talktalk interim results fy17 - welcome to talktalk ...25c0a831-9ead-42d3-871d... · marketing...
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TalkTalk
Interim Results FY17
Summary
Strong H1 performance: EBITDA £130m (+44% year-on-year); interim dividend maintained at 5.29p
Material improvements in customer experience: Q2 churn reduced to 1.43% (Q216: 1.58%)
High levels of re-contracting following launch of Fixed Low Price Plans
Compelling value offer and further improvements in service to drive a return to growth in FY18
York fibre to the premise trial to be extended to whole city beginning in Spring 2017
FY EBITDA expected to be towards the lower end of our £320m-£360m guidance
Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16 and broadly covered by operating FCF
2
H1 Business review
3
Q2 performance
Churn significantly lower year-on-year; lower recruitment activity ahead of
new proposition launch
4
• H1 revenue -1.1% year-on-year in line with expectations
• Q2 -1.7% year-on-year
• Q2 churn significantly better year on year (Q216: 1.58%)
• Consequence of lower broadband and TV recruitment activity in Q2 ahead of launch of new pricing and propositions
• Continued growth in Fibre and Mobile
Q2 Q1
Revenue £455m £447m
On-net net adds -20k -9k
On-net churn 1.4% 1.4%
Fibre net adds +40k +36k
Mobile net adds +46k +48k
TV net adds -33k -23k
H1 performance
5
Leverage
YoY Revenue Growth
£697m
£188m
£670m
£208m
£912m £902m
H1 FY16 H1 FY17
-3.9%
-1.1%
+10.6%
On Net
Corporate
FY16 H1 FY17
£27m Off Net £24m
-11.1%
2.8x
2.6x
EBITDA
Dividend per share
H1 FY16 H1 FY17
£90m
£130m
9.9% Margin
14.4% Margin
5.29p
H1 FY16
5.29p
H1 FY17
+44.4%
H1 FY16
2.8x
Broadband Base Stabilising through strong wholesale performance and reducing churn in retail base
6
Wholesale Broadband Base
737k 771k
830k
899k
H2’15 H1’16 H2’16 H1’17
Wholesale
• Continued consistently strong growth in profitable business
Retail
• H116: decision to disconnect 72k non-paying customers
• H216: impacted by 95k due to the cyber attack
• H117 slowed gross retail connections before launch of Fixed Low Price Plans
• Churn coming down significantly and quality of base rising
• Expect retail base to stabilise and return to growth in FY18
3,440k
H2’15
3,327k
H1’16
3,166k
H2’16
3,068k
H1’17
Retail Broadband Base
On Net Churn
1.4%
1.6%
2.1%
1.3%
1.4% 1.4%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
FY16 FY17
Continuing strong Mobile and Fibre take-up
7
% base Mobile
% base Fibre
% base TV
21%
30 73
142 207
308
479
578
704
780
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17
0
230
557
917
1,217
1,414 1,439 1,389 1,333
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17
37% 22%
117 175
236 284
348
464
596
699
793
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17
• Strong take-up of TV App by customers who don’t have a set top box
• Flexible viewing on multiple devices is driving greater engagement and higher Net Promoter Scores
• Completed multi-year renewal of full Sky content
• New propositions driving good attachment rates and strong engagement
TV Content
SAC reduction from lower volumes and efficient distribution
8
SAC & Marketing Costs
Lower volumes in H1:
• Pulled back on retail gross adds in Q2 ahead of launch of new plans
• Continuing growth in B2B data connections
Reducing costs per add from:
• Growing digital sales and upsell
• Improved efficiency in digital channels
• Next Best Action driving more efficient use of marketing spend
Sustainable reduction:
• H2 and beyond will see higher volumes but online and channel optimisation benefits will continue to deliver lower CPA
£34m
£18m
£9m
H1’16 H1’17
TTC
Volumes CPA
Phasing
£3m
TTB
Volumes
Continuing benefit £152m
£94m
Note: not to scale
The value for money provider of connectivity for everyone
9
Making TalkTalk Simpler delivering better customer experience and lower costs
Value for money quad play for customers
Value for money data for businesses
Stable household broadband base
