System Status Update

February 2012

Overview

• Review of year to date demand and energy

• Review of recent system performance

• Outlook for summer 2012

• What is being done to meet the challenges

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Weekly peak demand

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• The peak demand in 2011 was similar to the all time high in 2007, although it should be noted it occurred before the typical winter peak period, indicating the shift in demand from winter.

• The summer demand in 2011 was generally higher than that previously experienced.

• There was an increase in the annual “energy sent out” (incl sales to Eskom from non Eskom generation) of about 1.3% (Y-Y)

2012 load growth

• Initial weeks showed a slightly higher demand than 2011, but initiatives are in place to reduce demand and results have been seen over the last few weeks.

• There has been about 0.5% energy growth Y-Y compared to the same time last year (including non Eskom sales to Eskom)

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Constrained generation trends – OCGT usage

• In 2011 we used our OCGTs more to ensure that as much as possible maintenance is done while keeping the lights on. This has been continued in 2012.

• However there is still a maintenance backlog.

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Reserve utilisation

• Although a similar number of incidents of usage of emergency and supplemental demand side options occurred, there has been a substantial increase in the volume of OCGT usage to accommodate maintenance.

6

Generation availability

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• The full and partial generation load losses are indicated above. There was a peak in November 2011 and January 2012. This has contributed to the increase in OCGT utilisation as well as influenced the availability of opportunity for maintenance.

What do we expect in summer 2012

• Year to date the system has been extremely tight with frequent use made of emergency reserves.

• Higher than normal OCGT load factors are an indication of the tightness the system has been operated at to accommodate maintenance.

• However planned maintenance requirements still exceed the capacity available for maintenance.

• In addition, generation forced outages have contributed to this, both full units and partial load losses at various stations for a number of reasons.

• This situation is not expected to ease off as outages that have previously been postponed are now getting to a point where they have to be done, for technical and statutory reasons.

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Expected system status

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• With all gas we should be operating in the green.

• Our normal planning assumption is 3600MW unplanned with 4 500MW being a risk assessment.

• It is clear that without deferring maintenance, the system status is more risky.

Date Maintenance

Excess Capacity available assuming use of 2238MW of OCGT capacity,

required 3600MW unplanned allowance, required Operating

Reserves and Forecast

Excess Capacity available assuming use of 2238MW of OCGT capacity,

required 4500MW unplanned allowance, required Operating

Reserves and Forecast

13-Jan-12. Fri 6783 51 -849

20-Jan-12. Fri 6286 -222 -1122

26-Jan-12. Thu 5445 -7 -907

31-Jan-12. Tue 5357 169 -731

07-Feb-12. Tue 5480 -144 -1044

13-Feb-12. Mon 5628 -394 -1294

20-Feb-12. Mon 5189 -133 -1033

01-Mar-12. Thu 6047 -1241 -2141

05-Mar-12. Mon 5847 -1506 -2406

14-Mar-12. Wed 5962 -1724 -2624

22-Mar-12. Thu 5367 -1256 -2156

26-Mar-12. Mon 5737 -1409 -2309

03-Apr-12. Tue 7845 -3292 -4192

10-Apr-12. Tue 7834 -3480 -4380

17-Apr-12. Tue 6671 -3187 -4087

25-Apr-12. Wed 6481 -3088 -3988

02-May-12. Wed 6509 -3425 -4325

07-May-12. Mon 6726 -3942 -4842

14-May-12. Mon 6446 -4048 -4948

24-May-12. Thu 5619 -4878 -5778

28-May-12. Mon 3716 -2801 -3701

07-Jun-12. Thu 2638 -2307 -3207

14-Jun-12. Thu 2045 -1408 -2308

21-Jun-12. Thu 1603 -1290 -2190

27-Jun-12. Wed 1603 -1520 -2420

02-Jul-12. Mon 1518 -1450 -2350

09-Jul-12. Mon 925 -1713 -2613

18-Jul-12. Wed 765 -1033 -1933

23-Jul-12. Mon 765 -185 -1085

30-Jul-12. Mon 1714 -942 -1842

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Maintenance outlook Jan - Jul 2012

