tackling gun crime: what research can tell us chris lewis, dan silverstone university of portsmouth...
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Tackling Gun Crime: Tackling Gun Crime: What research can tell usWhat research can tell us
Chris Lewis, Dan SilverstoneChris Lewis, Dan SilverstoneUniversity of PortsmouthUniversity of Portsmouth
Jayanthi SanthanamUniversity of Liverpool
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Sources of information
• Home Office Statistics• Home Office Policy analyses (eg TGAP)• Police intelligence• ACPO sources (eg NBIS)• Academic research:
Interviews with offendersFocus groups (offenders, community, police)Modelling
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Portsmouth research
• Brent Research (interviews with offenders: police: local databases)
• Home Office Research (80 interviews: London, Manchester, Nottingham, Birmingham)
• MAGNET Modelling (Manchester)
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Gun culturesMorality of firearm possession• Half indicated firearm possession acceptable under some
circumstances • Useful distinction between acceptability and need
“I wouldn’t say there is ever going to be a time when it’s acceptable but there’s always a need… The need is when you’re under pressure and you’re threatened.” (West Midlands)
• Inability of police to protect them“If your life was in danger… You know the police are not on your side and there’s nothing you can do… That’s self-defence, right. Then you have to protect yourself, any way you know of.” (London)
• Worst case scenario considerations“…I’d rather carry it with a chance of getting a prison sentence than getting killed, or something happen to me where I get badly hurt.” (Nottinghamshire)
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Gun cultures
Plural Gun Cultures: two ‘ideal types’
Reflects ‘changing criminal culture’ theme
1. Instrumental gun culture
– Guns used only for offensive criminal purposes
2. Complex gun culture
– Role of firearms more generalised
– Three key themes:• Ascendancy of criminal role models
• Market in illegal drugs: systemic violence
• Cultures of gang membership
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Policy proposals
1. Tackling the market in illegal firearms
• Converted imitation firearms• Realistic imitation firearms• Ammunition• Circulation of illegal firearms• Tackling attitudes
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Policy proposals
2. Criminal justice system
• Sentencing• Victim/witness protection• Policing• Civil law
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Policy proposals
3. Diversion from crime
• Perceptions about drug dealing• Criminal role models• Employment• Enhance youth service provision• Gang disruption and mediation
4. Harm reduction in the criminal economy• Seek to minimise levels of violence within the criminal
economy
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What is a Model?
Representation of Reality - e.g., aircraft
SIMPLE MODELS CAN BE OF HELP!
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PRISON (P) RESISTANT (R)
SUSCEPTIBLE (S)
USER (U)
birth
NAIVE (N)
Depends on the availability of guns, G.
NSPUR
MODEL
death
death
death
death
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What can we learn from our model?
PrisonUser
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INTERVENTION 2
TARGETING SUSCEPTIBLE IN THE COMMUNITY
e.g. targeting non-firearm offenders to reduce escalation of activities to gun use
PRISON (P) Resistant (R)
Susceptible (S)
USER (U)
birth
Naïve (N)
Depends on the availability of guns, G.
NSPUR
MODEL
death
death
death
death
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What is the effect of interaction between susceptibles and users in prison?
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WHAT IF A SMALL PROPORTION OF GAOLED SUSCEPTIBLES REOFFEND AS USERS ON RELEASE?
Non-firearm offenders learn how to acquire & use guns
PRISON (P) Resistant (R)
Susceptible (S)
USER (U)
birth
Naïve (N)
Depends on the availability of guns, G.
NSPUR
MODEL
death
death
death
death
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Effect of interventions on gun crime
• Large Reduction
– Targeting non-firearm offenders
– Gun Control
– Increasing conviction or detection rate
– Reduce interactions in prisons
• Little effect
– Interventions for ALL naives (e.g. school children)
– Reducing re-offence rate