial enterprises are putting NFC to work in diverse areas. Most sectors like Banking and Airlines have implemented NFC technology in their working environment as follows:-

“ Sixteen Korean banks have introduced Bank Wallet, a prepaid NFC payments service, which uses a platform developed by interbank clearing house KFTC.“ DBS has offered a virtual credit card based on NFC technology to its customers on three mobile network operators in Singapore.“ Japan Airlines is planning to expand its use of NFC for boarding and other services at domestic airports.“ Canadian bank RBC and mobile network operator Bell have announced plans to jointly introduce an NFC

payment service. RBS customers will be provided with an NFC enabled phone(Supplier: Bell) with the ability to store their debit or credit card details on their phone's SIM; thus allowing payments to be made using mobile phone.“ NFC-based initiatives have been focused on

markets which have advanced phones, networks and banking systems to support them. Mobile payment service being the main use of NFC technology right now, mobile operators like Orange, Bell, etc. are working with card providers like Visa, MasterCard to roll out services in

Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Turkey and UK.

GLOBAL SCENARIO

“ Orange has rolled out NFC technology for banks, retailers and transport and service providers in many European countries. Similarly, Airtel Africa and Oberthur technologies rolled out these services in Kenya and few other African countries. Europe and a number of Asia Pacific Countries are using NFC-compatible contactless technologies in the commuter transit systems, for instance, the “Park and Ride” payment system.

NFC creates a new enriched world of universal interface that merges the existing devices and technology through simple and intuitive touch interaction.

a) NFC enables Advertising

“Smart Poster” concept is a smarter medium of advertising, where the poster contains a readable NFC tag. An NFC enabled phone when held close to the tag, reads all the information stored in the tag and the same is displayed on the phone. Nokia had, recently, introduced NFC-enabled advertising where they partnered with the movie 'Ra One' for their 'Just Tap with NFC' campaign. As a part of this campaign users could gain access to movie content by tapping their NFC enabled phones.

b) NFC enables Mobile Wallet

NFC has replaced the need to carry hard cash; this can be seen in NFC enabled 'Park and Ride' payment system. The users have to simply use their NFC enabled phones to buy the ticket, receive it electronically and travel seamlessly.NFC payment application enables purchase of goods and services simply by holding the mobile phone close to the payment reader. A unique identity is created for each user with the help of the NFC enabled phone. These developments depict the significance of Internet of Things.

Different sectors like Banking, Retail and Travel need to come together to facilitate the use of this technology and provide an enriching experience to users. Many experts have pointed out that the key driving point would be increased use of NFC applications such as the Digital Wallet, coupons and affordability of the NFC enabled devices. But the operators expectfor a revenue sharing model similar to the current MVAS - CSP model (inclined towards CSPs) with other entities contributing equally for a sustained ecosystem.

ENABLERS & INTERNET OF THINGS

INDUSTRY CONVERGENCE


SPECIAL FEATURE - NFC : NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION 63

BENEFITS OF NFC

CASE SCENARIO IN INDIA

BARRIERS / CHALLENGES

Mobile operators are looking for new revenue sources to boost their average revenue per user (ARPU) and are not accustomed to sharing their customers with other entities. With NFC phones, mobile operators, banks, and other players can offer more services related to payment, like mobile banking ordownloadable coupons.

Merchants have seen the benefits of faster transaction time, increased spending and increased customer loyalty. Plus, transactions using contactless cards and devices are processed through a single, contactless-enabled point-of-sale (PoS) system and through the existing financial networks, encouraging merchantadoption.

India is currently the second largest mobile handset market in the world (after China). The Indian mobile consumers' increasing preference for high-end phones and the young consumers' desire to use mobile Web technologies are a major factor contributing to the success of Smartphones. Growth in Smartphones is likely to surpass the overall growth in the mobile handset industry. The segment is anticipated to continue its growth with a CAGR of 60% during 2011-2015, while the mobile handsets is expected to register a CAGR of 13% during the same period.

Despite these encouraging figures in the smart phone industry, the fact that NFC technology is still in a nascent stage in India cannot be denied.Knowledgefaber, a Bangalore-based Consulting and Research Company, has confirmed that the trials of NFC transactions are gaining increasing popularity in rail ticketing, retail outlets, etc. The report cited that many banking organizations, telecom operators, vendors and independent companies have already put their NFC trials on fast track mode.

NFC implementation in India:

“ Bangalore's metro rail is already using contactless smart cards based on NFC for payment since the beginning.“ The latest to talk about implementing NFC based ticketing is the Hyderabad Metro Rail. The metro will have NFC &

mobile based ticketing as well.“ Multiplex chain PVR recently introduced tap and pay at their cinemas for BlackBerry 10 users.

“ Lack of trust in security and privacy from the consumer's side “ Interoperability

“ Moreover, Point-of-Sale(PoS) adoption and deploying new infrastructure is not recommendable for a minor sector of NFC users“ Nine out of the top ten OEMs now have NFC-enabled handsets commercially available. But with no standardisation in NFC chips, compatibility will be an issue among devices from different manufacturers“ NFC would require a full proof encryption system at both devices, due to the fact that NFC works on RF waves and is susceptible to eavesdropping

NFC payment bears a huge potential as it has the ability to address the specific requirements of the retail payment market. Though the initial investment in NFC infrastructure may be high, it is expected to prove economical in the long run. The evolution of a mobile phone into an NFC enabled Mobile Phone may provide mobile network operators with opportunities to develop new business areas.

It is essential that each entity in the ecosystem contributes to facilitate growth in NFC. Mutual co-operation amongst them would act as a foundation in acceptance of NFC technology.Considering the development of NFC compatible handsets by all leading mobile device manufacturers, it can be said that NFC is expected to have new avenues to develop and expand its utility.

