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SYRIA CONFLICTGROUP 2Chaudhry, Gichuhi, Khaminwa and Kiptoo

Prelude

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History of Syria from the Ottoman Empire.

Introduction.Syria most likely derives from the name of the Neo-Assyrian Empire established in the 10th century BC. Modern Syria became independent in 1946 following a period of French occupation (191720) and Mandate (1920-1946). In 1958, the Republic of Syria became briefly part of the United Arab Republic but in 1961 withdrew from the federation. From 1963, the Syrian Arab Republic has been ruled by the Ba'ath with the Assad family exclusively from 1970.Currently Syria is fractured between rival forces on the course of the Syrian Civil War.

THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE.Ottoman Syria is defined as the region east of the Mediterranean Sea, west of the Euphrates River, and north of the Arabian desert. In 1516 Ottoman Sultan Selim I conquered most of Syria. Therefore, Syria was part of the Ottoman Empire from 1516 to 1918.Ottoman rule was not burdensome to the Syrians because the Turks, as Muslims, respected Arabic as the language of the Koran, and accepted the mantle of defenders of the faith. Ottoman administration was such that it fostered a peaceful coexistence amongst the different sections of Syrian society for over four hundred years.

. Each religious minority Shia Muslim, Greek Orthodox, Maronite, Armenian, and Jews. The religious heads of each community administered all personal status law and performed certain civil functions as well. Syria is known for its diverse cultures and communities and the equality doctrine was complied with during the Ottoman regime.

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Year 1920Syria became a League of Nations mandate under French control in 1920.In 1920, a short-lived independent Kingdom of Syria was established under Emir Faisal I of the Hashemite dynasty, who later became the king of Iraq. In March 1920, the Syrian National Congress proclaimed Faisal as king of SyriaHis rule in Syria ended after only a few months following a clash between his Syrian Arab forces and French forces at the Battle of Maysalun. French troops took control of Syria and forced Faisal to flee. Later that year the San Remo conference split up Faisal's kingdom by placing Syria-Lebanon under a French mandate, and Palestine under British control. Syria was divided into three autonomous regions by the French, with separate areas for the Alawis on the coast and the Druze in the south.

Year 1940Syria proclaimed its independence in 1941, but it was not until 1 January 1944 that it was recognised as an independent republic. Syria came under the control of Vichy France until the British and Free French occupied the country in the Syria-Lebanon campaign in July 1941. Continuing pressure from Syrian nationalist groups forced the French to evacuate the last of their troops in April 1946, leaving the country in the hands of a republican government that had been formed during the mandate.As time elapsed in Syria, the power in turn had increased in the military as well as the securities. However the parliamentary institutions remained weak and administration was poor. A lot of conflicts occurred during this time, outbreak of wars, civilians fighting for land and the power to own certain zones etc. On 13 November 1970, Minister of Defense Hafez al-Assad seized power in a bloodless military overthrow ("The Corrective Movement)

Continued..A group of Muslim Sunnis wanted to assassinate Assad as they did not want to be ruled by the Shias and did not accept the Ba'ath programme. Assad has rebels and due to this the outcome was cross fire between the government and the civilians. I do believe that at this point of time, is when the rebels,gained power that lead to numerous wars thereafter.In 1994, Assad's son Bassel al-Assad, who was likely to succeed his father, was killed in a car accident. Assad's brother, Rifaat al-Assad, was "relieved of his post" as vice-president in 1998. Thus, when Assad died in 2000, his second son, Bashar al-Assad was chosen as his successor. In the same year, he was chosen as president and thereafter civilians thinking if a new hope which they have not gotten till today. Under Bashar-Al-Assad Syria was exposed in the sense that, the U.S. Raised allegations against it by claiming Syria was acquiring weapons of mass destruction and further later on that Syria had links with terrorist groups. Despite all that, a number of riots took place and the government ended up killing many civilians due to rebel groups already having formed during the ottoman rule.

Thereafter.. The civil war began

The United Nations Security Councils input?.. Year 2012The UN security General for Political affairs, B. Lynn Pascoe informed the UN Security Council that sources in Syria had reported the use of artillery fire against unarmed civilians; door-to-door arrest campaigns; the shooting of medical personnel who attempt to aid the wounded; raids against hospitals, clinics and mosques and the purposeful destruction of medical supplies and arrest of medical personnel. The Syrian government also allegedly denied access to international monitors, humanitarian groups and human rights organizations while simultaneously shutting off local social media communications.The deal failed to end the violence, which by then had become a de facto civil war.