Rapid RGU growth
Rapid market share growth in B2B data
Disruptive Innovation
Network Leverage
Value for Money
Products
Scale
Simple Systems & processes
Great Value for
Everyone
Scale brings structural cost advantage
Cost / Gb continuing to fall
Integrated fixed and mobile network
Fibre to the Premise long term potential
Value for money products
10
THE RIGHT PRICE A RELIABLE
SERVICE
SIMPLE AND FAIR
PRODUCTS
GREAT VALUE
Always been the
case
Triple and Quad play customers save even more
Real progress with Making
TalkTalk Simpler
Customer satisfaction up
Churn down
Fixed Low Price Plans
Existing customers get the same deals
Fast and Faster
simple packages
66% 64% 64%
70% 71%
74% 75%
77% 78%
81% 80%
50%
52% 52%
55% 56%
58% 60% 60%
61%
65% 63%
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16
CS ASAT
Tech ASAT
ASAT up 23%
Making TalkTalk Simpler is delivering
11
Material Churn Improvement Satisfaction with Service
Ofcom Complaints % customers agreed "TalkTalk is a brand I trust"
Source: TNS Brand Tracker
46
47 47 47 47
48
50
54
Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
TT ComplaintsComplaints down 44%
1.4%
1.6%
2.1%
1.3%
1.4% 1.4%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
FY16 FY17
Churn down y-o-y
Keeping TalkTalk Simpler
Underpinning our journey towards a self-serve quad play operating model
12
Delivering new systems and processes
• Network modernisation
• DLM and DNS enhancements
• Backhaul upgrades
• Contact centre repair overhaul
• Join/move essential fixes
• Simple, clear, fair bill and payments
• Next Best Offer
• CRM / process management enablers
Leveraging and scaling Effortless self-serve and quad play
• Network transformation
• Self-serve Repair as default
• Join/move overhaul
• Tail of billing and payments fixes
• Next Best Offer optimisation
• Tail of processes onto new CRM / retire legacy CRM (including complaints)
• Contact centre footprint and partner model
FY16 – FY17 FY17 – FY18 FY18 & beyond
• Dark fibre
• In-home connectivity: monitoring support and CPE
• Email outsourced
• Mobile service integration with triple play
• Self-serve by default: online/apps resilience, performance and scalability
• Extended data-driven personalisation
H1: £17m delivered
FY savings of £35m-£40m
Cumulative £90m+
Extending our network cost advantage
13
Modest new topology investment to maintain and improve our network cost advantage
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26
Opex - Existing Backhaul Opex - Dark Fibre
High level backhaul cost and evolution
LOCAL METRO
METRO COLLECTOR
COLLECTOR CORE
CORE END USER LOCAL
NGM
NGM
NGA Customer
NGE
NGE
Targeted Dark Fibre 90%
Coverage All Dark Fibre Post Dark Fibre
No Dark Fibre Some Dark
Fibre All Dark Fibre Pre Dark Fibre • Upgraded backhaul and improved forecasting
eliminated congestion
• More customers get the speeds they pay for on our network than any other
• New access topology will improve resilience and enhance experience
• Extension of dark fibre capacity from core network to collector (edge) will drive costs down as bandwidth expands exponentially
£40m planned investments over 3 years will
expand capacity and drive down our long term
backhaul costs by £20m p.a.
Fixed Low Price Plans
14
5 Key Principles
1. Prices fixed for the duration of the contract
2. Existing customers can get the same deals as new customers
3. Legacy price increase and tariff rationalisation to encourage re-contracting to new plans
4. Simpler product structure, all products begin with quad play components
5. Customers in control of their bundle
Based on in depth customer insight
15
4.0
3.8
2.7
2.5
2.0 Price
Reliability
Faster speed
Other
TV content
Ranking of reasons to choose Broadband provider 1 – most important, 5 – least important
Source: TalkTalk research
What is most important to you in choosing a Broadband provider?
Price is critical
Which of the following would make you more likely to trust your Broadband provider?
