system view of climate change and water resources...
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13th International Riversymposium NHR ISince 1935
System view of Climate Change and Water resources management in a small
i b iriver basin
WANG Xiaojun, ZHANG Jianyun, LIU Jiufu
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
October, 2010, Perth
NHR ISince 193513th International Riversymposium
Outlines
1. Water Resource challenges
2. System view for water management2. System view for water management
3. Case study: Tuwei River 3. Case study: Tuwei River
4. Conclusions and Discussion 4. Conclusions and Discussion
1. Water Resource challenges NHR ISince 1935
Basic Natural Resources and Economic Resources
Controlling Factor of Eco-Environment
K S t d S f d f S iKey Support and Safeguard of Socio-Economic Development
Food, Petroleum and Water constitute three major t t istrategic resources.
NHR ISince 19351. Water Resource challenges
Managing floods, solving water shortage and i i i limproving water environment are long-term challenges.
Water ShortageWater Shortage
Demand
Supply
NHR ISince 19351. Water Resource challenges
0. 6
0. 4
Factors influence demand0. 4
0. 2
0
(IPCC,2001)
-0. 2
-0. 4
-0. 6 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Climate change
6.4
1
( IPCC AR4, 2007 )
.1
NHR ISince 19351. Water Resource challenges
Water supply as a crucial factor for survival and economic de elopment so pro iding adeq ate atereconomic development, so providing adequate water supply is a serious problem for governments throughout the world .
Lesotho Highlands Water Project in SA National Water Carrier in Israel
NHR ISince 19351. Water Resource challenges
Each of them seemed to have solved problem for a period of time WSM has been benefited lotsfor a period of time, WSM has been benefited lots of the areas around world tremendously during the 20th Century.
This supply driven approach seem more andThis supply driven approach seem more and more complex today.
NHR ISince 19351. Water Resource challenges
Continuing to expand infrastructure and develop new water sources has become increasingly expensive;
Development projects (dams and diversions) destroy aquatic and land habitat;
WSM is ultimately unsustainable, both economically and environmentally .y
Great Man Made River in Libya Drought in Austria
NHR ISince 193513th International Riversymposium
Outlines
1. Water Resource challenges1. Water Resource challenges
2. System view for water management2. System view for water management
3. Case study: Tuwei River 3. Case study: Tuwei River
4. Conclusions and Discussion 4. Conclusions and Discussion
PrecipitationEvaporation
ReservoirSurface water
Soil water
GroundwaterDomestic water demandDomestic water demand
Transpiration Water supplyWater supply
I d t t d dI d t t d d
Groundwater
Industry water demandIndustry water demand
water consumptionwater consumption
EvaporationSewageSewage
water consumptionwater consumptionwater consumptionwater consumption
Ecological Ecological water water d dd d
SewageSewageGroundwaterGroundwater
Groundwater abstractionGroundwater abstraction
Runoff demanddemandRainwater Rainwater harvestingharvesting
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
Overall conceptual diagrams for Water resources planning and management
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
Domestic Water DemandDomestic Water Demand+
+Production Water Demand
Total Water Demand+Economic Development+
+-
-
Water Price+
Ecology Water Demand+
Water Shortage RateWater Supply-
+
Causal Loop Diagram of the basic model for TuweiSD
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
Flow diagrams for t
UP
RP
UR
QU
UDWD
QUE
UEWD
<Time>
<Time>
TQU
TPCHP
CRP
TQUETUR
TE GTEGRTE
PE GPE<Time>MEPE
PMEPE
ET SHNQM
NQWNQR
KCM
KCW
KCR
QM
QCDWD
water resources management in Tuwei River
RDWD
DWD
RWSGRWS
GRRWS
CRMAMWD
BFPUWD
NR
QRTime
TQR
MACMA
GPE
GRPEWEPE
REPE
PREPE
PWEPEQW
QRI
WACWA WWD
RCCDWD
River
GWS
DWDDWS GDWS
GRDWS
CRRA
IRWDRWD
PWS GPWS
GRPWSSWS
EWD
IEWD
QVFWD
RACRA
<Time>
VFACVFA
TQVFWD
TQFOWD
CRWA
TDWD
QCIWD
CIWD
TWS GGWS
GRGWSCRVFA
VFWD
OWS GOWS
CRFOA
QFOWD
FOWDQGWDAWD
TWD
DW
<Time>FOA
CFOA
TQFOWD
TQGWD
GACGA
<Time>
TWTWT
TIIWD
CRBAA
BAWD
AHWD
GROWS
FAFWD
GWD
PWD
WSR
DFA
GDFA
GRDFA
OEWD
TW
QBAWD
TQSAWD
<Time>
TQGWDCRGA
BAACBAA
TQBAWDQSAWDSAA QDFWD
DFWD
<Time>
ENP
ERPREP
WP
S
CRSAA SAWD
GRFIPA
FIWDTQFIWD
IO
IWD
P
CDCMCP
IW
TQSAWDCSAA
QFIWDFIPA
GFIPA
GDP QTIWDTPIOPIO
TQDFWD
T
GRGDP
CO
T
TIOQIWD
TIWDCDCM
CWT
GR1GDP
GGDP <Time>
TQIWD
TPIT
PIT
PIO
GRWI WIGWI
<Time>
0t t
TL e v e ls R a te s d t= ∫
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
TuweiSD Includes 139 parameters
Three major subsystems
Strategic planning period ranges from 1980 to 2030Strategic planning period ranges from 1980 to 2030
Developed within Vensim Personal Learning
Edition (PLE)
Boundary is the total administrative area of Yulin
itcity.
