t. o’donnell, ph.d. | [email protected] | tomod.com primary energy resources opening plenary session...
TRANSCRIPT
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com
Primary Energy ResourcesOpening Plenary Session
Tom O’Donnell, Ph.D.The New School University, NYC
Universidad Central de Venezuela-CENDES, Caracas
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 2IPCC 2007
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 3T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 3IPCC 2007
2004
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 4IPCC 2007
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 5IPCC 2007
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 6T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 6
Uranium
Uranium w/ Breeding
Coal
Gas
Conventional Oil
IPCC 2007
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 7
Uranium
Coal
Gas
Conventional Oil
Solar WindGeothermalBiomassHydro
IPCC 2007
Two Categories of Primary Energy:
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 9T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 9
CHP
Electricity
Hydrogen Biofuels
IPCC 2007
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 10T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 10IPCC 2007
Two Categories of Primary Energy:
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 11T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 11
Part I. Global Energy System
Two Categories of Primary Energy:
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 12
Global Energy System: - 2004Source: 4th IPCC, from IEA 2006
Two Categories of Primary Energy:
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 13
Global Energy System: - 2030Source: IPCC from IEA 2006
• Transport - 95% oil
• Electricity - Diversified
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 14
Observation:
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com
15
ProjectionsHistory
World Primary Energy Demand
Source: IEA WEA reference scenario 2006
Oil #1
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 16
- Global Warming- Depletion?- Geo Location?- Traffic Congestion?- Alternatives?
And Oil Has Issues:
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 17Jan 1, 2005
Petroleum Reserves
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 18Jan 1, 2005
Petroleum Reserves
60% Persian
Gulf
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Bil
lio
n g
allo
ns
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per
cen
t
Ethanol Share of Corn Production
U.S. Corn Ethanol
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Bil
lio
n g
allo
ns
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per
cen
t
Ethanol Share of Corn Production
10 days of oil = 27%
corn
U.S. Corn Ethanol
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 21
Oil Consumption per capita
EIA 2003
Gallons per day
per capita
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 22
Ethanol
Oil Consumption per capita
Gallons per day
per capita
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 23
Reserves More Uncertain
Potential liquid hydrocarbon production (Gbbl)
Cost $/barrel
Oil & Substitutes
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 24
Reserves More Uncertain
Potential liquid hydrocarbon production (Gbbl)
Cost $/barrel
Oil & Substitutes
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 25
Reserves More Uncertain
Potential liquid hydrocarbon production (Gbbl)
Oil & Substitutes
Hours Delay per
peak traveler
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 26
City Size
Congestion U.S. Cities – 20 Yrs.
2002
1992
1982
Federal Highway Administration
Oil Solution:
Not Alternative Fuels
T. O’Donnell, Ph.D. | [email protected] | TomOD.com 27
ButAlternative Modes