system dynamics modeling for new mexico’s upper gila and …€¦ · · 2018-03-01billevans sw...

System Dynamics Modeling for New Mexico’s Upper Gila and San Francisco Rivers

November 14, 2007

Amy Sun, Vince Tidwell, Will Peplinski, Geoff Klise, Alison Williams, Jim Brainard

GeohydrologySandia National Laboratories

[email protected], (505)284-5861

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration

under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

mailto:[email protected]

Water Planning in New Mexico

Gila Water Settlements

• 1964 Gila River ApportionmentUS Supreme Court adopted a stipulation to allow equitable apportionment of Gila River between AZ and NM. NM beneficial use of Gila water (totaling 30,000 AF/yr) is declared and enforced by the OSE.

• 1968 Central Arizona Project (CAP)NM is allowed an additional 180,000 AF over any running 10-yr period. This provision did not allow funding for NM to divert add’l 18,000 AF/yr, and did not allow diversion over objections of Sr. downstream users.

• 2004 Arizona Water Settlement Act (AWSA)180,000 AF is reduced to 140,000 AF.Funding is provided to NM to administer its CAP water.Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement (CUFA) spells out the terms of NM diversion without objections of downstream users.

Other Context

• On June 3, 1924, at Aldo Leopold's insistence, Gila became the world's first designated Wilderness area (and also New Mexico's largest Wilderness). It is comprised of 558,014 acres and now administered by the USFS.

SF Reserve gauge

Largo Creek

HigginsTributary flow

To Alma

Jones

Romero

Kiehne

Middle FriscoTularosa River

San Francisco(1889,1890,1889,1900)

Lower Frisco(1850,1900)

Higgins (1875)

Kelly

Balke (1891)

Saliz Creek

GSF AgricultureElaborate Ditch Conveyancedating back to 1800s.

Gauge

Cienega

Cienega Creek

Pond/Reservoir

Ditch

Hightower

The School

Ditch#1 (1885)Ditch (1907)

Nigrito CreekBrennard (1907)

Romero-Cordova (1885)

Motivation for Modeling• Drivers

– NM Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement • additional 140,000 AF of Gila Basin water can be diverted in any ten-year

period.• $66 and $128 million to be used for efforts related to meeting water

demand.– Lower Colorado River Compact.– Unique ecology in the region.– Co-existence of agricultural, mining, and human demands.

• Objectives– Create decision support tool to address the following questions:

• Given various constraints, how much water is available from where, when and to what purpose?

• Given various constraints, how much water is in demand from where, when and to what purpose?

• What are the tradeoffs among various approaches to managing this water?

– Provide a medium for communicating with decision-makers and the public.

Collaborative Modeling Team• Implemented an open and transparent model

development process:

• Team met between October 2005 and July 2007.• Team met every other week for roughly two hours via

WebEx. https://waterportal.sandia.gov• Face-to-face every quarterly.• May, June, July 2007 workshops.

GOAL => Public software

Membership is voluntary.Participation is required.Team develops causal structure of model.Team identifies data.Sandia develops model.Team reviews model and output.

https://waterportal.sandia.gov/

Team CompositionBureau of ReclamationNew Mexico Interstate Stream CommissionUS Fish and Wildlife ServiceMunicipalities of Silver City and DemingSoil and Water Commission representatives from Grant, Catron, and Luna CountiesThe Nature ConservancyGila Conservation Coalition Concerned citizensSandia National Laboratories

