t he e ffects of c limate c hange on a griculture j amie f letcher econ331 m arch 29, 2010 1
TRANSCRIPT
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THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE
JAMIE FLETCHERECON331
MARCH 29, 2010
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THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE
• Adaptation
• International Trade
• Impact on Developing vs. Industrial Countries
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CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
• Increased Global Temperatures
• Increased Plant Fertilization
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CO2 ENRICHMENT
Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001)
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INCREASED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AND CROP YIELDS
• Regional Variation
• Colder Countries Benefit
• Crop Yields Decrease in Temperate Areas
• In Tropics, Agricultural Output Will Decrease
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ADAPTATION
• Adaptation can mitigate the effects of climate change
• Adaptation Capacity is Lower in Developing Countries
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ADAPTATION
Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001)
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INTERNATIONAL TRADE
• Bathtub Model for International Agricultural Markets
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SWOPSIM MODEL
• A Partial Equilibrium Model That Is Used by Riley and Hohmann to Test The Sensitivity of Agriculture to Yield Losses in Major Grain Producing Regions
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EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE
• Interregional adjustments in production and consumption
• Global Market Changes (Prices)
• Impact of Developing Countries
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CONCLUSION
• Adaptation
• International Trade
• Impact on Developing vs. Industrial Countries
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SOURCES
• William R. Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country (2007)
• John Reilly and Neil Hohmann, “Climate Change and Agriculture The Role of International Trade” (1993)
• Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001)