TABLE-TOP EXERCISE:TABLE-TOP EXERCISE:

INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIOINDIAN OCEAN SCENARIOMAKRAN SOURCEMAKRAN SOURCE

Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0

Training Programme in Seismology and Tsunami WarningsTraining Programme in Seismology and Tsunami WarningsKuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-25 August, 2006Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-25 August, 2006

Male, Maldives, 27-31 August, 2006Male, Maldives, 27-31 August, 2006Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006

TWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIESTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

• SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSESANALYSES

• SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS & SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS & ANALYSESANALYSES

• DECISION-MAKING PROCESSESDECISION-MAKING PROCESSES

• MESSAGE CREATION & MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATIONDISSEMINATION

CHECKLISTIndian Ocean Events - Initial BulletinEQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION

Locate Epicenter (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) OMake/Examine Location Map (nquake) ODetermine Depth (nquake) ODetermine Magnitude (Mwp) OIssue Observatory Message O Start Mm (email Papeete if Mw>7), SMAG, Theta OSelect Message Type based on Criteria OCall in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) OCompute/Print/[Map] ETAs if a Warning or TIB O

CHECKLIST - Indian Ocean Events - Initial BulletinEQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION

Locate Epicenter (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) OMake/Examine Location Map (nquake) ODetermine Depth (nquake) ODetermine Magnitude (Mwp) OIssue Observatory Message O Start Mm (email Papeete if Mw>7), SMAG, Theta OSelect Message Type based on Criteria OCall in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) OCompute/Print/[Map] ETAs if a Warning or TIB O

Checklist - Indian Ocean EventsISSUE MESSAGE

Run Message Software (for Indian Ocean) O Check Message before Sending:

Bulletin Number (should be 1) OMessage Type OWhich Places Put in Watch Status OAdd Statement for Anything Unusual OEarthquake Parameters OEstimated Arrival Times O

Checklist - Indian Ocean EventsENSURE MESSAGE DISSEMINATION

Check all Messages Went OutResend if Necessary

GTS (lp –d nmc nmcmsg [hnmcmsg]) OFax/Telex (lp –d tlx tlxmsg) ONWW (lp –d nww nwwmsg [hnwwmsg]) OWeb (/bin/ftp2webpac and /bin/ftp2webhaw) OEmail (cat wmsg | /bin/mailx bulletin ) OEMWIN (call NWSTG if NMC okay) OHFO Fax (/bin/fax2hfo now) O

Immediate Call Down List O

Checklist - Indian Ocean EventsCONTINUE FOR WATCHES, TIB w/Tsunami potential

Call Closest CountriesConfirm they got our message OAsk if they have any reports O

Display and Monitor Nearest Sea Level Gauges OTrigger DARTS at least 30-min ahead of their ETAs OReview Historical Data O

Re-assess MagnitudeMonitor Mm, SMAG OCheck for Tsunami or Slow Earthquake (Mw vs Ms, Theta) O

Monitor email for other EQ params and CMTs O

Mw less than 6.5(Mw: Moment Magnitude)

Observatory Message Only

Mw 6.5 to 7.0 Tsunami Information

Bulletin

Mw 7.1 to 7.5 Local Tsunami Watch

Mw 7.6 to 7.8 Regional Tsunami Watch

Mw > 7.8 Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch

INDIAN OCEAN BULLETIN CRITERIAINDIAN OCEAN BULLETIN CRITERIA

Makran Accretionary margin, location of 1945 Tsunami in this region

Island Arc Volcanics Mud Volcanoes

1945

AMohktari et al., 2005

Mohktari et al., 2005

SCENARIO TIMELINESCENARIO TIMELINE

0:000:00 Mw 9 Earthquake OccursMw 9 Earthquake Occurs0:100:10 PTWC Seismic Alarms TriggeredPTWC Seismic Alarms Triggered0:14 PTWC Initial Location/Magnitude0:14 PTWC Initial Location/Magnitude Mw 8.1Mw 8.10:150:15 PTWC Observatory MessagePTWC Observatory Message

0:17 PTWC Basin-Wide Tsunami Watch 10:17 PTWC Basin-Wide Tsunami Watch 10:18 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 10:18 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 1

Broadband Seismic Stations contributing data to PTWC

P-wave TT8 min

SCENARIO TIMELINESCENARIO TIMELINE

1:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 21:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2 Mw 8.9 revisedMw 8.9 revised1:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 21:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2

2:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 32:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 32:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 32:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3 Masirah SL gauge has not arrived Masirah SL gauge has not arrived (eta 2:23) - TWC may wait to issue(eta 2:23) - TWC may wait to issue

Station Xmit Arrival Transmit

Masirah 15 01:23:29 01:27:00Salalah 15 02:28:17 02:40:00Hanimaadhoo 60 03:36:28 04:01:00Male 15 04:12:04 04:15:00Gan 60 04:23:18 05:01:00Colombo 15 04:45:36 04:54:00Pt.LaRue 60 05:33:36 05:41:00Lamu 30 05:59:00 06:03:00Zanzibar 15 06:47:03 06:49:00Rodrigue 15 08:09:43 07:13:00Port Luis 15 08:23:45 07:31:00

Calculated Tsunami Arrival TimesCalculated Tsunami Arrival Times

Near-shore shallow bathymetry increases travel time

MasirahMasirah MaleMaleGanGan

SCENARIO TIMELINESCENARIO TIMELINE

3:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 43:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4 Salalah Sea level gauge (eta 3:26)Salalah Sea level gauge (eta 3:26)3:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 43:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4 4:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 54:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5 Reading at Hanimaahdoo (eta 3:26)Reading at Hanimaahdoo (eta 3:26) Male Sea level gauge (eta 4:12)Male Sea level gauge (eta 4:12)4:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 54:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5 with Updated Amplitude Forecastswith Updated Amplitude Forecasts

Gan (eta 4:23, but transmit 5:01Gan (eta 4:23, but transmit 5:01 since 60 min transmit rate)since 60 min transmit rate)

Station Xmit Arrival Transmit

Masirah 15 01:23:29 01:27:00Salalah 15 02:28:17 02:40:00Hanimaadhoo 60 03:36:28 04:01:00Male 15 04:12:04 04:15:00Gan 60 04:23:18 05:01:00Colombo 15 04:45:36 04:54:00Pt.LaRue 60 05:33:36 05:41:00Lamu 30 05:59:00 06:03:00Zanzibar 15 06:47:03 06:49:00Rodrigue 15 08:09:43 07:13:00Port Luis 15 08:23:45 07:31:00

Calculated Tsunami Arrival TimesCalculated Tsunami Arrival Times

SCENARIO TIMELINESCENARIO TIMELINE

5:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 65:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 65:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 65:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6

Sea Level Readings - MaldivesSea Level Readings - Maldives Diego GarciaDiego Garcia

6:19-10:00 6:19-10:00 Addtl Sea Level Readings fr IO StationsAddtl Sea Level Readings fr IO Stations

Hourly Bulletins from PTWC / JMAHourly Bulletins from PTWC / JMA

For Interim IOTWS System:For Interim IOTWS System:• Basin-wide Watch => Basin-wide Watch => Monitor sea levels across entire IOMonitor sea levels across entire IO• No Warnings issued (so No Cancellation)No Warnings issued (so No Cancellation)

Makran Source

Modeling Tsunami Propagation

THANK YOUTHANK YOU