Meeting Venue http://waterportal.sandia.gov

GSF Study Area

SW Structure Follows A Coarse-Grained Physical Description

Reaches Delineated by Flow Gauges and Natural Boundaries

SW/GW Interaction Within Each Reach

ET

Gila River Ag Fields

Shallow aquifer

Canals

Regional aquifer

Regional recharge

Pumping from regional recharge

Pumping from shallow aquifer

Regional recharge

Irrigation Diversions

West M

imbres Basin

SE Big BurroMountain Mangas Trench

Silver City

Northeast ofSilver City

Hurley

Mim

bres River

East Mimbres BasinDeming

Columbus

Black Range

Grant County

Sierra County

Dona Ana County

Luna County

Bayard

Hurley

Silver City

Deming

Columbus

Santa Clara

West M

imbres Basin


Silver City


Hurley

Mim

bres River


Columbus

Black Range

Grant County

Sierra County

Dona Ana County

Luna County

Bayard

Hurley

Silver City

Deming

Columbus

Santa Clara

West M

imbres Basin


Silver City


Hurley

Mim

bres River


Columbus

Black Range

Grant County

Sierra County

Dona Ana County

Luna County

Bayard

Hurley

Silver City

Deming

Columbus

Santa Clara

West M

imbres Basin


Silver City


Hurley

Mim

bres River


Columbus

Black Range

Grant County

Sierra County

Dona Ana County

Luna County

Bayard

Hurley

Silver City

Deming

Columbus

Santa Clara

Mimbres Basin Groundwater Sub-basins

GW Aquifers using GIS, OSE Database

Gila Basin GW Alluvial Aquifer Boundary

A

B

Delay InB = OutA (t+Δt)RecycleA = RecycleB (t+Dt)

Delay InB = OutA (t+Δt)RecycleA = RecycleB (t+Dt)

A

BMass Balanceaccumulation = In – Out

+ RxnFeedbackaccum.= In–Out+Rxn+Recycle

Hydrology

Continuity, Darcy Flow, Diffusion, Feedback, Delay

Climate change, land use change, growth, contamination.

Mixed Technical, Political, & Regulatory bodies

month-years

acre-ft/year

What do we mean by System Analysis?

Engineering

Models

Transient Dynamics

Continuity, Mass Balance, Thermodynamics, Fluid Mechanics, Feedback

Disturbance, Forcing

functions, Exogenous variables

Rxn Kinetics, Start-up/Shut-down, Raw Material

Likely Sphere of Influence Technical

Time scale sec-day

Rate Quantity kg/hr

Surface watersupply

Surface waterdiversion

Groundwaterpumped

Reservoirs

Tributaries

Riparian ET

Seepage

Commercial Residential

Crop

Conveyance

Mining

Livestock demand

Groundwatersupply

Regional aquiferinteractions

Return Flow

Surface waterrights

Well rights andpermits

Total wateravailable

ESA demand

Legal Total waterdemand

Municipal demand

Agriculturaldemand

Industrial demand

GW Return

System dynamics sets the framework for modeling intricate coupling between physical and social systems

Water Balance within Each Reach

– Surface water hydrology,– Groundwater hydrology,– Watershed hydrology,– Water demand, and

• Residential/commercial,• Industrial/mining,• Agricultural/livestock, and• Evaporative/riparian

– Institutional constraints.• Compact,• CUFA, and• Minimum Flow.

– Subreaches are created to capture “critical” sections.

SD using PowerSim

Note: These two gagesneed to be correctlyrouted to flow into

"Storage CliftonSolomon"- rpt060515

Gila river from Gila Gauge to Redrock Gauge

Gila River Redrock Gauge to Virden Gauge

Gila River from AZ-NM Border toClifton Gauge

SF Reserve to SF Glenwood

(GilaRiver Clifton Gauge + SF-Gila Confluence) to Solomon

Gauge

Note: This Routed flwo hasn'tbeen calculated because I need to

decouple Dick's CliftonSolomonequation into two segments

SF River Glenwood Gauge to NM-AZBorder

This quantity will beobtained from thewatershed model

These outflows are conntected to the GW basinsin a separate diagram marked GW. River

Leakage can be positive or negative dependingon the relative head difference between thereach and its neighboring shallow aquifers.

