system dynamic model for urmia lake presented at isdc 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Toward Effective Water Diplomacy by Using System Dynamics: Case Study
The 33rd Int. Conf. of the System Dynamics SocietyCambridge, MA, July 19–23, 2015
Mahdi Zarghami, Mohammad Amir Rahmani
In the name of God
Massive WATER MISMANAGEMENTPhoto source http://www.greenfieldreporter.com/view/photos/2ccd4b895c9240849780b49cabf3bb04/789429673355
Urmia Lake, Iran
Photo source http://commons.wikimedia.org
~550 plant species+315 animal speciesincluding unique Artemia
Urmia Lake is Drying UpUrmia Lake is Drying Up
Photo Ebrahim Noroozi
Precipitation, temperature and water level during 1966 to 2010
Zoljoodi and Didevarasl, Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (2014)6
Pond irrigation! May 2014
7http://fetollahrashedi.blogfa.com/
Number of wells!
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9(CIWP, 2014)
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Which point? Human consumption
Lake level
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Engineering News Record, 20 September 1993 15
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Lake VolumeEvaporation
Temperature
Rainfall
GroundwaterGW Extraction
Total Demand
PopulationBirth Death
Migration
Agr. Demand
Domestic Demand
Indust. Demand
Agr AreaDecrease AreaIncrease Area
Cloud seedingoff/on
Save
Recharge Coef.
From Lake toGroundwater
Lake AreaDirect rainfall
<Time>Climate Change
Scenario
<Time>
<Lake Area>
Evaporation Rate
F(Volume-Area)
Birth Rate Death Rate
Migration Rate
Agr Need perArea
Rate of surfaceconsupmtion
Domestic Demandper Capita
Surface Water
Surface WaterExtraction
Available surfacewater
Outlet to Lake
Runoff
Recharge
<Rainfall>
Pan Coeff
Salt Coeff
Agr Area in BaseYear
Rate of GroudnwaterConsumption
Density of CultivationDensity Increase
Discharge innonagri season
Discahrge in agrseason
Shortage fromsurface water
<Shortage fromsurface water>
Runoff Coef Aveg forUpper Areas
Controlled water innonagri season
<Time>
Surface WaterSupposed Consumption
Groundwater SupposedConsumption
EfficiencyIncrease
Efficieny IncreasePolicy
<Alarm>
Diversion fromZaab
Diversion fromAras
Upper Areas ofWatershed
Middle Areas ofWatershed
Runoff Coef Aveg forMiddle Areas
<Upper Areas ofWatershed>
<Middle Areas ofWatershed>
Average of UpperCoef
Average ofMiddle Coef
Diversion from Arasin Model
Aras off/on
<Time>
Zaab off/on
Diversion fromZaab in Model
<Controlled water innonagri season>
<Time>
Drainage toSurface Water
<Drainage toSurface Water>
Consumed Water
Change-Alarm
<Ala
<Rainfall>
Surface Return
Rate of SurfaceReturn<Consumed
Water>
Rate ofGrounwater Return
GroundwaterReturn
<News><Percentage of
Supply>
Birth Rate-Percentage of Supply
Level
A1B Temp
A2 Temp
B1 Te
A1B Precp
A2 Precp
B1 Precp<Climate Change
Scenario>
Cloud SeedingCloud SeedingImpact
EIT
<Time>
<T
CostDe
Cloud SeedingCost
Cost of EffIncrea
<Domestic and IndWater Pricing Policy>
<Agriculture WaterPricing Policy>
Model is OK!
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Effective tool for Water Diplomacy
Restoration Plan 1 (demand side)Increasing irrigation efficiency (4% annually)
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Restoration Plan 2 (demand side)Reducing agricultural area (0-5% annually)
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Restoration Plan 3 (supply side)Cloud seeding (7% annually)
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Restoration Plan 4 (supply side)Water transfer from Zaab (600 MCM/Y)
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Restoration Plan 5 (supply side)Water transfer from Aras (140 MCM/Y)
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Average share of plans
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Future work
MCDM on plans Monte Carlo simulation Feedback from final decision
makers
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Acknowledgments!
Prof. Shafiqul Islam (Tufts University), M. Mahdi Hashemian (MIT), Terrence Smith (Tufts University), and John Ikeda (World Bank)
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This world is the mountain, and our action the shout; the echo of the shouts comes(back) to usMaulana Rumi (1207 – 1273)
