table 1. total energy supply, disposition, and price ... · total energy supply, disposition, and...

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2017 Supplemental Case 1

Table 1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, and prices

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050

High oil and gas resource

and technology

High resource, no Clean Power

Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Production Crude oil and lease condensate ................................... 18.27 27.77 27.62 35.10 35.09 35.66 35.82 Natural gas plant liquids ............................................... 4.78 7.21 7.18 8.22 8.25 8.49 8.57 Dry natural gas ............................................................. 27.49 38.64 38.70 49.47 49.43 54.58 55.20 Coal1 ............................................................................ 15.22 13.43 14.76 10.42 12.85 9.01 12.29 Nuclear / uranium2 ....................................................... 8.34 8.02 8.02 7.00 6.08 5.32 3.02 Conventional hydroelectric power ................................ 2.50 2.92 2.92 2.92 2.93 2.94 2.93 Biomass3 ...................................................................... 4.20 4.42 4.42 4.35 4.35 4.37 4.40 Other renewable energy4 ............................................. 3.03 5.50 5.33 6.15 5.85 6.80 6.09 Other5 ........................................................................... 0.92 1.04 1.04 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 Total ......................................................................... 84.76 108.95 110.00 124.49 125.69 128.03 129.17 Imports Crude oil ....................................................................... 17.50 13.37 13.52 9.46 9.54 9.06 8.70 Petroleum and other liquids6 ........................................ 4.18 4.63 4.64 3.98 3.90 3.30 3.28 Natural gas7 ................................................................. 3.02 1.49 1.53 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.18 Other imports8 .............................................................. 0.43 0.28 0.28 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16 Total ......................................................................... 25.13 19.78 19.97 14.73 14.75 13.70 13.32 Exports Petroleum and other liquids9 ........................................ 10.19 18.52 18.44 22.79 22.84 20.18 20.08 Natural gas10 ................................................................ 2.09 7.80 7.79 12.00 11.67 12.30 12.05 Coal .............................................................................. 1.48 1.63 1.72 2.03 2.03 2.18 2.21 Total ......................................................................... 13.76 27.95 27.95 36.82 36.55 34.66 34.34 Discrepancy11 ................................................................ -0.36 -0.01 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 Consumption Petroleum and other liquids12 ....................................... 36.88 37.15 37.21 36.49 36.45 38.88 38.85 Natural gas ................................................................... 28.62 32.02 32.13 38.13 38.45 42.98 43.85 Coal13 ........................................................................... 13.93 11.85 13.07 8.36 10.81 6.80 10.02 Nuclear / uranium2 ....................................................... 8.34 8.02 8.02 7.00 6.08 5.32 3.02 Conventional hydroelectric power ................................ 2.50 2.92 2.92 2.92 2.93 2.94 2.93 Biomass14 ..................................................................... 2.76 2.88 2.89 2.87 2.87 2.90 2.93 Other renewable energy4 ............................................. 3.03 5.50 5.33 6.15 5.85 6.80 6.09 Other15 ......................................................................... 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 Total ......................................................................... 96.50 100.77 102.01 102.36 103.87 107.06 108.13 Prices (2016 dollars per unit) Crude oil spot prices (dollars per barrel) Brent ......................................................................... 43 81 81 96 95 101 101 West Texas Intermediate .......................................... 43 74 74 88 87 91 90 Natural gas at Henry Hub (dollars per million Btu) ....... 2.42 3.44 3.50 3.40 3.37 3.33 3.44 Coal (dollars per ton) at the minemouth16 .................................................... 34.3 34.2 35.2 37.5 38.7 39.8 40.0 Coal (dollars per million Btu) at the minemouth16 .................................................... 1.70 1.71 1.76 1.83 1.90 1.91 1.97 Average end-use17 .................................................... 2.35 2.48 2.49 2.44 2.50 2.36 2.48 Average electricity (cents per kilowatthour) .................. 10.3 10.8 10.2 10.6 10.2 10.5 10.2


Table 1. Total energy supply, disposition, and price summary (continued) (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Prices (nominal dollars per unit) Crude oil spot prices (dollars per barrel) Brent ......................................................................... 43 97 97 158 156 206 204 West Texas Intermediate ......................................... 43 89 89 145 143 186 183 Natural gas at Henry Hub (dollars per million Btu) ...... 2.42 4.14 4.20 5.56 5.53 6.76 6.98 Coal (dollars per ton) at the minemouth16 ................................................... 34.3 41.2 42.3 61.5 63.5 80.9 81.3 Coal (dollars per million Btu) at the minemouth16 ................................................... 1.70 2.06 2.11 3.00 3.12 3.87 3.99 Average end-use17 ................................................... 2.35 2.98 2.98 3.99 4.10 4.79 5.04 Average electricity (cents per kilowatthour) ................. 10.3 12.9 12.3 17.3 16.7 21.3 20.6

1Includes waste coal. 2These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium is much larger, but

alternative processes are required to take advantage of it. 3Includes grid-connected electricity from wood and wood waste; biomass, such as corn, used for liquid fuels production; and non-electric energy demand from

wood. Refer to Table 17 for details. 4Includes grid-connected electricity from landfill gas; biogenic municipal waste; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sources; and non-electric energy from

renewable sources, such as active and passive solar systems. Excludes electricity imports using renewable sources and nonmarketed renewable energy. See Table 17 for selected nonmarketed residential and commercial renewable energy data.

5Includes non-biogenic municipal waste, liquid hydrogen, methanol, and some domestic inputs to refineries. 6Includes imports of finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, blending components, and renewable fuels such as ethanol. 7Includes imports of liquefied natural gas that are later re-exported. 8Includes coal, coal coke (net), and electricity (net). Excludes imports of fuel used in nuclear power plants. 9Includes crude oil, petroleum products, ethanol, and biodiesel. 10Includes re-exported liquefied natural gas. 11Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, gains, and net storage withdrawals. 12Estimated consumption. Includes petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, and coal-based synthetic liquids.

Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are hydrocarbon gas liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel. Refer to Table 17 for detailed renewable liquid fuels consumption.

13Excludes coal converted to coal-based synthetic liquids and natural gas. 14Includes grid-connected electricity from wood and wood waste, non-electric energy from wood, and biofuels heat and coproducts used in the production of liquid

fuels, but excludes the energy content of the liquid fuels. 15Includes non-biogenic municipal waste, liquid hydrogen, and net electricity imports. 16Includes reported prices for both open market and captive mines. Prices weighted by production, which differs from average minemouth prices published in EIA

data reports where it is weighted by reported sales. 17Prices weighted by consumption; weighted average excludes export free-alongside-ship (f.a.s.) prices. Btu = British thermal unit. - - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,

AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System runs highrt.d120816a and hr_no_cpp.d020917a.


Table 2. Energy consumption by sector and source (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Energy consumption Residential Propane ..................................................................... 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.40 0.40 Kerosene ................................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ....................... 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.72 0.72 0.66 0.66 Natural gas ................................................................ 4.56 4.89 4.89 4.81 4.81 4.85 4.84 Renewable energy1 ................................................... 0.37 0.40 0.40 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.30 Electricity ................................................................... 4.81 4.76 4.98 5.15 5.50 5.35 5.61 Delivered energy ................................................... 10.62 10.90 11.12 11.01 11.36 11.16 11.41 Electricity related losses ............................................ 9.39 8.95 9.42 8.67 9.32 8.29 8.66 Total ........................................................................ 20.01 19.86 20.54 19.68 20.68 19.46 20.07 Commercial Propane ..................................................................... 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.29 Motor gasoline2 ......................................................... 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 Kerosene ................................................................... 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.35 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ....................... 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.77 0.77 0.80 0.80 Natural gas ................................................................ 3.23 3.36 3.36 3.65 3.65 4.02 4.00 Coal ........................................................................... 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Renewable energy3 ................................................... 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Electricity ................................................................... 4.64 4.64 4.73 5.05 5.24 5.62 5.84 Delivered energy ................................................... 8.77 8.91 9.00 9.65 9.83 10.62 10.81 Electricity related losses ............................................ 9.06 8.73 8.95 8.50 8.86 8.71 9.01 Total ........................................................................ 17.82 17.64 17.96 18.15 18.69 19.33 19.82 Industrial4 Liquefied petroleum gases and other5 ....................... 2.49 3.21 3.22 3.56 3.56 3.68 3.66 Motor gasoline2 ......................................................... 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 1.29 1.55 1.56 1.69 1.70 1.81 1.82 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Petrochemical feedstocks ......................................... 0.66 0.96 0.96 1.09 1.09 1.14 1.14 Other petroleum6 ....................................................... 3.42 3.56 3.56 3.78 3.77 4.06 4.05 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ....................... 8.13 9.56 9.58 10.40 10.40 10.98 10.98 Natural gas ................................................................ 7.97 9.33 9.34 9.95 9.90 10.60 10.50 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lease and plant fuel7 ................................................. 1.62 2.03 2.03 2.53 2.52 2.73 2.75 Natural gas liquefaction for export8 ........................... 0.02 0.50 0.50 0.87 0.84 0.87 0.85 Natural gas subtotal ................................................ 9.61 11.86 11.88 13.35 13.26 14.19 14.10 Metallurgical coal....................................................... 0.52 0.41 0.42 0.22 0.22 0.17 0.17 Other industrial coal .................................................. 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.63 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net coal coke imports ................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Coal subtotal ........................................................... 1.25 1.16 1.17 0.87 0.87 0.82 0.82 Biofuels heat and coproducts .................................... 0.90 0.86 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.82 Renewable energy9 ................................................... 1.45 1.60 1.60 1.66 1.65 1.74 1.73 Electricity ................................................................... 3.23 3.82 3.85 3.98 4.01 4.20 4.24 Delivered energy ................................................... 24.57 28.86 28.94 31.10 31.02 32.75 32.68 Electricity related losses ............................................ 6.30 7.18 7.29 6.70 6.78 6.50 6.54 Total ........................................................................ 30.87 36.04 36.24 37.79 37.81 39.25 39.23


Table 2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued) (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Transportation Propane ..................................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Motor gasoline2 ......................................................... 17.27 15.46 15.47 13.26 13.21 13.94 13.88 of which: E8510 ...................................................... 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 Jet fuel11 .................................................................... 2.83 3.30 3.31 4.12 4.12 4.71 4.72 Distillate fuel oil12 ....................................................... 6.54 6.83 6.85 6.46 6.46 6.94 6.96 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.60 0.55 0.55 0.76 0.75 0.83 0.82 Other petroleum13 ...................................................... 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ....................... 27.40 26.31 26.35 24.78 24.72 26.61 26.57 Pipeline fuel natural gas ............................................ 0.69 0.79 0.79 0.95 0.95 1.06 1.07 Compressed / liquefied natural gas ........................... 0.07 0.13 0.13 0.30 0.30 0.46 0.46 Liquid hydrogen ......................................................... 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 Electricity ................................................................... 0.04 0.15 0.15 0.34 0.34 0.42 0.42 Delivered energy ................................................... 28.20 27.40 27.44 26.43 26.38 28.62 28.60 Electricity related losses ............................................ 0.07 0.27 0.28 0.57 0.58 0.64 0.65 Total ........................................................................ 28.27 27.68 27.72 27.00 26.96 29.26 29.25 Unspecified sector14 ................................................. -0.48 -0.44 -0.44 -0.26 -0.26 -0.24 -0.23 Delivered energy consumption for all sectors Liquefied petroleum gases and other5 ....................... 3.13 3.87 3.88 4.25 4.25 4.39 4.38 Motor gasoline2 ......................................................... 17.29 15.42 15.43 13.29 13.24 13.97 13.92 of which: E8510 ...................................................... 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 Jet fuel11 .................................................................... 3.28 3.72 3.72 4.63 4.64 5.31 5.32 Kerosene ................................................................... 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 8.01 8.67 8.70 8.33 8.34 8.83 8.86 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.71 0.65 0.65 0.86 0.85 0.94 0.93 Petrochemical feedstocks ......................................... 0.66 0.96 0.96 1.09 1.09 1.14 1.14 Other petroleum15 ...................................................... 3.57 3.72 3.72 3.94 3.93 4.22 4.22 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ....................... 36.66 37.02 37.08 36.41 36.36 38.82 38.77 Natural gas ................................................................ 15.83 17.71 17.72 18.71 18.65 19.93 19.80 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lease and plant fuel7 ................................................. 1.62 2.03 2.03 2.53 2.52 2.73 2.75 Natural gas liquefaction for export8 ........................... 0.02 0.50 0.50 0.87 0.84 0.87 0.85 Pipeline fuel natural gas ............................................ 0.69 0.79 0.79 0.95 0.95 1.06 1.07 Natural gas subtotal ................................................ 18.16 21.03 21.04 23.06 22.96 24.58 24.47 Metallurgical coal....................................................... 0.52 0.41 0.42 0.22 0.22 0.17 0.17 Other coal .................................................................. 0.77 0.79 0.79 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.68 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net coal coke imports ................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Coal subtotal ........................................................... 1.29 1.20 1.21 0.91 0.91 0.86 0.86 Biofuels heat and coproducts .................................... 0.90 0.86 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.82 Renewable energy16 .................................................. 1.95 2.13 2.13 2.12 2.11 2.16 2.16 Liquid hydrogen ......................................................... 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 Electricity ................................................................... 12.72 13.37 13.71 14.52 15.09 15.59 16.11 Delivered energy ................................................... 71.68 75.64 76.06 77.93 78.33 82.92 83.27 Electricity related losses ............................................ 24.81 25.14 25.95 24.43 25.54 24.14 24.87 Total ........................................................................ 96.50 100.77 102.01 102.36 103.87 107.06 108.13 Electric power17 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.05 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.13 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ....................... 0.22 0.13 0.13 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.07 Natural gas ................................................................ 10.46 10.99 11.09 15.07 15.49 18.40 19.38 Steam coal ................................................................ 12.64 10.64 11.86 7.45 9.90 5.94 9.16 Nuclear / uranium18 ................................................... 8.34 8.02 8.02 7.00 6.08 5.32 3.02 Renewable energy19 .................................................. 5.44 8.31 8.14 8.98 8.70 9.65 8.97 Non-biogenic municipal waste ................................... 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 Electricity imports ...................................................... 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 Total ........................................................................ 37.53 38.51 39.66 38.96 40.63 39.73 40.97