Gila river from Headwater to Gila Gauge

SF River from NM-AZ Border toSFClifton Gauge

SF Headwater to Reserve

Gila River from Virden Gauge toGila Clifton Gauge

Gila River from Virden Gauge toAZ-NM Border

SFRiver Clifton Gauge to SF-Gila Confluence

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

Storage GilaRedrock

Storage RedrockVirden

GilaRedrock Calc

GilaVirden Calc

Irrigated Land RedrockVirden

Irrigated Land GilaRedrock

GilaGila

Storage VirdenClifton

GilaClifton Calc

Storage CliftonSolomon

GilaSolomon Calc

Storage GlenwoodClifton

Storage ReserveGlenwood

SFReserve

SFGlenwood Calc

SFClifton Calc

Irrigated Land ReserveGlenwood

Routed Flow Virden

Routed Flow Clifton

Routed Flow GilaSolomon

Routed FlowSFConfluence

initialize ReachStorage

ReturnConveyanceGilaRedrock

GW RedrockVirden

ReturnConveyanceRedrockVirden

Agri DiversionRedrockVirden

Ditch DiversionVirdenClifton

Ditch DiversionGilaCliftonSolomon

SeepageRageRedrockVirden

initial irrigationstorage

Irrigated Land VirdenClifton


C&I Sorage VirdenNMState

C&I Stock ReserveGlenwood

ReturnReserveGlenwood

Irrigated Land GlenwoodClifton

SeepageRateNMStateSFClifton

C&I Stock NMStateSFClifton

ReturnNMStateSFClifton

Irrigated Land CliftonSolomon

ReturnConveyanceGilaCliftonSolomon

Return GilaRedrock

ReturnConveyanceReserveGlenwood

ReturnconveyanceNMStateSFClifton





SeepageRateGilaRedrock

SeepageRateReserveGlenwood


C&I Stock GlenwoodNMState

ReturnGlenwoodNMState

Civil & Industrial stock GilaRedrock

Initial C&I storage

DitchSeepageGilaRedrock

DitchOpenH2OEvapGilaRedrock

AgriCU GilaRedrock

RiverLeakageGilaRedrock

TotC&C SWDemandGilaRedrock

TotLivestockSWDemandGilaRedrock

OpenH2OEvapGilaRedrock

Total SWWDGilaRedrock

SW WithdrawalGilaRedrock

DitchDiversionGilaRedrock

RiverLeakageRedrockVirden

DitchOpenH2OEvapRedrockVirden

DitchSeepageRedrockVirden

Total SWWDRedrockVirden

TotC&C SWDemandRedrockVirden

TotMining SWDemand

RedrockVirden

TotLivestockSWDemand

RedrockVirden

AgriCURedrockVirden

SW WithdrawalRedrockVirden

OpenH2OEvapRedrockVirden

ReturnRedrockVirden

AgriCU VirdenClifton

Initial C&I storage

SeepageRateVirdenClifton

SW WithdrawalGilaCliftonSolomon

ReturnVirdenNMState

ReturnGilaCliftonSolomon

DitchOpenH2OEvapVirdenClifton

Total SWWDVirdenNMState

TotC&C SWDemandVirdenNMState

TotMiningSWDemand

VirdenNMState


VirdenNMState

RiverLeakageVirdenClifton

ReturnConveyanceVirdenClifton

SW WithdrawalVirdenNMState

C&I Storage GilaCliftonSolomon

AgriCUGilaCliftonSolomon

TotC&C SWDemandGilaCliftonSolomon

TotMiningSWDemand

GilaCliftonSolomon


GilaCliftonSolomon

OpenH2OEvapGilaCliftonSolomon

RiverLeakageGilaCliftonSolomon

Total SWWDGilaCliftonSolomon

AgriCUReserveGlenwood

Total SWWDReserveGlenwood

TotC&C SWDemandReserveGlenwood

TotMiningSWDemand

ReserveGlenwood


ReserveGlenwood

DitchOpenH2OEvapReserveGlenwood DitchSeepage

ReserveGlenwood

OpenH2OEvapReserveGlenwood

RiverLeakageReserveGlenwood

Ditch DiversionReserveGlenwood

SW WithdrawalReserveGlenwood

Initial C&I storage


SW WithdrawalGlenwoodClifton

Ditch DiversionNMStateSFClifton

SW WithdrawalGlanewoodNMState

DitchOpenH2OEvapGilaCliftonSolomon

Storage UpperGila

Irrigated Land UpperGila

Civil & Industrial Stock UpperGila

Ditch DiversionUpperGila

ReturnConveyanceUpperGila

Seepage RateUpperGila

SW WithdrawalUpperGila

DitchOpenH2OEvapUpperGila

DitchSeepageUpperGila

AgriCU UpperGila


Initial C&I storage

Total SWWDUpperGila

TotMining SWDemand UpperGila

TotC&C SWDemUpperGilak

