systemic risk and the u.s. insurance sector mary a. weiss, ph.d. conference en finance et assurance...
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Systemic Risk and the U.S. Insurance Sector
Mary A. Weiss, Ph.D.Conference en Finance et Assurance
du Fonds Conrad-LeblancLaval University
April 1, 2011
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Introduction
Focus on core activities of U.S. insurers
Consider interrelationships between U.S. licensed insurers and reinsurance worldwide
Monolines not considered
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Questions to Answer
What is systemic risk?
Why do we care about systemic risk?
What factors are associated with systemic risk?
Are insurers systemically risky?
Does reinsurance contribute to systemic risk in insurance?
Are any insurers “too big to fail” (TBTF)?
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Role of Insurance in Systemic Risk
Susceptible to systemic risk
VS.
Instigator of systemic risk
Has regulation implications
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What is systemic risk?
The risk that an event will trigger a loss of economic value or confidence in a substantial segment of the financial system serious enough to have significant adverse effects on the real economy. Group of 10 (2001)
Systemic financial risk involvesa system-wide financial crisis…accompanied by a sharp decline in asset values and economic activityThe spread of instability throughout the financial system
(contagion)Sufficient to affect the real economy World Economic Forum (2008)
Systemic risk is exposure to extreme correlations
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What is Systemic Risk II
Two key ideas in definition:1. Contagious loss of value or loss of confidence
that spreads through financial system2. Event sufficiently serous to have significant
adverse impact on economic activity
Examples: Japanese asset collapse of 1990s, Asian financial crisis of 1997, Russian default of 1998 and fall of Long-term Capital Management.
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Where does systemic risk come from? I
Systemic risk may arise from interconnectedness among financial institutions that cascades throughout the financial system like a domino effect
“Too big to fail” (TBTF)
too interconnected to fail
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Where does systemic risk come from? II
Systemic risk may arise from a significant common shock to which many firms have a large exposure
In this crisis, bursting of housing price bubble
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Why do we care about systemic risk?
•Financial crisisprices of risky assets drop sharplyprices of safe assets increase (flight to quality)asset price volatility increasesliquidity dries up (raising bid-ask spread & price impact)Financial institutions become financially distressedCredit markets dry up, economic activity depressed
•Financial systemic risk: Financial crisis in which many institutions become financially distressed, with a potential impact on real economic activity
Financial distress does not mean systemic risk!
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What are the factors associated with systemic risk? I
Distinguish between primary indicators of systemic risk and factors contributing to the development of systemic risk (contributing factors)
Primary factors (Financial Stability Board)– Size– Lack of substitutability– Interconnectedness
Interactions among the factors
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What are the factors associated with systemic risk? II
• Contributing Factors–Leverage–Liquidity Risks and Maturity Mismatches–Complexity–Regulation
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Primary Factor -- Size
• Size and TBTF (Continental Illinois)
• Size may be associated with large spillover effects (e.g., interbank activities)
• Size can be measured– Assets– Equity– Proportion of GDP
But …size does not always capture impact!(AIG Financial Products Division!)
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Size and Insurance I
Macroeconomic role of insurance industry:
World premiums in 2009 -- $4.1 trillionor 7% of world GDP
Contribution to GDP is value-added2 to 3% of world GDPslight upward trend
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Total Assets: US Banks and Insurers
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
Ass
ets
($B
illio
ns)
Banks Life Insurers PC Insurers
Assets: Banks $14 trillion, insurers $5.8 trillion.
Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds accounts.
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Size and Insurance II
Size of industry as source of credit --
important but not leading source
Assets as % of total outstanding debt:
Life-health: 5.9%
Property-casualty: 1.7%
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Insurance Companies: Share of Total Assets
0% 5% 10% 15%
Corporate Bonds
Municipal Bonds
Agency & GSE Bonds
Treasury Securities
Corporate Equities
%P&L %Life
Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Accounts.