Table 2. Energy consumption by sector and source (continued) (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Total energy consumption Liquefied petroleum gases and other5 ....................... 3.13 3.87 3.88 4.25 4.25 4.39 4.38 Motor gasoline2 ......................................................... 17.29 15.42 15.43 13.29 13.24 13.97 13.92 of which: E8510 ...................................................... 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 Jet fuel11 .................................................................... 3.28 3.72 3.72 4.63 4.64 5.31 5.32 Kerosene ................................................................... 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 8.11 8.75 8.79 8.38 8.40 8.87 8.92 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.83 0.70 0.70 0.89 0.89 0.96 0.95 Petrochemical feedstocks ......................................... 0.66 0.96 0.96 1.09 1.09 1.14 1.14 Other petroleum15 ...................................................... 3.57 3.72 3.72 3.94 3.93 4.22 4.22 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ....................... 36.88 37.15 37.21 36.49 36.45 38.88 38.85 Natural gas ................................................................ 26.30 28.71 28.81 33.79 34.14 38.33 39.19 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lease and plant fuel7 ................................................. 1.62 2.03 2.03 2.53 2.52 2.73 2.75 Natural gas liquefaction for export8 ........................... 0.02 0.50 0.50 0.87 0.84 0.87 0.85 Pipeline fuel natural gas ............................................ 0.69 0.79 0.79 0.95 0.95 1.06 1.07 Natural gas subtotal ................................................ 28.62 32.02 32.13 38.13 38.45 42.98 43.85 Metallurgical coal....................................................... 0.52 0.41 0.42 0.22 0.22 0.17 0.17 Other coal .................................................................. 13.41 11.43 12.65 8.13 10.59 6.61 9.84 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net coal coke imports ................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Coal subtotal ........................................................... 13.93 11.85 13.07 8.36 10.81 6.80 10.02 Nuclear / uranium18 ................................................... 8.34 8.02 8.02 7.00 6.08 5.32 3.02 Biofuels heat and coproducts .................................... 0.90 0.86 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.82 Renewable energy20 .................................................. 7.39 10.44 10.27 11.10 10.81 11.82 11.13 Liquid hydrogen ......................................................... 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 Non-biogenic municipal waste ................................... 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 Electricity imports ...................................................... 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 Total ........................................................................ 96.50 100.77 102.01 102.36 103.87 107.06 108.13 Energy use and related statistics Delivered energy use .................................................. 71.68 75.64 76.06 77.93 78.33 82.92 83.27 Total energy use ......................................................... 96.50 100.77 102.01 102.36 103.87 107.06 108.13 Ethanol consumed in motor gasoline and E85 ............ 1.22 1.17 1.17 1.10 1.10 1.27 1.27 Population (millions) .................................................... 324 348 348 381 381 399 399 Gross domestic product (billion 2009 dollars) ............. 16,652 20,680 20,733 28,146 28,167 34,076 34,160 Carbon dioxide emissions (million metric tons) ........... 5,158 5,079 5,204 4,982 5,227 5,217 5,569

1Includes wood used for residential heating. See Table 4 and/or Table 17 for estimates of nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat

pumps, solar thermal water heating, and electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaic sources. 2Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline. 3Excludes ethanol. Includes commercial sector consumption of wood and wood waste, landfill gas, municipal waste, and other biomass for combined heat and

power. See Table 5 and/or Table 17 for estimates of nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for solar thermal water heating and electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaic sources.

4Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 5Includes ethane, natural gasoline, and refinery olefins. 6Includes petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, still gas, and miscellaneous petroleum products. 7Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery. 8Fuel used in facilities that liquefy natural gas for export. 9Includes consumption of energy produced from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal waste, and other biomass sources. Excludes ethanol in motor

gasoline. 10E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of

ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for these projections. 11Includes only kerosene type. 12Diesel fuel for on- and off- road use. 13Includes aviation gasoline and lubricants. 14Represents consumption unattributed to the sectors above. 15Includes aviation gasoline, petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, lubricants, still gas, and miscellaneous petroleum products. 16Includes electricity generated for sale to the grid and for own use from renewable sources, and non-electric energy from renewable sources. Excludes ethanol

and nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps, buildings photovoltaic systems, and solar thermal water heaters. 17Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 18These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium is much larger, but

alternative processes are required to take advantage of it. 19Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, other biomass, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal sources.

Excludes net electricity imports. 20Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood and wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, other biomass, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal sources.

Excludes ethanol, net electricity imports, and nonmarketed renewable energy consumption for geothermal heat pumps, buildings photovoltaic systems, and solar thermal water heaters.

Btu = British thermal unit. - - = Not applicable. Note: Includes estimated consumption for petroleum and other liquids. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016

are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 3. Energy prices by sector and source (nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Residential Propane ....................................................................... 16.26 15.77 15.79 14.65 14.60 15.09 14.89 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 15.40 23.97 24.07 27.07 26.93 28.03 27.98 Natural gas .................................................................. 9.82 10.18 10.22 11.53 11.54 11.92 12.02 Electricity ..................................................................... 36.50 38.80 36.64 38.18 36.28 38.46 37.13 Commercial Propane ....................................................................... 14.54 14.11 14.13 13.14 13.11 13.53 13.36 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 13.52 20.28 20.36 23.27 23.18 23.99 23.94 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 5.38 11.11 11.18 13.82 13.72 14.38 14.42 Natural gas .................................................................. 7.10 8.92 8.97 9.87 9.89 10.00 10.10 Electricity ..................................................................... 30.38 32.42 30.93 31.41 30.06 30.76 29.56 Industrial1 Propane ....................................................................... 11.49 10.98 11.00 9.82 9.78 10.28 10.08 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 13.53 20.72 20.81 23.75 23.66 24.44 24.40 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 5.15 12.93 13.00 15.58 15.47 16.17 16.20 Natural gas2 ................................................................ 3.41 4.34 4.40 4.27 4.26 4.15 4.26 Metallurgical coal ........................................................ 5.64 6.57 6.57 7.29 7.29 7.05 7.05 Other industrial coal .................................................... 3.34 3.43 3.45 3.37 3.43 3.41 3.51 Coal to liquids .............................................................. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Electricity ..................................................................... 20.34 21.14 20.18 20.75 19.96 20.61 19.89 Transportation Propane ....................................................................... 17.33 16.83 16.85 15.71 15.66 16.15 15.96 E853 ............................................................................ 25.94 29.82 30.08 28.91 28.64 30.30 30.22 Motor gasoline4 ........................................................... 18.34 24.13 24.24 26.42 26.30 26.71 26.66 Jet fuel5 ....................................................................... 9.75 17.55 17.65 21.01 20.88 22.40 22.37 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ...................................... 16.80 25.63 25.71 28.66 28.57 29.31 29.27 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 5.96 11.51 11.58 13.98 13.93 15.21 15.30 Natural gas7 ................................................................ 16.36 15.35 15.41 13.62 13.65 13.52 13.64 Electricity ..................................................................... 29.68 37.99 36.33 36.72 35.04 35.57 34.05 Electric power8 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 11.95 19.47 19.57 22.39 22.21 23.26 23.16 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 8.09 15.48 15.56 18.07 17.95 17.78 17.81 Natural gas .................................................................. 2.93 3.76 3.81 3.95 3.98 3.94 4.06 Steam coal .................................................................. 2.15 2.24 2.27 2.20 2.32 2.09 2.31 Uranium ....................................................................... 0.56 0.74 0.74 1.08 1.08 1.43 1.43 Average price to all users9 Propane ....................................................................... 14.06 13.64 13.66 12.44 12.40 12.82 12.63 E853 ............................................................................ 25.94 29.82 30.08 28.91 28.64 30.30 30.22 Motor gasoline4 ........................................................... 18.33 24.13 24.24 26.42 26.30 26.71 26.67 Jet fuel5 ....................................................................... 9.75 17.55 17.65 21.01 20.88 22.40 22.37 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 15.98 24.38 24.46 27.33 27.24 28.03 27.98 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 6.19 11.82 11.90 14.19 14.14 15.25 15.33 Natural gas .................................................................. 4.82 5.71 5.75 5.87 5.87 5.78 5.85 Metallurgical coal ........................................................ 5.64 6.57 6.57 7.29 7.29 7.05 7.05 Other coal .................................................................... 2.22 2.33 2.35 2.31 2.40 2.24 2.40 Coal to liquids .............................................................. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Electricity ..................................................................... 30.14 31.53 30.04 31.01 29.76 30.80 29.77 Non-renewable energy expenditures by sector (billion 2016 dollars) Residential .................................................................. 234 251 249 266 269 277 280 Commercial ................................................................. 174 194 190 210 208 229 229 Industrial1 .................................................................... 157 226 225 251 248 271 269 Transportation ............................................................. 450 608 611 640 636 707 704 Total non-renewable expenditures ............................ 1,014 1,280 1,276 1,368 1,362 1,484 1,482 Transportation renewable expenditures ...................... 1 2 2 4 4 4 4 Total expenditures .................................................. 1,015 1,282 1,277 1,371 1,366 1,488 1,486


Table 3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued) (nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Residential Propane ....................................................................... 16.26 18.95 18.94 24.00 23.98 30.64 30.24 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 15.40 28.81 28.88 44.37 44.24 56.92 56.80 Natural gas .................................................................. 9.82 12.23 12.27 18.89 18.95 24.21 24.40 Electricity ..................................................................... 36.50 46.63 43.96 62.57 59.59 78.11 75.39 Commercial Propane ....................................................................... 14.54 16.96 16.95 21.54 21.52 27.47 27.12 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 13.52 24.37 24.43 38.14 38.06 48.71 48.61 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 5.38 13.36 13.42 22.66 22.54 29.20 29.28 Natural gas .................................................................. 7.10 10.72 10.76 16.17 16.25 20.31 20.51 Electricity ..................................................................... 30.38 38.97 37.11 51.48 49.37 62.46 60.02 Industrial1 Propane ....................................................................... 11.49 13.19 13.20 16.10 16.06 20.87 20.46 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 13.53 24.91 24.96 38.92 38.86 49.63 49.54 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 5.15 15.54 15.59 25.53 25.41 32.84 32.90 Natural gas2 ................................................................ 3.41 5.22 5.28 7.00 7.00 8.42 8.65 Metallurgical coal ........................................................ 5.64 7.90 7.89 11.95 11.97 14.32 14.32 Other industrial coal .................................................... 3.34 4.13 4.15 5.52 5.64 6.92 7.12 Coal to liquids .............................................................. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Electricity ..................................................................... 20.34 25.41 24.21 34.01 32.79 41.84 40.38 Transportation Propane ....................................................................... 17.33 20.23 20.22 25.74 25.73 32.80 32.40 E853 ............................................................................ 25.94 35.84 36.09 47.39 47.04 61.53 61.36 Motor gasoline4 ........................................................... 18.34 29.00 29.08 43.30 43.20 54.24 54.14 Jet fuel5 ....................................................................... 9.75 21.09 21.17 34.43 34.29 45.49 45.42 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6 ...................................... 16.80 30.81 30.85 46.97 46.93 59.51 59.42 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 5.96 13.83 13.90 22.91 22.88 30.90 31.06 Natural gas7 ................................................................ 16.36 18.45 18.49 22.33 22.42 27.46 27.69 Electricity ..................................................................... 29.68 45.66 43.59 60.18 57.55 72.23 69.13 Electric power8 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 11.95 23.40 23.48 36.70 36.48 47.23 47.03 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 8.09 18.61 18.67 29.61 29.48 36.11 36.15 Natural gas .................................................................. 2.93 4.52 4.57 6.48 6.54 8.01 8.25 Steam coal .................................................................. 2.15 2.70 2.73 3.60 3.81 4.24 4.69 Uranium ....................................................................... 0.56 0.89 0.88 1.77 1.77 2.91 2.91


Table 3. Energy prices by sector and source (continued) (nominal dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Average price to all users9 Propane ....................................................................... 14.06 16.39 16.39 20.39 20.36 26.04 25.64 E853 ............................................................................ 25.94 35.84 36.09 47.39 47.04 61.53 61.36 Motor gasoline4 ........................................................... 18.33 29.00 29.08 43.30 43.20 54.24 54.14 Jet fuel5 ....................................................................... 9.75 21.09 21.17 34.43 34.29 45.49 45.42 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................... 15.98 29.31 29.35 44.79 44.73 56.93 56.81 Residual fuel oil ........................................................... 6.19 14.20 14.27 23.25 23.22 30.96 31.11 Natural gas .................................................................. 4.82 6.86 6.90 9.62 9.63 11.74 11.88 Metallurgical coal ........................................................ 5.64 7.90 7.89 11.95 11.97 14.32 14.32 Other coal .................................................................... 2.22 2.80 2.82 3.78 3.94 4.54 4.87 Coal to liquids .............................................................. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Electricity ..................................................................... 30.14 37.90 36.04 50.83 48.88 62.55 60.44 Non-renewable energy expenditures by sector (billion nominal dollars) Residential .................................................................. 234 302 299 437 442 563 568 Commercial ................................................................. 174 233 228 344 342 465 464 Industrial1 .................................................................... 157 272 270 412 408 550 546 Transportation ............................................................. 450 731 734 1,049 1,044 1,435 1,430 Total non-renewable expenditures ............................ 1,014 1,538 1,530 2,241 2,237 3,013 3,009 Transportation renewable expenditures ...................... 1 2 2 6 6 9 9 Total expenditures .................................................. 1,015 1,541 1,533 2,248 2,243 3,022 3,018

1Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 2Excludes use for lease and plant fuel. 3E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of

ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for these projections. 4Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal, State, and local taxes. 5Kerosene-type jet fuel. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes. 6Diesel fuel for on-road use. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes. 7Natural gas used as fuel in motor vehicles, trains, and ships. Includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 8Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 9Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices shown in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption. Btu = British thermal unit. - - = Not applicable. Note: Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 4. Residential sector key indicators and consumption (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)