TotLivestockSWDemandUpperGila

Return UpperGila

TributaryGilaRedrock

Bill Evans Lake

BillEvans Lake SWWithdrawal

BillEvans OpenH2OEvaporation

Mogollon flow intoGila

Blue into SanFrancisco Clifton

Tributary SFClifton

Storage UpperSF

Ditch DiversionUpper SF

SeepageRateUpperSF

Irrigated Land UpperSF

C&IStorage UpperSF

ReturnConveyanceUpperSF

Return UpperSF


SW WithdrawalUpperSF


C&I Sorage NMStateClifton

ReturnNMStateClifton

SW WithdrawalNMStateClifton

AgriCU UpperSF

DitchSeepageUpperSF

DitchOpenH2OEvapUpperSF

RiverLeakageUpperSF

TotC&C DemandUpperSF

TotMiningSWDemandUpperSF

TotLivestockSWDemandUpperSF

Total SWWDUpperSF

OpenH2OEvapUpperSF

Initial C&I storage

Total SWWDNMStateClifton

TotC&C SWDemandNMStateClifton

TotMiningSWDemand

NMStateClifton

Total SWWDGlenwoodNMState

TotC&C SWDemandGlenwoodNMState

TotMiningSWDemand

GlenwoodNMState


GlenwoodNMState

AgriCUNMStateSFClifton

DitchOpenH2OEvapNMStateSFClifton

DitchSeepageNMStateSFClifton

Total SWWDNMStateSFClifton

TotC&C SWDemandNMStateSFClifton

TotMiningSWDemand

NMStateSFClifton


NMStateSFClifton


NMStateClifton


TularosaAragon

HistoricalGilaRedrock Ditch

Flow

Actual DitchFlowGilaRedrock

Ditch CalculationMethod

OpenH2O EvapGlenwoodSFClifton

OpenH2OEvapVirdenClifton

RiverLeakageGlenwoodSFClifton

DitchSeepageVirdenClifton

Storage SFClifton to confluence

Initial SFClifton toconfluence

BillEvans SW WDGilaredrock

GilaheadwaterInput

Routed FlowRedrock

Routed FlowSFClifton

Routed FlowGlenwood

SFHeadwater Inputfrom Luna Lake

subsurfacerecharge

GilaRedrock

Model Ditch FlowGilaRedrock

Model Ditch FlowRedrockVirden

Model Ditch FlowReserveGlenwood

Model Ditch FlowUpper SF

Model Ditch FlowUpperGila

Model Ditch FlowVirdenClifton

future OpenEvap

DataEnd

BillEvansOpenWaterEvap

Livestock SWdemand GilaRedrock

Livestock SWdemand

RedrockVirden

Livestock SWdemand UpperGila

Livestock SWdemand

VirdenClifton

Livestock SWdemand

GlenwoodSFClifton

Livestock SWdemand

ReserveGlenwood

Livestock SWdemand UpperSF

DitchFlowGilaRedrocknowinter

DitchFlowRedrockVirden

nowinter

DitchFlowReserveGlenwood

nowinter

GilaRedrock

63.77 cfs

0.00 cfs

632.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

-11.96 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

91.00 AF

0.00 AF/da

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

317.74 cfs

402.00 AF

86.00 AF

7.60 cfs

33.41 cfs

0.00 cfs

256.00 AF

0.00 cfs

233.63 cfs

56.25 cfs

2.52 cfs

0.00 AF/da

0.00 cfs0.00 cfs

3.62 cfs0.33 cfs

-23.55 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

186.00 AF

0.00 cfs

0.97 cfs

0.08 cfs

0.00 cfs

140.92 cfs

0.00 AF/da

342.00 AF

180.00 AF-21.26 cfs

0.35 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

140.92 cfs

51.52 cfs

56.25 cfs

2.52 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 cfs

200.00 AF

33.41 cfs

0.72 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 AF/da

6.07 cfs

0.84 cfs

317.74 cfs

0.00 cfs

0.00 AF

50.00 AF

0.00 cfs

0.00 AF/da

0.04 cfs

0.24 cfs

0.20 cfs

0.04 cfs

1,270.00 cfs

ft³

R UpperGila

R GilaRedrock

R RedrockVirde

5

6

1910 2006

•Historical non-Ag GW use.•Irrigated land (crop survey.)•Franks Well Field.•PD Diversion monthly records.•Population, city & county

•River Flow•Ditch Flow•Temperature•Livestock•Well distribution, H2O rights•Gila Water Commissioner

•SW Planning Report (5-yr intervals)

•Tributaries – Duck creek Peak Flow-Mangas creek Peak Flow-Blue River-Tularosa River, etc.

