synchronizing clocks at armageddon

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Megiddo 2010 Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon Moira Wilson School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester

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Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon. Moira Wilson School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester. RHX Some scientific observations and issues. Team RHX: Moira Wilson Chris Hall Margaret Carter Ceren Ince Bill Hoff One microbalance. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Moira Wilson School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering,

The University of Manchester

Page 2: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

RHXSome scientific observations and issues

Team RHX: Moira Wilson Chris Hall

Margaret Carter Ceren Ince

Bill Hoff

One microbalance

Page 3: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Basis of method is “moisture expansion”

Page 4: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Moisture induced expansion is of concern to builders and civil engineers because it gives rise to strain.

Rule of thumb: bricks should not be used for about 2 weeks after firing.(i.e. when they have finished expanding (Ha!))

Page 5: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

• The lime mortar accommodated strain.

• Modern cement mortars do not, so expansion joints are specified in design codes.

Moisture expansion in structural masonry

•Old brick masonry (before ~ 1950) doesnot have expansion joints.

Page 6: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

How big are these effects?

EXPANSION: 1 km of wall will expand by ~ 1 m over 200 y

Page 7: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

FILM OF BRICK GAINING MASS

Page 8: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

• Moisture expansion was known to be REVERSIBLE (but no agreement on the temperature required to do this)

Of most interest

• The moisture expansion was accompanied by an increase in mass (but only 1 set of data in the literature from 1962). (No point in engineering)

Page 9: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

The Manchester and Edinburgh worktime¼ law

(2003)

Page 10: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Discovery of the (time)1/4 law:

(2003)

Page 11: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010 (2003)

Page 12: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010 (2003)

Fresh brick

1900 year old brick

20 year old brick

120 year old brick

Discovery of the (time)1/4 law:

Page 13: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Effect of environmental conditions (i)

Page 14: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Effect of environmental conditions (ii)

SATURATED

DRY

Page 15: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Discovery of the 2 stage process:

0

0.1

0.2

0 2 4 6Time1/4 (mins1/4)

103 S

trai

n, ε

1 day

Expansion versus t1/4

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0 5 10Time1/4 (min1/4)

103 ∆

m/m

o

16 days

Mass gain versus t1/4

(2005)

Page 16: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

TIME 1/4

The t1/4 law means that equal amounts of expansion or mass gain occur in the time intervals 1, 16, 81, 256 etcseconds / minutes/ years after firing.

These correspond to 14, 24, 34, 44 etc seconds / minutes/ years.

If we plot mass gain or expansion against t1/4 we geta straight line.

Page 17: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

The older the brick, the bigger it is.

Could the new rate law be exploited to produce a dating method for fired clay ceramics??

It gets bigger and heavier at a precisely defined rate

EUREKA!

Page 18: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Principle of the dating method

•1 Measure initial length (L) or mass (m)

2. Measure early time mass or expansion following reheating

3. Extrapolate stage II data

4. Age of sample

t1/4

Exp

ansi

on

L,mo

L,m

ta1/4

Page 19: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Expansion in fresh/reheated brick

Linear fits to Stage 2 data:(F) ε = 0.93×10-5t1/4 + 2.77×10-5

(R1) ε = 0.45×10-5t1/4 + 3.67×10-5

(R2) ε = 0.33×10-5t1/4 + 2.45×10-5

Systematic reductionin Stage II gradienton repeated reheating

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Time1/4 (mins1/4)

10

3 Str

ain

, E

Fresh

Reheat 1

Reheat 2

1 day

Page 20: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

FORM of data sameas expansion data- scattery.

Same 2 stage process observed

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0 5 10Time1/4 (min1/4)

103 ∆m

/mo

16 days

Why?

Started looking at mass gain again:

Page 21: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Is the mass gain reversible?

y = 0.0039x + 0.0285

y = 0.0435x - 0.1174

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Time^0.25 /mins

Mass

gain

%

Freshly fired brick

y = 0.0039x + 0.0205

270 days y = 0.004x + 0.0248

y = 0.025x - 0.0395

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Time^0.25 /mins

Mas

s %

gai

ned

Same brick reheated

y = 0.004x + 0.0248

7 days

Page 22: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Predicted ageof 49 weeks.

5 10 15 20 25

1279.6

1280.0

1280.2

1280.4

1280.6

1279.8

1281.0

1281.4

1280.8

1281.2

1281.6

Initial mass of 39 week old brick

Extrapolated Stage II data

Stage II data

Time1/4 (min1/4)

Ma

ss (

g)

14 days

The first “dating” experiment

Page 23: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

m = 0.0382t 1/4 + 128.9531

m = 0.0289t 1/4 + 129.02

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

0 50 100 150 200

Time1/4 (mins1/4)

Mas

s (g

)

A × 1.33 = B(mean over all trials)

1,957 Years

A B

The first dating trial

Calculated date too young

Page 24: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

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Knownage

Ratio of predicted to known age

(in t1/4)

Predicted age with average

multiplier (1.33)

(a) 150 ±10 1.36 144

(a) 150 ±10 1.31 166

(a) 150 ±10 1.26 192

(b) 367±160 1.37 298

(b) 367±160 1.37 303

(c) 1932±75 1.34 1968

(d) 1957±50 1.30 2123

Mean= 1.33

The first dating trial

All dates came outwrong-

BY THE SAME AMOUNT

Page 25: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

m = 0.0382t 1/4 + 128.9531

m = 0.0289t 1/4 + 129.02

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

0 50 100 150 200

Time1/4 (mins1/4)

Mas

s (g

)

1,957 Years

A B

The DATA

Page 26: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

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The microbalance:

The next step…

Allows us to weigh 5 gpieces of brick under tightly controlled conditions to 0.1µg. (1/10 of a millionth of a gram).