Key indicators and consumption

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Key indicators Households (millions) Single-family .............................................................. 81.10 88.68 88.70 100.12 100.14 108.06 108.07 Multifamily ................................................................. 29.11 32.37 32.39 38.16 38.17 41.59 41.60 Mobile homes ............................................................ 5.84 5.37 5.38 4.83 4.83 4.57 4.57 Total ........................................................................ 116.06 126.42 126.46 143.12 143.13 154.23 154.24 Average house square footage ................................ 1,703 1,772 1,772 1,868 1,868 1,933 1,933 Energy intensity (million Btu per household) Delivered energy consumption .................................. 91.5 86.2 87.9 76.9 79.4 72.4 74.0 Total energy consumption ......................................... 172.4 157.1 162.4 137.5 144.5 126.1 130.1 (thousand Btu per square foot) Delivered energy consumption .................................. 53.7 48.7 49.6 41.2 42.5 37.4 38.3 Total energy consumption ......................................... 101.2 88.6 91.7 73.6 77.3 65.3 67.3 Delivered energy consumption by fuel Purchased electricity Space heating ........................................................... 0.33 0.35 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.33 0.34 Space cooling ............................................................ 0.84 0.78 0.81 0.87 0.94 0.91 1.00 Water heating ............................................................ 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 Refrigeration .............................................................. 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.41 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.16 0.16 Clothes dryers ........................................................... 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.29 Freezers .................................................................... 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 Lighting ...................................................................... 0.44 0.29 0.43 0.25 0.45 0.25 0.34 Clothes washers1 ...................................................... 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Dishwashers1 ............................................................ 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.15 Televisions and related equipment2 .......................... 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.35 Computers and related equipment3 ........................... 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 Furnace fans and boiler circulation pumps ................ 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 Other uses4 ............................................................... 1.38 1.55 1.57 1.76 1.79 1.81 1.83 Delivered energy ................................................... 4.81 4.76 4.98 5.15 5.50 5.35 5.61 Natural gas Space heating ........................................................... 2.82 3.08 3.08 2.99 2.99 2.95 2.95 Space cooling ............................................................ 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Water heating ............................................................ 1.21 1.29 1.28 1.29 1.28 1.36 1.35 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 Clothes dryers ........................................................... 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 Other uses5 ............................................................... 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 Delivered energy ................................................... 4.56 4.89 4.89 4.81 4.81 4.85 4.84 Distillate fuel oil Space heating ........................................................... 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.28 0.28 0.24 0.24 Water heating ............................................................ 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Other uses6 ............................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Delivered energy ................................................... 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 Propane Space heating ........................................................... 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.27 Water heating ............................................................ 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Other uses6 ............................................................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 Delivered energy ................................................... 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.40 0.40 Marketed renewables (wood)7 ..................................... 0.37 0.40 0.40 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.30 Kerosene ..................................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00


Table 4. Residential sector key indicators and consumption (continued) (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Delivered energy consumption by end use Space heating ........................................................... 4.21 4.51 4.52 4.22 4.24 4.08 4.10 Space cooling ............................................................ 0.87 0.80 0.83 0.89 0.96 0.93 1.01 Water heating ............................................................ 1.77 1.83 1.84 1.82 1.83 1.91 1.92 Refrigeration .............................................................. 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.41 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.39 0.39 0.42 0.42 Clothes dryers ........................................................... 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.36 Freezers .................................................................... 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 Lighting ...................................................................... 0.44 0.29 0.43 0.25 0.45 0.25 0.34 Clothes washers1 ...................................................... 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Dishwashers1 ............................................................ 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.15 Televisions and related equipment2 .......................... 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.35 Computers and related equipment3 ........................... 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 Furnace fans and boiler circulation pumps ................ 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 Other uses8 ............................................................... 1.68 1.85 1.87 2.06 2.09 2.11 2.13 Delivered energy ................................................... 10.62 10.90 11.12 11.01 11.36 11.16 11.41 Electricity related losses ............................................ 9.39 8.95 9.42 8.67 9.32 8.29 8.66 Total energy consumption by end use Space heating ........................................................... 4.85 5.17 5.20 4.79 4.83 4.59 4.62 Space cooling ............................................................ 2.51 2.26 2.35 2.36 2.56 2.34 2.55 Water heating ............................................................ 2.66 2.72 2.75 2.62 2.66 2.69 2.71 Refrigeration .............................................................. 1.04 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.99 1.00 1.03 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.56 0.59 0.59 0.64 0.64 0.66 0.66 Clothes dryers ........................................................... 0.66 0.70 0.71 0.76 0.78 0.80 0.81 Freezers .................................................................... 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 Lighting ...................................................................... 1.30 0.84 1.25 0.68 1.22 0.63 0.88 Clothes washers1 ...................................................... 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 Dishwashers1 ............................................................ 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.34 0.35 0.37 0.38 Televisions and related equipment2 .......................... 0.83 0.73 0.75 0.86 0.88 0.88 0.89 Computers and related equipment3 ........................... 0.32 0.23 0.24 0.14 0.15 0.09 0.09 Furnace fans and boiler circulation pumps ................ 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 Other uses8 ............................................................... 4.38 4.77 4.85 5.02 5.11 4.91 4.96 Total ........................................................................ 20.01 19.86 20.54 19.68 20.68 19.46 20.07 Nonmarketed renewables9 Geothermal heat pumps ............................................ 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 Solar hot water heating ............................................. 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 Solar photovoltaic ...................................................... 0.11 0.41 0.40 1.33 1.31 2.52 2.48 Wind .......................................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 Total ........................................................................ 0.16 0.47 0.47 1.41 1.38 2.61 2.57 Heating degree days10 ................................................. 3,989 4,105 4,105 3,923 3,923 3,804 3,804Cooling degree days10 ................................................. 1,528 1,518 1,518 1,670 1,670 1,774 1,774

1Does not include water heating portion of load. 2Includes televisions, set-top boxes, home theater systems, DVD players, and video game consoles. 3Includes desktop and laptop computers, monitors, and networking equipment. 4Includes small electric devices, heating elements, and motors not listed above. Electric vehicles are included in the transportation sector. 5Includes such appliances as outdoor grills, exterior lights, pool heaters, spa heaters, and backup electricity generators. 6Includes such appliances as pool heaters, spa heaters, and backup electricity generators. 7Includes wood used for primary and secondary heating in wood stoves or fireplaces as reported in the Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2009. 8Includes small electric devices, heating elements, outdoor grills, exterior lights, pool heaters, spa heaters, backup electricity generators, and motors not listed

above. Electric vehicles are included in the transportation sector. 9Consumption determined by using the fossil fuel equivalent of 9,510 Btu per kilowatthour. 10See Table A5 for regional detail. Btu = British thermal unit. - - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 5. Commercial sector key indicators and consumption (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Key indicators Total floorspace (billion square feet) Surviving ................................................................... 87.7 97.1 97.2 113.4 113.4 124.4 124.4 New additions ............................................................ 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 Total ........................................................................ 89.7 99.4 99.4 115.8 115.9 127.0 127.0 Energy consumption intensity (thousand Btu per square foot) Delivered energy consumption .................................. 97.7 89.7 90.5 83.3 84.8 83.6 85.1 Electricity related losses ............................................ 100.9 87.8 90.0 73.4 76.5 68.6 71.0 Total energy consumption ......................................... 198.6 177.5 180.6 156.7 161.3 152.2 156.1 Delivered energy consumption by fuel Purchased electricity Space heating1 .......................................................... 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.10 Space cooling1 .......................................................... 0.55 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.54 Water heating1 ........................................................... 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Ventilation ................................................................. 0.52 0.49 0.51 0.39 0.41 0.37 0.39 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 Lighting ...................................................................... 0.51 0.41 0.45 0.31 0.33 0.27 0.29 Refrigeration .............................................................. 0.64 0.63 0.65 0.61 0.71 0.64 0.76 Office equipment (PC) ............................................... 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.25 0.25 Office equipment (non-PC) ........................................ 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.34 0.34 0.41 0.42 Other uses2 ............................................................... 1.62 1.85 1.85 2.41 2.44 2.97 3.00 Delivered energy ................................................... 4.64 4.64 4.73 5.05 5.24 5.62 5.84 Natural gas Space heating1 .......................................................... 1.64 1.64 1.66 1.48 1.55 1.38 1.49 Space cooling1 .......................................................... 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Water heating1 ........................................................... 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.35 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.42 0.42 0.47 0.47 Other uses3 ............................................................... 0.94 1.02 1.02 1.41 1.33 1.80 1.67 Delivered energy ................................................... 3.23 3.36 3.36 3.65 3.65 4.02 4.00 Distillate fuel oil Space heating1 .......................................................... 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 Water heating1 ........................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other uses4 ............................................................... 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 Delivered energy ................................................... 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.35 Marketed renewables (biomass) ................................. 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Other fuels5 ................................................................. 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.44 0.45 0.49 0.49 Delivered energy consumption by end use Space heating1 .......................................................... 1.99 1.98 1.99 1.78 1.84 1.67 1.76 Space cooling1 .......................................................... 0.58 0.52 0.53 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.56 Water heating1 ........................................................... 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 Ventilation ................................................................. 0.52 0.49 0.51 0.39 0.41 0.37 0.39 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.40 0.43 0.43 0.49 0.49 0.54 0.54 Lighting ...................................................................... 0.51 0.41 0.45 0.31 0.33 0.27 0.29 Refrigeration .............................................................. 0.64 0.63 0.65 0.61 0.71 0.64 0.76 Office equipment (PC) ............................................... 0.35 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.25 0.25 Office equipment (non-PC) ........................................ 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.34 0.34 0.41 0.42 Other uses6 ............................................................... 3.21 3.56 3.55 4.57 4.52 5.57 5.47 Delivered energy ................................................... 8.77 8.91 9.00 9.65 9.83 10.62 10.81


Table 5. Commercial sector key indicators and consumption (continued) (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Electricity related losses ............................................. 9.06 8.73 8.95 8.50 8.86 8.71 9.01 Total energy consumption by end use Space heating1 .......................................................... 2.22 2.19 2.20 1.97 2.01 1.85 1.91 Space cooling1 .......................................................... 1.66 1.46 1.49 1.37 1.43 1.34 1.40 Water heating1 ........................................................... 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 Ventilation ................................................................. 1.53 1.42 1.46 1.04 1.11 0.94 1.00 Cooking ..................................................................... 0.56 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.62 0.65 0.65 Lighting ...................................................................... 1.51 1.19 1.30 0.83 0.90 0.69 0.75 Refrigeration .............................................................. 1.89 1.82 1.89 1.63 1.90 1.63 1.93 Office equipment (PC) ............................................... 1.05 0.86 0.86 0.79 0.80 0.64 0.65 Office equipment (non-PC) ........................................ 0.68 0.75 0.75 0.91 0.92 1.05 1.06 Other uses6 ............................................................... 6.37 7.03 7.06 8.64 8.64 10.16 10.10 Total ........................................................................ 17.82 17.64 17.96 18.15 18.69 19.33 19.82 Nonmarketed renewable fuels7 Solar thermal ............................................................... 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 Solar photovoltaic ........................................................ 0.08 0.17 0.17 0.42 0.39 0.64 0.61 Wind ............................................................................ 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 Total ......................................................................... 0.16 0.25 0.25 0.51 0.48 0.74 0.71 Heating degree days New England ............................................................... 5,995 6,065 6,065 5,809 5,809 5,637 5,637 Middle Atlantic ............................................................. 5,442 5,483 5,483 5,271 5,271 5,132 5,132 East North Central ....................................................... 5,913 6,210 6,210 6,160 6,160 6,127 6,127 West North Central ...................................................... 6,067 6,517 6,517 6,496 6,496 6,479 6,479 South Atlantic .............................................................. 2,591 2,551 2,551 2,439 2,439 2,369 2,369 East South Central ...................................................... 3,316 3,413 3,413 3,386 3,386 3,368 3,368 West South Central ..................................................... 1,903 2,033 2,033 1,955 1,955 1,904 1,904 Mountain ..................................................................... 4,670 4,826 4,826 4,647 4,647 4,522 4,522 Pacific .......................................................................... 2,941 3,294 3,294 3,193 3,193 3,124 3,124 United States .......................................................... 3,989 4,105 4,105 3,923 3,923 3,804 3,804 Cooling degree days New England ............................................................... 631 591 591 678 678 737 737 Middle Atlantic ............................................................. 898 815 815 912 912 976 976 East North Central ....................................................... 947 782 782 810 810 829 829 West North Central ...................................................... 1,056 978 978 1,007 1,007 1,027 1,027 South Atlantic .............................................................. 2,367 2,261 2,261 2,394 2,394 2,481 2,481 East South Central ...................................................... 1,902 1,719 1,719 1,792 1,792 1,840 1,840 West South Central ..................................................... 2,769 2,898 2,898 3,113 3,113 3,257 3,257 Mountain ..................................................................... 1,477 1,587 1,587 1,739 1,739 1,845 1,845 Pacific .......................................................................... 926 1,027 1,027 1,158 1,158 1,245 1,245 United States .......................................................... 1,528 1,518 1,518 1,670 1,670 1,774 1,774

1Includes fuel consumption for district services. 2Includes (but is not limited to) miscellaneous uses such as transformers, medical imaging and other medical equipment, elevators, escalators, off-road electric

vehicles, laboratory fume hoods, laundry equipment, coffee brewers, and water services. 3Includes miscellaneous uses, such as emergency generators, combined heat and power in commercial buildings, and manufacturing performed in commercial

buildings. 4Includes miscellaneous uses, such as cooking, emergency generators, and combined heat and power in commercial buildings. 5Includes residual fuel oil, propane, coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene. 6Includes (but is not limited to) miscellaneous uses such as transformers, medical imaging and other medical equipment, elevators, escalators, off-road electric

vehicles, laboratory fume hoods, laundry equipment, coffee brewers, water services, emergency generators, combined heat and power in commercial buildings, manufacturing performed in commercial buildings, and cooking (distillate), plus residual fuel oil, propane, coal, motor gasoline, kerosene, and marketed renewable fuels (biomass).