19811968

1979

20051936

20051999

Available Historical Data

1936

20001975

2006

19812005

1985 2004

Calibration window

USGS, OSE reports, WATERS, GIS, NMDAg

19571988 2003

2004

1936

present

present

Ditch-River correlationGila nr Gila + Mogollon Creek vs Upper Gila Ditch

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 50 100 150 200

GG + MC

Upp

er G

ila D

itc

199920002002200320042005Correlation

Gila-Redrock Ditch and River flows

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

9/6/

1999

12/6

/199

9

3/6/

2000

6/6/

2000

9/6/

2000

12/6

/200

0

3/6/

2001

6/6/

2001

9/6/

2001

12/6

/200

1

3/6/

2002

6/6/

2002

9/6/

2002

12/6

/200

2

3/6/

2003

6/6/

2003

9/6/

2003

12/6

/200

3

3/6/

2004

6/6/

2004

9/6/

2004

12/6

/200

4

3/6/

2005

6/6/

2005

9/6/

2005

12/6

/200

5

3/6/

2006

Time

cfs

GilaGila Gauge Flow, USGS

Total of UG,FtWest,GFarm,&GHarper fromOSEModel-2 based on correlation only

Model Calibration

• Dynamics between fluvial and regional aquifers not all captured.

• Tributary contributions from summer monsoon events and snowmelt are missed

Calculated vs. Measured Gila Virden Gage

01 02 03 04 050

100

200

300

400

500cfs

Calculated vs. Measured Gila-Redrock Gauge

01 02 03 04 050

100

200

300

400

500cfs

• Upstream peaks may be attentuated downstream.

RED=CalculatedBlack=Measured

User ControlClimate

CUFA

PopulationAgriculture

MinimumRiverFlows

MineLeased

Water Rights

Pausethe

Model

ExecutiveSummary

Climate Options and Controls

Return to Top

Future Temperature Data

Repeat Historical Temperature Data

Use Average Temperature

Use 40 Year URGWOPS sequence

Increase/Decrease Hydrograph by Percent

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100%

Add or Subtract CFS on Hydrograph

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50cfs

Future River Flow Data

Repeat Historical Hydrograph Data

Use Average Annual Hydrograph

Use 40 Year URGWOPS Sequence

Temperature and River Data Categories are related.Choose of the three options in one category willautomatically set the option in the other category.

The historical hydrograph and temperature data ateach gauge vary bewteen 1979 and 2005.

The average hydrograph is derived from all the databetween 1955 and 2005.

URGWOP stands for Upper Rio Grande WaterOperations and Planning Study. In that studyhistorical data was re-ordered by year to create adrought sequence, a short wet sequence, and a longwet sequence. Comparison of Rio Grande data withthat of the Gila-San Francisco Basins suggests acorrelation such that wet years along the Rio Grandetend to be wet in southwest New Mexico too. It issimilar with dry years. Here we order the Gila-SanFrancisco hydrographs to follow the URGWOPSpattern. It may allow for some comparison betweenmodels in the future. If the starting year is 2006,then drought happens 2009-2018 and wet years are2019-2023 and 2026-2037.