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Date MaintenanceExcess Capacity available assuming use of

1300MW of OCGT capacity, required Operating Reserves and Forecast

13-Jan-12. Fri 6783 -887

20-Jan-12. Fri 6286 -1160

26-Jan-12. Thu 5445 -945

31-Jan-12. Tue 5357 -769

07-Feb-12. Tue 5480 -1082

13-Feb-12. Mon 5628 -1332

20-Feb-12. Mon 5189 -1071

01-Mar-12. Thu 6047 -2179

05-Mar-12. Mon 5847 -2444

14-Mar-12. Wed 5962 -2662

22-Mar-12. Thu 5367 -2194

26-Mar-12. Mon 5737 -2347

03-Apr-12. Tue 7845 -4230

10-Apr-12. Tue 7834 -4418

17-Apr-12. Tue 6671 -4125

25-Apr-12. Wed 6481 -4026

02-May-12. Wed 6509 -4363

07-May-12. Mon 6726 -4880

14-May-12. Mon 6446 -4986

24-May-12. Thu 5619 -5816

28-May-12. Mon 3716 -3739

07-Jun-12. Thu 2638 -3245

14-Jun-12. Thu 2045 -2346

21-Jun-12. Thu 1603 -2228

27-Jun-12. Wed 1603 -2458

02-Jul-12. Mon 1518 -2388

09-Jul-12. Mon 925 -2651

18-Jul-12. Wed 765 -1971

23-Jul-12. Mon 765 -1123

30-Jul-12. Mon 1714 -1880

Green : Sufficient capacity to meet demand, reserves and allowance for planned and unplanned maintenance of generation plant. Yellow : 0 to 1000MW short of capacity needed. Orange : 1000 to 2000 MW short of capacity needed. Red : 2000 to 4000MW short of capacity needed. Brown : Greater than 4000MW short of capacity needed

For maintenance scheduling, 1300MW of OCGT capacity is considered and the ideal scenario is to operate in the “green” zone. In planning mode, an “orange”, “red” or “brown” status is unacceptable and outages will have to be deferred.

Operation within the “green” zone is needed to manage typical risks, such as loss of a large nuclear unit, loss of imports from Cahora Bassa or multiple unit trips at the coal stations.

Required Capacity to ensure stable system operation

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• Ideally, 3 000 MW of committed capacity from supply and demand initiatives is needed immediately to keep the lights on and enable maintenance to continue.

• Reducing this target will require a significant adjustment to the maintenance programme.

• Between now and end-December 2013, the minimum targets set out in the table below need to be achieved to prevent an emergency.

  Immediate (within 1 month) (MW)

By July 2012 (MW) and sustained to end

December 2013High load factor initiatives to bring certainty to maintenance planning

1000 2000

Pre-Emergency/ Contingency/Peaking initiatives

2000 1000

Way Forward

Eskom has set up a recovery team to:

• Execute the plan to secure identified and approved demand and supply levers.

• Step up communications to encourage greater energy efficiency.

• Be clear about our maintenance philosophy and the governance processes to manage risk and specify operating envelopes for power generation plants.

• Implement an effective outage strategy, using maintenance windows to reduce the backlog, deal with emerging risks and conduct scheduled, design-based maintenance.

• Implement a more sustainable maintenance philosophy throughout the generation fleet.

The Department of Public Enterprises has established a task team with Eskom to develop the detailed delivery schedule and review progress, coordinate activities that require Government intervention, prepare updates for Cabinet and align communication and stakeholder plans.

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System Status if initiatives materialise