UNSC.. Year 2012.The League of Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council, were hesitant to respond, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was unable to reach a consensus on decisive action to end the conflict. After nearly a year of fighting, former Secretary-General Kofi Annan was appointed as Joint Special Envoy for the UN and the League of Arab States on 23 February 2012. Annan quickly set forth a six point peace plan, which included commitments from all parties to work with the Special Envoy, a ceasefire, and the access to and timely provision of humanitarian assistance.

2012 Continued..The UNSC then authorized the deployment of a UN Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) of 300 unarmed observers to facilitate the peace plan in April 2012, but activities were suspended in June when the observers presence failed to quell the violence and the missions mandate came to an end on 19 August 2012. By late July, fatalities and casualties had mounted to 19,000 and tens of thousands of civilians remained displaced, seeking refuge in neighboring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey. The following month, Annan resigned from his position, citing the lack of political unity within the UN as a major obstacle to finding a solution to the crisis, and was replaced by Lakhdar Brahimi.

Finally, in October 2012 the Security Council issued press statements condemning the terrorist attacks in Aleppo and later calling on all relevant parties to implement a ceasefire in honor of Eid al- Adha, Since then, the Council has received significant pressure to refer the case in Syria to the ICC, including from the High Commissioner for Human Rights and the Special Advisers on the Prevention of Genocide and RtoP as well as from over 50 Member States who signed a letter saying as much in mid-January 2013 .12

Year 2013In August 2013, a series of videos, photographs and reports from the ground from Syria indicated that a new chemical weapons attack had killed a high number of civilians in rebel-held areas outside of Damascus, in the world's most lethal chemical weapons attack since the 1980s. The footage showed a large number of children among the victims of the attacks in Ghouta.The international community called for an immediate investigation of the use of chemical weapons after the attack on civilians. The team of United Nations inspectors probing the possible use of chemical weapons returned from Syria on 31 August after two weeks of investigation. It reported that there was clear and convincing evidence that Sarin gas had been used in Ghouta, though it stopped short of declaring which side had deployed them. While the Secretary General also refrained from assigning blame, he did state on 16 September this is a war crime.

Many voices inside and outside of Syria declared that the international community and the Syrian government had both failed in their responsibility to protect Syrians, a failure that, aparticularly in light of the attacks, reached what some called a tipping point and required an immediate and meaningful response.

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Continued..The Security Council showed rare unity on Syria by passing Resolution 2118 on 7 September 2013, which requires Syria to destroy its current stockpile of chemical weapons. It further prohibits Syria from using, developing, stockpiling, and transferring chemical weapons. Should Syria not fulfill the terms of the resolution, whose compliance will be overseen by the OPCW, the Security Council may consider penalties under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

Year 2014.In July and December 2014, the UNSC adopted two additional resolutions 2165 and 2191 which, among other things, authorized UN aid operations into Syria from neighboring countries without requiring the consent of the Syrian government.It not only re-iterated the need for ceasefire in heavily populated areas, but also affirmed that the Syrian government has the primary responsibility to protect the Syrian population. In addition, the resolution clarified that the UN agencies and other necessary humanitarian organizations could deliver aid from across the borders of neighboring countries and that to impede the delivery of aid by withholding consent for the opening of all relevant border crossings would be in violation of international humanitarian law.

the resolutions, and the hope they provided, have rung hollow for Syrian civilians. They have been ignored or undermined by the parties to the conflict, other UN member states, and even by members of the UNSC itself.In the 12 months since Resolution 2139 was passed, civilians in Syria have witnessed ever-increasing destruction suffering and death. Humanitarian needs have increased by nearly a third compared with 2013.

Statistics as at 2014People are not protected: 2014 was the deadliest year of the conflict in Syria, with at least 76,000 Syrians killedAid access has not improved: 4.8 million people in need reside in areas defined by the UN as "hard to reach", one million more than in 2013Needs have increased: 5.6 million children are in need of aid, a 31% increase since 2013 .The humanitarian response has decreased compared to needs: in 2013, 71% of the funds needed to support civilians inside Syria and refugees in neighbouring countries were provided. In 2014, this had declined to 57%Separate analysis by another group of charities says 83% of Syria's lights visible from space have gone out.