Version:D R A F T

20071016

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #100

200

400

600

800

1,000

Percent Temp Perturbation

-15-13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15%

0 %

0 %

0 cfs

i

GSFDecisionSupportTool

Minimum River Flows

Return to Top Return to CUFA

San Francisco River Basin

Gila River Basin

Gila-Redrock Minimum

150 cfs Fall

150 cfs Winter

150 cfs Spring

150 cfs Summer

Virden-Clifton Minimum

150 cfs Fall

150 cfs Winter

150 cfs Spring

150 cfs Summer

Redrock-Virden Minimum

150 cfs Fall

150 cfs Winter

150 cfs Spring

150 cfs Summer

Modify Gila-Redrock Modify Redrock-Virden Modify Virden-Clifton

Use Season Variable Flows

Use Constant Flows

Choose Typeof Minimum

Flows

Version:D R A F T

20071016

i

San Francisco Constant Potential Flow

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50cfs

Gila Constant Potential Flow

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190cfs

10 cfs

150 cfs

Upper Gila Minimum

150 cfs Fall

150 cfs Winter

150 cfs Spring

150 cfs Summer

Modify Upper Gila

Reserve-Glenwood Minimum

150 cfs Fall

150 cfs Winter

150 cfs Spring

150 cfs Summer

Glenwood-Clifton Minimum

150 cfs Fall

150 cfs Winter

150 cfs Spring

150 cfs Summer

Modify Reserve-Glenwood

Modify Glenwood-Clifton

Upper San Francisco Minimum

150 cfs Fall

150 cfs Winter

150 cfs Spring

150 cfs Summer

Modify Upper SanFranciscso

1 2 3

1 2 3


When Ag demand switch isON, the minimum flow

accounts for thecompounding effects of

agricultural diversions thatthe OSE commits to the

farmers in the GSF region.This is added to the model

when accounting forminimum flow.

iAg Demand isCurrently

OFFON

#5 <350 cfs

#6 SF Minimum flows

#3 DV calls

#7 SFSumAvailable Flow & PD

#8 - 40K/10yrs

#9 - 4K/yr

#10 - 64K/yr

#12 - Minimum flows

#1-30K San Carlos

#11 - NM water bank

Gila Gauge

San FranciscoClifton Gauge

#2 Bypass Flows

San FranciscoGlenwood Gauge

Blue CliftonGauge

NMDDR=V1 V2

Gila Allowable=min(V1 , V2 )

w2w1

SF Feasible = min(w1 , w2 )

SF AllowableTotal Allowable

FINAL DIVERSION

FGila FSF

GO

GO

GO

GO

GOGO

GOGO

CUFA Controls

20-year Summary – SF Diversion OFF

Return to Top

Version:D R A F T

20071016


Projections of Water Supply & Demand

GSF Basin SWHydrology

GSF SWIrrigationSummary

CUFASummary

GSF GWSummary

Mimbres GWSummary

Non-Agriculture Water Demand by Area

1 2 30

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000AF

No

n-A

gri

cu

ltu

re

Agriculture

1 2 3 4 50

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000AF

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Gila Non-Ag SF Non-Ag Mimbres Non-Ag

189,532 AF 20,169 AF 608,663 AF

189,532 AF 20,169 AF 608,663 AF

Gila SW Ag SF SW Ag Gila GW Ag SF GW Ag Mimbres GW

188,475 AF 41,428 AF 81,525 AF 18,193 AF 559,504 AF

188,475 AF 41,428 AF 81,525 AF 18,193 AF 559,504 AF

Potential Annual Diversion under CUFA (no min flow)

1 2 30

10,000

20,000

30,000AF

CU

FA

su

mm

ary

plo

tsTotal Potential Gila Potential SF

13,333 AF 13,333 AF 0 AF

13,333 AF 13,333 AF 0 AF

BASELINESUMMARY

BASELINESUMMARY

Baseline Summary is the20-year summary basedon default values of inputparameters.

BaselineSummary

baseline run

SF Diversion OFF

current run

20-year Summary – SF Diversion ON

Return to Top

Version:D R A F T

20071016


Projections of Water Supply & Demand

GSF Basin SWHydrology

GSF SWIrrigationSummary

CUFASummary

GSF GWSummary

Mimbres GWSummary

Non-Agriculture Water Demand by Area

1 2 30

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000AF

No

n-A

gri

cu

ltu

re

Agriculture

1 2 3 4 50

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000AF

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Gila Non-Ag SF Non-Ag Mimbres Non-Ag

189,532 AF 20,169 AF 608,663 AF

189,532 AF 20,169 AF 608,663 AF

Gila SW Ag SF SW Ag Gila GW Ag SF GW Ag Mimbres GW

188,475 AF 41,428 AF 81,525 AF 18,193 AF 559,504 AF

188,475 AF 41,428 AF 81,525 AF 18,193 AF 559,504 AF

Potential Annual Diversion under CUFA (no min flow)

1 2 30

10,000

20,000

30,000AF

CU

FA

su

mm

ary

plo

tsTotal Potential Gila Potential SF

13,333 AF 10,558 AF 2,773 AF

13,333 AF 13,333 AF 0 AF

BASELINESUMMARY

BASELINESUMMARY

Baseline Summary is the20-year summary basedon default values of inputparameters.