Customers increasingly see through gimmicks and hidden charges
69
74
75
84 Existing customers will always get the same brilliant deals that new customers can get
The price you see is the price you pay. No extra charges, like installation fees or line rental
All broadband packages are unlimited: however much you use, there will be no unexpected charges
Price freeze on all prices and promotions for at least next 18 months
Source: Trinity McQueen Loyalty Propositions Research, April 2016, QB1 QC1
Scores reported show relative importance indexed to an average score of 100
Drivers of trust in broadband provider
16
Prices correct 01/11/16
Total 18 month Package Cost – Unlimited Broadband
Price Comparisons – post launch of Fixed Low Price Plans
FAST
FASTER
FAST +
Plus TV
FASTER +
Plus TV
£413
£511
£546
£644
£443
£722
£818
£1,097
£639
£795
£762
£892
£626
£627
£633
£633
£414
£535
£358
£545
£402
£451
Cheaper vs
TT
Expensive
vs TT
Unlimited
Broadband
Fibre Unlimited
Original TV &
Unlimited
Broadband
Original TV &
Unlimited Fibre
Unlimited
Broadband &
Weekend Calls
Unlimited Infinity
1 & Weekend
Calls
Starter TV &
Unlimited
Broadband &
Weekend Calls
Starter TV &
Unlimited Infinity
1 & Weekend
Calls
SuperFibre 50 &
Calls
SuperFibre 50 &
Calls
Player Bundle
Mixed Bundle
Unlimited
Broadband & No
Calls
Unlimited Fibre &
No Calls
ADSL Broadband
& Weekend Calls
Unlimited Fibre
(38Mbs) &
Weekend Calls
Unlimited Standard
BB 17
Unlimited Fibre 38
Prices calculated without vouchers and excluding safety features
Voicemail £0.00 £1.25 £0.00 £2.25 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £1.00
Caller Display £0.00 £0.00 £2.25 £1.75 £0.99 £1.75 £0.00 £1.00
Anon caller
reject £0.00 £4.00 £2.70 £5.80 £4.00 £1.75 £2.50 £1.00
Last caller
barring £0.00 £3.35 £2.25 £4.75 £0.00 £1.75 £0.00 £1.00
Monthly Total £0.00 £8.60 £7.20 £14.55 £4.99 £5.25 £2.50 £4.00
18 month Total £0 £155 £130 £262 £90 £95 £45 £72
Calling and Safety Features
Prices correct 01/11/16
TalkTalk For Everyone
18
Fixed price plans Family Photo
An important step in brand transformation
Early results are encouraging
19
Re-contracting onto Fixed Low Price Plans stronger than we expected
Short term effects
• ARPU dilution mitigated by:
• Strong attachment rates for calling boosts, TV and fibre
• New customers joining on higher ARPUs than legacy cohorts on deep discounts
• Improving quality of revenue mix in base
• Lower churn
• 10 times more customers have re-contracted on the new plans than in an average month
• Majority of re-contracting customers either out-of-contract or nearly out-of-contract ie in highest churn segments
• Percentage of base in contract growing by 2% per week – strong forward indicator of reduced churn
We are building a more loyal and higher quality customer base
Medium term benefits
• Higher than expected re-contracting activity driving short term ARPU dilution
• Simplification of deeply discounted legacy tariffs driving short term churn
7.1 10.2
13.7
17.4
21.6
26.2
30.7
35.1
39.3
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16 H2'16 H1'17
TalkTalk Business growing strongly, driven by data revenues
20
Corporate Revenue Sustained revenue progress
High growth and margin Ethernet & EFM Lines (‘000)
Phone and BB (retail and wholesale)
Legacy Voice
Carrier TalkTalk Group
Data & Next Gen Voice
Gross Margin
Growth
H1'16 H1'17
Data
Carrier
Voice
+10.6%
+38.9%
+30.9%
-22.8%
£188m
£208m
87
91
88 89
94
104
93 95 95
101 100
108
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Wide suite of connectivity products
21
FTTC ADSL
2+
1Gb
Ethernet
100 Mb
Ethernet
Eo
FTTC EFM
Broadband products Ethernet products
£20 £40 £70 £300 £1,200
Wholesale – Partner Managed/IPVPN – Partner/Direct
Contended
Standard or Enhanced Care levels
Services Delivered over Copper
Uncontended
Business Grade SLA’s & Ethernet Presentation
Fibre Delivery
SIP can be provisioned across all TalkTalk Business Connectivity
Dark Fibre
EoFTTP EoG.Fast
FTTP G.Fast
Existing products Future products
Material room for TalkTalk Business to grow
• TalkTalk has c10-12% market share
• Taking c16% of Openreach new connections
• Significant growth opportunity as market
expands
22
National & Metro Ethernet Market IPVPN Market
0k
50k
100k
150k
200k
250k
300k
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
