tailored analytics steven eldred director orange county css
TRANSCRIPT
Tailored Analytics
Steven EldredDirector
Orange County CSS
Objectives
Analytics in Orange County■ Vision■ iScore■ Predictions/ Level of Care■ What Makes iScore Different?■ How iScore Fits into the Process■ Methodology■ Model Trend Examples■ Success
Vision
“Social Good is Always Significant”
■ CSE 20/20: Family Wellbeing and Parental Success✷ Vision of CSE 20/20✷ Caseworkers✷ Community Partners✷ iScore
■ Drivers✷ Data-driven approach (mostly)✷ Balanced with professional expertise✷ Broad view of Customer needs✷ Focus on individual✷ Preventative and Proactive
Assume Goodwill
■Parents want to participate in their child’s life
■Parents want to support their children
■To a significant extent, past program policies have alienated and discouraged parents
Lessons From Other Fields
Ernesto Sirolli began his adult life working for non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) in Africa, helping people in developing nations.
For the last 30 years he has assisted entrepreneurs with micro-financing and development projects in Australia and around the world.
[video]
Assume Goodwill
■“The most important thing is passion. . . The passion that a man has for his own personal growth is the most important thing.”
■“I do something very different – I shut up and listen to them.”
■“You have to figure out how to get these people to come and talk to you.”
iScore in a Nutshell
Predicts long-term family wellbeing
Highlights areas of opportunity
Explores “what if” scenarios
Gives conceptual framework for care
Methodology
■Motivated by needs of our families
Individual and Case level
■Relied on years of prior OC research
Guideline and Barriers Study Date of Event Survey Community Resource Center Survey Research in other fields
■Inspired by caseworkers process Easy-to-use and interactive Quick but thorough assessments
Methodology – Data Sample
■Focused on making data usable Included Data Repository & CS1257 Analytical File (one record per case/over 400
variables) 30,000 cases sample size Financial data Outside data
■Recalibrate Model Family Wellbeing is defined by:• NCP ability to pay• NCP motivation• CP need for support• Socioeconomic Factors
iScore
✷ Level of Care✷ Attributes✷ What if
Scenarios✷ Areas of
Opportunities
Predictions / Level of Care
What Makes iScore Different
How Does iScore Fit Into the Process
iScore
Model Trend Examples
75%
33% 30%
1%
Seedling Sapling Young Mature
Unemployed
$16,598
$7,896
$1,563 $26
Seedling Sapling Young Mature
Median Arrears Amount
44%
21%18%
12%
Seedling Sapling Young Mature
Median ROTW(Ratio of Order to Wage)
35%
20%
13%
4%
Seedling Sapling Young Mature
Criminal History
Success
Predictions are accurate
Caseworkers use tool regularly
Makes positive impact on families
Success
Family Wellbeing & Parental Success:
Caseworker Community Partners iScore