BaselineSummary

SF Diversion ON

current run baseline run

20-year Summary – SF Diversion OFFDaily Total River Flow vs. Total New Mexico Daily Diversion Right (NMDDR)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250

500

1,000

1,500

2,000cfs

10-year Cumulative Diversion

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

AF

Yearly Cumulative Diversion

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

AF

0.00 cfs

99.13 cfs

NMDDR

Sum of Rivers

0.00 AF0.00 AF

99,016.13 AF123,934.30 AF

with Min Flow

No Min Flow

with Min Flow

No Min Flow

Return

CUFA Model

Version:D R A F T

20071016

Location with Min Flow6Gila-Redrock

Plotted in Red

Location with Min Flow6Gila-Redrock

Plotted in Red

If the minimum flowcontrol is set atCONSTANT, there isno differentiationamongst diversionlocations.

i

Tables

Gila GW Avg Annual Rate Total Volume

Domestic Wells 20 AF/year 413 AF

DNC Wells 1,818 AF/year 35,483 AF

Municipality 657 AF/year 14,241 AF

GW to Mimbres 951 AF/year 17,865 AF

Commercial 2,183 AF/year 45,880 AF

Livestock 3,206 AF/year 67,283 AF

Mining 392 AF/year 8,367 AF

Supplemental Ag 4,692 AF/year 81,525 AF

Mimbres GW Avg Annual Rate Total Volume

Mimbres Irrigation 24,048 AF/year 559,504 AF

Mimbres Population 13,929 AF/year 258,596 AF

Mimbres Industrial 15,254 AF/year 320,316 AF

Mimbres Livestock 1,416 AF/year 29,752 AF

TestsTests - or

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

ON

1 1 2026 Days: 7,671

OFF

Test Test # False % True

Test 1 San Carlos >= 30K AF 766 90 %

Test 2 Sum of Flows > DDB 4,410 43 %

Test 3 GilaVirden > 120% Call for DV 335 96 %

Test 4 Sum of Diversions < DD Right 0 100 %

Test 5 Allowable Diversion < 350 cfs 860 89 %

Test 6 SF Clifton >= SF Minimum Flow 5,100 34 %

Test 7 SumSF gauges>120%(3 or 30cfs) 491 94 %

Test 8 CU < 140K in 10 yr 0 100 %

Test 9 San Francisco CU < 4K in 1 yr 0 100 %

Test 10 CU < 64K in 1 yr 0 100 %

Test 11 Bank is > 0 2,645 66 %

Test 12 Gila Gila >= Gila Minimum Flow 5,242 32 %

Avg Annual Rate Total Volume

SF Acreage 857 acre

SF Ag CU 1,471 AF/year 31,165 AF

SF Ag Seepage 454 AF/year 9,620 AF

SF Ag Open Evap 30 AF/year 643 AF

SF Diversion Rights 2,315 AF/year 48,614 AF

Information Sharing

• Data, presentations and meeting notes are shared at:

• https://waterportal.sandia.gov/nmstateengineer

http://www.sandia.gov/gilasanfrancisco/index.html

Questions?

Model Homepage

Gila-San Francisco Decision Support Tool


ClimateExecutiveSummary

CUFA Population

MinimumRiverFlows

MineLeased

Water RightsAgriculture

Version:D R A F T

20071016iBackgroundAbout this

Model

Pausethe

Model

Maps

The Gila San Francisco Decision Support Tool is a draft model that can not be used, disseminated, and applied without theconsent of the Gila San Francisco Collaborative Modeling Team. It is a research tool that is intended for educatingstakeholders, the interested public, and the modeling team. If you have any questions regarding the use of this tool,please contact Vince Tidwell, [email protected]

Return to Top

Version:D R A F T

20071016i

Water Rights Leased to Irrigators

0 1,0

00

2,0

00

3,0

00

4,0

00

5,0

00

6,0

00

7,0

00

8,0

00

9,0

00

10,0

00

11,0

00

12,0

00

13,0

00

14,0

00

AF/year

Phelps Dodge Mining

Specify the annualamount of water leased

back from PD toirrigators in Gila-

Redrock reach. Watertransferred to exisiting

acreage is a groundwater right.