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
UR QUE<Time>TUR
UP
UR
UEWD
<Time>
TPCHP
TQUE
TUR
1RP
QU
UDWDQR
<Time>
TQUCRP
TQR
1
RDWD
E t l E i t b t P l ti thExternal Environment subsystem –Population growth
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
IO
GDPGGDP
TPITTPIO
GWI
TIO QIWD
IWD
GR1GDP<Time>
PIO1
GRGDPTIWD
TQIWDQTIWD
PIT
WSR
External Environment subsystem –Economic development
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
REPE PREPESH NQR
KCRQRI
TEGTE
CRTE
PE GPEMEPE
PMEPE
ET
SH
NQM
NQR
QM<Time> <Time>
1
NR
CRTEGRPE
WEPEPWEPEKCM
KCW
QW
RCCDWD
QCIWD
CIWD
1
PUWD
NQWQW
QCDWD
CIWD
EWDBFPUWDTDWDEWD
E t l E i t b t Cli t hExternal Environment subsystem –Climate change
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
MWD RWD
QR
MACMA
QW QM QRI
RA
CRA CRRA
<Time>
UPRP
QUUDWD
RDWD
DWD
CRMA
IRWD
UEWD
<Time>TQVFWD
CRWA
WACWA
WWD
QCDWDCDWD
CRRA
CRVFAVFWD
QFOWD
DFAGDFA GRDFA
QUEOEWD
QVFWD
<Time>
VFACVFA
FOACFOA
TQFOWD
DFWD<Time>
TDWD
FAFWD
CRFOAFOWD
QGWDPWD
AWD EWD
TWD
IEWD
BF
PUWD
DWCFOA
TQGWD
GACGA
QDFWD TQDFWDTDWD
WP
1
CRBAA
BAWD
AHWD
GWD
TIO
IWD
TIWDWSR
TW
IWQBAWD<Time>
CRGA
BAACBAA
TQBAWD CIWD
TIIWD
CRSAA SAWD
FIWD
TQFIWDIO
QIWDIWD
TQSAWD
QSAWDSAACSAA
QFIWD
FIPAGFIPA
GRFIPA
Water Demand subsystem
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
DWS GDWS
GRDWS
RWSGRWS
TWS
GRRWS PWS GPWS
GRPWS
SWS
TWTGWS 1
GRPWS
OWS
<Time>
TWTWT
GRGWS
GGWS
OWS GOWS
GROWS
W S l b
REPWSR P ENP
Water Supply subsystem
NHR ISince 1935
2. System view for water management
TWD
TWS
REP
WP
ENPERP
REP
SP
TW
1
CO
T
CD
CM
CP
CWT<Time>
GRWI WIGWI
<GDP>
Water price subsystem
NHR ISince 193513th International Riversymposium
Outlines
1. Water Resource challenges1. Water Resource challenges
2. System view for water management2. System view for water management
3. Case study: Tuwei River 3. Case study: Tuwei River
4. Conclusions and Discussion 4. Conclusions and Discussion
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
Latitude: 38Latitude: 38°°10′10′~~3939°°10′N10′NLatitude: 38Latitude: 38 10′10′~~3939 10′N 10′N
Longitude: 109Longitude: 109°°45′45′~~110110°°35′ E 35′ E
Sketch map of the Study areaDrainage area :3,294 kmDrainage area :3,294 km2
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
60000
50000
60000
30000
40000
20000
30000
0
10000
01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Moving average curves of annual runoff at Gaojiachuan station
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
5000
4000
2000
3000
1000
2000
0
January March May July NovemberSeptemberJanuary y J y Sep e be
Runoff at Gaojiachuan station
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
Simulated values and actual value of the main variables
2000 2005
Simulated values and actual value of the main variables
Variables
2000 2005
Actual Simulated Relative Actual Simulated Relative
value value error value value error
Total P l ti 22.53 21.33 -5.33 23.13 23.12 -0.04Population 22.53 21.33 5.33 23.13 23.12 0.04
Urban Population 1.77 1.69 -4.52 2.21 2.22 0.45 p
Surface Water S l
2666 2476 -7.13 2706 2558 -5.47 Supply
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
12 0
12. 5
13. 0
11 0
11. 5
12. 0
B1 Scenario
10. 0
10. 5
11. 0 B1 Scenario
A2 Scenario
9. 0
9. 5
10. 0A1B Scenario
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
T t h i th f t f T i RiTemperature changes in the future of Tuwei River
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
600
500
600
300
400B1 Scenario
200
300A2 Scenario
A1B S i
0
100A1B Scenario
P i it ti h i th f t f T i Ri
01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Precipitation changes in the future of Tuwei River
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
600000 0.9
400000
500000
nt( ¥
)
0 6
0.7
0.8
ate
GDP development
Water shortage rate
300000
400000
deve
lopm
en
0.4
0.5
0.6
r sho
rtage
ra
100000
200000
GD
P d
0.1
0.2
0.3
Wat
er
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
0
0.1
Economic development and water shortage rate of the
Year
p gTuwei River under B1 scenario
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
1600018000
20000
4 m3 )
0.7
0.8
0.9
e
Total water supply
Water shortage rate
10000
1200014000
er su
pply
(104
0.4
0.5
0.6
shor
tage
rat
20004000
60008000
Tota
l wat
e
0 1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Wat
er s
0
2000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
0
0.1
W h d diff i
Year
Water shortage rate under different scenario
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
45000 Water demand management under B1 scenario
35000
40000
104 m
3 )
Water demand management under A1B scenario
Water demand management under A2 scenario
20000
25000
30000
ter d
eman
d( Water supply management under B1 scenario
Water supply management under A1B scenario
5000
10000
15000
Tota
l wat Water supply management under A2 scenario
0
5000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