ROAD AHEAD



64

FTTH: Fiber to the Home

FTTx: Fiber to the x

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

GPON: Gigabit Passive Optical

Network

HSPA: High Speed packet Access

IBS: In Building Solution

ICRA: Intra Circle Roaming

Agreement

IIP: Index of Industrial Production

ILD: International Long Distance

IM: Information management

IPSec: Internet Protocol Security

IPTV: Internet Protocol Television

ISP: Internet Service Provider

LTE: Long Term Evolution

LUT: Low Utility Traffic

M2M: Machine to Machine

MENA: Middle East and North

Africa

MNP: Mobile Number Portability

MoM: Month on Month

MoU: Minutes of Usage

M-VAS: Mobile Value Added Services

NGN: Next Generation Network

NLD: National Long Distance

NMS: Network Management System

NPE: National Policy on Electronics

NTP: National Telecom Policy

OEMs: Original Equipment

Manufacturers

OPEX: Operational Expenditure

www.adb.orgwww.africaneconomicoutlook.orgwww.billingworld.comwww.bloomberg.comwww.booz.comwww.channelworld.inwww.cisco.comwww.communicationstoday.co.inwww.comsnets.orgwww.dot.gov.in

ABBREVIATIONSOS: Operating Systems

OSS/BSS: Operations Support

System/ Business Support System

OTT: Over the Top

PMPs: Portable Media Players

QE: Quarter Ending

QoS: Quality of service

R&D: Research and Development

ROI: Return on investment

RPST: Rural Public Service Terminal

SaaS: Software as a service

SDP: Service Delivery Platform

SLR: Statutory Liquidity Ratio

SOHO: Small Office/Home Office

STB: Set Top Box

STM: Synchronous Transport

Module

TDM: Time Division Multiplexing

TOMS: Telecom Operations

Management Services

USOF: Universal Service Obligation

Fund

USP: Unique Selling Point

VAS: Value Added Services

VOD: Video on Demand

VoIP: Voice over Internet Protocol

VPT: Village Public Telephone

VSAT: Very Small Aperture Terminal

WDM: Wavelength Division

Multiplexing

WiMAX: Worldwide Interoperability

for Microwave Access

REFERENCESTimes News Network

Voice & Data

News services

Business Standard

Press Trust of India

Reuters

WEBSITESwww.economictimes.comwww.economist.comwww.eia.doe.govwww.engadget.comwww.entrepreneur.comwww.financialexpress.comwww.frost.comwww.gizmodo.comwww.idc.comwww.imf.org

www.informationweek.comwww.itu.intwww.knowledgefaber.comwww.moneymint.inwww.outlookindia.comwww.pcworld.comwww.planningcommission.nic.inwww.telecomtiger.comwww.tmcnet.comwww.trai.gov.inwww.worldbank.org

ABBREVIATIONS 65

ADSL: Asynchronous Digital

Subscriber Line

AGR: Adjusted Gross Revenue

APAC: Asia Pacific

API: Application Programming

Interface

App: Application

ARPM: Average revenue per minute

ARPU: Average revenue per user

BWA: Broadband Wireless Access

BYOD: Bring Your Own Device

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth

Rate

CAPEX: Capital Expenditure

CDN: Content Delivery Network

CRM: Customer Relationship

Management

CSP: Communication Service

Provider

DoT: Department of

Telecommunication

DSL: Digital Subscriber Line

DSLAM: Digital Subscriber Line

Access Multiplexer

DTH: Direct To Home

DWDM: Dense Wavelength Division

Multiplexing

ECB: European Central Bank

EU: European Union

FII: Foreign Institutional Investors

FOMC: Federal Open Market

Committee

TEAM PRÉVISION

In picture – Prévision Senior Team

Starting from front row, left to right: Saishanker Teli, Aditya Basu, Vineet Chachra, Prof. Giri Hallur, Nikhil Agarwal,

Yashesh Amichandwala, Sanket Deshpande, Sumit Mathur,Tanu Agarwal, Kriti Gupta, Swati Jain, Disha Puri,

Arpita Santra, Pragati Jain, Anagha Joshi, Ankita Singh, Roshni Madhusudan, Anuradha Acharya,

Deepanker Ray,Arnab Majumdar,Varun Pandhi,Tejas Kawli, Kailash Nath, Varun Pandhi, Sumit Deshmukh,

Sanchit Rajadhyaksha, Shrinivas Jadhav, Prasad Rane, Avinash Patra, Shivam Satnani

PRÉVISION – JUNIOR AD-HOC TEAM

‡‡‡

Sumit Gandhi Jyoti Saini Rajneesh Singh

Indian Telecom

‡‡‡

Chirag Patni Shubham Purohit Vijay Raj Acharya

Economy

‡‡‡‡

Saurabh Saxena Refad Shivani Anuj Jain Swapnil Chopade

Global Telecom

‡‡‡

Bhaumik Shah Gesu Shrivastav Sonal Kulkarni

VAS & Mobility

‡‡

Rahul Agarwal Nutan Gawade

Telecom Technologies

‡‡

Nikhhil Narula Nitika Jindal

Consumer Electronics

‡‡

Apurva Joshi Sagar Nihalani

Communication Infrastructure

‡‡‡

Tanu Dewan Mayank Rai Surbhi Asati

Telecom Software

‡‡

Varun Tyagi Nikilesh KolipakulaBroadband

‡‡

Kiran Raikar Dhanesh Porwal

Special Feature

66 TEAM PRÉVISION

symbiosis institute of telecom management 2014.pdfankita singh sanket deshpande saishanker teli...

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