7Consumption determined by using the fossil fuel equivalent of 9,510 Btu per kilowatthour. Btu = British thermal unit. PC = Personal computer. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption

Shipments, prices, and consumption 2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Key indicators Value of shipments (billion 2009 dollars) Manufacturing ........................................................... 5,374 6,606 6,627 8,439 8,416 10,261 10,271 Agriculture, mining, and construction ........................ 2,079 2,626 2,636 3,170 3,177 3,615 3,632 Total ........................................................................ 7,453 9,233 9,264 11,609 11,593 13,876 13,903 Energy prices (2016 dollars per million Btu) Propane ..................................................................... 11.49 10.98 11.00 9.82 9.78 10.28 10.08 Motor gasoline ........................................................... 17.87 24.16 24.28 26.49 26.37 26.79 26.74 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 13.53 20.72 20.81 23.75 23.66 24.44 24.40 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 5.15 12.93 13.00 15.58 15.47 16.17 16.20 Asphalt and road oil................................................... 2.51 9.98 10.04 11.97 11.91 12.94 13.07 Natural gas heat and power ...................................... 3.14 4.15 4.21 4.06 4.05 3.94 4.05 Natural gas feedstocks .............................................. 3.65 4.51 4.56 4.46 4.46 4.35 4.46 Metallurgical coal....................................................... 5.64 6.57 6.57 7.29 7.29 7.05 7.05 Other industrial coal .................................................. 3.34 3.43 3.45 3.37 3.43 3.41 3.51 Coal to liquids ............................................................ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Electricity ................................................................... 20.34 21.14 20.18 20.75 19.96 20.61 19.89 (nominal dollars per million Btu) Propane ..................................................................... 11.49 13.19 13.20 16.10 16.06 20.87 20.46 Motor gasoline ........................................................... 17.87 29.04 29.13 43.41 43.31 54.40 54.29 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 13.53 24.91 24.96 38.92 38.86 49.63 49.54 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 5.15 15.54 15.59 25.53 25.41 32.84 32.90 Asphalt and road oil................................................... 2.51 11.99 12.05 19.62 19.56 26.28 26.54 Natural gas heat and power ...................................... 3.14 4.99 5.05 6.65 6.65 8.00 8.22 Natural gas feedstocks .............................................. 3.65 5.42 5.47 7.31 7.32 8.83 9.06 Metallurgical coal....................................................... 5.64 7.90 7.89 11.95 11.97 14.32 14.32 Other industrial coal .................................................. 3.34 4.13 4.15 5.52 5.64 6.92 7.12 Coal to liquids ............................................................ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Electricity ................................................................... 20.34 25.41 24.21 34.01 32.79 41.84 40.38 Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu)1 Industrial consumption excluding refining Propane heat and power ........................................... 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.44 0.47 0.47 Liquefied petroleum gas and other feedstocks2 ........ 2.07 2.81 2.82 3.12 3.12 3.21 3.19 Motor gasoline ........................................................... 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 1.29 1.55 1.56 1.69 1.70 1.81 1.82 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Petrochemical feedstocks ......................................... 0.66 0.96 0.96 1.09 1.09 1.14 1.14 Petroleum coke ......................................................... 0.16 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 Asphalt and road oil................................................... 0.86 0.91 0.92 1.26 1.26 1.57 1.57 Miscellaneous petroleum3 ......................................... 0.43 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.44 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ...................... 6.15 7.45 7.47 8.43 8.44 9.07 9.08 Natural gas heat and power ...................................... 5.77 6.72 6.71 7.32 7.26 7.98 7.89 Natural gas feedstocks .............................................. 0.81 1.20 1.21 1.24 1.25 1.22 1.22 Lease and plant fuel4 ................................................. 1.62 2.03 2.03 2.53 2.52 2.73 2.75 Natural gas liquefaction for export5 ........................... 0.02 0.50 0.50 0.87 0.84 0.87 0.85 Natural gas subtotal ............................................... 8.22 10.45 10.45 11.96 11.87 12.80 12.71 Metallurgical coal and coke6 ...................................... 0.52 0.41 0.42 0.23 0.22 0.18 0.18 Other industrial coal .................................................. 0.71 0.74 0.75 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.63 Coal subtotal .......................................................... 1.23 1.16 1.17 0.87 0.87 0.82 0.82 Renewables7 ............................................................. 1.45 1.60 1.60 1.66 1.65 1.74 1.73 Purchased electricity ................................................. 3.03 3.63 3.66 3.80 3.83 4.03 4.07 Delivered energy .................................................. 20.08 24.28 24.35 26.72 26.65 28.45 28.40 Electricity related losses ............................................ 5.91 6.81 6.92 6.40 6.48 6.23 6.28 Total ....................................................................... 26.00 31.09 31.27 33.12 33.13 34.69 34.68


Table 6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption (continued)

Shipments, prices, and consumption

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Refining consumption Liquefied petroleum gas heat and power2 ................. 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Petroleum coke ......................................................... 0.46 0.35 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.30 Still gas ...................................................................... 1.50 1.76 1.76 1.63 1.63 1.59 1.58 Miscellaneous petroleum3 ......................................... 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ...................... 1.98 2.11 2.11 1.97 1.96 1.91 1.90 Natural gas heat and power ...................................... 1.20 1.15 1.16 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.17 Natural gas feedstocks .............................................. 0.18 0.27 0.27 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural gas subtotal ............................................... 1.39 1.41 1.42 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.40 Other industrial coal .................................................. 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Coal subtotal .......................................................... 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Biofuels heat and coproducts .................................... 0.90 0.86 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.82 Purchased electricity ................................................. 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 Delivered energy .................................................. 4.49 4.58 4.59 4.37 4.37 4.30 4.29 Electricity related losses ............................................ 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.26 Total ....................................................................... 4.87 4.95 4.97 4.67 4.67 4.56 4.55 Total industrial sector consumption Liquefied petroleum gas heat and power2 ................. 0.42 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.44 0.47 0.47 Liquefied petroleum gas and other feedstocks2 ........ 2.07 2.81 2.82 3.12 3.12 3.21 3.19 Motor gasoline ........................................................... 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 Distillate fuel oil ......................................................... 1.29 1.55 1.56 1.69 1.70 1.81 1.82 Residual fuel oil ......................................................... 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Petrochemical feedstocks ......................................... 0.66 0.96 0.96 1.09 1.09 1.14 1.14 Petroleum coke ......................................................... 0.62 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.44 Asphalt and road oil................................................... 0.86 0.91 0.92 1.26 1.26 1.57 1.57 Still gas ...................................................................... 1.50 1.76 1.76 1.63 1.63 1.59 1.58 Miscellaneous petroleum3 ......................................... 0.43 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.45 0.46 Petroleum and other liquids subtotal ...................... 8.13 9.56 9.58 10.40 10.40 10.98 10.98 Natural gas heat and power ...................................... 6.98 7.86 7.87 8.47 8.42 9.14 9.06 Natural gas feedstocks .............................................. 0.99 1.47 1.47 1.48 1.48 1.45 1.44 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power ....................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lease and plant fuel4 ................................................. 1.62 2.03 2.03 2.53 2.52 2.73 2.75 Natural gas liquefaction for export5 ........................... 0.02 0.50 0.50 0.87 0.84 0.87 0.85 Natural gas subtotal ............................................... 9.61 11.86 11.88 13.35 13.26 14.19 14.10 Metallurgical coal and coke6 ...................................... 0.52 0.41 0.42 0.23 0.22 0.18 0.18 Other industrial coal .................................................. 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.63 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Coal subtotal .......................................................... 1.25 1.16 1.17 0.87 0.87 0.82 0.82 Biofuels heat and coproducts .................................... 0.90 0.86 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.82 Renewables7 ............................................................. 1.45 1.60 1.60 1.66 1.65 1.74 1.73 Purchased electricity ................................................. 3.23 3.82 3.85 3.98 4.01 4.20 4.24 Delivered energy .................................................. 24.57 28.86 28.94 31.10 31.02 32.75 32.68 Electricity related losses ............................................ 6.30 7.18 7.29 6.70 6.78 6.50 6.54 Total ....................................................................... 30.87 36.04 36.24 37.79 37.81 39.25 39.23


Table 6. Industrial sector key indicators and consumption (continued)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Energy consumption per dollar of shipments (thousand Btu per 2009 dollar) Petroleum and other liquids ....................................... 1.09 1.04 1.03 0.90 0.90 0.79 0.79 Natural gas ................................................................ 1.29 1.28 1.28 1.15 1.14 1.02 1.01 Coal ........................................................................... 0.17 0.13 0.13 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 Renewable fuels7 ...................................................... 0.32 0.27 0.27 0.22 0.21 0.18 0.18 Purchased electricity ................................................. 0.43 0.41 0.42 0.34 0.35 0.30 0.30 Delivered energy .................................................. 3.30 3.13 3.12 2.68 2.68 2.36 2.35 Industrial combined heat and power1 Capacity (gigawatts) .................................................... 26.3 29.3 29.0 37.1 36.1 43.7 42.2 Generation (billion kilowatthours) ................................ 140 167 166 208 203 243 236

1Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 2Includes ethane, natural gasoline, and refinery olefins. 3Includes lubricants and miscellaneous petroleum products. 4Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery. 5Fuel used in facilities that liquefy natural gas for export. 6Includes net coal coke imports. 7Includes consumption of energy produced from hydroelectric, wood and wood waste, municipal waste, and other biomass sources. Btu = British thermal unit. - - = Not applicable. Note: Includes estimated consumption for petroleum and other liquids. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016

are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 7. Transportation sector key indicators and delivered energy consumption


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Key indicators Travel indicators (billion vehicle miles traveled) Light-duty vehicles less than 8,501 pounds ........... 2,841 3,076 3,079 3,383 3,388 3,662 3,668 Commercial light trucks1 ........................................ 97 115 115 139 139 163 163 Freight trucks greater than 10,000 pounds ............ 276 325 326 378 378 426 427 (billion seat miles available) Air .......................................................................... 1,088 1,371 1,374 1,892 1,893 2,303 2,307 (billion ton miles traveled) Rail ........................................................................ 1,804 2,151 2,155 2,220 2,221 2,365 2,368 Domestic shipping ................................................. 482 422 425 291 294 254 256 Energy efficiency indicators (miles per gallon) New light-duty vehicle CAFE standard2 ................. 31.5 43.7 43.7 44.1 44.1 44.0 44.0 New car2 ............................................................. 36.9 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 New light truck2 .................................................. 28.5 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.4 Compliance new light-duty vehicle3 ....................... 31.8 44.3 44.5 45.2 45.5 45.0 45.3 New car3 ............................................................. 38.3 54.7 55.6 55.3 56.3 55.1 56.1 New light truck3 .................................................. 28.3 38.6 38.6 39.1 39.1 39.0 39.0 Tested new light-duty vehicle4 ............................... 31.0 44.2 44.5 45.2 45.5 45.0 45.3 New car4 ............................................................. 37.8 54.7 55.6 55.3 56.3 55.1 56.1 New light truck4 .................................................. 27.5 38.6 38.6 39.1 39.1 39.0 39.0 On-road new light-duty vehicle5 ............................. 25.0 35.7 35.9 36.5 36.7 36.3 36.5 New car5 ............................................................. 30.9 44.7 45.4 45.2 46.0 45.0 45.8 New light truck5 .................................................. 22.0 30.9 30.9 31.3 31.3 31.2 31.2 Light-duty stock6 .................................................... 22.2 26.8 26.9 34.5 34.7 35.6 35.8 New commercial light truck1 .................................. 13.1 19.5 19.5 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.6 Stock commercial light truck1 ................................ 13.8 16.8 16.8 19.7 19.7 20.3 20.3 Freight truck .......................................................... 7.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.3 (seat miles per gallon) Aircraft ................................................................... 66.7 69.0 69.0 74.9 74.9 79.0 79.0 (ton miles per thousand Btu) Rail ........................................................................ 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.5 Domestic shipping ................................................. 4.9 5.4 5.4 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.8 Energy use by mode (quadrillion Btu) Light-duty vehicles....................................................... 16.03 14.30 14.30 12.27 12.23 12.87 12.81 Commercial light trucks1 .............................................. 0.88 0.86 0.86 0.88 0.88 1.01 1.01 Bus transportation ....................................................... 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 Freight trucks .............................................................. 5.47 5.76 5.79 5.54 5.54 6.19 6.21 Rail, passenger ........................................................... 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Rail, freight .................................................................. 0.52 0.58 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.53 Shipping, domestic ...................................................... 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 Shipping, international ................................................. 0.81 0.75 0.76 0.98 0.97 1.06 1.05 Recreational boats ...................................................... 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.33 0.33 Air ................................................................................ 2.36 2.84 2.85 3.58 3.58 4.10 4.11 Military use .................................................................. 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.76 0.76 0.88 0.88 Lubricants .................................................................... 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 Pipeline fuel ................................................................. 0.69 0.79 0.79 0.95 0.95 1.06 1.07 Total ......................................................................... 28.21 27.36 27.39 26.36 26.31 28.58 28.56


Table 7. Transportation sector key indicators and delivered energy consumption (continued)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Energy use by mode (million barrels per day oil equivalent) Light-duty vehicles....................................................... 8.69 7.75 7.76 6.66 6.64 7.00 6.97 Commercial light trucks1 .............................................. 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.46 0.53 0.53 Bus transportation ....................................................... 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 Freight trucks .............................................................. 2.63 2.78 2.79 2.68 2.68 3.00 3.01 Rail, passenger ........................................................... 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Rail, freight .................................................................. 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Shipping, domestic ...................................................... 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Shipping, international ................................................. 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.44 0.43 0.47 0.47 Recreational boats ...................................................... 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 Air ................................................................................ 1.14 1.37 1.38 1.73 1.73 1.98 1.98 Military use .................................................................. 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.36 0.36 0.42 0.42 Lubricants .................................................................... 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 Pipeline fuel ................................................................. 0.33 0.37 0.37 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.50 Total ......................................................................... 14.56 14.06 14.08 13.47 13.44 14.60 14.59

1Commercial trucks 8,501 to 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight rating. 2CAFE standard based on projected new vehicle sales. 3Includes CAFE credits for alternative fueled vehicle sales and credit banking. 4Environmental Protection Agency rated miles per gallon. 5Tested new vehicle efficiency revised for on-road performance. 6Combined”on-the-road” estimate for all cars and light trucks. CAFE = Corporate average fuel economy. Btu = British thermal unit. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 8. Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions (billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, prices, and emissions