320k
340k
360k
380k
400k
420k
440k
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• TalkTalk has a c2% share
• Opportunity to take market share in segments
not well served by incumbent providers
Source: Ovum (Latest UK specific forecast, July 2015), Kable (2015) and TTB internal estimates/weighting
Ovum Service End Points Ovum Service End Points
Building an Inside Out Mobile Network
23
Progress in H1 FY17
• Mobile base now 793k, 22% of the base
• 500Mb data SIM offer included in all Broadband packages
• New billing system deployed in live environment
• Our own TalkTalk 4G SIMS successfully provisioned on Telefonica O2 network
• Ofcom approved use of TalkTalk’s Dect Guardband spectrum for 4G in September
• Femto home trials successful
Potential to build 4m strong mobile business
Forward timeline
Live trials begin
Billing migration testing
Billing migration
Network migration
Thick Build
Femto rollout
Nov 16
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q2 18
18/19
FY19
Selling 4G
Concluded successful phase 1 trial of FTTP in York
24
Progress to date Next steps
• 14k homes passed at build cost of £417
• 2,500 TalkTalk and Sky customers taking service (18% of homes passed)
• Excellent customer feedback
• ASAT at 82%
• Churn to date is 1 customer
• 100% uptime since launch (MPF would expect 50+ faults over same period)
• Complete build of FTTP across York:
• 40k more homes, £20m cost over 18 months from Spring 2017
• JV with CFH (67%:33%)
• Sky to become long term Wholesale customer
• Can see significant operational improvements to further reduce costs and improve marketing efficiency, which we will trial in phase 2 in York
Will build out to rest of York in FY18/19
Summary
25
Strong H1 performance: EBITDA £130m (+44% year-on-year); interim dividend maintained at 5.29p
Material improvements in customer service: Q2 churn reduced to 1.43% (Q216: 1.58%)
TalkTalk Business continuing to show strong growth through Data
High levels of re-contracting following launch of Fixed Low Price Plans
Compelling value offer and further improvements in service to drive a return to growth in FY18
FY EBITDA expected to be towards the lower end of our £320m-£360m guidance
Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16 and broadly covered by operating FCF
H1 Financial Review
26
Summary Profit & Loss
27
H1’17 H1’16 Year on Year
£’m £’m
Headline Revenue 902 912 -1.1%
Gross Profit 469 487 -3.7%
Margin 52.0% 53.4%
Operating costs (245) (245) -
SAC & Marketing (94) (152) -38.2%
Headline EBITDA 130 90 +44.4%
Margin 14.4% 9.9%
Profit after tax 35 11 +218.2%
Headline EPS (Basic) 3.7p 1.2p +208.3%
Dividend per share 5.29p 5.29p -
Revenue and ARPU
28
• Decline in average on net base offset by
pricing
• 8,600 additional data lines driving Corporate
Data growth
• Legacy voice decline offset by growth in
VOIP proposition (+35%)
• Carrier growth expected to reverse in H2 so
that FY overall will be flat y-o-y
• Impact of pricing in June and October 2015
• Growth in Fibre and Mobile
• Offset by voice usage decline and mix of
Retail vs Wholesale customers
£912m
£902m
£27m
£3m
£18m £21m £17m
H1'16 On-Net Off-Net Data Legacy Voice Carrier H1'17
Corporate
£28.08 £28.05
£0.62
£0.50
£0.83
£0.26
H1'16 Pricing &Proposition
Triple / QuadPlay
Voice Usage Mix H1'17
Gross Margin
On-net
- Lower weight of Retail revenues versus
Wholesale revenues in the on-net mix
- Lower voice revenues (cyber gesture)
- £7m MTTS benefits
Corporate
- Growth in high margin data revenue (8.3% of
total revenues vs 5.9% in H116)
- Greater weight of low margin carrier revenues in
the mix (8% vs 6% in H116) and lower year-on-
year voice revenues
H2 to recover:
- Pricing
- Reversal of the trend in carrier growth
- Procurement savings
29
53.4%
52.0%
2.2%
1.8%
1.7%
H1'16 On Net Data Voice & Carrier H1'17
Corporate
Opex and SAC
Opex:
- Flat year-on-year with network and IT investment
offset by lower costs to serve and MTTS savings
SAC & Marketing:
– Lower volumes
– Lower Costs per Add from improved online
journeys, better targeted upselling activity and
channel optimisation
– Phasing – marketing spend deferred ahead of new
propositions launch
– Higher TTB broadband and Data connections
30
245 245
152
94
3
34
18 9
H1'16 Volume ChannelOptimisation