Continued..The latest development happened in February 2014, the Security Council broke its deadlock and unanimously passed Resolution 2139 to ensure access for humanitarian aid in Syria, urging all parties to lift sieges of populated areas, and condemning the use of barrel bombs and terrorist acts by Al Qaeda-linked organizations. However, the omission of sanctions has weakened the significance of the resolution. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is due to report back on the implementation of the resolution after 30 days.Despite the adoption of Presidential Statement 2013/15, Resolutions 2139 (2014) and 2165 (2014), the protection situation has worsened. Reportedly, over 1,000 civilian deaths have occurred in August (2014), the deadliest [month] since the start of the war. Civilians live in appalling conditions.

Consequences of the Crisis..Regional Spillover.

As a consequence of the Civil war in Syria, is the regional spillover of the political and humanitarian fallout from the Syrian conflict has begun to dramatically change the landscape of the Middle East

TURKEY..Turkey has been and will continue to be significantly affected by the ongoing civil war in Syria. The enormous number of Syrian refugees alone will impose many financial and governance challenges.The vast refugee flows from Syria constitute a poten- tial security threat if not managed properly. Syrian conflict may exac- erbate existing ethnic and religious tensions within southern Turkey.The Turkish state is strong, and none of these challenges represents an existential threat, Turkey is likely to experience limited spillover of vio- lent conflict from the Syrian civil war.

Turkey has also effectively taken sides in Syrias civil war by supporting rebel groups, raising the possibility of direct military involvement in the conflict in the future.22

Lebanon.Lebanons particularly high risk of conflict spillover stems from its crippled government, divi- sion among its internal security forces, and continued external/Iranian support to Hizbollah.Lebanon remains the largest recipi- ent of refugees from Syria yet has no official camps to host them. The influx of international aid to Syrian refugees arriving in Leb- anon further affects much of Lebanons indigenous populace, which had suffered long before Syrias current problems began.Lebanese citizens must now also compete for wages with refugees who work for less.

The influx of refugees has started to tip the sectarian balance within Lebanon, which has ignited his- torical hatreds between Sunni and Shia that have already culminated in violence in the form of clashes along the Syrian border and bombings in Beirut.23

Iraq..Syrian and Iraqi social structures are intertwinedthe two countries share similar elements of instability, long and porous borders, and tribal connections, and they are both considered focal points of religious rivalry in the region. Numerous fighters from both sides have already taken part in the fighting both against and with the Syrian regime. Sunni tribes perceive a potential victory as an advantage in their own political struggle against the Shia religious political parties in power in Baghdad. Competition between Iraqs Sunni and Shia com- munities is made worse by the spillover of violence from Syria.

JordanThe potential for violent conflict from the civil war in Syria spreading into Jordan is relatively high. All of the key factors leading to spillover point in this direction. Primary among these factors is that, as a transit point for external support to the rebels, Jordan opens itself up to retribu- tion from Hizbollah, Irans Quds Force, and other agents of the regime in Damascus. Attacks against Jordanian government and Sunni civilian targets inside Jordan could make the country a secondary battlefield for jihad and force the Jordanian security services to use extreme measures to maintain ordera move that could make matters worse.Finding ways for Jordan to contain or return the refugees to Syrian territory and to ease out of its role as a transit point for external support to the rebel factions in Syria would go a long way to curbing the potential for the spillover of violence from the war next door.

ConclusionAll of the factors leading to the spread of violent conflict from civil war and insurgency are present in the Levant. There is a high prob- ability that the fighting in Syria, if left unchecked, will spill over into Turkey and Jordan, where both countries are engaged in providing external aid to the rebels and where both are serving as hosts to serious numbers of refugees with ethnic ties to their own populations.Policy measures that are focused solely on the effects of the spill- over (such as helping Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan deal with the flow of refugees within their borders) are unlikely to be sufficientlike a doctor treating only the visible symptoms of an infectious disease: The patient and others standing nearby will continue to be at risk.

Ms. Vivian GichuhiOutbreak of the warThe Arab LeagueConventions Syria is a party to

Arab springThe Arab Spring can be defined as a series of anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions in various countries in the Middle East.It began in Tunisia in December 2010.