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Net generation by fuel type Electric power sector1 Power only2 Coal ........................................................................ 1,197 1,017 1,132 706 942 555 868 Petroleum ............................................................... 19 11 11 7 8 5 6 Natural gas3 ............................................................ 1,168 1,281 1,286 1,968 2,012 2,515 2,623 Nuclear power ........................................................ 798 767 767 669 581 509 289 Pumped storage/other4 .......................................... 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Renewable sources5 .............................................. 554 855 837 924 893 992 919 Distributed generation (natural gas) ....................... 0 2 3 12 32 19 56 Total .................................................................... 3,739 3,936 4,040 4,289 4,471 4,597 4,763 Combined heat and power6 Coal ........................................................................ 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 Petroleum ............................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Natural gas ............................................................. 145 140 140 140 139 141 138 Renewable sources ................................................ 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total .................................................................... 172 165 165 165 164 166 163 Total net electric power sector generation ........... 3,911 4,101 4,206 4,454 4,635 4,763 4,927 Less direct use .......................................................... 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 Net available to the grid ............................................ 3,890 4,080 4,185 4,434 4,614 4,743 4,906 End-use sector7 Coal .......................................................................... 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 Petroleum ................................................................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Natural gas ............................................................... 102 133 131 214 202 285 266 Other gaseous fuels8 ................................................ 11 21 21 21 20 21 21 Renewable sources9 ................................................ 53 93 92 214 208 363 356 Other10...................................................................... 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total end-use sector net generation .................. 185 263 260 463 445 682 655 Less direct use ......................................................... 135 215 213 393 378 576 556 Total sales to the grid ......................................... 50 48 47 70 67 106 99 Total net electricity generation by fuel Coal .......................................................................... 1,233 1,050 1,165 736 972 584 897 Petroleum ................................................................. 21 12 13 8 9 6 7 Natural gas ............................................................... 1,415 1,556 1,561 2,335 2,384 2,959 3,082 Nuclear power .......................................................... 798 767 767 669 581 509 289 Renewable sources5,9 .............................................. 612 952 934 1,142 1,106 1,359 1,279 Other11...................................................................... 17 27 27 27 27 27 27 Total net electricity generation .......................... 4,096 4,364 4,466 4,917 5,079 5,445 5,582 Net generation to the grid ......................................... 3,940 4,128 4,232 4,504 4,681 4,849 5,005 Net imports ................................................................... 57 55 55 42 42 40 41 Electricity sales by sector Residential .................................................................. 1,410 1,396 1,459 1,510 1,613 1,569 1,643 Commercial ................................................................. 1,360 1,361 1,387 1,480 1,534 1,648 1,711 Industrial ...................................................................... 946 1,120 1,130 1,167 1,175 1,230 1,242 Transportation ............................................................. 11 43 43 99 100 122 124 Total .......................................................................... 3,727 3,920 4,018 4,256 4,422 4,569 4,720 Direct use .................................................................... 156 236 234 413 399 596 577 Total electricity use ................................................. 3,883 4,156 4,252 4,669 4,821 5,165 5,297


Table 8. Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions (continued) (billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, disposition, prices, and emissions

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

End-use prices (2016 cents per kilowatthour) Residential .................................................................. 12.5 13.2 12.5 13.0 12.4 13.1 12.7 Commercial ................................................................. 10.4 11.1 10.6 10.7 10.3 10.5 10.1 Industrial ...................................................................... 6.9 7.2 6.9 7.1 6.8 7.0 6.8 Transportation ............................................................. 10.1 13.0 12.4 12.5 12.0 12.1 11.6 All sectors average ................................................. 10.3 10.8 10.2 10.6 10.2 10.5 10.2 (nominal cents per kilowatthour) Residential .................................................................. 12.5 15.9 15.0 21.3 20.3 26.7 25.7 Commercial ................................................................. 10.4 13.3 12.7 17.6 16.8 21.3 20.5 Industrial ...................................................................... 6.9 8.7 8.3 11.6 11.2 14.3 13.8 Transportation ............................................................. 10.1 15.6 14.9 20.5 19.6 24.6 23.6 All sectors average ................................................. 10.3 12.9 12.3 17.3 16.7 21.3 20.6 Prices by service category (2016 cents per kilowatthour) Generation .................................................................. 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.5 Transmission ............................................................... 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Distribution .................................................................. 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.4 (nominal cents per kilowatthour) Generation .................................................................. 5.9 7.1 7.0 9.4 9.1 11.6 11.2 Transmission ............................................................... 1.1 1.5 1.5 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.9 Distribution .................................................................. 3.3 4.3 3.8 5.9 5.4 7.3 6.9 Electric power sector emissions1 Sulfur dioxide (million short tons) ................................ 1.10 0.92 1.05 0.75 0.99 0.64 0.92 Nitrogen oxide (million short tons) ............................... 1.01 0.87 0.99 0.73 0.93 0.68 0.92 Mercury (short tons) .................................................... 4.84 4.05 4.52 2.84 3.67 2.24 3.40

1Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 2Includes plants that only produce electricity and that have a regulatory status. 3Includes electricity generation from fuel cells. 4Includes non-biogenic municipal waste. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2016 approximately 7 billion kilowatthours of electricity

were generated from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information Administration, Methodology for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy, (Washington, DC, May 2007).

5Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power. 6Includes combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity and heat to the public (i.e., those that report North American Industry

Classification System code 22 or that have a regulatory status). 7Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status; and small on-site

generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid. 8Includes refinery gas and still gas. 9Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, all municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power. 10Includes batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies. 11Includes pumped storage, non-biogenic municipal waste, refinery gas, still gas, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and

miscellaneous technologies. - - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 9. Electricity generating capacity (gigawatts)

Net summer capacity1

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Electric power sector2 Power only3 Coal4 ......................................................................... 261.7 177.2 191.7 138.4 169.3 115.4 162.8 Oil and natural gas steam4,5 ...................................... 95.7 75.3 77.9 64.0 71.3 57.5 63.9 Combined cycle ......................................................... 208.4 234.3 233.9 346.0 366.8 431.2 459.7 Combustion turbine/diesel ......................................... 138.7 136.1 139.7 151.7 161.3 183.6 187.2 Nuclear power6 .......................................................... 99.1 96.3 96.3 84.1 73.0 63.9 36.6 Pumped storage ........................................................ 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 Fuel cells ................................................................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Renewable sources7 ................................................. 190.5 258.3 253.8 281.4 270.6 311.7 279.6 Distributed generation (natural gas)8 ......................... 0.0 0.8 1.2 4.5 8.5 10.5 16.4 Total ...................................................................... 1,016.8 1,001.1 1,017.3 1,093.0 1,143.6 1,196.5 1,228.9 Combined heat and power9 Coal ........................................................................... 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Oil and natural gas steam5 ........................................ 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Combined cycle ......................................................... 24.3 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 Combustion turbine/diesel ......................................... 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Renewable sources7 ................................................. 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Total ...................................................................... 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 Cumulative planned additions10 Coal ........................................................................... - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oil and natural gas steam5 ........................................ - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Combined cycle ......................................................... - - 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 Combustion turbine/diesel ......................................... - - 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Nuclear power ........................................................... - - 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 Pumped storage ........................................................ - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel cells ................................................................... - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewable sources7 ................................................. - - 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 Distributed generation8 .............................................. - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total ...................................................................... - - 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.6 Cumulative unplanned additions10 Coal ........................................................................... - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oil and natural gas steam5 ........................................ - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Combined cycle ......................................................... - - 16.2 14.3 130.4 149.6 219.1 245.8 Combustion turbine/diesel ......................................... - - 4.4 7.7 28.0 36.0 62.1 64.3 Nuclear power ........................................................... - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pumped storage ........................................................ - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel cells ................................................................... - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewable sources7 ................................................. - - 52.2 47.7 75.3 64.4 105.6 73.5 Distributed generation8 .............................................. - - 0.8 1.2 4.5 8.5 10.5 16.4 Total ...................................................................... - - 73.5 70.9 238.2 258.7 397.3 400.0 Cumulative electric power sector additions10 ......... - - 114.1 111.4 278.8 299.2 437.8 440.6 Cumulative retirements11 Coal ........................................................................... - - 74.1 61.3 109.8 80.6 127.8 86.4 Oil and natural gas steam5 ........................................ - - 31.2 26.9 45.6 36.6 57.2 44.7 Combined cycle ......................................................... - - 7.9 6.4 10.4 8.9 13.9 12.1 Combustion turbine/diesel ......................................... - - 9.3 9.0 17.3 15.7 19.5 18.1 Nuclear power ........................................................... - - 9.1 9.1 24.1 35.2 44.3 71.6 Pumped storage ........................................................ - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel cells ................................................................... - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewable sources7 ................................................. - - 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Total ...................................................................... - - 132.1 113.2 207.7 177.5 263.1 233.5 Total electric power sector capacity........................... 1,049.5 1,033.7 1,050.0 1,125.6 1,176.3 1,229.2 1,261.6


Table 9. Electricity generating capacity (continued) (gigawatts)

Net summer capacity1

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

End-use generators12 Coal ............................................................................. 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 Petroleum .................................................................... 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Natural gas .................................................................. 17.1 21.2 20.8 34.9 32.9 46.5 43.4 Other gaseous fuels13 ................................................. 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Renewable sources7 ................................................... 22.8 51.3 51.0 134.9 131.1 234.4 229.4 Other14......................................................................... 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total ......................................................................... 46.9 79.9 79.2 176.6 170.7 287.5 279.4 Cumulative capacity additions10 .............................. - - 34.8 34.0 132.9 127.0 244.1 236.1

1Net summer capacity is the steady hourly output that generating equipment is expected to supply to system load (exclusive of auxiliary power), as demonstrated

by tests during summer peak demand. 2Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 3Includes plants that only produce electricity and that have a regulatory status. Includes capacity increases (uprates) at existing units. 4Total coal and oil and natural gas steam capacity account for the conversion of coal capacity to gas steam capacity, but the conversions are not included explicitly

as additions or retirements. The totals reflect 2.2 gigawatts of planned conversions as well as additional model-projected conversions. 5Includes oil-, gas-, and dual-fired capacity. 6Nuclear capacity includes 4.7 gigawatts of uprates. 7Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, all municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power. Facilities co-firing

biomass and coal are classified as coal. 8Primarily peak load capacity fueled by natural gas. 9Includes combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity and heat to the public (i.e., those that report North American Industry

Classification System code 22 or that have a regulatory status). 10Cumulative additions after December 31, 2016. 11Cumulative retirements after December 31, 2016. 12Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status; and small on-

site generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid. 13Includes refinery gas and still gas. 14Includes batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies. - - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 10. Electricity trade (billion kilowatthours, unless otherwise noted)

Electricity trade

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Interregional electricity trade Gross domestic sales Firm power ................................................................ 99 92 92 49 49 47 47 Economy ................................................................... 187 244 211 187 206 198 246 Total ....................................................................... 286 336 302 236 254 245 293 Gross domestic sales (million 2016 dollars) Firm power ................................................................ 6,425 5,963 5,963 3,169 3,169 3,091 3,091 Economy ................................................................... 5,616 9,245 7,912 7,832 8,091 8,570 9,780 Total ....................................................................... 12,040 15,208 13,875 11,001 11,261 11,661 12,872 International electricity trade Imports from Canada and Mexico Firm power ................................................................ 28.5 27.9 27.9 19.5 19.5 18.5 18.5 Economy ................................................................... 41.2 41.6 41.6 35.9 35.9 34.4 35.9 Total ....................................................................... 69.7 69.4 69.5 55.4 55.4 52.9 54.4 Exports to Canada and Mexico Firm power ................................................................ 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Economy ................................................................... 10.8 12.7 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 Total ....................................................................... 12.7 14.5 14.5 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2

- - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Firm

power sales are capacity sales, meaning the delivery of the power is scheduled as part of the normal operating conditions of the affected electric systems. Economy sales are subject to curtailment or cessation of delivery by the supplier in accordance with prior agreements or under specified conditions.

Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System runs highrt.d120816a and hr_no_cpp.d020917a.


Table 11. Petroleum and other liquids supply and disposition (million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Crude oil Domestic crude production1 ........................................ 8.74 13.32 13.25 16.92 16.91 17.24 17.32 Alaska ...................................................................... 0.48 0.82 0.82 1.05 1.05 0.63 0.63 Lower 48 states ........................................................ 8.27 12.50 12.43 15.86 15.86 16.61 16.69 Net imports .................................................................. 7.47 5.35 5.45 2.45 2.45 1.99 1.83 Gross imports ........................................................... 7.93 6.02 6.08 4.24 4.28 4.06 3.89 Exports ..................................................................... 0.46 0.67 0.63 1.79 1.83 2.07 2.07 Other crude supply2 ..................................................... 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total crude supply ....................................................... 16.30 18.75 18.77 19.37 19.36 19.23 19.15 Net product imports ........................................................ -2.64 -6.68 -6.65 -8.24 -8.27 -7.12 -7.12 Gross refined product imports3 .................................... 0.83 1.15 1.16 1.12 1.08 0.92 0.89 Unfinished oil imports .................................................. 0.57 0.52 0.52 0.41 0.41 0.35 0.35 Blending component imports ....................................... 0.62 0.54 0.54 0.34 0.33 0.28 0.28 Exports ........................................................................ 4.66 8.89 8.87 10.10 10.09 8.67 8.64 Refinery processing gain4 .............................................. 1.08 0.98 0.98 0.92 0.91 0.86 0.86 Product stock withdrawal ................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural gas plant liquids ................................................. 3.52 5.38 5.36 6.13 6.15 6.33 6.39 Supply from renewable sources ..................................... 1.05 1.07 1.07 1.01 1.01 1.15 1.14 Ethanol ........................................................................ 0.91 0.88 0.88 0.83 0.82 0.96 0.95 Domestic production ................................................. 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.91 Net imports ............................................................... -0.05 -0.08 -0.08 -0.09 -0.09 0.04 0.04 Stock withdrawal ...................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Biodiesel ...................................................................... 0.14 0.09 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Domestic production ................................................. 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Net imports ............................................................... 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 Stock withdrawal ...................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other biomass-derived liquids5.................................... 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 Domestic production ................................................. 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 Net imports ............................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Stock withdrawal ...................................................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Liquids from gas ............................................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Liquids from coal ............................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other6 ............................................................................. 0.22 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 Total primary supply7 ................................................... 19.54 19.79 19.82 19.46 19.45 20.72 20.69 Product supplied by fuel Liquefied petroleum gases and other8 ...................... 2.52 3.08 3.08 3.38 3.38 3.49 3.48 Motor gasoline9 ........................................................ 9.35 8.38 8.38 7.24 7.22 7.64 7.61 of which: E8510 ..................................................... 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 Jet fuel11 ................................................................... 1.59 1.80 1.80 2.25 2.25 2.57 2.58 Distillate fuel oil12 ...................................................... 3.82 4.15 4.17 3.98 3.99 4.22 4.24 of which: Diesel .................................................... 3.66 3.70 3.71 3.58 3.58 3.83 3.84 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.34 0.30 0.31 0.39 0.39 0.42 0.42 Other13...................................................................... 1.97 2.10 2.10 2.26 2.25 2.40 2.39 by sector Residential and commercial ..................................... 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 Industrial14 ................................................................ 4.54 5.51 5.53 6.01 6.02 6.32 6.31 Transportation .......................................................... 14.17 13.56 13.57 12.70 12.67 13.65 13.62 Electric power15 ........................................................ 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 Unspecified sector16 ................................................. -0.24 -0.23 -0.23 -0.14 -0.14 -0.13 -0.13 Total product supplied ................................................. 19.59 19.81 19.85 19.48 19.47 20.73 20.71 Discrepancy17 ................................................................. -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01