3600MW Unplanned Allowance 4500MW Unplanned Allowance

Date Maintenance

Excess Capacity available assuming use of 2238MW

of OCGT capacity, required 3600MW unplanned allowance, required

Operating Reserves and Forecast

MW risk incl. gas with 1000MW mitigation

MW risk incl. gas with 2000MW mitigation

MW risk incl. gas with 3000MW mitigation

Excess Capacity available assuming use of 2238MW of

OCGT capacity, required 4500MW unplanned allowance, required

Operating Reserves and Forecast

MW risk incl. gas with 1000MW mitigation

MW risk incl. gas with 2000MW mitigation

MW risk incl. gas with 3000MW mitigation

13-Jan-12. Fri 6783 51 1051 2051 3051 -849 151 1151 215120-Jan-12. Fri 6286 -222 778 1778 2778 -1122 -122 878 187826-Jan-12. Thu 5445 -7 993 1993 2993 -907 93 1093 209331-Jan-12. Tue 5357 169 1169 2169 3169 -731 269 1269 226907-Feb-12. Tue 5480 -144 856 1856 2856 -1044 -44 956 195613-Feb-12. Mon 5628 -394 606 1606 2606 -1294 -294 706 170620-Feb-12. Mon 5189 -133 867 1867 2867 -1033 -33 967 196701-Mar-12. Thu 6047 -1241 -241 759 1759 -2141 -1141 -141 85905-Mar-12. Mon 5847 -1506 -506 494 1494 -2406 -1406 -406 59414-Mar-12. Wed 5962 -1724 -724 276 1276 -2624 -1624 -624 37622-Mar-12. Thu 5367 -1256 -256 744 1744 -2156 -1156 -156 84426-Mar-12. Mon 5737 -1409 -409 591 1591 -2309 -1309 -309 69103-Apr-12. Tue 7845 -3292 -2292 -1292 -292 -4192 -3192 -2192 -119210-Apr-12. Tue 7834 -3480 -2480 -1480 -480 -4380 -3380 -2380 -138017-Apr-12. Tue 6671 -3187 -2187 -1187 -187 -4087 -3087 -2087 -108725-Apr-12. Wed 6481 -3088 -2088 -1088 -88 -3988 -2988 -1988 -98802-May-12. Wed 6509 -3425 -2425 -1425 -425 -4325 -3325 -2325 -132507-May-12. Mon 6726 -3942 -2942 -1942 -942 -4842 -3842 -2842 -184214-May-12. Mon 6446 -4048 -3048 -2048 -1048 -4948 -3948 -2948 -194824-May-12. Thu 5619 -4878 -3878 -2878 -1878 -5778 -4778 -3778 -277828-May-12. Mon 3716 -2801 -1801 -801 199 -3701 -2701 -1701 -70107-Jun-12. Thu 2638 -2307 -1307 -307 693 -3207 -2207 -1207 -20714-Jun-12. Thu 2045 -1408 -408 592 1592 -2308 -1308 -308 69221-Jun-12. Thu 1603 -1290 -290 710 1710 -2190 -1190 -190 81027-Jun-12. Wed 1603 -1520 -520 480 1480 -2420 -1420 -420 58002-Jul-12. Mon 1518 -1450 -450 550 1550 -2350 -1350 -350 65009-Jul-12. Mon 925 -1713 -713 287 1287 -2613 -1613 -613 38718-Jul-12. Wed 765 -1033 -33 967 1967 -1933 -933 67 106723-Jul-12. Mon 765 -185 815 1815 2815 -1085 -85 915 191530-Jul-12. Mon 1714 -942 58 1058 2058 -1842 -842 158 1158

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What has been done

• Signed power purchase agreements (PPA’s) with the two municipalities to secure baseload generation.

• Secured available non-Eskom generation from customer base on a short term basis.

• Signed power buyback agreements, where we were able to remove base demand off the system, while some were deferred to the winter period.

• Obtained voluntary co-operation over peak periods from large customers (at least 400MW)

• Additional DMP has been obtained and non Eskom peaking plant is being finalised

• Demand Response Aggregator Pilot Program (DRAPP) has been initiated and an additional 500 MW of demand response is expected by winter

• Identified possible cross border generation and engagements are currently taking place.

Summing up • South Africa’s power system will be tight for the next few years: the next two years

are critical.

• Summer is maintenance season in Eskom. System is being run at higher levels of risk to tackle backlog and keep up with maintenance while at the same time meeting demand.

• Strategy of shifting maintenance outages can no longer be sustained.

• We need to save 10% of our current energy demand and remove 3000MW from our demand to ensure that the power system can be operated in a stable mode and that adequate maintenance is done on the generation fleet to provide safe and sustainable performance.

Thank You