t5-o16 introduction to life cycle cost analysis for ims...

Introduction to Life Cycle Cost Analysis for IMS Stations (Presentation to 5th O&M Workshop 2015)

Daniel Foster Logistics Technician [email protected] Logistics Support Unit (LSU) Monitoring Facilities Support (MFS) Section International Monitoring System (IMS) Division Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization With a reply from:

John Sharp TFD Group President [email protected]

T5-O16

Introduction

OPM-5 Presentation T5-O16 Page 3 IMS/MFS/LS

Life Cycle Costs (LCC) Analysis is one of several components

of the Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) system for the

International Monitoring System (IMS).

The ILS system is intended to ensure sustainment of certified

IMS facilities at optimal cost (protecting the investment already

made).

Ref.: PTS Information Paper 1163 (Integrated Logistics Support For The International Monitoring System)

Sustainment of the IMS network presents a formidable

challenge:

• Size of network, many environments – 337 facilities in 89 states

• Very high Data Availability (DA) requirements – Equivalent to only a few days downtime per year at each station

What Are Life Cycle Costs?

Life Cycle Cost refers to all costs over the life of a piece of

equipment or a system, from initial design, through its

operational life and ultimate disposal (i.e. the total cost of

ownership ‘from cradle to grave’).

Applies to equipment, systems, technologies...

and IMS stations (including infrastructure).

OPM-5 Presentation T5-O16 Page 4 IMS/MFS/LS

Life Cycle

Life Cycle is made up of several stages:

• Conception / Design /

• Purchase / Installation

• Operations / Support

• Disposal / Replacement

Challenges:

• Whole life cycle cost is largely determined

(committed) at the initial design stage

• IMS network to operate in perpetuity

IMS/MFS/LS Page 5 OPM-5 Presentation T5-O16

Conception / Design

Purchase / Installation

Operations / Support

Disposal / Replacement

Examples of Life Cycle Expenditure

Different life stages may be funded from different budgets:

Capital Investment Funds (CIF):

– Installation

– Equipment Replacement

– Station Improvement (to maintain availability and protect the investment)

– Recapitalization

General Funds (GF):

– Station Operation

– Equipment Support / Planned Maintenance

– Engineering Support


Life Cycle Costs (Annual)

Typical shape of capital investment and O&M costs per year over system life:

IMS/MFS/LS

Conception / Design


Operations / Support Disposal /

Replacement

Page 7 OPM-5 Presentation T5-O16

Capital Costs

O&M Costs

Sum LCC

Replacement Costs

Life Cycle Costs (Cumulative)

Same data as cumulative LCC, plus typical committed costs at various life stages:


Capital Costs

O&M Costs

Sum LCC

Replacement Costs

Cumulative LCC

Committed Costs

Conception / Design


Operations / Support Disposal /

Replacement

Life costs determined

by earlier decisions

Benefits of LCC Analysis

Identifying the whole life cost of a system enables:

• Informed calculation of budget and resources required to support

financial planning

• Optimization of use of resources

(e.g. budget, manpower, etc.)

• Comparison of alternative solutions

(e.g. cost/benefit of choosing particular parts or particular maintenance policies)

• Documented justification for support decisions

In short, LCC Analysis supports the sustainment of certified IMS facilities at

optimal cost (protecting the investment already made).


Introducing MAAP®

Life Cycle Costs and recapitalization forecasts are currently estimated

using arithmetic with assumptions and experience.

We are now preparing to introduce additional methods to analyse Life

Cycle Costs Analysis, using a combination of specialized commercial

software and other data analysis and modelling tools and techniques.

Our primary LCC software tool is MAAP®, a proprietary analytical tool

developed by TFD Group. MAAP shares a common database (and a

similar user interface) with another TFD tool, VMetric®, which we are

already using for spares optimization modelling.

This relationship with an established software tool will help with the

introduction of the new tool. Moreover, we can also utilize the extract,

transform and load (ETL) capability of our own Reference Database to build

initial models using DOTS data and/or existing VMetric models.


What Data Does MAAP® Need?

• MAAP is an activity-based analytical and decision support tool that

analyzes the capability and support requirements for complex systems

subject to dynamic operating profiles and in any number of locations.

• Each system has a ‘future history’ of events, including:

– Operating events

– Maintenance events

• Each event has a duration (time), and requires one or more resources,

such as:

– Parts

– Skills

– Tools

– Software; Facilities; Data; Energy

• The amount of data required will depend on the scale and precision

required by the question.


Please join with us and share your data!