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Insurance and Size III
• Even if important in securities market, does not necessarily mean systemic
• In an insurer insolvency– Cash needed when losses paid– Losses paid years in the future– Insurers have large amount of assets because
premiums prefunded
• Conclusion: Fire sales of insurers’ assets not usually required
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Primary Factor – Lack of Substitutability I
Lack of substitutability defined in terms of:
1.extent to which other institutions or financial system can provide same services as failed institution
2. product must be of critical importance for functioning of other institutions or financial system
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Primary Factor – Lack of Substitutability II
Quantitative indicators of substitutability:
Concentration (e.g., market share)
Ease of entry or barriers to entry
if barriers exist, new entrants prevented from providing vital product or financial service
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Lack of Substitutability and Insurance I
Concentration and Insurance Groups
top 4 (10) nonlife groups – 29 (50)%
top 4 (10) life groups – 24 (45)%
Nationally significant groups reviewed every quarter plus FAWG
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Lack of Substitutability and Insurance II
Concentration and Insurance (Cont’d)But …
Legal entity basisRing-fencing
Company concentrationtop 4 insurers – 16-18%top 10 insurers – 28-31%
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Lack of Substitutability and Insurance III
Do insurance products have substitutes?
Life Insurance
mostly asset accumulation products rather
than mortality/longevity risk bearing
many non-insurance substitutes for asset accumulation and investing products
many insurers available to fill coverage gaps by insolvency of one or few firms
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Lack of Substitutability and Insurance IV
Do insurance products have substitutes? (Cont’d)
Property-casualty
provide mainly risk management and risk bearing
no substitute for some individual products (e.g., auto)
maybe no substitute for small commercial customers
But, many insurers available to fill gap of one or few insurers
large corporate buyers have substitutes
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Lack of Substitutability and Insurance V
Insurability and Uninsurability
Periodic shortages of some types of insurance
Not systemic
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Primary Factor -- Interconnectedness
Extent to which financial distress at one or a few institutions increases the probability of financial distress at other institutions due to
network of financial claimsother interrelationships among institutions
Example – Bank run
Common shock usually needed
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Interconnectedness and Insurance I
Do U.S. insurers invest heavily in financial institutions?
Banks:5.6% -- Corporate and foreign bonds1% -- corporate equities
Securities firms:1.6% -- Corporate and foreign bonds1% -- Corporate equities
Conclusion: Problem in financial sector such as banking should not affect insurers’ assets significantly
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Interconnectedness and Insurance II
Do firms in financial sector rely heavily on insurance funding?
Life insurers hold 9.4% of outstanding borrowed money for banks and 14.1% of outstanding bonds of securities firms
But these account for only 10% of funding for banks and securities firms
So, no spillover effect to other financial institutions
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P/C Impairment: Triggering Events
Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2008 Impairment Review, Special Report, Apr. 6, 2009.
Deficient loss reserves,
inadequate pricing, and rapid growth
are the leading triggers. Investment
& catastrophe losses play a much
smaller role.
Reinsurance Failure3.7%
Rapid Growth14.3%
Misc.9.1%
Affiliate Impairment
7.9%
Sig. Change in Business
4.2%
Deficient Loss
Reserves/In-adequate Pricing38.1%
Investment Problems
7.0%
Alleged Fraud8.1%
Catastrophe Losses7.6%
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L-H Impairments: Triggering Events
Source: A.M. Best: 2009 U.S. Life/Health – 1976-2008 Impairment Review, Special Report, May 25, 2009.
Inadequate pricing, affiliate problems, rapid
growth, and investments are
primary causes of L/H insolvencies.
Affiliate Problems
19.3%
Sig. Change in Business
4.6%
Misc8.6%
Reins Failure2.0%
Inadequate Pricing27.7%Alleged Fraud
8.6%
Rapid Growth14.7%
Investment Problems
14.5%
Life insurers more susceptible to affiliate problems.
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Bank and Insurer Failure Rates
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Interconnectedness and Reinsurance I
Reinsurance is intra-industry activity
2006 report of Group of 30– reinsurance not systemic
But….more mergers & acquisitionsretrocessions and interconnectedness
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Interconnectedness and Reinsurance II
Affiliate and non-affiliate reinsurance –affiliate problems associated with insolvenciesconsider both
Reinsurance cessions consideredcounterparty riskceding reinsurer holds premiums (usually)
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Interconnectedness and Reinsurance III
Measures of reins. interconnectedness:
Reinsurance premiums ceded
Insurance in force ceded (life)
Reinsurance recoverables
Write-down of liabilities:
reserve credit taken (life)
net amount recoverable from reins (p-c)
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Interconnectedness and Reinsurance IV
Reinsurance premiums cededp-c ceded DPW of 86.6% surplus (most
affiliate)life ceded DPW of 40% surplus
Insurance in force ceded (life)averages 49% of surplus
Reinsurance recoverables25% p-c this is more than 40% surplus25% life this is more than 100% surplus
Write-down of liabilities:reserve credit taken (life)
130% of surplus (57% non-affiliate)net amount recoverable from reins.