Table 11. Petroleum and other liquids supply and disposition (continued) (million barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)

Supply and disposition

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Domestic refinery distillation capacity18 .......................... 18.4 19.5 19.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 Capacity utilization rate (percent)19 ................................ 90.1 97.8 98.0 95.9 95.9 95.0 94.6 Net import share of product supplied (percent) .............. 24.7 -6.9 -6.3 -30.0 -30.2 -24.3 -25.1 Expenditures for imported crude oil and petroleum products (billion 2016 dollars) ..................... 126 180 183 156 156 158 152

1Includes lease condensate. 2Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude oil stock withdrawals. 3Includes other hydrocarbons and alcohols. 4The volumetric amount by which total output is greater than input due to the processing of crude oil into products which, in total, have a lower specific gravity

than the crude oil processed. 5Includes pyrolysis oils, biomass-derived Fischer-Tropsch liquids, biobutanol, and renewable feedstocks used for the on-site production of diesel and gasoline. 6Includes domestic sources of other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers. 7Total crude supply, net product imports, refinery processing gain, product stock withdrawal, natural gas plant liquids, supply from renewable sources, liquids

from gas, liquids from coal, and other supply. 8Includes ethane, natural gasoline, and refinery olefins. 9Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline. 10E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of

ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for these projections. 11Includes only kerosene type. 12Includes distillate fuel oil from petroleum and biomass feedstocks. 13Includes kerosene, aviation gasoline, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas, special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product

supplied, methanol, and miscellaneous petroleum products. 14Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 15Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 16Represents consumption unattributed to the sectors above. 17Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, and gains. 18End-of-year operable capacity. 19Rate is calculated by dividing the gross annual input to atmospheric crude oil distillation units by their operable refining capacity in barrels per calendar day. - - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 12. Petroleum and other liquids prices (2016 dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and fuel

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Crude oil prices (2016 dollars per barrel) Brent spot .................................................................... 43 81 81 96 95 101 101 West Texas Intermediate spot ..................................... 43 74 74 88 87 91 90 Average imported refiners acquisition cost1 ................ 38 75 75 91 90 96 95 Brent / West Texas Intermediate spread ..................... 1 7 7 8 8 10 10 Delivered sector product prices Residential Propane .................................................................... 1.49 1.44 1.44 1.34 1.33 1.38 1.36 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 2.12 3.30 3.31 3.72 3.70 3.85 3.85 Commercial Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 1.86 2.79 2.80 3.20 3.19 3.30 3.29 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.80 1.66 1.67 2.07 2.05 2.15 2.16 Residual fuel oil (2016 dollars per barrel) ................. 34 70 70 87 86 90 91 Industrial2 Propane .................................................................... 1.05 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.89 0.94 0.92 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 1.86 2.85 2.86 3.26 3.25 3.36 3.35 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.77 1.94 1.95 2.33 2.32 2.42 2.43 Residual fuel oil (2016 dollars per barrel) ................. 32 81 82 98 97 102 102 Transportation Propane .................................................................... 1.58 1.54 1.54 1.43 1.43 1.48 1.46 E853 ......................................................................... 2.46 2.84 2.86 2.75 2.73 2.88 2.88 Ethanol wholesale price ........................................... 2.22 2.72 2.72 2.43 2.42 2.30 2.29 Motor gasoline4 ........................................................ 2.21 2.90 2.91 3.17 3.16 3.19 3.19 Jet fuel5 .................................................................... 1.32 2.37 2.38 2.84 2.82 3.02 3.02 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6.................................... 2.31 3.52 3.54 3.94 3.93 4.03 4.02 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.89 1.72 1.73 2.09 2.09 2.28 2.29 Residual fuel oil (2016 dollars per barrel) ................. 37 72 73 88 88 96 96 Electric power7 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 1.64 2.68 2.69 3.08 3.05 3.20 3.18 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 1.21 2.32 2.33 2.70 2.69 2.66 2.67 Residual fuel oil (2016 dollars per barrel) ................. 51 97 98 114 113 112 112 Average prices, all sectors8 Propane .................................................................... 1.28 1.25 1.25 1.14 1.13 1.17 1.15 Motor gasoline4 ........................................................ 2.21 2.90 2.91 3.17 3.16 3.19 3.19 Jet fuel5 .................................................................... 1.32 2.37 2.38 2.84 2.82 3.02 3.02 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 2.20 3.35 3.36 3.76 3.74 3.85 3.85 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.93 1.77 1.78 2.12 2.12 2.28 2.29 Residual fuel oil (2016 dollars per barrel) ................. 39 74 75 89 89 96 96 Average ................................................................ 1.87 2.51 2.52 2.69 2.68 2.77 2.76


Table 12. Petroleum and other liquids prices (continued) (nominal dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and fuel

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Crude oil prices (nominal dollars per barrel) Brent spot .................................................................... 43 97 97 158 156 206 204 West Texas Intermediate spot ..................................... 43 89 89 145 143 186 183 Average imported refiners acquisition cost1 ................ 38 90 90 149 148 194 194 Delivered sector product prices Residential Propane .................................................................... 1.49 1.73 1.73 2.19 2.19 2.80 2.76 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 2.12 3.96 3.97 6.10 6.08 7.83 7.81 Commercial Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 1.86 3.35 3.36 5.24 5.23 6.70 6.68 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.80 2.00 2.01 3.39 3.37 4.37 4.38 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ............ 34 84 84 142 142 184 184 Industrial2 Propane .................................................................... 1.05 1.20 1.21 1.47 1.47 1.91 1.87 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 1.86 3.42 3.43 5.35 5.34 6.82 6.81 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.77 2.33 2.33 3.82 3.80 4.92 4.92 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ............ 32 98 98 161 160 206 207 Transportation Propane .................................................................... 1.58 1.85 1.85 2.35 2.35 3.00 2.96 E853 ......................................................................... 2.46 3.41 3.43 4.51 4.48 5.86 5.84 Ethanol wholesale price ........................................... 2.22 3.27 3.26 3.98 3.98 4.67 4.66 Motor gasoline4 ........................................................ 2.21 3.49 3.50 5.20 5.19 6.49 6.47 Jet fuel5 .................................................................... 1.32 2.85 2.86 4.65 4.63 6.14 6.13 Diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil)6.................................... 2.31 4.24 4.24 6.46 6.45 8.18 8.17 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.89 2.07 2.08 3.43 3.42 4.62 4.65 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ............ 37 87 87 144 144 194 195 Electric power7 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 1.64 3.22 3.23 5.05 5.02 6.49 6.46 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 1.21 2.79 2.80 4.43 4.41 5.40 5.41 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ............ 51 117 117 186 185 227 227 Average prices, all sectors8 Propane .................................................................... 1.28 1.50 1.50 1.86 1.86 2.38 2.34 Motor gasoline4 ........................................................ 2.21 3.49 3.50 5.20 5.19 6.49 6.47 Jet fuel5 .................................................................... 1.32 2.85 2.86 4.65 4.63 6.14 6.13 Distillate fuel oil ........................................................ 2.20 4.03 4.03 6.16 6.15 7.83 7.81 Residual fuel oil ........................................................ 0.93 2.13 2.14 3.48 3.48 4.63 4.66 Residual fuel oil (nominal dollars per barrel) ............ 39 89 90 146 146 195 196 Average ................................................................ 1.87 3.01 3.02 4.41 4.40 5.62 5.61

1Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners. 2Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 3E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of

ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for these projections. 4Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal, State, and local taxes. 5Includes only kerosene type. 6Diesel fuel for on-road use. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes. 7Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 8Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption. Note: Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 13. Natural gas supply, disposition, and prices (trillion cubic feet, unless otherwise noted)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Supply Dry gas production1 ..................................................... 26.62 37.41 37.47 47.89 47.86 52.83 53.43 Supplemental natural gas2 .......................................... 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Net imports .................................................................. 0.88 -6.27 -6.23 -10.80 -10.45 -11.03 -10.79 Pipeline3 ................................................................... 0.97 -1.49 -1.45 -2.42 -2.41 -2.65 -2.61 Liquefied natural gas ................................................ -0.09 -4.78 -4.78 -8.38 -8.05 -8.38 -8.18 Total supply .................................................................. 27.55 31.20 31.30 37.16 37.46 41.86 42.70 Consumption by sector Residential .................................................................. 4.42 4.74 4.74 4.66 4.66 4.70 4.69 Commercial ................................................................. 3.13 3.25 3.25 3.54 3.53 3.90 3.87 Industrial4 .................................................................... 7.72 9.04 9.05 9.64 9.59 10.27 10.18 Natural-gas-to-liquids heat and power5 ....................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural gas to liquids production6 ................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Electric power7 ............................................................ 10.11 10.62 10.72 14.56 14.96 17.78 18.73 Transportation8 ............................................................ 0.07 0.16 0.16 0.38 0.38 0.56 0.56 Pipeline fuel ................................................................. 0.67 0.76 0.76 0.92 0.92 1.02 1.03 Lease and plant fuel9 ................................................... 1.57 1.96 1.97 2.45 2.44 2.64 2.66 Liquefaction for export10 .............................................. 0.02 0.48 0.48 0.84 0.81 0.84 0.82 Total consumption ....................................................... 27.71 31.03 31.14 36.99 37.30 41.70 42.54 Discrepancy11 ............................................................... -0.16 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.16 Natural gas spot price at Henry Hub (2016 dollars per million Btu) ....................................... 2.42 3.44 3.50 3.40 3.37 3.33 3.44 (nominal dollars per million Btu) .................................. 2.42 4.14 4.20 5.56 5.53 6.76 6.98 Delivered prices (2016 dollars per thousand cubic feet) Residential ............................................................... 10.13 10.50 10.55 11.90 11.91 12.30 12.40 Commercial .............................................................. 7.33 9.21 9.25 10.18 10.21 10.32 10.42 Industrial4 ................................................................. 3.52 4.48 4.54 4.40 4.40 4.28 4.40 Electric power7 ......................................................... 3.03 3.89 3.94 4.09 4.12 4.08 4.21 Transportation12 ....................................................... 16.88 15.84 15.90 14.06 14.09 13.96 14.08 Average13 ............................................................. 4.98 5.90 5.94 6.07 6.06 5.97 6.04 (nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet) Residential ............................................................... 10.13 12.62 12.66 19.50 19.56 24.98 25.18 Commercial .............................................................. 7.33 11.07 11.10 16.69 16.77 20.96 21.16 Industrial4 ................................................................. 3.52 5.38 5.45 7.22 7.22 8.69 8.93 Electric power7 ......................................................... 3.03 4.68 4.73 6.71 6.77 8.29 8.54 Transportation12 ....................................................... 16.88 19.04 19.08 23.05 23.14 28.34 28.58 Average13 ............................................................. 4.98 7.09 7.13 9.94 9.95 12.13 12.27

1Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses. 2Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed

with natural gas. 3Natural gas imported from Canada and Mexico. 4Includes energy for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. Excludes use for lease and plant

fuel. 5Includes any natural gas used in the process of converting natural gas to liquid fuel that is not actually converted. 6Includes any natural gas converted into liquid fuel. 7Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 8Natural gas used as fuel in motor vehicles, trains, and ships. 9Represents natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations, and in natural gas processing plant machinery. 10Fuel used in facilities that liquefy natural gas for export.

11Balancing item. Natural gas lost as a result of converting flow data measured at varying temperatures and pressures to a standard temperature and pressure and the merger of different data reporting systems which vary in scope, format, definition, and respondent type. In addition, 2015 values include net storage injections.

12Natural gas used as fuel in motor vehicles, trains, and ships. Price includes estimated motor vehicle fuel taxes and estimated dispensing costs or charges. 13Weighted average prices. Weights used are the sectoral consumption values excluding lease, plant, and pipeline fuel. - - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 14. Oil and gas supply

Production and supply

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Crude oil Lower 48 average wellhead price1 (2016 dollars per barrel) ............................................ 43 75 76 90 89 94 93 Production (million barrels per day)2 United States total ..................................................... 8.74 13.32 13.25 16.92 16.91 17.24 17.32 Lower 48 onshore................................................... 6.54 10.54 10.47 13.96 13.95 14.71 14.79 Tight oil3 .............................................................. 4.60 8.39 8.32 11.94 11.94 12.89 12.96 Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery ................ 0.30 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.27 0.25 Other ................................................................... 1.64 1.76 1.76 1.63 1.63 1.56 1.57 Lower 48 offshore................................................... 1.72 1.96 1.96 1.90 1.91 1.90 1.90 State .................................................................... 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Federal ................................................................ 1.65 1.92 1.92 1.87 1.88 1.87 1.87 Alaska .................................................................... 0.48 0.82 0.82 1.05 1.05 0.63 0.63 Onshore .............................................................. 0.40 0.63 0.63 0.36 0.36 0.20 0.20 State offshore ...................................................... 0.07 0.19 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.13 0.13 Federal offshore .................................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.48 0.30 0.30 Natural gas plant liquids production (million barrels per day) United States total ....................................................... 3.53 5.38 5.36 6.13 6.16 6.33 6.40 Lower 48 onshore..................................................... 3.09 4.78 4.76 5.43 5.45 5.63 5.69 Lower 48 offshore..................................................... 0.41 0.52 0.52 0.59 0.60 0.64 0.64 Alaska ...................................................................... 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.06 0.06 Natural gas Natural gas spot price at Henry Hub (2016 dollars per million Btu) ................................... 2.42 3.44 3.50 3.40 3.37 3.33 3.44 Dry production (trillion cubic feet)4 United States total ..................................................... 26.62 37.41 37.47 47.89 47.86 52.83 53.43 Lower 48 onshore................................................... 24.57 35.38 35.44 45.50 45.43 50.35 50.93 Tight gas ............................................................. 4.68 5.26 5.27 7.07 7.07 8.32 8.46 Shale gas and tight oil plays3 .............................. 14.08 24.46 24.51 33.91 33.87 37.99 38.41 Coalbed methane ................................................ 1.13 0.95 0.94 0.73 0.72 0.58 0.59 Other ................................................................... 4.68 4.71 4.72 3.78 3.77 3.45 3.47 Lower 48 offshore................................................... 1.74 1.68 1.69 2.03 2.05 2.16 2.17 State .................................................................... 0.14 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Federal ................................................................ 1.61 1.64 1.64 2.01 2.03 2.15 2.16 Alaska .................................................................... 0.30 0.34 0.34 0.37 0.37 0.33 0.33 Supplemental gas supplies (trillion cubic feet)5 ...... 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Total lower 48 wells drilled (thousands) .................... 31.3 37.3 36.9 41.4 41.4 39.7 40.0

1Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies. 2Includes lease condensate. 3Tight oil represents resources in low-permeability reservoirs, including shale and chalk formations. The specific plays included in the tight oil category are

Bakken/Three Forks/Sanish, Eagle Ford, Woodford, Austin Chalk, Spraberry, Niobrara, Avalon/Bone Springs, and Monterey. 4Marketed production (wet) minus extraction losses. 5Synthetic natural gas, propane air, coke oven gas, refinery gas, biomass gas, air injected for Btu stabilization, and manufactured gas commingled and distributed

with natural gas. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 15. Coal supply, disposition, and prices (million short tons, unless otherwise noted)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Production1 Appalachia .................................................................. 186 145 164 119 134 110 124 Interior ......................................................................... 152 153 173 130 174 120 176 West ............................................................................ 409 369 395 255 320 198 299 East of the Mississippi ................................................. 308 269 301 232 285 218 278 West of the Mississippi ................................................ 440 399 431 272 343 210 322 Total ......................................................................... 748 667 732 504 628 428 600 Waste coal supplied2 ................................................... 10 7 7 7 7 6 7 Net imports Imports3 ....................................................................... 10 4 4 1 1 0 0 Exports ........................................................................ 55 63 66 81 81 87 88 Total ......................................................................... -45 -59 -62 -81 -81 -87 -88 Total supply4 ................................................................. 713 616 677 430 555 348 519 Consumption by sector Commercial and institutional ....................................... 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Coke plants ................................................................. 18 14 15 8 8 6 6 Other industrial5 ........................................................... 37 38 38 33 33 33 33 Coal-to-liquids heat and power .................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coal to liquids production ............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electric power6 ............................................................ 655 562 622 388 513 307 477 Total ......................................................................... 712 616 677 430 556 348 518 Discrepancy and stock change7 ................................. 1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 Average minemouth price8 (2016 dollars per short ton) ......................................... 34.3 34.2 35.2 37.5 38.7 39.8 40.0 (2016 dollars per million Btu) ....................................... 1.70 1.71 1.76 1.83 1.90 1.91 1.97 Delivered prices9 (2016 dollars per short ton) Commercial and institutional ....................................... 84.4 84.8 85.4 83.9 85.6 84.3 87.3 Coke plants ................................................................. 161.8 188.6 188.6 209.1 209.1 202.3 202.3 Other industrial5 ........................................................... 69.1 71.6 72.0 70.5 71.9 71.2 73.4 Coal to liquids .............................................................. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Electric power6 (2016 dollars per short ton) ...................................... 41.5 42.5 43.4 42.3 44.8 40.4 44.4 (2016 dollars per million Btu) .................................... 2.15 2.24 2.27 2.20 2.32 2.09 2.31 Average .............................................................. 46.1 47.8 48.2 47.6 48.8 46.4 48.2 Exports10 ..................................................................... 85.6 83.0 84.8 81.9 82.7 87.6 89.3


Table 15. Coal supply, disposition, and prices (continued) (million short tons, unless otherwise noted)


2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Average minemouth price8 (nominal dollars per short ton) ..................................... 34.3 41.2 42.3 61.5 63.5 80.9 81.3 (nominal dollars per million Btu) .................................. 1.70 2.06 2.11 3.00 3.12 3.87 3.99 Delivered prices9 (nominal dollars per short ton) Commercial and institutional ....................................... 84.4 102.0 102.5 137.5 140.6 171.3 177.2 Coke plants ................................................................. 161.8 226.7 226.3 342.7 343.4 410.8 410.8 Other industrial5 ........................................................... 69.1 86.1 86.4 115.6 118.0 144.6 148.9 Coal to liquids .............................................................. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Electric power6 (nominal dollars per short ton) .................................. 41.5 51.1 52.0 69.2 73.5 82.1 90.1 (nominal dollars per million Btu) ............................... 2.15 2.70 2.73 3.60 3.81 4.24 4.69 Average .............................................................. 46.1 57.5 57.8 78.0 80.1 94.2 97.9 Exports10 ..................................................................... 85.6 99.8 101.7 134.2 135.9 177.8 181.4

1Includes anthracite, bituminous coal, subbituminous coal, and lignite. 2Includes waste coal consumed by the electric power and industrial sectors. Waste coal supplied is counted as a supply-side item to balance the same amount

of waste coal included in the consumption data. 3Excludes imports to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 4Production plus waste coal supplied plus net imports. 5Includes consumption for combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. Excludes all coal use in the

coal-to-liquids process. 6Includes all electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 7Balancing item: the sum of production, net imports, and waste coal supplied minus total consumption. 8Includes reported prices for both open market and captive mines. Prices weighted by production, which differs from average minemouth prices published in EIA

data reports where it is weighted by reported sales. 9Prices weighted by consumption; weighted average excludes commercial and institutional prices, and export free-alongside-ship prices. 10Free-alongside-ship price at U.S. port of exit. - - = Not applicable. Btu = British thermal unit. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 16. Renewable energy generating capacity and generation (gigawatts, unless otherwise noted)

Net summer capacity and generation

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Electric power sector1 Net summer capacity Conventional hydroelectric power ............................ 79.3 79.3 79.3 79.4 79.4 79.5 79.4 Geothermal2 ............................................................. 2.5 3.9 3.9 6.5 6.5 6.9 6.9 Municipal waste3 ...................................................... 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Wood and other biomass4 ........................................ 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Solar thermal ............................................................ 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Solar photovoltaic5 ................................................... 19.4 28.1 28.9 47.0 41.9 75.6 49.5 Wind ......................................................................... 81.3 138.7 133.4 140.2 134.3 141.3 135.5 Offshore wind ........................................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total electric power sector capacity .................. 191.6 259.4 254.9 282.5 271.6 312.8 280.7 Generation (billion kilowatthours) Conventional hydroelectric power ............................ 262.5 307.0 307.0 307.5 308.0 309.2 308.1 Geothermal2 ............................................................. 16.8 28.0 28.1 49.3 49.3 52.5 52.5 Biogenic municipal waste6 ........................................ 19.7 20.3 20.3 21.3 21.4 22.6 22.6 Wood and other biomass ......................................... 5.4 7.8 8.1 10.1 11.2 11.4 14.4 Dedicated plants .................................................... 4.8 7.4 7.6 9.5 9.8 10.6 11.8 Cofiring .................................................................. 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.8 2.6 Solar thermal ............................................................ 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 Solar photovoltaic5 ................................................... 30.4 53.9 55.3 91.4 81.7 147.0 94.9 Wind ......................................................................... 220.8 439.0 419.1 445.3 422.9 450.6 428.0 Offshore wind ........................................................... 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total electric power sector generation .............. 558.9 859.8 841.6 928.5 898.1 996.9 923.9 End-use sectors7 Net summer capacity Conventional hydroelectric power ......................... 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Geothermal ........................................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Municipal waste8 ................................................... 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Biomass ................................................................ 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 Solar photovoltaic5 ................................................ 14.4 43.0 42.7 126.1 122.6 224.5 220.0 Wind ...................................................................... 3.1 3.2 3.1 4.2 3.9 5.4 5.0 Total end-use sector capacity ......................... 22.8 51.3 51.0 134.9 131.1 234.4 229.4 Generation (billion kilowatthours) Conventional hydroelectric power ......................... 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Geothermal ........................................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Municipal waste8 ................................................... 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Biomass ................................................................ 24.1 22.5 22.6 19.2 19.4 18.6 18.7 Solar photovoltaic5 ................................................ 20.0 60.7 60.3 183.5 178.4 331.7 325.1 Wind ...................................................................... 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.5 5.0 7.0 6.4 Total end-use sector generation ..................... 53.4 92.6 92.3 213.6 208.2 362.6 355.5


Table 16. Renewable energy generating capacity and generation (continued) (gigawatts, unless otherwise noted)

Net summer capacity and generation

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Total, all sectors Net summer capacity Conventional hydroelectric power ............................ 79.6 79.6 79.6 79.6 79.7 79.8 79.6 Geothermal .............................................................. 2.5 3.9 3.9 6.5 6.5 6.9 6.9 Municipal waste ........................................................ 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 Wood and other biomass4 ........................................ 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 Solar5 ....................................................................... 35.6 73.1 73.6 175.1 166.5 302.1 271.4 Wind ......................................................................... 84.4 141.8 136.6 144.5 138.2 146.7 140.5 Total capacity, all sectors ................................... 214.4 310.7 305.9 417.5 402.7 547.2 510.1 Generation (billion kilowatthours) Conventional hydroelectric power ............................ 263.9 308.3 308.3 308.8 309.3 310.5 309.4 Geothermal .............................................................. 16.8 28.0 28.1 49.3 49.3 52.5 52.5 Municipal waste ........................................................ 23.7 24.3 24.4 25.4 25.4 26.7 26.6 Wood and other biomass ......................................... 29.5 30.3 30.6 29.3 30.6 30.0 33.1 Solar5 ....................................................................... 53.7 118.3 119.3 278.5 263.7 482.1 423.4 Wind ......................................................................... 224.9 443.1 423.2 450.9 428.0 457.6 434.4 Total generation, all sectors ............................... 612.4 952.4 933.9 1,142.1 1,106.3 1,359.5 1,279.4

1Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 2Includes both hydrothermal resources (hot water and steam) and near-field enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Near-field EGS potential occurs on known

hydrothermal sites, however this potential requires the addition of external fluids for electricity generation and is only available after 2025. 3Includes municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. Incremental growth is assumed to be for landfill gas facilities. All municipal waste is

included, although a portion of the municipal waste stream contains petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. 4Facilities co-firing biomass and coal are classified as coal. 5Does not include off-grid photovoltaics. 6Includes biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. Incremental growth is assumed to be for landfill gas facilities. Only biogenic

municipal waste is included. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2016 approximately 7 billion kilowatthours of electricity were generated from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information Administration, Methodology for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy (Washington, DC, May 2007).

7Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors that have a non-regulatory status; and small on-site generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid.

8Includes municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. All municipal waste is included, although a portion of the municipal waste stream contains petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources.

- - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 17. Renewable energy consumption by sector and source (quadrillion Btu per year)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Marketed renewable energy1 Residential (wood) .................................................... 0.37 0.40 0.40 0.33 0.33 0.30 0.30 Commercial (biomass) .............................................. 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Industrial2 ................................................................... 2.35 2.46 2.47 2.50 2.49 2.56 2.55 Conventional hydroelectric power ............................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Municipal waste3 ...................................................... 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.28 Biomass ................................................................... 1.26 1.36 1.36 1.40 1.39 1.46 1.45 Biofuels heat and coproducts ................................... 0.90 0.86 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.82 Transportation ........................................................... 1.46 1.52 1.52 1.46 1.46 1.63 1.63 Ethanol used in E854 ................................................ 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 Ethanol used in gasoline blending ............................ 1.16 1.09 1.09 0.98 0.98 1.14 1.14 Biodiesel used in distillate blending .......................... 0.28 0.18 0.18 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 Biobutanol ................................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Liquids from biomass ............................................... 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Renewable diesel and gasoline5 .............................. 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 Electric power6 .......................................................... 5.44 8.31 8.14 8.98 8.70 9.65 8.97 Conventional hydroelectric power ............................ 2.50 2.92 2.92 2.92 2.93 2.94 2.93 Geothermal .............................................................. 0.16 0.27 0.27 0.47 0.47 0.50 0.50 Biogenic municipal waste7 ........................................ 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.31 0.31 Biomass ................................................................... 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.23 Dedicated plants .................................................... 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.16 Cofiring .................................................................. 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.07 Solar thermal ............................................................ 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Solar photovoltaic ..................................................... 0.29 0.51 0.52 0.86 0.77 1.39 0.90 Wind ......................................................................... 2.10 4.18 3.99 4.24 4.02 4.29 4.07 Total marketed renewable energy............................... 9.75 12.82 12.66 13.40 13.11 14.27 13.58 Sources of ethanol from corn and other starch .......................................... 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.17 from cellulose .............................................................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net imports .................................................................. -0.07 -0.11 -0.11 -0.12 -0.12 0.06 0.05 Total ......................................................................... 1.18 1.13 1.13 1.07 1.06 1.23 1.23


Table 17. Renewable energy consumption by sector and source (continued) (quadrillion Btu per year)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Nonmarketed renewable energy8 Selected consumption Residential ................................................................. 0.16 0.47 0.47 1.41 1.38 2.61 2.57 Solar hot water heating ............................................ 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 Geothermal heat pumps ........................................... 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 Solar photovoltaic ..................................................... 0.11 0.41 0.40 1.33 1.31 2.52 2.48 Wind ......................................................................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 Commercial ............................................................... 0.16 0.25 0.25 0.51 0.48 0.74 0.71 Solar thermal ............................................................ 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 Solar photovoltaic ..................................................... 0.08 0.17 0.17 0.42 0.39 0.64 0.61 Wind ......................................................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02

1Includes nonelectric renewable energy groups for which the energy source is bought and sold in the marketplace, although all transactions may not necessarily

be marketed, and marketed renewable energy inputs for electricity entering the marketplace on the electric power grid. Excludes electricity imports; see Table A2. Actual heat rates used to determine fuel consumption for all renewable fuels except hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, and wind. Consumption at hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, and wind facilities is determined by using the fossil fuel equivalent of 9,510 Btu per kilowatthour.

2Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 3Includes municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. All municipal waste is included, although a portion of the municipal waste stream contains

petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. 4Excludes motor gasoline component of E85. E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable). To address

cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for these projections. 5Renewable feedstocks for the on-site production of diesel and gasoline. 6Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 7Includes biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas, and municipal sewage sludge. Incremental growth is assumed to be for landfill gas facilities. Only biogenic

municipal waste is included. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2016 approximately 0.3 quadrillion Btus were consumed from a municipal waste stream containing petroleum-derived plastics and other non-renewable sources. See U.S. Energy Information Administration, Methodology for Allocating Municipal Solid Waste to Biogenic and Non-Biogenic Energy (Washington, DC, May 2007).