MAAP® Events and Resources


Upgrade Event

Training Event 3

Operational Event 2

Hardware Component

Skills

Resource Use Resource Type

Resource ID

Number Units

% of Duration

Tools -

-

-

- -

TOC of item by Event Type, Place, Resource and Time

Resource Costs

Each maintenance requirement is described by a maintenance event

The cost of each event is a function of the resources it consumes

Data about resources are kept in

Resource Libraries 4

Parts

Books

Data

IETMS

Facilities

Shops

Maintenance Event 1

Type (PM/CM/Opn)

Frequency (by Hr, Msn,Yr)

Duration (: e.g. Mct)

Echelon (LOR constraint)

Information Costs

Energy

Logistics Support Analysis and Modelling

We will follow an established modelling method

(developed for optimized sparing models):

1. Understand and frame the modelling problem and scope – what is the question facing the decision maker?

2. Identify the outputs (data, reports) required to support the

decision maker

3. Identify, collect, prepare, and review the required input data

4. Load this data into the appropriate analysis / modelling tool

5. Run the model(s)!

6. Review the results, and refine the model if necessary

(calibration)

7. Produce a report of the results, in a useful format, as an

input for the decision maker


Some LSA Modelling Milestones

Infrastructure

• Reference Database developed to store modelling data (augments DOTS, supports ETL)

• Intermediate Database ETL (Extract, Transform & Load) function to rapidly build models

• Software installed on Virtual Machines with Remote Access

Data

• Key input data reviewed and rated for maturity and quality (with stakeholder feedback)

• Reliability reviewed for all equipment; MTBF updated in DOTS as applicable

Models

• Sparing models/results shared with station operators in Australia, Israel, Russian

Federation, US, …

• Sparing model created for specific Radionuclide Detector System equipment

• Draft ‘master’ sparing model created for the whole IMS network!

Community

• Develop modelling relationships with Station Operators


Challenges, and Lessons Learned

Challenges

• Trying to introduce something new

• Limited resources

• Access to data

– Various data sources (DOTS, other databases and spreadsheets, personal experience,

assumptions)

– DOTS depends on submission of timely, accurate and complete CCN, etc.

• Size and nature of the IMS Network

Lessons Learned

• Model in ‘bite-sized’ chunks

• Become more ‘user-focused’ (as a service provider)


Conclusion

The challenges we face, and the benefits of using Logistics

Support Analysis and Modelling, are not unique to the IMS!

Many of you will have similar issues, and some of you are

already working on Life Cycle Costs analysis.

Starting now with John Sharp, TFD Group President, who will

share some thoughts on our work together.


Please join with us to establish a community of practice,

and share any constructive feedback!

Contact us at [email protected]

[email protected]

Logistics Support Analysis The Route to Affordable Availability

John Sharp TFD Group President

Vienna 7 October 2015

CTBTO Operation and Maintenance Workshop

© Copyright 2001-2015 Systems Exchange, Inc., All Rights Reserved Worldwide

The MFS LSA Journey

Where have we got to: • PTS knew in advance the benefits of developing,

testing and costing systems support solutions using LSA models rather than intuitive judgement

• Learned modelling practice through initial narrow focus on spares inventory optimisation – Got good representation of IMS equipment breakdown

structure, sites and

– Understood data requirements (what is “good quality”) and how to make representative assumptions

• Has advanced capability for spares optimisation – best systems availability for least cost


The MFS LSA Journey

What lies ahead: • PTS must now raise its game

– Proper LCC is to Spares analysis like running is to walking

– Dealing with multiple resources – not just spares - the rewards are greater

• LCC is really “Supportability Analysis” – Cost is the medium of comparing different and complex

support solutions

• Smart modellers will iterate through developing ideas to get to a good balance of cost v performance

• But be logical and systematic – no “Duck Shooting”

• Record each model in the Modelling Log.


How can you help?

Anticipate MFS requests for data for LCC • Equipment Breakdown Structure

• Event data – Maintenance activity description

– Frequency, scheduled & unscheduled (MTBM)

– Duration

• Resources required for each Event – Skills breakdown

– Tools & test equipment (list and cost)

– Spares required (split repairable/consumable, cost)

– Facilities (air conditioned clean room etc, cost)

– Software (where relevant, cost)

– Energy (where significant - power and cost per unit)


Final Words?

• Whether or not advanced LSA models are used, data is the life blood of all analysis

• “Garbage in; garbage out” is a non-thinking statement by people who don’t understand modelling – A logically deduced assumption is not garbage

– Modelling with assumptions is proven to be better than not modelling at all

• An analyst is as much an artist as a technician – Who “paints an impression” of the world not a photographic

likeness – it only needs to be fit for purpose

– The ‘impression’ looks more lifelike as better data is available

• Tolerate and respond to analysts’ seemingly odd requests for data of all kinds; these are his ‘colours’

• Respond with sympathy and understanding

Thank you

OPM-5 Presentation T5-O16 IMS/MFS/LS Page 22

t5-o16 introduction to life cycle cost analysis for ims...

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