160% of surplus (33% non-affiliate)
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Interconnectedness and Reinsurance V
Reins. and Interconnectedness Conclusion:
Property-casualty insurers more exposed to counterparty risk
Unlikely that reinsurance problems would spill over to banking and securities industries – not sufficiently interconnected in core activities.
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Interconnectedness and Non-insurance activities
Insurers’ non-core activities can give rise to systemic risk (e.g., Geneva Report (2010)
Hard to get information about this
Consider credit default swaps (CDS)Insurers held $492B in 2007
and $330B in 2009
Examples of insurers involved: Allianz, AXA, Generali, Swiss Re, Munich Re, Hannover Re
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Conclusion: Insurance and Primary Factors
Insurers not sufficiently large or interconnected with other firms to pose systemic risk in core activities
Lack of substitutability for some individual insurance and commercial insurance for small buyers, but many insurers available to fill coverage gap from insolvencies.
Ample substitutes for life investment products and commercial insurance for large corporations
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Contributing Factors
Recall:1. Leverage2. Liquidity risk and maturity
mismatches3. Complexity4. Government policy and regulation
Analysis of contributing factors mainly relates to their creation of vulnerability to intra-sector crises for insurers (i.e., core activities not systemic)
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Contributing Factor: Leverage
Leverage: Debt vs Equity
But – options, buying on margin, some
financial instruments
Higher leverage means less equity to absorb shocks, less ability to withstand market volatility
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Equity Capital-to-Assets Ratios
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
Banks Life Insurers PC Insurers
Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds accounts, American Council of Life Insurance.
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Leverage and Insurance
Leverage and Insurance Conclusion:
Property-casualty insurers hold more capital than life insurers or banks.
Life insurers probably excessively leveragedespecially considering their exposure to mortgage-backed securities and privately placed bonds.
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Contributing Factor – Liquidity Risk and Asset-Liability Maturity Mismatches
Liquidity risk associated with holding illiquid assets
Makes institution vulnerable if firm has trouble obtaining needed funding(risk is that illiquid assets mustbe liquidated an inopportune time)
Liquidity risks worse by asset-liability mismatch.
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Liquidity Risk and Asset-Liability Maturity Mismatches and Insurance I
Asset and liability maturities tend to be long-term for insurers (compare banks)
Property-casualty liabilities not “puttable”
must experience loss and file claim
Most life insurance long-term and not puttable
Exceptions: cash value life insurance and some types of variable annuities
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Liquidity Risk and Asset-Liability Maturity Mismatches and Insurance II
Danger signals for life insurance industry-- mortgage-backed securities represent 167.2% surplus (34.5% surplus for property-casualty)-- private placements represent 171.5% of surplus
(7.2% surplus for property-casualty)
But, significant cash from operations-- 46.1% of surplus-- 26.3% benefit payments
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Contributing Factor: Complexity
Dimensions of complexity:
1. Complexity of organization
(group structure and subs)
2. Geographical complexity
(multinationals)
3. Product complexity (especially new and complex financial products)
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Complexity and Insurance
AIG poster child for complexity
complicated group structure
geographically dispersed
complex, new financial products
Life insurance more complex than property-casualty insurance
Large, multinational firms operating today in industry
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Contributing Factor: Government Policy and Regulation
FDIC insurance and market discipline
Underpricing of FDIC insurance and moral hazard
AIG Financial Products and regulation
Regulation can exacerbate a crisis
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Government Policy and Regulation and Insurance
Some moral hazard in operation of guaranty funds
risk premiums not risk-based
But, guaranty fund limits lead to more market discipline in insurance than banking
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Conclusion: Contributing Factors I
Life Insurancehigher leveragehigher liquidity riskmore complex (products with embedded options)
Only contributing factor not a major problem for life insurers is maturity risk.
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Property-casualty insurancelower leverageless liquidity risklow to moderate product complexityreinsurance exposure?
But – subject to catastrophes
Conclusion: Contributing Factors II
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Non-core Activities
Types of non-core activitiesderivatives tradingover-leveraging of non-core subsbank-like operations
asset lendingasset management
Better group supervision neededkey is to design a regulatory system that encompasses core and non-core activities of conglomerates
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Conclusion
Core activities of insurers do not
create systemic risk
Non-core activities can be source
of systemic risk
Most non-core activities beyond the purview of insurance regulation and banking
Regulation of groups needs to be vastly improved.
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Thank You!