Page 27: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 5 10Time1/4 (mins1/4)

103

∆m/m

0

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Time1/4 (mins1/4)

10

3 Δm

/m0

10 days

The data

• Vastly improved quality of data.

• Speed of data acquisition.

• Absolute confirmation of the t1/4 law

NO SCATTER!!!!!!

(WHY?)

Page 28: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Putting the microbalancethrough its paces

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This shows that we have a chemical reaction going on ……… and that it’s TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT!

Arrhenius plot

Page 30: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

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EUREKA! (again)• Scattery data due to temperature fluctuationsover course of measurement period

• First dating experiment worked because the brick had been sitting in the lab for 39 weeks – and the mass gain measurements following heating were carried out at the same temp (~ 25 OC)

AND

All samples in 1st dating trial were measured at ~25 OC!

→ Stage II gradients were too steep (temp too high),

→ Extrapolated Stage II data intersected line of initial mass too soon

→ Age of sample too young (2008)

Page 31: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Second dating trial

3941

3942

3943

3944

3945

3946

3947

3948

3949

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4

Time1/4 (hours1/4)

Mass

(m

g)

m /t 1/4 = -0.00006x + 0.79350

0

5

10

15

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Data points

Gra

die

nt (m

/t1/

4 )

Gradient = 0.2 min-1/4

Page 32: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Started to get some REALLY good results

AND THEN …

yippee!

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We dated a Roman brick to March 2008!

(i.e. 8 months old)

AND THEN …

EEK!

Page 34: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

We dated a MEDIEVAL brick to 1942!

(i.e. 66 years old)

AND THEN …

– the “Canterbury Tale”…

NOW WHAT?

Page 35: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Eventually…the “line of knowns”

50 person-years of effort for 6 data points!

REPLICATE VALUES (yrs)

330

321

333

308

307

Page 36: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

3941

3942

3943

3944

3945

3946

3947

3948

3949

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4

Time1/4 (hours1/4)

Mass

(m

g)

m /t 1/4 = -0.00006x + 0.79350

0

5

10

15

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Data points

Gra

die

nt (m

/t1/

4 )

Improved methodology

Page 37: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.50.000

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

Mas

s ch

ang

e (m-m0)/m

0

Time1/4 ((hours)1/4)

Solid line: freshly-fired at 800ºC; □: following reheating at 500ºC.

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

0.0000

0.0005

0.0010

0.0015

0.0020(b)

Mas

s ch

ange

(m-m(2) 0)/m(2) 0

Time1/4 ((hours)1/4)

reheated

freshly-fired

(a)

Some other nice microbalance results

Page 38: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

NEW RESULTS:

1. Samian ware

Page 39: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

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Samian ware Mass gain measured at 11 deg C and 30% RHfollowing reheating at 500 deg C

AGE = 1950 years

Page 40: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Samian warePlot of gradient segments:

Page 41: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

25ºC

20ºC

15ºC

Samian wareMass gain at different temperatures:

Page 42: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Samian ware

25ºC

20ºC

15ºC

11ºC

ln r = 1.6383

r = 0.1943 mg/hr1/4

Sample dates to 1943 years

Page 43: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

11ºC and 50 % RH

11ºC and 30 % RH

BOTH DATE TO

~ 1950 years old

Samian ware

Page 44: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

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2. Saxon loom-weightMass gain measured at 11 deg C and 30% RH.Gradient stabilised after 7 days

Page 45: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

RHX age: 1159 years (= 850AD)

Assigned age:5th century8th century OR 9th century

RESULTS

Conclude 9th century

Page 46: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

1 2

2. Megiddo: RHX4 S7 Mass gain measured at 19 deg C and 30% RH.

Page 47: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

1 2

1 21

Page 48: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

3. Megiddo Plot of gradients vs number of data points:

The “Piasetzky Effect”

Page 49: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

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Now have 2 sets of anomalous results:

Page 50: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

BET specific surface area results: SAMPLE SURFACE AREA

mm^2/g

Page 51: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Thank you!

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Acknowledgements

• The Leverhulme Trust

• EPSRC

• The Museum of London Specialist Services

• Centre for Materials Science and Engineering, The University of Edinburgh

• A very patient husband (Master?)!

Page 53: Synchronizing clocks at Armageddon

Megiddo 2010

Tel Aviv (hot and dry?): 32.2 OC (90 OF) and 46% RH (i.e. 46% of a large amount of water vapour)

Manchester (cold and wet) 12.8 OC (55 OF) and 67% RH (i.e. 67% of a much smaller amount of water vapour).

From these data, the water vapour pressure in Tel Aviv is 2.24 kPa compared with 1.00 kPa in Manchester

The air in Tel Aviv therefore contains much more water vapour than in Manchester