Causes of the Arab springIt was an expression of deep resentment at the ageing Arab dictatorships.Anger at the brutality of the security apparatus.Corruption.Unemployment.Hardline Islamists concern to enforce strict religious norms

Escalation of the syria conflictIt can be traced back to 26th January 2011to protests which developed into a consolidated uprising in March 2011.There have been many different theories which have been put across as to how the conflict began.Common to all of them is that it began in the city of Deraa where pro-democracy protests erupted after the arrest and torture of some teenagers who painted revolutionary slogans.

ContBashar -Al- Assad authorized security forces in the economically depressed, largely Sunni southern city of Deraa to use lethal violence against demonstrators peacefully protesting against gratuitous police brutality. Instead of going to Deraa to apologize, hand out compensation, and bring lawless officials to justice.public protests were fuelled by failure to punish the perpetrators.

contThe other theory is based on sectarianism.It is argued that without a doubt the Alawite identity of the ruling family deepened the sense of bitterness and frustration felt by people whose dignity was under assault by contemptuous rulers.Assad preferred to assault peaceful protesters with armed force it was, by definition, putting mostly Alawites against mostly Sunnis.

CONTSunnis accounted for most of the protesters.Alawites accounted for most of the troops, intelligence operatives, and police willing to do the regime's bidding.

PEACE PROPOSALSThese include:1)The Arab League peace plans2)Russian Peace initiatives3)Koffi Anan Peace plans4)Eid al-Adha cease fire attempt5)Geneva II.

THE ARAB LEAGUEThe Arab League began its efforts to stop the Syrian Conflict by establishing an Arab League Monitors for Syria who were to monitor the situation in Syria and provide a report. The Council of the Arab League passed various resolutions concerning the Arab plan to resolve Syria Crisis.

RESOLUTION 7442Passed by 19 of 22 members of the AL. Iraq and Lebanon, two of Syria's largest economic partners abstaining from the vote.Under this resolution the AL for the first time imposed economic sanctions on one of its members. (Although Syrias membership had been suspended two weeks before the resolution was passed).

Some of the economic sanctionsBanning the travelling of top Syrian officials and figures to Arab countries as well as freezing their deposits in the Arab countries.Stopping transactions with the Central Bank of Syria.Stopping the governmental trade transactions with the Syrian government, with the exception of the strategic commodities that affect the Syrian people.Freezing the financial assets of the Syrian government.Stopping the financial transactions with the Syrian government.

RESOLUTION 7444The AL:Called on the international community to support the government of national unity in order to enable it to fulfill its functions.Requests the Chair of the Committee and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States to brief the United Nations Security Council in support of this plan, in accordance with the resolutions of the Council of the League of Arab State.

The Russian peace initiativesIn 2012 the Russian foreign ministry suggested informal talks in Moscow between the Syrian regime and opposition, and said the Syrian authorities had already agreed to the Russian offer. Abdel Baset Seda, a member of theSyrian National Councils executive committee announced that the SNC had not received any formal invitation for such talks, but would decline if one arrived.In 2013 Russia again announced it was trying to broker talks in Moscow between the Syrian government and opposition, but that the U.S. and Russian negotiators failed to agree on whether or not Assad should be forced out of office.

KOFFI ANNAN PEACE PLAN

Launched in March 2012 intended to commit both the Syrian regime and opposition to a cease fire and commit the Syrian regime to initiate deliberations with the opposition on their aspirations and concerns. After Annan on 12 April had assumed that both parties had agreed to a cease fire, the UN on 1 May had to admit that both parties were violating it.

Eid al-Adha cease fire attempt

Lakhadar Brahimi an Algerian diplomat appealed on both the Syrian government and the armed opposition to stop the killing during the Islamic festival ofEid Al-Adha.Government and most of the opposition groups said yes to his appeal.Its success lasted for a short while after which both parties accused the other of not having stopped its violence.

GENEVA IIThe conference was proposed by the UN with the aim of bringing the Syrian regime and opposition together to discuss a transitional government.The transitional government was to have full executive powers.

ContGeneva II Conference 2014The most notable success is the recent passing of the UN Security Council Resolution 2139 demanding access for humanitarian aid convoys.

GENEVA CONVENTIONS1) Geneva protocol of 1925 signed by Syria in 1968 against the use of chemical or biological weapons. Known as Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare.

CONT2) Common Article 3 to the 1949 Geneva Conventions.Article 3 coverssituations of non-international armed conflicts.These conflicts vary and may include traditional civil wars, internal armed conflicts that spill over into other States or internal conflicts in which third States or a multinational force intervenes alongside the government. The Article establishes fundamental rules from which no derogation is permitted.