Phasing B2B & Data H1'17
SAC &
Marketing
Opex
Continuing benefit
Summary Cashflow
31
£’m H1 FY17
EBITDA 130
Working Capital (59)
CAPEX (99)
Operating Free Cash Flow (28)
Interest and Tax (11)
Free Cash Flow (39)
Acquisitions (14)
Exceptional Items (15)
Dividends – FY16 Final (100)
NET CASH FLOW (168)
Net Debt * (847)
Net Debt / LTM EBITDA 2.8x
* Net of derivatives £33m
Working Capital
• Timing of payments on distribution agreement
• Phasing of stock payments
• Prepayment of marketing spend ahead of launch of new
propositions
• Expect to mostly reverse in H2
Exceptional items down year-on-year
• Higher than P&L charge (£11m) due to utilisation of PY
provision
• Expect FY exceptional items of £30-£35m
Dividend in line with guidance
• FY17 Final dividend expected to be in line with FY16
• Broadly covered by Operating Free Cash Flow
Leverage
• In line with leverage at end of H116
• Expect strong cashflow generation through H2 to drive
deleveraging towards medium term target of 2.0x
Capex
32
• H1 Capex (net of asset disposals) reflects
• phasing effect of c£30m investment that was planned for
H216 but delayed by cyber attack; and
• underlying H1:H2 weighting
• Timing difference will return to normal levels by year end
• Expect phasing to drive lower capex in H2 (vs H1 and H216)
• Capex for the full year expected to be £130m-£135m, net of
proceeds from asset sales
• Slightly higher than planned due to systems investment to
support new propositions and rollout of mobile systems
£99m
Software
£33m
Hardware
£36m
Innovation
£15m
PPE
£7m
£91m
Software
£43m
Hardware
£43m
Innovation
£13m
H1’16 H1’17 H2’17
£30m-£35m
EBITDA outlook
• Back book re-pricing
• Boost attachment rates
• New acquisition volumes
• SAC impact of TV and fibre take-up
• ARPU dilution from re-contracting
• Churn from legacy cohorts
33
• Quality of base and revenue
• Customer engagement
• Churn
• Success of re-contracting activity drives FY17 EBITDA towards lower end of £320m - £360m
guidance and in line with market consensus
• Final dividend in line with FY16 and guidance
• Year-end leverage (net debt/EBITDA) to be significantly lower than at end of FY16
Impact of Fixed Low Price Plans
Medium term benefits Short term impact
Appendices
34
Reconciliation of reported to statutory profits
35
£m H1’17
HEADLINE
H1’17
EXCEPTIONALS
H1’17
STATUTORY
EBITDA 130 (11) 119
Depreciation (35) (35)
Amortisation (30) (5) (35)
Share of JV’s (5) (5)
Interest (14) (14)
PROFIT BEFORE TAX 46 (16) 30
Tax (11) 2 (9)
Effective Tax Rate 24%
PROFIT AFTER TAX 35 (14) 21
Basic EPS 3.7p 2.2p
DPS 5.29p 5.29p
Our Network Infrastructure today
Significant national scale through a combination of owned and leased assets
Price regulated copper and ethernet
Fibre
Owned equipment in 3,000+ Unbundled Exchanges
Owned equipment in regional Collector Nodes to extend Core Network
Owned Equipment in Collector Ring - 10Gbps optical circuit or dark fibre supplied by BT, SSE, GEO, VM and Eircom
Core National Optical Network 2 separate national networks with 8Tbps (Huawei) and 1,6Tbps (Infinera) capacity
Exchange Backhaul 1-10Gbps optical circuits supplied by BT Openreach or Virgin media
Dark fibre sourced under long term leases in a competitive market with no capacity constraints
Street cabinet
Fibre to the Cabinet
Exchange
Collector Node
Ethernet
Total Other Costs
37
KPIs
38
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1
On-Net Base (m)
Broadband & Voice 3.162 3.295 3.402 3.570 3.656 3.775 3.728 3.658 3.638
Broadband Only 0.642 0.575 0.526 0.490 0.449 0.402 0.369 0.338 0.329
Total 3.804 3.870 3.928 4.060 4.105 4.177 4.097 3.996 3.967
On-net Churn (p.m.) 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4%
Mobile (m) 0.117 0.175 0.236 0.284 0.348 0.464 0.596 0.699 0.793
Fibre (m) 0.030 0.073 0.142 0.207 0.308 0.479 0.578 0.704 0.779
TV (m) 0.000 0.230 0.557 0.917 1.217 1.414 1.439 1.389 1.333
Ethernet and EFM lines 7,100 10,200 13,700 17,400 21,600 26,200 30,700 35,100 39,300
Total Broadband (m) 4.043 4.063 4.076 4.196 4.221 4.283 4.189 4.072 4.036
Revenue (£m)
On-net 573 597 612 642 648 685 697 702 670
Off-net 95 83 69 59 46 41 27 28 24
Corporate 160 162 162 178 177 198 188 196 208
Total 828 842 843 879 871 924 912 926 902
On-net ARPU (£) 25.27 25.93 26.16 26.79 26.45 27.57 28.08 28.91 28.05