SYNERGY FX ALERT BY TODD DEITERICH | 03.06.15

US NON-FARM PAYROLL PREVIEW.

This month's US Jobs report could be unique in the sense that it's not THE most important economic story of the day. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly report certainly won't be ignored by financial markets. However, the decision by the Syriza Government to skip Friday's loan payment to the IMF and the recent wide swings in German Bunds yields will also have an impact across the financial spectrum. The preliminary forecast for headline job growth is 222,000 with an unemployment rate of 5.4% and an increase of hourly earnings by .2%. Considering the recent comments from voting FOMC members that consumer spending is not running at the pace needed to hit their inflation targets, the hourly earnings number will be just as important as the headline print. Over the last few weeks the components which make up the NFP report have been mixed. The ADP private sector jobs report printed 35,000 better than last month but the employment threads in the ISM and so FED district reports have softened. As such, Synergy FX expects a headline number over 180,000 to be USD supportive as long as the hourly earnings number is flat to higher. Of note, the FED conducted two Reverse Repurchase (RRP) agreements this week for a total of $196 billion at an overnight yield spread of 19 to 21 basis points. Considering the market frenzy surrounding when the FED will officially lift FED FUNDS rates to 25 basis points, it appears that via the RRP the first normalization hurdle has been largely cleared. Synergy FX suggested selling the EUR/USD on Tuesday on a break of 1.1080, which was not hit. Since then, the EUR/USD traded briefly up to 1.1380 (see chart). The catalyst for this move was a combination of a sharp spike in German Bund yields to almost 1% and persistent rumours that the Greek debt crisis was nearing an end.......both of those drivers have been reversed. The German Bund yield settled the day at .82% and Greek government decided to miss Friday's €300 million IMF payment to bundle the total €1.7 payment for June in one transaction at the end of the month. We consider this a game changer in the Greek negotiations since it's the first time the Syriza government has overtly defied a troika mandate. With this in mind, we suggest selling EUR/USD on a limit of 1.1285 or on a stop at 1.1180 with an initial target of 1.0880 and a 1.1425 stop. The USD/JPY has been consolidating above initial support at 123.70 and below the recent high of 125.10. We still prefer buying the pair down to 123.70 and adding to long positions on a break of the 4 hour parabolic indicator at 124.68. Only a close below 122.30 reverses the current uptrend. The GBP/USD arrested its 7 session slid with a bounce back to the 30 day moving average at 1.5410. Synergy FX suggests selling the GBP/USD up to 1.5340 for an initial target of 1.5170 and a 1.5475 stop. We were stopped out of our short EUR/GBP traded with a stinging 300 pip loss. We'll stay on the sideline

on this cross until the GBP/USD reaches lower levels. The AUD/USD was sold down sharply yesterday on much weaker retail sales data. The sell stop at .7750 was triggered and we suggest adding to short positions before next week's employment report. Short-term traders can look to sell AUD/USD up to .7740 for an initial target of .7570 with a .7815 stop. SYNERGY FX