W d d d diff i
Year
Water demand under different management strategies
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
As to Tuwei River, the main objectives are: I h (2005 2010) h h iIn short-term(2005-2010), through necessary economic
measures to promote efficient use of water resources in order to achieve the maximization of economic benefits from minimize water resource;
In long-term(2010-2020), WDM programme will pay more attention to quality requirements, and quality become the main target, through optimization between economic and ecology, and will realize a balance between the competing needs and desires of human social and economic systems and the integrity of aquatic ecosystems, and finally achieve the human-water harmony in Tuwei River.
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
LegislationLegislation is the guarantee for WDM programme, and all
the policies, regulations should be consistent with legislation
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
Metering and leakages reductionW t t i i it f th f i i iWater metering, as a prerequisite for the use of pricing is essential for a successful WDM programme, and it aims at i i i i i d h bimproving existing structures in order to have a better control on water demand.
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
Wastewater reuseWastewater reuse contributes to WDM mainly in enhances the efficiency of a water supply system by supplying reused water to water users which otherwise would have use fresh water form the distribution system and lot of cases demonstrate thatform the distribution system, and lot of cases demonstrate that reuse and recycling of wastewater can make a significant contribution to WDM.
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
Water Allocation between SectorsAs the socio-economic system has self-adapting functions, water scarce regions will adjust their socio-economic structures to save water, this means re-allocation of water from sectors with lower added value to sectors with a higherfrom sectors with lower added value to sectors with a higher added value. Such re-allocation will obviously be advantageous to society as a whole.g y
IndustryInvestment forInvestment forInvestment for Investment for save irrigation save irrigation
water usewater use
IrrigationRe-allocation between
sectors
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
Economic methodsEconomic methods can be implemented for demand reduction,Economic methods can be implemented for demand reduction, economic methods include pricing mechanisms, incentives and penalties. Water price is a fundamental economic tool to influence water demand.
1400 3.00Wat er demand
800
1000
1200
nd(
m3 )
2.00
2.50
e(¥
/m3 )Wat er pr i ce
400
600
800
Wat
er d
eman
0 50
1.00
1.50
Wat
er p
rice
0
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
W
0.00
0.50
Year
Water price and water demand in Yulin city
NHR ISince 19353. Case study: Tuwei River3. Case study: Tuwei River
Public awarenessThrough television, radio, newspapers, internet and other
media to give up water is inexhaustible resources misconceptions d bli h i li i d h i ifiand establish water resources is limited, propagate the significance
of sustainable utilization of water resources.
NHR ISince 193513th International Riversymposium
Outlines
1. Water Resource challenges1. Water Resource challenges
2. System view for water management2. System view for water management
3. Case study: Tuwei River 3. Case study: Tuwei River
4. Conclusions and Discussion
4 Conclusions and discussion4 Conclusions and discussion NHR ISince 1935
Traditional way for water management ultimatelyunsustainable for both economic and environmentalunsustainable for both economic and environmentalreasons.
System Dynamics (SD) provides a feedback-oriented modelling framework for learning andg gcommunicating about the inherent complexity of water
I h b id l li d imanagement. It has been widely applied in manyenvironmental problems, including water management .p g g
4 Conclusions and discussion4 Conclusions and discussion NHR ISince 1935
Simulation results show that the current management regimeSimulation results show that the current management regime
cannot maintain the socio-economic and ecological sustainability
in the region. Although additional infrastructure can cover the
water deficit in the short period, it cannot cope with thep , p
increasing irrigation and domestic requirements. Instead, results
indicate that a portfolio of demand management instruments
and conservation measures is the most sustainable strategy forgy
maintaining the economic and ecological status of the region
under the changing climate.
Th k !Thank you!yDr WANG XiaojunDr WANG Xiaojun
Tel: 86-13645153003Tel: 86 13645153003
Fax: 86-025-85828555Fax: 86 025 85828555
E-mail: [email protected]@y