8Includes selected renewable energy consumption data for which the energy is not bought or sold, either directly or indirectly as an input to marketed energy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration does not estimate or project total consumption of nonmarketed renewable energy.

- - = Not applicable. Btu = British thermal unit. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 18. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector and source (million metric tons, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and source

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Residential Petroleum .................................................................... 59 58 58 49 49 44 44 Natural gas .................................................................. 242 260 259 255 255 257 257 Electricity1 ................................................................... 675 576 631 541 649 533 665 Total residential ...................................................... 977 893 948 844 952 835 967 Commercial Petroleum .................................................................... 52 52 52 54 54 56 56 Natural gas .................................................................. 171 178 178 194 193 213 212 Coal ............................................................................. 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Electricity1 ................................................................... 652 561 599 530 617 560 692 Total commercial .................................................... 878 796 834 782 869 833 965 Industrial2 Petroleum .................................................................... 376 412 413 423 424 435 436 Natural gas3 ................................................................ 486 594 594 671 666 717 712 Coal ............................................................................. 122 114 114 87 86 82 82 Electricity1 ................................................................... 453 462 488 418 472 418 503 Total industrial........................................................ 1,437 1,581 1,610 1,599 1,649 1,652 1,732 Transportation Petroleum4 .................................................................. 1,821 1,742 1,744 1,650 1,646 1,770 1,768 Natural gas5 ................................................................ 40 51 51 71 71 87 87 Electricity1 ................................................................... 5 18 18 35 40 41 50 Total transportation ............................................... 1,866 1,810 1,813 1,756 1,757 1,898 1,905 Electric power6 Petroleum .................................................................... 17 10 10 6 7 4 5 Natural gas .................................................................. 555 583 588 800 822 973 1,026 Coal ............................................................................. 1,202 1,012 1,126 706 938 562 867 Other7 .......................................................................... 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Total electric power ................................................ 1,785 1,616 1,736 1,524 1,779 1,551 1,910 Total by fuel Petroleum4 .................................................................. 2,325 2,273 2,277 2,182 2,179 2,310 2,310 Natural gas .................................................................. 1,495 1,665 1,671 1,991 2,008 2,247 2,294 Coal ............................................................................. 1,327 1,130 1,245 797 1,029 648 953 Other7 .......................................................................... 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Total ......................................................................... 5,158 5,079 5,204 4,982 5,227 5,217 5,569 Carbon dioxide emissions (metric tons per person) ............................................. 15.9 14.6 15.0 13.1 13.7 13.1 14.0

1Emissions from the electric power sector are distributed to the end-use sectors. 2Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 3Includes lease and plant fuel. 4This includes carbon dioxide from international bunker fuels, both civilian and military, which are excluded from the accounting of carbon dioxide emissions under

the United Nations convention. From 1990 through 2014, international bunker fuels accounted for 90 to 126 million metric tons annually. 5Includes pipeline fuel natural gas and natural gas used as fuel in motor vehicles, trains, and ships. 6Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 7Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal waste. Note: By convention, the direct emissions from biogenic energy sources are excluded from energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The release of carbon from

these sources is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time. If, however, increased use of biomass energy results in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, a net positive release of carbon may occur. See Table 19, "Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End Use", for the emissions from biogenic energy sources as an indication of the potential net release of carbon dioxide in the absence of offsetting sequestration. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports.

Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System runs highrt.d120816a and hr_no_cpp.d020917a.


Table 19. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use (million metric tons)

Sector and end use

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Residential Space heating ............................................................. 243 253 256 232 238 223 231 Space cooling .............................................................. 120 95 103 92 112 92 119 Water heating .............................................................. 135 130 134 122 129 125 136 Refrigeration ................................................................ 49 40 42 38 43 39 48 Cooking ....................................................................... 28 28 28 29 30 30 33 Clothes dryers ............................................................. 32 30 32 31 35 32 38 Freezers ...................................................................... 10 8 9 7 8 7 8 Lighting ........................................................................ 62 35 55 27 54 25 41 Clothes washers1 ........................................................ 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 Dishwashers1 .............................................................. 13 12 13 13 15 15 18 Televisions and related equipment2 ............................ 40 31 33 34 38 34 42 Computers and related equipment3 ............................. 15 10 10 6 6 4 4 Furnace fans and boiler circulation pumps .................. 15 15 15 11 12 11 13 Other uses4 ................................................................. 210 204 216 201 227 197 234 Discrepancy5 ............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total residential ...................................................... 977 893 948 844 952 835 967 Commercial Space heating6 ............................................................ 121 117 118 104 108 98 103 Space cooling6 ............................................................ 79 61 66 54 63 52 65 Water heating6............................................................. 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 Ventilation ................................................................... 73 60 64 41 48 37 47 Cooking ....................................................................... 28 28 29 30 31 32 33 Lighting ........................................................................ 72 50 57 32 39 27 35 Refrigeration ................................................................ 90 76 83 64 83 64 90 Office equipment (PC) ................................................. 50 36 38 31 35 25 30 Office equipment (non-PC) .......................................... 32 31 33 35 40 41 49 Other uses7 ................................................................. 314 317 328 372 402 438 492 Total commercial .................................................... 878 796 834 782 869 833 965 Industrial8 Manufacturing Refining .................................................................... 249 248 250 231 234 225 228 Food products .......................................................... 92 102 105 120 127 137 147 Paper products ......................................................... 64 55 56 38 40 33 35 Bulk chemicals ......................................................... 255 326 330 326 334 321 330 Glass ........................................................................ 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 Cement and lime ...................................................... 26 31 32 33 34 38 39 Iron and steel ........................................................... 107 93 95 61 62 56 58 Aluminum ................................................................. 36 34 35 30 31 28 31 Fabricated metal products ........................................ 30 31 33 29 32 29 34 Machinery ................................................................. 16 19 21 21 24 23 28 Computers and electronics ....................................... 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 Transportation equipment ........................................ 34 35 37 36 40 41 48 Electrical equipment ................................................. 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 Wood products ......................................................... 13 16 16 18 18 20 21 Plastics ..................................................................... 31 33 34 35 39 41 47 Balance of manufacturing ......................................... 119 116 120 109 116 110 120 Total manufacturing ............................................ 1,114 1,183 1,208 1,134 1,181 1,153 1,222 Nonmanufacturing Agriculture ................................................................ 82 86 87 85 88 88 91 Construction ............................................................. 68 76 78 81 86 90 97 Mining ....................................................................... 99 113 116 121 126 127 136 Total nonmanufacturing ..................................... 250 275 281 287 300 304 324 Discrepancy5 ............................................................... 73 123 120 177 167 195 186 Total industrial........................................................ 1,437 1,581 1,610 1,599 1,649 1,652 1,732


Table 19. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use (continued) (million metric tons)

Sector and end use

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Transportation Light-duty vehicles....................................................... 1,061 945 946 808 809 840 844 Commercial light trucks9 .............................................. 59 57 57 58 58 65 65 Bus transportation ....................................................... 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 Freight trucks .............................................................. 379 394 396 376 376 420 422 Rail, passenger ........................................................... 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 Rail, freight .................................................................. 36 40 40 34 34 33 33 Shipping, domestic ...................................................... 7 5 5 3 3 3 3 Shipping, international ................................................. 61 57 57 75 74 80 80 Recreational boats ...................................................... 17 19 19 21 21 22 22 Air ................................................................................ 168 201 202 253 254 290 291 Military use .................................................................. 47 45 45 54 54 62 62 Lubricants .................................................................... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Pipeline fuel ................................................................. 37 42 42 50 50 56 57 Discrepancy5 ............................................................... -33 -23 -23 -4 -4 -2 -1 Total transportation ............................................... 1,866 1,810 1,813 1,756 1,757 1,898 1,905 Biogenic energy combustion10 Biomass ...................................................................... 175 189 190 190 190 195 198 Electric power sector ................................................ 9 13 13 16 17 18 21 Other sectors ............................................................ 165 177 177 174 173 177 176 Biogenic waste ............................................................ 23 24 24 26 26 28 28 Biofuels heat and coproducts ...................................... 84 81 81 79 79 77 77 Ethanol ........................................................................ 80 77 77 73 73 84 84 Biodiesel ...................................................................... 20 13 13 7 7 7 7 Liquids from biomass .................................................. 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Renewable diesel and gasoline ................................... 0 15 15 21 21 21 21 Total ......................................................................... 383 400 401 397 397 414 416

1Does not include water heating portion of load. 2Includes televisions, set-top boxes, home theater systems, DVD players, and video game consoles. 3Includes desktop and laptop computers, monitors, and networking equipment. 4Includes small electric devices, heating elements, outdoor grills, exterior lights, pool heaters, spa heaters, backup electricity generators, and motors not listed

above. Electric vehicles are included in the transportation sector. 5Represents differences between total emissions by end-use and total emissions by fuel as reported in Table A18. Emissions by fuel may reflect benchmarking

and other modeling adjustments to energy use and the associated emissions that are not assigned to specific end uses. 6Includes emissions related to fuel consumption for district services. 7Includes emissions related to (but not limited to) miscellaneous uses such as transformers, medical imaging and other medical equipment, elevators, escalators,

off-road electric vehicles, laboratory fume hoods, laundry equipment, coffee brewers, water services, emergency generators, combined heat and power in commercial buildings, manufacturing performed in commercial buildings, and cooking (distillate), plus residual fuel oil, propane, coal, motor gasoline, kerosene, and marketed renewable fuels (biomass).

8Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems. 9Commercial trucks 8,501 to 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight rating. 10By convention, the direct emissions from biogenic energy sources are excluded from energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The release of carbon from

these sources is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time. If, however, increased use of biomass energy results in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, a net positive release of carbon may occur. Accordingly, the emissions from biogenic energy sources are reported here as an indication of the potential net release of carbon dioxide in the absence of offsetting sequestration.

- - = Not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2016 are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run highrt.d120816a. Projections: EIA,



Table 20. Macroeconomic indicators (billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

Indicators

2016

Projections

2025

2040

2050


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan


and technology


Plan

Real gross domestic product ....................................... 16,652 20,680 20,733 28,146 28,167 34,076 34,160Components of real gross domestic product Real consumption ........................................................ 11,522 14,494 14,534 20,062 20,083 24,664 24,730 Real investment ........................................................... 2,816 3,933 3,946 5,563 5,572 6,959 6,984 Real government spending .......................................... 2,919 3,043 3,046 3,597 3,596 4,015 4,014 Real exports ................................................................. 2,114 3,260 3,267 5,791 5,792 7,801 7,828 Real imports ................................................................. 2,692 4,029 4,036 6,858 6,869 9,416 9,449 Energy intensity (thousand Btu per 2009 dollar of GDP) Delivered energy .......................................................... 4.30 3.66 3.67 2.77 2.78 2.43 2.44 Total energy ................................................................. 5.79 4.87 4.92 3.64 3.69 3.14 3.17 Price indices GDP chain-type price index (2009=1.00) ..................... 1.12 1.34 1.34 1.83 1.83 2.27 2.26 Consumer price index (1982-4=1.00) All-urban .................................................................... 2.40 2.97 2.97 4.23 4.24 5.38 5.37 Energy commodities and services ............................. 1.87 2.75 2.69 3.97 3.91 5.02 4.97 Wholesale price index (1982=1.00) All commodities ......................................................... 1.85 2.25 2.24 2.83 2.82 3.29 3.28 Fuel and power ......................................................... 1.44 2.17 2.14 3.08 3.05 3.89 3.86 Metals and metal products ........................................ 1.93 2.24 2.24 2.43 2.43 2.60 2.60 Industrial commodities excluding energy ................... 1.93 2.24 2.24 2.74 2.74 3.12 3.12 Interest rates (percent, nominal) Federal funds rate ........................................................ 0.42 3.10 3.13 2.96 2.92 2.97 3.05 10-year treasury note ................................................... 1.73 3.80 3.78 3.68 3.66 3.62 3.64 AA utility bond rate ....................................................... 3.65 5.74 5.71 5.66 5.64 5.68 5.71 Value of shipments (billion 2009 dollars) Non-industrial and service sectors ............................... 24,364 30,276 30,379 40,817 40,849 49,003 49,200 Total industrial .............................................................. 7,453 9,233 9,264 11,609 11,593 13,876 13,903 Agriculture, mining, and construction ........................ 2,079 2,626 2,636 3,170 3,177 3,615 3,632 Manufacturing ........................................................... 5,374 6,606 6,627 8,439 8,416 10,261 10,271 Energy-intensive ..................................................... 1,898 2,208 2,212 2,531 2,527 2,852 2,846 Non-energy-intensive ............................................. 3,476 4,398 4,415 5,908 5,889 7,409 7,425Total shipments ............................................................. 31,817 39,509 39,642 52,426 52,442 62,879 63,103 Population and employment (millions) Population, with armed forces overseas ....................... 324 348 348 381 381 399 399 Population, aged 16 and over ...................................... 259 281 281 311 311 328 328 Population, aged 65 and over ...................................... 50 66 66 82 82 88 88 Employment, nonfarm .................................................. 144 159 159 174 174 182 182 Employment, manufacturing ......................................... 12.1 13.5 13.6 12.3 12.3 11.9 11.9 Key labor indicators Labor force (millions) .................................................... 159 171 172 188 188 198 198 Nonfarm labor productivity (2009=1.00) ....................... 1.06 1.22 1.22 1.58 1.58 1.87 1.87 Unemployment rate (percent) ....................................... 4.88 4.41 4.32 4.43 4.47 4.65 4.56 Key indicators for energy demand Real disposable personal income ................................ 12,663 16,135 16,170 22,105 22,123 26,560 26,621 Housing starts (millions) ............................................... 1.26 1.86 1.87 1.76 1.75 1.78 1.79 Commercial floorspace (billion square feet) ................. 90 99 99 116 116 127 127 Unit sales of light-duty vehicles (millions) ..................... 17.5 17.8 17.8 18.8 18.9 20.1 20.2

GDP = Gross domestic product. Btu = British thermal unit. - - = Not applicable. Sources: 2016: IHS Markit, Macroeconomic, Industry, and Employment models, August 2016. Projections: U.S. Energy Information Administration, AEO2017

National Energy Modeling System runs highrt.d120816a and hr_no_cpp.d020917a.

table 1. total energy supply, disposition, and price ... · total energy supply, disposition, and...

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