Water Rights Leased to the Municipality of Silver City

0 1,0

00

2,0

00

3,0

00

4,0

00

5,0

00

6,0

00

7,0

00

8,0

00

9,0

00

10,0

00

11,0

00

12,0

00

13,0

00

14,0

00

15,0

00

16,0

00

17,0

00

18,0

00

19,0

00

20,0

00

21,0

00

22,0

00

23,0

00

24,0

00

25,0

00

26,0

00

27,0

00

28,0

00

29,0

00

30,0

00

31,0

00

AF/year

Water to Agriculture

Water to Municipal

Specify the annualamount of water leasedto Silver City from PD.

Water Usage Choice

Increase Acreage

Apply to Existing Acreage

The volume of water in the combined Gila-Mimbres River Basins owned by mining is 42,539 AF (maximum 44,572 AF)per year. The table in the information provides the exact split between Gila and Mimbres basin. Changes in the leasedvalues take effect on October 1 of any given year.

4,566.64 AF

Silver City Water Rights

0 AF/year

0 AF/year


Controls


Return to top

Set Minimum Flows

The CUFA model will calculate the allowable diversionusing either the streamflow values recorded by the USGSfor the historical period in question or values caluculatedby the River Routing portion of this model for some of thestreamflow sites.The sites that are calculated are: 09432000 Gila River below Blue Creek, near Virden 09444500 San Francisco River at Clifton 09448500 Gila River at head of Safford Valley

Based on historical data of the Duncan-Virden call from '99 to October'06, an average monthly call volume was computed and used in settingthe CUFA constraint.

0

20

40

60

80

100cfs

13 cfs 20 cfs 38 cfs 48 cfs 54 cfs 56 cfs 57 cfs 51 cfs 49 cfs 42 cfs 37 cfs 23 cfs

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

CUFA Model

Initial value for NM CAP Bank

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000AF

Version:

D R A F T

Streamflow Values

to use in CUFA Calculations

Use Recorded Values

Use Calculated Values

Choose a river for Diversion

20071016

By default, the model will draw a maximumamount of Gila and SF water allowed under CUFAterms and ESA flows

Divert Gila?

Yes

No

Divert SF?

Yes

No

Combined Yearly Max

64,000 AF/year

54,000 AF

i

Choose USGS or Modeled FlowsDuncan-Virden Valley Call

When Ag demand switch is ON, theminimum flow accounts for thecompounding effects of agriculturaldiversions that in the GSF region. Thisis added to the model automaticallywhen accounting for minimum flow.

i Ag Demand isCurrently

OFFON

The NM CAP WaterBank starts with 54,000 AF as a default.This value can beadjusted.

multiplier-winter

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

multiplier-summer

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

0.80

0.75

Multipliers for CalculatingNMExcess under CUFAterms. Summer refers toperiods between May andSeptember.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

year

acre

s Land w/ RightsIrrigated AcreageDecree

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Irrigated AcreageLand w/ RightsDecree

Upper GilaGilaRedrock

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

year

acre

s Land w/ RightsIrrigated LandDecree

RedrockVirdenNM Virden Valley

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

year

Acr

es

Irrigated Land= Land w/Rights

Decree

Historical Ag. Use from Hydrographic Survey - Gila

VirdenClifton

9,000 mi2 drainage area

NM CAP Bank for Gila Minimum Flow

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000AF

BA

NK

BA

LA

NC

E

Return

70,000.00 AFGraph Control

6Gila-RedrockPlotted in Red

CUFA Model

Version:D R A F T

20071016

NM CAP Bank with SF Minimum Flow

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000AF

BA

NK

BA

LA

NC

E

52,809.01 AF

Graph Control6Upper San Francisco

Plotted in Red

View 1 Year Detail

View 5 Year Detail

View 1 Year Detail

View 5 Year Detail

system dynamics modeling for new mexico’s upper gila and …€¦ · · 2018-03-01billevans sw...

Documents