3) Additional Protocol II (non- international conflicts)The aim of the Protocol is to extend the essential rules of the law of armed conflicts to internal wars.Syria is not, however, a party to 1977 Additional Protocol II so its provisions are not directly applicable.

Mass Atrocities, Proxy Wars and Foreign InterestsBy Valentine Khaminwa

Mass AtrocitiesWidespread and often systematic acts of violence against civilians by state or non-state armed groups, including killing, causing serious bodily or mental harm, or deliberately inflicting conditions of life that cause serious bodily or mental harm.

Broad definition goes beyond declared war and armed conflict.

Examples of Mass AtrocitiesCambodian genocide 1970sForced disappearance, abduction and killing in ArgentinaMassacres in Zimbabwe in the 1980sTarget violence e.g. 2007-8 post-election violence in Kenya. Whether conflict is legitimated or not, mass atrocities as witnessed in the case of Syria are always illegal

Competing legal principlesCompetition. Derogation. Reservation. Lack of ratification. Enforcement mechanisms.

Self-determinationHumanitarian interventionState responsibility to protectThe principle of cultural relativismThe principle of equalityJustification, perceived emergency

Seventy years since the Holocaust and 21 years after Rwanda, the UN still lacks a comprehensive policy framework .

Proxy WarA war instigated by a power that does not participate in the warfare directly.The Korean War 1950-1953Proxy relative term applicable to all wars: 1915 - Armenia1933 The Holocaust1975 - Cambodia1994 Rwanda 1995 Bosnia2003 DarfurWar by another definition America, discrimination

Foreign Interests in SyriaColonialismRussiaAmericaIranSaudi ArabiaRegional neighborsInternational bodies and NGOs

Quincy KiptooArmed Groups in the ConflictIHLEffects of the War

Armed GROUPS IN THE CONFLICT

Allied to the ASAAD govtSyrian Armed Forces: they are approximately 178,000HezbollahAl Baath BrigadesShabiha militiasAl AbbasSyrian ResistanceArab National GuardPopular Front for the Liberation of PalestineJaysh al-Muwahhideen

Supported BYRussia North Korea Iran

OPPOSITIONIslamic FrontFree Syrian Army

Supported by;QatarSaudi ArabiaTurkey UnitedStates FranceLibya

NON ALIGNED ISIS?ISIL?

INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW

Law of Warlimit the effects of war( war is inevitable) Source of this LawOriginally C.I.L but now codified under the Geneva Conventions, its protocols, an array of other Conventions, military manualsCivil War

CriteriaMinimum amount of organizationMinimum level of intensityGravity of the ClashesThe numbers of casualtiesThe number of groupsProsecutor v Tadic case;Conflict of a Non International Nature

Intl Law developed along Rousseau's maximWar is a relationship between state- stateApplicable laws- Geneva Conventions, A.P.1, I.C.C.P.R and C.I.LOverview of I.H.L principles as well as Conventions violatedDistinctionProhibition of attacks against those hors de combatProhibition on the infliction of unnecessary sufferingPrinciple of proportionalityNotion of necessityPrinciple of humanity

Rules that govern NIAC are way less

DistinctionProhibition of attacks against those hors de combatProhibition on the infliction of unnecessary sufferingPrinciple of proportionalityNotion of necessityPrinciple of humanity

Overview of I.H.L principles as well as Conventions violated

Cultural property violationChemical weapons violationRight to life -ICCPRProhibition of torture-ICCPRRight to fair trial-ICCPR

Consequential violations

Effects of the War

Internally Displaced PersonsThere are approximately about 6.5 million people that have been displacedLegal problemsRights that need to be protected but are notThe right to protection as part of the general populationThe right To family UnityProtection and prevention of recruitment of child soldiers below 15 years Mapipiran Massacre v Columbia

RefugeesThere are about 3 million refugees in Syrias immediate neighbors.They too have rights that need to be taken care of Right of entry Principle of non RefoulementKituo Cha Sheria and others v The Attorney General and anotherRight to identity papersRight to apply for asylumRe: Matter of Fauziya KasingaSamow Mumin Mohammed and others v Attorney General

DestructionPropertyCultural heritageEconomy in shambles..Prevented children from going to school

The U.N continues to call for a political solution to the problem.The U.N security council should/may intervene

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?

Revolution in law

WHAT WILL PROB. HAPPEN legally

Doctrine of State necessity